Malthus and Population

Thomas Malthus

• Lived in England 1766 – 1834

Malthus and population

Why did he say that?

When Malthus lived, England was here in the demographic transition model. Why does that matter?

Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern?

• Declining birth rates– Reasons for declining birth rates

• Reliance on economic development• Distribution of contraceptives

– Reducing birth rates with contraception

Family Planning

Figure 2-30

Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern?

• World health threats– The epidemiologic transition

• Stage 1: Pestilence and famine– The Black Plague– Pandemics

Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern?

• World health threats– The

epidemiologic transition

• Stage 2: Receding pandemics

– Cholera and Dr. John Snow

Figure 2-31

Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern?

• World health threats– The epidemiologic transition

• Stage 3: Degenerative diseases– Most significant: Heart disease and cancer

• Stage 4: Delayed degenerative diseases– Medical advances prolong life

Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern?

• World health threats– The epidemiologic transition

• A possible stage 5: Reemergence of infectious diseases?

– Three reasons why it might be happening:» Evolution» Poverty» Improved travel

90% of deaths caused by 6 diseases.

• HIV/AIDS• Malaria• Pneumonia

• Measles• Tuberculosis• Diarrhea

The Most Lethal Infectious Disease: AIDS

Figure 2-33

Map of malaria outberaks

Pneumonia mortality rates

Measles Vaccinations

Tuberculosis Cases

Diarrhea Deaths

Paul Ehrlich – The Population Bomb (1968)

Quotations

• We've already had too much economic growth in the US. Economic growth in rich countries like ours is the disease, not the cure.- Paul Ehrlich, author of Population Bomb and Population Explosion.

Quotations

• The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970's and 1980's hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now.- Paul Ehrlich - the first sentence of his 1968 ``The Population Bomb''

Quotations

• This vast tragedy, however, is nothing compared to the nutritional disaster that seems likely to overtake humanity in the 1970s (or, at the latest, the 1980s) ... A situation has been created that could lead to a billion or more people starving to death.- Paul Ehrlich, "The End of Affluence" (1974), p.21

Quotations

• Hundreds of millions of people will soon perish in smog disasters in New York and Los Angeles...the oceans will die of DDT poisoning by 1979...the U.S. life expectancy will drop to 42 years by 1980 due to cancer epidemics.- Paul Ehrlich, 1969 in Ramparts.

Quotations

• Our position requires that we take immediate action at home and promote effective action worldwide. We must have population control at home, hopefully through changes in our value system, but by compulsion if voluntary methods fail.- Paul Ehrlich

Quotations

• The first task is population control at home. How do we go about it? Many of my colleagues feel that some sort of compulsory birth regulation would be necessary to achieve such control. One plan often mentioned involves the addition of temporary sterilants to water supplies or staple food. Doses of the antidote would be carefully rationed by the government to produce the desired population size.- Paul Ehrlich