Andrew Bloodworth Head of Science for Minerals and Waste,

British Geological Survey

Malthus revisited? Science and resource limits

Navachab mine, Namibia

Rev Thomas Malthus 1766-1834

‘The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race.’

Global population, 1950-2050, according to different projection variants

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Billio

n

High fertility

Medium

fertility

Low fertility

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2009): World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision. New York

• Food – fertilisers, drinking water, food preparation and packaging

• Energy – vital for all industries, transport, power generation, heating

• Construction – houses, schools, hospitals, shops, offices

• Transportation – roads, railways, airports, cars, buses, trains, ships and aircraft

• Technology and communications – computers, telecommunications, electronic applications

• Globally we produce annually approximately:

– 16 million tonnes copper

– 1.6 billion tonnes iron ore

– 6 billion tonnes coal

Minerals are all around us

“Limits to growth”

•The Coal Question … and the Probable Exhaustion of our Coal Mines (Jevons, 1865)

• Presidents Material Policy Commission (1950-1952)

•The Limits to Growth (The Club of Rome, Meadows et al. 1972) “only 550 billion barrels of oil remained and that they would run out by 1990”

“On borrowed time?” Neo-Malthusian thinking

Perspectives on the ‘Environmental

Limits’ concept (Turner et al. 2007)

Metal stocks and sustainability

(Gordon et al. 2006)

Assessing the long-run availability of

copper (Tilton and Lagos, 2007)

Earth’s natural wealth: an audit

(Cohen, 2007)

Countdown – are the Earth’s mineral

resources running out? Mining Journal (2008)

Peak Minerals

(Bardi and Pagani, 2007)

Peak Minerals in Australia

Giurco et al. 2010

Rare metals getting rarer

(Ragnarsdottir, 2008) Nature

The disappearing nutrient

(Gilbert, 2009) Nature

Reserves

Number Years left =

Annual global consumption

Earth’s natural wealth: an audit (New Scientist)

• Conclusion - antimony “will run out in 15 years, silver

in 10 and indium in under five”

Dynamic reserves

• As the earth is finite, intuitively appealing to consider mineral resources as static

• However, fixed stock approach (years remaining = reserves/consumption) is flawed

• Reserves represent a very small

proportion of crustal resources

• Reserves are dynamic and depend on scientific knowledge and price of target mineral.

• Reserves poor indicator of long-term availability as definition depends on current science, technology and economics

Resources (discovered and undiscovered)

Resources

Undiscovered resources

Reserves

RESERVES - the quantity of a mineral

commodity found in subsurface resources,

which are both known and profitable to

exploit with existing technology, prices

and other conditions

18

20

4

8

12

16

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

20

40

60

80

1987: 39 years 2008: 36 years

2008: 14.4 Mio. t

1960: 4.2 Mio. t

Copper

Mio

. t

year

s

0,4

0,8

1,2

1,6

20

60

100

140

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Mio

. t

year

s

Nickel

1960: 0.34 Mio. t

2008: 1.5 Mio. t

1987: 63 years 2008: 46 years

0

10

20

30

0

200

400

600

t

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

year

s

Indium

1972: 66.4 t

2007: 563 t

1989: 15 years

2007: 19 years

10

30

50

70

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

100

300

500 ye

ars

1.0

00

t Cobalt

1960: 14.734 t

2008: 63,783 t

1988: 125 years 2008: 111 years

Mine production (for indium, refinery production) Data sources: USGS, BGR database, 2009 *Before 1988, the USGS only classified reserves

Static life time of reserve base*

Static life time of reserves

Reserves and long-term availability– the reality

Impact of science on primary resources: New models, new mines

Porphyry revolution: • Lowell, J D & Guilbert, J M (1970) Lateral and

vertical alteration-mineralization zoning in porphyry ore deposits. Economic Geology 65, pp 373-408

Epithermal precious and base metals

• Hedenquist, J W & Henley, RW (1985) Hydrothermal eruptions in the Waiotapu geothermal system, New Zealand - their origin, associated breccias, and relation to precious metal mineralization Economic Geology 80, pp1640-1668

• Hedenquist, JW & Lowenstern, JB (1994) The role of magmas in the formation of hydrothermal ore-deposits Nature 370

(6490):519-527 1994

• Mineral deposit models allow prediction of the location of new targets and are the foundation for exploration and development

Escondida, Chile: 60 % of global copper production now comes from porphyry style deposits

‘Bonanza’ Au, Round Mountain

Mine, Nevada

New frontiers: Where will primary resources come from in the future?

