making progress in an uncertain world 2nd october 14

Making Progress in an Uncertain WorldCarolyn Limbert, Principal Planner, Harmonic Ltd, October 2014

Outline

● The Realities of Delivery

● The Landscape• Socio-Political• Structural• Emergent

● Proactive Decision Management

● 5 things to take away from the webinar

On Paper…

Adapted from; (Dombkins, 1997)

Scope: WHATObjectives are to be

achieved

Delivery: HOWTo implement objectives

Low Uncertainty

HighUncertainty

Low Uncertainty

Initiation

Concept

Definition

Mobilisation

Implementation

Closure

The Reality…

Adapted from; (Dombkins, 1997)


achieved


Low Uncertainty

HighUncertainty

Low Uncertainty

Closure

InitiationConceptDefinitionMobilisation

Implementation

Complex Projects - Back to BasicsNew view on PM

Performance

CostTime

Performance

Time Cost

Context Financing

(Strategic Highway Research Program, 2012)

“The intrinsic complexity of projects, in part, is driven by political, social, technological and environmental issues, as well as tight fiscal pressures, end user expectations which may change dramatically during the life of a project, and government instability.” (ICCPM, 2012)

The Landscape

6

Requirements

What are the common challenges present in a complex

project landscape?

Funding / Finance

Uncertainty Culture

Assumptions Trades

Change

Length of Time

Decision Making

Optimism Unrealistic Solutions

Lack of Maturity Geography

BehavioursSystems of Interests

Regulatory

Organisational Capability

Ambiguity

Risk Stakeholders Dependencies

Utilising concepts from (Maylor, Turner, Murray-Webster, 2013)

Socio-Political Complexity

7

Requirements


project landscape?

Funding / Finance

Uncertainty Culture

Assumptions Trades

Change

Length of Time

Decision Making




Regulatory


Ambiguity



Perception

Structural Complexity

9

Requirements


project landscape?

Funding / Finance

Uncertainty Culture

Assumptions Trades

Change

Length of Time

Decision Making




Regulatory


Ambiguity



Systems ThinkingSystem Engineering

Enterprise Environment Management

Enterprise Processes

Investment Management

System Life Cycle Process Management

Resource Management

Quality Management

Project Processes

Planning Assessment Control

Decision Making

Risk Management

Configuration Management

Information Management

Technical ProcessesStakeholder

Requirements Definition

Requirements Analysis

Architectural Design

Implementation Integration

Verification Transition Validation

Operation Maintenance

Disposal

Enterprise Environment Management

Agreement Processes

Investment Management

Process Guidelines

Systems Thinking

● You cannot optimise a system by separately optimising its components

● Focus on defining customer needs and required functionality early in the development cycle

● Understand the whole problem before you try to solve it

Requirements Prioritisation

Must have

• The Project cannot deliver on the target date without this• There is no point deploying the solution without this requirement• The solution will not be legal / safe / fit for purpose

Should have

• The requirement is important but not vital• The requirement may be painful to leave out but the solution is still viable• The requirement may need some form of workaround

Could have

• The requirement is wanted or desirable but less important• If the requirement is left out, the impact is minimal

Wont have*

• Project team has agreed it will not deliver this requirement• Requirement is not needed for the solution, and is a low priority

Agile DSDM – MoSCoW Prioritisation

* This time…

Emergent Complexity

13

Requirements


project landscape?

Funding / Finance

Uncertainty Culture

Assumptions Trades

Change

Length of Time

Decision Making




Regulatory


Ambiguity



Influence vs. Control(INCOSE UK Capability Working Group)

Influence

Control

Influence – Control Spectrum

PurposeFocus

Value Solution

Enterprise Capability Service Product

Influence

Control

Influence

Control

Influence


achieved


Low Uncertainty

HighUncertainty

Low Uncertainty

Initiation

ConceptConcept

DefinitionDefinition

Mobilisation

Implementation

Closure


achieved


HighUncertainty

Low Uncertainty

Closure

InitiationConceptConceptDefinitionDefinitionMobilisation

Implementation

Now What?

Facilitating Proactive Decisions

Level of Business Impact

Skill Levels Required

What Happened?

Why Did it Happen?

What is Likely to Happen?

What Should I Do About It?

Descriptive Analytics

Diagnostic Analytics

PredictiveAnalytics

Prescriptive Analytics

Forward Looking Indicators

Actuals vs. ForecastActuals vs. Baseline

Scenario Planning

Management Inform

ation

Proactive Decision Making

Making Progress

Objective Criteria / Steps

Draft Document

Peer Review

Update Document

Sign-off Document

Issue

Create & Review Document

Issue

Objective Criteria / Steps;

50% Draft Document Complete20% Peer Review Complete20% Update Document Complete10% Sign-off Loop Complete

Draft Document

Peer Review

Update Document

Sign-off Document

Issue

Draft Document

Peer Review

Update Document

Sign-off Document

Issue

Infeed Infeed

Suitable for roll-up utilising Steps / Objective Criteria

Unsuitable for roll-up utilising Steps / Objective Criteria

Summary

● Map your Environment and validate perceptions

● Understand your priorities

● Change happens – Influence / Control

● Do things right and do the right things

● Subjectively measure progress

5 things to do as a result of this webinar…

Any Questions?

Carolyn LimbertPrincipal [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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