MakingMoreIntelligentBetsInsightsonFutureInnova0onOpportuni0es29March2017 Theworld’sleadingopenforesightprogram

ForesightandInsightManyseethatbeCerforesightandinsightarepivotal

capabili0esthatenableleadingcompaniestobothmakemoreintelligentbetsandsuccessfullyscalethemtohavemajorglobalimpact

ForesightandInsight

Collabora0onandSharing

Incuba0onnotIsola0on

Characteris5csofBolderInnova5on

Inspira0on

Predic0on

Roadmaps

AlternatePaths

Obscurity

MakingInnova0onBets

LookingForwardsOrganisa0onsincreasinglywanttoiden0fyandunderstandboththe

an0cipatedandunexpectedchangessothattheycanbebeCerpreparedforthefutureandseenewopportuni0esearly.

ShellGameChanger|TechnologyFutures2004/7

FutureAgendaTheFutureAgendaistheworld’slargestopenforesightprogram.

Runasaglobaldialogueacrossallcon0nents,itaccessesmul0pleviewsofthenextdecadesowecanallbebeCerinformedandsos0mulateinnova0on.

FutureAgendainNumbersThefirstFutureAgendaprogrammeengagedawiderangeofviewsin

25countries.FutureAgenda2.0hasdoubledtheface-to-faceinterac0onandsignificantlyraisedonlinesharing,debateanddiscussion.

FutureAgenda1.01HOST16TOPICS25COUNTRIES50WORKSHOPS1500ORGANISATIONS

FutureAgenda2.050HOSTS24TOPICS35COUNTRIES120WORKSHOPS5000ORGANISATIONS

2015EventLoca0ons

EverythingConnectedOver1trillionsensorsareconnectedtomul0plenetworks:everythingthatcanbenefitfromaconnec0onhasone.Wedeliver10,000xmoredata100xmoreeffec0velybutareconcernedaboutthesecurityoftheinforma0onthatflows.

ImbalancedPopula5onGrowthAgrowingpopula0onaddsanotherbillionpeoplebutitisalsorapidlyageing:achildbornnextyearwilllive6monthslongerthanoneborntoday.Whilemigra0onhelpstorebalance,increasingdependencyra0oschallengemany.

KeyResourceConstraintsEconomic,physicalandpoli0calshortagesofkeyresourcesincreaseanddriveincreasingtensionbetweenandwithincountries.AsweexceedtheEarth’snaturalthresholds,foodandwaterreceiveasmuchfocusasoilandgas.

ShiSingPowerandInfluenceThecentreofgravityofeconomicpowercon0nuesshiaingeastwards,backtowhereitwas200yearsago.Recentsuperpowersseektomoderatethepaceofchangebutthereali0esofpopula0onandresourceloca0onsareimmoveable.

AffordableHealthcareTheescala0ngcostofhealthcareisfurtherstressedbytheneedtosupporttheoldandthechronicallyill.Spending20%ofGDPonhealthcareisseenasunsustainablesoharddecisionsaretakenaroundbudgetsandpriori0es.

AirQualityRisingairpollu0oninmanyci0esiskillingpeopleandbecomesavisiblecatalystforchangingmind-setsandpoliciesacross

health,energy,transporta0onandurbandesign.

AutonomousVehiclesTheshiatofullyautonomoustransportisanevolu0onviatruckplatoonsonhighwaysandsmallurbandeliverypods.Connectedcarscreatethenetworkandtestthetechnologiesfortheeventualrevolu0onarydriverlessexperience.

UrbanObesityMassurbanisa0on,reducedac0vityandpoordietsareaccelera0ngtheriseofobesity.Levelsofobesityinmostci0esaregrowingfastandtheassociatedhealthcareburdenwillsoonaccountfor5%ofglobalGDP.

DataOwnershipIndividualsrecognizethevalueoftheirdigitalshadows,privacyagentscurateclients’datasetswhilepersonaldatastoresgiveustransparentcontrolofourinforma0on:Weretainmoreownershipofourdataandopttoshareit.

TheChangingNatureofPrivacyAsprivacyisapublicissue,moreinterna0onalframeworksseektogoverntheInternet,protectthevulnerableandsecurepersonaldata:Thebalancebetween

protec0on,security,privacyandpublicgoodisincreasinglypoli0cal.

TruthandIllusionTheInternethasdemocra0sedknowledgeandchangedthenatureofwhowetrustandwhy.Asconfidenceinlargeorganisa0onsdeclinesthesearchfortrustworthy

alterna0vesevolves.Whatwebelieveischanginghowwebehave.

Educa5onRevolu5onBroaderaccesstoimprovededuca0onactsasamajorcatalystfor

empowerment,sustainedeconomicgrowth,overcominginequalityandreducingconflict.Weneedaneduca0onsystemfitforthedigitalrevolu0on.

RisingYouthUnemploymentWithunemploymentratesover50%insomena0ons,accesstoworkisarisingbarrier.EspeciallyacrossNorthAfrica,theMiddleEastandsouthernEurope,alostgenera0onof100myoungpeoplefailstogainfromglobalgrowth.

ShrinkingMiddleWhiletheglobalmiddleclassgrows,intheWestincreasinginequalityforsomedrivesarela0vedeclineinmiddle-incomepopula0ons.Coupledwith

theerosionofsecurejobs,theUSinpar0cularseesasteadilyshrinkingmiddle.

