managing or muddling money in the psid frank stafford national data sets workshop april 9, 2008
DESCRIPTION
Managing or Muddling Money in the PSID Frank Stafford National Data Sets Workshop April 9, 2008. Some Uses of the PSID. Repeated Cross Sections (LTV’s in the pre-Subprime) Panel and Repeated Panel (Subprime Crisis; 1989-1995 v 1999-2005) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Managing or Muddling Money in the PSID
Frank Stafford
National Data Sets Workshop
April 9, 2008
Some Uses of the PSID
• Repeated Cross Sections (LTV’s in the pre-Subprime)
• Panel and Repeated Panel (Subprime Crisis; 1989-1995 v 1999-2005)
• Long Life Course (early health effects, persistent mismanagement of $)
• Intergenerational (A point in time, year matching, life course matching, pensions of Baby Boomers and their dads)
Some Uses of the PSID
• Repeated Cross Sections (Wages, 1980-2005 for men and women) Role of dual earners
• Asset Holdings African-American subprime Crisis; 1989-1995 v 1999-2005)
• Pensions of Hispanics, African Americans• Intergenerational (A point in time, CDS/TA,
year matching, life course matching)
New Measures
• Time Diary (in CDS and pilot in Elderly Couples)
• Health; early childhood health calendar• Psychological and Individually Based (K-6,
rushed)• Dynastic, smoothing section
Regular, Diary ‘Seasonal’ Patterns
Personal Care, Weekday, by Sex
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 0.04 0.08 0.13 0.17 0.21 0.25 0.29 0.33 0.38 0.42 0.46 0.5 0.54 0.58 0.63 0.67 0.71 0.75 0.79 0.83 0.88 0.92 0.96
Time
Shar
e
Younger Males Younger Females Older Males Older Females
Learning from the basic diary path
Education and Training, Week-end, by Race
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0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0 0.04 0.08 0.13 0.17 0.21 0.25 0.29 0.33 0.38 0.42 0.46 0.5 0.54 0.58 0.63 0.67 0.71 0.75 0.79 0.83 0.88 0.92 0.96
Time
Shar
e
Younger White Younger Black Older White Older Black
Education and Training, Weekday, by Race
0
0.5
1
0 0.08 0.17 0.25 0.33 0.42 0.5 0.58 0.67 0.75 0.83 0.92
Time
Shar
e
Younger White Younger BlackOlder White Older Black
YOU CAN SOON BUY Calendar and Time Diary Methods
in Life Course Research
featuring Hurd-Rohwedder, Belli-Stafford, Kahneman-Schwarz, Wil Dijkstra, Arthur Stone, Brian Rowan,
David Almeida, Mieko Yoshihama, Polly Phipps, and othersForthcoming mid 2008
Author Marketing Questionnaire
PSID EHC 2005, 2003, 2007
Fraction of Sample Not Transitioning
0.82
0.84
0.86
0.88
0.9
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1
jan_2 feb_1 feb_3 mar_2 apr_1 apr_3 may_2 june_1 june_3 jul_2 aug_1 aug_3 sep_2 oct_1 oct_3 nov_2 dec_1 dec_3
Men 2002 Men 2004 Women 2002 Women 2004
EHC METHODS
• Provides structure of timelines and domain themes that reflect the structure of autobiographical memory
• Facilitates the use of three memory retrieval mechanisms to more completely and accurately reconstruct the past– Top-down associations– Sequential associations– Parallel associations
• Allows the use of a more naturalistic narrative approach to remembering
• Encourages motivation to remember as the inherent cueing mechanisms lends retrieval to be more productive
PSID 2003 EHC instrument
LIFE COURSE PILOT
• Retrospective and panel agreement – With number of lifetime marriages excellent in both conditions
(EHC kappa = .84, Q-L k = .92, z = -2.22)• EHC slightly underreported
