Malthus’s theory

The debate about population and

resources originated in the work of an

English named Thomas Robert Malthus

(1766—1834), whose theory of

population relative to food supply

established resources as the critical

limiting condition upon population

growth.

Population growth grows geometrically while food

production increases arithmetically

Year Population Food Supply

1 100 100

20 200 200

40 400 300

60 800 400

80 1600 500

100 3200 600

120 6400 700

140 12800 800

160 25600 900

Population

would

therefore

grow faster

than food

supply

wrong

close

carrying capacity: the maximum number of users that

can be sustained by a given set of natural resources.

In some places Malthus

was right and others he

was wrong:

How is Malthus right?

Population continues to rise in

certain areas of the world because

• Some people have limited access

to contraception

• Medical Revolution

• Some countries are still in stage 2

of the demographic transition with

a declining death rate

In many places there is not enough food

(world hunger, widespread famine)

• Failure to adopt modern agricultural

techniques

• Environmental degradation

(desertification, overgrazing,

clearcutting, soil erosion)

How has Malthus

been wrong?

Population growth has NOT been

rising in many places

• declining birth rate

• expanded use of contraception

• political policies (one child)

• education/empowerment of women

• Many countries in 4th, &/or 5th

stages DTM

There is enough food

• mechanization, use of chemicals,

irrigation, Expansion of agricultural

lands

• (new technologies is too vague)

There has also been an increase in trade: ability

to distribute food to areas of need is much

greater than during Malthus’ time

• Improvements in transportation (highways,

containerization, refrigerated trucks)

• Improvements in food preservations

(refrigeration, packing, processed food)

3 Sides to the Population Debate

1. Neo-Malthusians (Antinatalist): High fertility

rate is one of the biggest problems facing the world

today

Developing countries have large numbers of

children and youth that will swell the

childbearing ranks for years to come

(Demographic momentum) causing economic,

social and environmental problems.

Negative economic aspects of rapid

population growth:

• Poverty (low GDP per capita)

• Unemployment

Negative Social aspects of rapid

population growth:

• Population growth may

outstrip a country’s ability to

provide social services to its

entire population.

• Poor education

• Housing shortages (squatter

settlements)

• Inadequate health care

• Crime

• War (caused by overuse/lack

of resources)

Suicide bombers not Islam

• Inadequate amount of fresh water

• Inadequate sanitation

Negative environmental aspects of rapid population growth

• Air pollution

• Global warming

• ozone depletion

• Acid rain

• Over fishing

• Loss of habitat from

Deforestation

• Loss of habitat from growth of cities

A forest once stood here, and Sumatran tigers hunted wild pigs and deer in its glades. As forests are cleared

for oil palm plantations, like this one near Longkib, Indonesia, tigers migrate in search of wild prey—or

target farm animals.

• Erosion (major problem as farmland is

overworked)

Desertification: Overused semiarid lands that

deteriorate to a desertlike condition

Government policies to address high

fertility rates:

• investments in family planning or

access to contraceptives

• investments in the education of girls

• Improve equality/rights of women

• investments in reproductive and child

health (if infant mortality decrease so

will the natural increase)

1990

• 58.8%

• 21.5

• 16.1

• 21.2

• 8.5

• 12.1%

• 79.4

• 9.4

• 5.4

• 5.2

• 0.5

• 20.5

Asia

China

India

Other Asia

Latin America

Africa

Sub-total

Europe

Former USSR

North America

Oceania

Sub-total

2100

•53.5%

•12.6

•16.7

•24.2

•9.6

•26.2%

•89.3

•3.9

•3.6

•2.8

•0.6

•10.9

Growth in More, Less Developed Countries

.

2. Cornucopians:

Continued progress can be met by

advances in technology.

Fundamentally they believe that

there is enough matter and energy on

the Earth to provide for the

estimated peak population of about

9.22 billion in 2075.

Human creativity and innovation will provide

opportunities for people to overcome the limitations of

their environment.

Hydroponics

Ester Boserup argued

that population

determines agricultural

methods.

Farmers will adopt new

and modern methods to

keep up with demand

caused by an

increasing population

A major point of her book is that "necessity is the

mother of invention". It was her belief that humanity

would always find a way and was quoted saying "The

power of ingenuity would always outmatch that of

demand.”

Cornucopians are often pronatalist: population decline

is the major problem

The world population explosion is a thing of the past.

People should be having more children.

falling fertility rates have caused

• aging populations

• shrinking workforces

• inadequate demand for goods and

services

• intergenerational conflict

• immigration tensions(someone has to

work and pay taxes but they often bring a

different culture).

• And overall economic decline

• Examples: Japan and Europe

Paying for retirement is easy when the

population is growing and people don’t

live long. When it isn’t, there are three

unwanted choices

1. Raise taxes of workers (middle cohort)

2. Decrease benefits

3. Raise retirement age

What government can do to raise fertility rates:

• money for having children or tax breaks

• longer maternity leaves

• subsidized (government pays) day care

• day care at places of work

• shorter work days for women or part time

• telecommuting

Niger 10 million people the country with the

highest fertility rate 7.5 population will double by

2025 20.4 million

48 percent is ages 15 or younger

2 percent over 65

Bulgaria

8.2 million people with

the lowest

fertility rate 1.09

lose 1.2 million people

during the same

period, falling to 7

million.

17 percent under 15

16 percent of all

Bulgarians are ages 65

or older

This is geography: Different parts of the world have different rates of growth

Where people live influences how many children people have.

3. Marxist: Population is a political

issue group:

governments lack the

will to redistribute

wealth or the resources

to reduce poverty

4 Stages of epidemiological transition

Epidemiology is the study of the patterns, causes, and

effects of health and disease conditions in defined

populations

1.The Age of Pestilence and Famine: Where mortality is high

and fluctuating, precluding sustained population growth,

with low and variable life expectancy, vascillating between

20 and 40 years.

2. The Age of Receding Pandemics: Where mortality

progressively declines, with the rate of decline accelerating as

epidemic peaks decrease in frequency. Average life

expectancy increases steadily from about 30 to 50 years.

Population growth is sustained and begins to be exponential.

3. The Age of Degenerative and Man-Made Diseases:

Mortality continues to decline and eventually approaches

stability at a relatively low level. Life expectancy rises and

exceeds 50 years.

4. Age of delayed degenerative diseases: life

expectancy above 70. MDCs