Accelera5ngDisplacementClimatechange,conflict,resourceshortages,inequalityandpoli0calelitesunableorunwillingtobringaboutnecessarychangealltriggerunprecedentedmigra0ontotheNorth.Overthenext50years,asmanyas1billionpeoplecouldbeonthemove.

Built-inFlexibilityThepathtoaconnected,accessibleanddistributedinfrastructureisfraughtwithcomplex,costlyandriskyissues:Upgradingandrepurposingsystemstomakethemmoreopenpluson-goingmaintenanceneedsignificantresources.

FloodedCi5esThevastmajorityofourci0esarenotpreparedforflooding.Manydistrictsandhouseholdscannolongergetfloodinsuranceandareinjeopardy.

It’sgoingtogetworsebeforeitgetsbeCer.

Plas5cOceansThereareincreasinghighlevelsofman-madepollu0oninmanyoftheworld’sseasandliCleactuallydisappears.

By2050therewillbemoreplas0cthanfishintheworld’soceans.

HumanTouchAsserviceprovisionandconsump0onbecomesevermoredigital,automatedandalgorithmic,thosebrandsthatcanoffermoreemo0onalengagement

andhuman-to-humancontactbecomeincreasinglyaCrac0ve.

WorkingLongerPeoplearehavingtoworkforlongertosupportlongerre0rements.

Flexibleworkingprac0cesandpoliciesareemerging,butsomeemployerscon0nuetoremainambivalentaboutolderworkers.

AfricaGrowthWithalandmassbiggerthanIndia,China,theUSandEuropecombined,fewdoubtthescaleoftheAfricancon0nentanditsresources.However,un0l

recently,onlysomehaveseenitasthegrowthmarketthatitisfastbecoming.

DecliningGovernmentInfluenceNa0onalgovernments’abilitytoleadchangecomesundergreaterpressurefrombothaboveandbelow-mul0na0onalorganisa0onsincreasinglysettheruleswhileci0zenstrustandsupportlocalandnetworkbasedac0ons.

Eco-Civilisa5onOverthepast40yearsChinahasgrownapace,mostlywithoutconcernfor

long-termenvironmentalimpacts.However,nowfacedwithmajorchallenges,abrightlightofsustainabledevelopmentisemerging.

StandardsDrivingTradeInterna0onalregula0onisprogressivelyaimedatfreeinguptradeandmaking

itsimplerandlessbureaucra0c–butthereareanumberofagreements,standardsandprotocolsthatsomeareseeingasincreasinglyconstraining.

DigitalMoneyCashcon0nuestobegraduallyreplacedbydigitalmoney,providing

consumerswithmoreconvenienceandchoice–andorganisa0onswithlowercosttransac0ons.Wideradop0onenablesnewofferstoproliferate.

FullCostIncreasingtransparencyofsociety’srelianceonnature,intensify

requirementsforbusinesstopaythetruecostoftheresourcesprovidedby‘naturalcapital’andsocompensatefortheirnega0veimpactonsociety.

SpeedtoScaleGreaterglobalconnec0vity,growingconsumerwealthandbroaderreachallcombinetoacceleratethe0meto1bncustomersanda$10bnvalua0onforstart-upsandnewcorporateventuresalike.

SomeFutureInnova5onOpportuni5es

MinimisingFoodWaste30-50%ofourfoodiswastedeitherinthesupplychainorinconsump0onandcouldfeedanother3billion.Op0misingdistribu0onandstorageindevelopingcountriesandenablingbeCerconsumerinforma0oninotherscouldsolvethis.

Op5misingLastMileDeliverySeamless,integratedandsharedlast-miledeliveryreplacesinefficient

compe00onandduplica0onofgoodsdistribu0on.Greaterefficiencyinmovingthingsisasimportantasinmovingpeopleandsoamajorfocusforinnova0on.

EnergyStorageStorage,andpar0cularlyelectricitystorage,isthemissingpieceintherenewablesjigsaw.Ifsolved,itcanenabletrulydistributedsolar

energyaswellasacceleratetheelectrifica0onofthetransportindustry.

BuildingDataMarketplacesDataisacurrency,ithasavalueandaprice,andthereforerequiresamarketplace.Anecosystemfortradingdataisemergingandanything

thatisinforma0onisrepresentedinanewdatamarketplace.

GovernanceofMachinesAutoma0onspreadsbeyondtradingandmanagingsystemicrisk.Asweapproachtechnologysingularity,autonomousrobotsand

smarteralgorithmsmakeethicaljudgmentsthatimpactlifeordeath.

DeeperCollabora5onPartnershipsshiatobecomemoredynamic,long-term,democra0sed,

mul0-partycollabora0ons.Compe0toralliancesandwiderpublicpar0cipa0ondriveregulatorstocreatenewlegalframeworksforopen,empathe0ccollabora0on.

Organisa5on3.0NewformsofflaCer,project-based,collabora0ve,virtual,informal

organisa0onsdominate-enabledbytechnologyandamobileworkforce.Assuchthenatureofworkandtheroleoftheorganisa0onblurs.

FutureAgenda84BrookStreetLondonW1K5EH+442030088141futureagenda.org

Theworld’sleadingopenforesightprogram

Whatdoyouthink?JoinIn|Addyourviewsintothemix

www.futureagenda.org