• ‘New’ terranes – Cu in Pakistan and Afghanistan

• Old targets in ‘old’ terranes – Reappraisal of Cu-Co in Zambia/ DRC, Hemerdon tungsten deposit, Devon

• Arctic – Fe ore, base metals, Au and coal

• Seabed - Cu-Zn-Au-Ag in massive sulphide deposits in SW Pacific

Hemerdon,

Devon

Can we keep pace with demand?

• GDP of the 'E7' (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey) will be 25% greater than the G7 by 2050 (PWC forecast).

As well as utilising primary resources we must also:

• Fully utilise resources in anthropogenic environment (recycle and re-use)

• Improve resource efficiency (do more with less)

Global Production of Iron Ore

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Years

Millio

n T

on

nes

Source: BGS Mineral Statistics database

Global Production of Platinum Group Metals

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Year

Kilo

gra

ms

Source: BGS Mineral Statistics database

It’s not easy being green

• Information on metal stocks in society very sparse

• Long residence times restrict availability of ‘resource’

• Recycling rates for many metals (including those needed for environmental technologies) are extremely low

Recycled, 570t,

14%

Lost, 800t, 20%

Still on the road,

2700t, 66%

Fate of total stock of auto catalyst platinum

(Source: Umicore)

2008 Global mined output = 452t (Source: BGS)

End of life global recycling rates for 62

metals (Source: UNEP)

Environmental limits

• How much will our growing usage of earth resources accelerate climate change?

• Can we afford the carbon cost of recovering low grades from primary and secondary materials?

• Decarbonisation of resource use presents a major scientific, technical and economic challenge

South Crofty tin mine,

Cornwall 1904

Environmental change and limits to growth: Climate impact of resource use

• Global cement industry produces 5% of all anthropogenic CO2

• Solvent extraction refinery at Skorpion zinc mine uses 20% of Namibia’s electricity

Electrolitic zinc recovery, Skorpion

Energy efficiency

• Breaking rocks is hard work − significant energy is wasted (heat & noise) in grinding

− breaking rock in tension, microwave-assisted grinding

Sources: EIA 2001, 1998

Manufacturing Energy

Consumption Survey; U.S.

DOE 2002, Energy and

Environmental Profile of the

U.S. Mining Industry

Industrial energy intensity

vs. energy consumption

1000

En

erg

y In

ten

sity (

Th

ou

sa

nd

Btu

/$ G

DP

)

Energy Consumption (Trillion Btu)

Petroleum

Chemicals

Paper

Food processing Tobacco/beverages

Furniture

Leather Machinery and Computers

Wood

Transportation

Fabricated Metals

Textiles/apparel

Plastics

Rubber

Electrical Printing

1

10

100

10 100 1000 10000

Energy-

Intensive

Industries

Mining

Low Energy Extractive Metallurgy

2km2 bio-heap leach pads at

Talvivraara nickel mine, Finland – low

grade ore spends 5 years on the pads

to recover 90% of Ni

Economics drives science

• ‘When demand exceeds supply, the price goes up. When the supply exceeds demand, the price goes down’ The Wealth of Nations, published in 1776

• Burgeoning demand will increase commodity prices • High prices are a powerful driver for scientific

innovation and attitudinal change (new primary resources/ higher recycling rates/ substitution/ increased resource efficiency)

• Does the current price of raw materials reflect their environmental cost?

Adam Smith

1734-1790

Zinc price trend

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Jan-2

005

Jul-2005

Jan-2

006

Jul-2006

Jan-2

007

Jul-2007

Jan-2

008

Jul-2008

Jan-2

009

Jul-2009

Jan-2

010

Zinc cash LME daily off icial price

Source: Metal Bulletin, 2009a.

US

$ p

er

ton

ne

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Recycled aggregates as % total production

(Source: Mineral Products Association)

EU average

France

Germany

Ireland

Italy

Spain

Sweden

Great Britain

Impact of

environmental

taxation?

Malthus revisited • Malthus’ understanding of ‘production of

the earth’ did not take future science, innovation and their economic drivers into account – ‘babies are born with brains as well as mouths’

• Growth trajectory of human population and living standards mean that science is vital in extending resources (primary, secondary) and doing more with less

• Limits to growth exist, but not physical exhaustion Malthus envisaged, rather that the carrying capacity of our environment will restrict our ability to utilise resources

• Scientific endeavour also needed to break link between resource use and human-induced environmental change