– 6.1% to 0.3% for CQ– With number of years in cohabitations
• Approximately 80% of Rs in both conditions exactly matched • No tendency to over- or under-report in either condition• EHC led to significantly stronger correlation (r = .54) with panel
reports in comparison to CQ (r = .15)– With number of years unemployed
• Poor agreement; levels of underreporting equally high in both conditions
– EHC: 60.2%; CQ: 58.1%• EHC led to a significantly stronger correlation (r = .34) with panel
reports in comparison to CQ (r = .17)
PSID Childhood Health Calendar
• Appears to work with no major field and interviewing problems
• Data from CHC aligns with cross sectional disease patterns (e.g. measles, polio)
• In principle can recover overlapping conditions and health occurrences
• Early life events help recall (family changes)
SCREEN SHOT CHC
CDS-TA Learning How to Implement a More
Complete Life CourseThe adult children revolution, 1968 v 2007Following CDS II and III to age 18-25+TA Has Been Successful 2005, 2007 (pre- Split off data – very extensive)Dual Mode – OFUM/TA, HEAD+WIFE/TA
RESEARCH FUNCTIONALITY• On-Line Data Center (DC)• ‘Student’ Tutorials• Family Identification Mapping Systems• (FIMS = ID mapfiles) and IG Tutorial (#6)• On line cross year index and codebooks• Major DC restructuring in 2005 (again!)• New Editsystem to expedite processing • (‘You can impute anything’… F.T. Juster)• Unfolding brackets – but low use (good)
LCAA of The Elderly(Campbell Viciera)
• Stock holdings x age x era• Business equity x age x era• Leveraged mortgages?• Cash flow speculators?• Rich enough to take risks?
OLDER, BUT WISER (STOCKS)?
0.0
5.1
.15
.219
84 M
ean
Sto
ck o
wne
rshi
p (%
of p
ortfo
lio)
20 40 60 80Age of Head
1984
0.0
5.1
.15
.219
99 M
ean
Sto
ck o
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p (%
of p
ortfo
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20 40 60 80Age of Head
1999
0.0
5.1
.15
.220
05 M
ean
Sto
ck o
wne
rshi
p (%
of p
ortfo
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20 40 60 80Age of Head
2005
OLDER, BUT WISER (BUSINESS)?
0.0
5.1
.15
.219
84 M
ean
Bus
ines
s ow
ners
hip
(% o
f por
tfolio
)
20 40 60 80Age of Head
1984
0.0
5.1
.15
.219
99 M
ean
Bus
ines
s ow
ners
hip
(% o
f por
tfolio
)
20 40 60 80Age of Head
1999
0.0
5.1
.15
.220
05 M
ean
Bus
ines
s ow
ners
hip
(% o
f por
tfolio
)
20 40 60 80Age of Head
2005
SUBPRIME RECRUITS?
PENSION COVERAGE (PRE-RETIRED)
1999/2005 NW NP DB DC BOTH Total NW 3.23% 1.73% 0.29% 0.29% 0.10% 5.64% NP 9.11% 31.18% 4.06% 4.64% 1.41% 50.40% DB 2.96% 5.21% 6.31% 2.52% 2.42% 19.41% DC 1.72% 5.96% 1.84% 3.84% 1.57% 14.93%
BOTH 1.50% 2.42% 3.15% 1.27% 1.28% 9.62% Total 18.51% 46.50% 15.64% 12.57% 6.77% 10,884
Income to Census Needs Standard of the Third Age (65-79), Then (86) and Now (01)
By Self-reported Health Status Entire Sample
Excellent Health
Very Good Health
Good Health
Fair Health Poor Health
1990 2001 1990 2001 1990 2001 1990 2001 1990 2001 1990 2001
Age group: <=49
4.38 4.54 5.21 5.46 4.54 4.73 3.50 3.89 2.75 2.97 1.70 1.67
Age group: 50-64
6.52 6.67 8.86 8.82 7.91 7.68 5.18 5.94 3.82 4.18 3.54 3.23
Age group: 65-79
4.17 5.50 5.55 9.90 4.23 6.76 4.54 4.37 2.59 4.57 1.94 2.36
Age group: 80+
3.36 3.74 3.89 4.95 4.45 4.18 3.70 3.38 2.30 3.67 2.13 3.38
SPECIAL FILES
• Geospatial• Date of Death• Cause of Death (NDI)• State and ‘Beale’ on Data Center (public
files)• CCD Files 2002/03 CDS and 1997• Most data are on line at psidonline.org