manchester monitor january 2014

Manchester Monitor Quarterly

Jobseekers fall for ninth consecutive monthGVA data highlight GM growth Record month for hotel occupancyGM housing market remains flatCrime volumes continue to decline

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January 2014

Business services to drive growthin GM over next decade

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1 | Manchester Monitor – January 2014

This issue of the Manchester Monitor Quarterly includes a

detailed feature on the latest results from the 2013 edition

of the Greater Manchester Forecasting Model (GMFM). The

focus is on which sectors are expected to lead Greater

Manchester’s (GM) employment growth over the next

decade, which industries will contribute towards increased

economic output and how the conurbation’s occupational

structure will change up to 2023.

From an employment perspective, professional, scientific &

technical activities and administrative & support service

activities are expected to be the largest contributors to jobs

growth in GM over the next decade – with almost 54,000

new opportunities being created in these sectors. The long-

term decline in manufacturing employment is still evident,

although manufacturing’s contribution towards economic

output is expected to grow considerably up to 2023 as the

sector becomes ever more productive in order to remain

globally competitive. The 2013 GMFM results also suggest

that an increasing number of occupations in the conurbation

will be created at the higher and lower ends of the skills

ladder over the coming decade, with fewer at intermediate

levels. This is likely to impact on the type of job opportunities

that become available in GM, and significantly on the level

of qualifications needed by the workforce.

The latest figures from the Department for Work and

Pensions (DWP) show that the number of people claiming

Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in GM has now fallen for the

ninth month in a row. There were 65,400 JSA claimants in

GM in November 2013 – a decline of 3,800 (5.6%) compared

to October 2013, and faster than the declines in the North

West (4.4%) and Great Britain (3.7%). However, as a

proportion of the resident working-age population, 3.7% of

people in GM were claiming JSA in November, which

remains higher than the North West (3.4%) and Great Britain

(2.9%) figures.

GVA data published by the Office for National Statistics

(ONS) show a significant rise in GM’s performance between

2011 and 2012, with the conurbation now the fastest

growing NUTS2 area outside the South East. This is

reinforced by the findings of the latest English Business

Survey (EBS) by the Department for Business Innovation and

Skills (BIS), which show that the economy is continuing to

pick up, with almost half of GM businesses reporting higher

levels of activity in the third quarter of 2013.

The latest data on hotel occupancy reveal that Manchester

city centre achieved its highest monthly average occupancy

figure to date, with an average of 87% occupancy achieved

in November 2013. The Manchester Christmas Markets

contributed considerably to occupancy rates in November,

boosted further by a number of high-profile events such as

the Rugby League World Cup Final at Old Trafford. Civil

Aviation Authority (CAA) data on airport passenger numbers

are also positive, with Manchester Airport handling nearly

1.9 million passengers, a 6.8% (120,000) increase on this

time last year.

Land Registry data show that the average cost of a house

in GM remained flat over the 12 months to November 2013,

increasing by only 0.3% (£290). A typical property now costs

just over £104,000. House prices in the North West also

remained fairly stagnant over the same period, rising by

0.8% (£888), in contrast to the overall growth in England &

Wales of 3.2% (£5,170).

Data from Greater Manchester Police (GMP) for the year

ending December 2013 show that the number of reported

crimes is continuing to fall, declining by 3.7% over the last

12 months. However, there has been a slight fall in the

number of crimes solved in GM, which at 28% is 3.0

percentage points lower than December 2012.

Monitor FocusBusiness services to drive growth in GM over next decade

Manchester Monitor – January 2014 | 2

Monitor Dashboard

Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimants

21.6%since last year

Business Activity

43% of GM firms reportedhigher levels of activity in Q3 2013 when compared to Q2

House Prices

0.3%

since November 2012

Airport Passengers

6.8%

since October 2012

Hotel Occupancy

2.0%ptssince November 2012

Crime Volume

3.7%

since December 2012


JSA Claimants

The number of male JSA claimants in GM fell on a monthlybasis by 5.2% (2,300) to 42,700, while the number of femaleclaimants fell even faster by 6.2% (1,500 to 22,700). On anannual basis, male JSA claimants are now 23.3% lower (a decline of 12,900) and female claimants 18.1% lower (a decline of 5,000) than this time last year.

Youth unemployment (JSA claimants aged 16–24) in GMdecreased on a monthly basis between October andNovember, falling by 1,500 to 16,400. On an annual basis,the number of youth JSA claimants is now 30.0% (7,100)lower than this time last year, above the declines seen in theNorth West (28.0%) and Great Britain (26.5%).

There was a decline in long-term (6 months+) claimants inGM in November 2013 to 30,400, a monthly fall of 2,200(6.8%). On an annual basis, the number of long-termclaimants is now 15.9% (2,000) lower than this time last year,a fall greater than the Great Britain average (15.7%) thoughnot as large as the North West (17.2%).

Vacancies

The Labour Insight database reveals that there were 13,900job openings in GM in November 2013, down by almost half(46.7% or 12,200) on the same month last year. Whilst it isnot clear why there has been such a large fall vacancies datacan be subject to seasonal variations. The highest proportionof vacancies were in professional occupations (32.2% or4,500), followed by associate professional & technical roles(19.9% or 2,800).

Nearly-two thirds of the vacancies in GM (8,900 or 64%) inNovember were found in Manchester, followed by Stockport(919), and Bolton (820).

The top three detailed occupation types in GM in November2013 were: programmers & software developmentprofessionals (600 postings); nurses (600 vacancies); andbusiness sales executives (400 postings).

People Monitor Jobseekers fall for ninth consecutive month

The number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in GM has now fallen for the ninth month in a row. There were65,400 JSA claimants in GM in November 2013 – a decline of 3,800 (5.6%) compared to October 2013, and faster than thedeclines in the North West (4.4%) and Great Britain (3.7%). However, as a proportion of the resident working-age population,3.7% of people in GM were claiming JSA in November, which remains higher than the North West (3.4%) and Great Britain(2.9%) figures.

Total Jobseeker’s Allowance Claimants in November 2013

65,398Decreased by 21.6% year-on-year

Jobseeker’s Allowance - Annual Change

$46.7%

Vacancies - Annual ChangeWomen

$18.1%Men

$23.3%Youth

$30.0%Long-term

$15.9%


ONS GVA Data

Workplace GVA data show that GM South grew at 3.7%between 2011 and 2012 (rising from nearly £33.5m toaround £34.8m), which is in the top 10% fastest growingNUTS3 areas. As it is also one of the largest NUTS3 areas ineconomic size, only Surrey and Inner London (West)contributed more to national GVA growth in absolute terms.The fall seen in recent years in GVA per head compared tothe national average also reversed slightly and GVA per headgrew from 108.2% of the national average to 110.2%. GMNorth’s growth performance grew by 1.5% (rising fromnearly £16m to just over £16.2m) between 2011 and 2012,making it a mid performer compared to other NUTS3 areas.

More broadly, looking at the whole of GM between 2011 and2012, GM was the fastest growing NUTS2 area outside theSouth East (only Surrey, East and West Sussex andHampshire grew quicker), with a 3.1% rise in GVA growth.

English Business Survey

In total, 43% of GM businesses surveyed stated that theirlevel of business activity or output in Q3 2013 was higherthan in Q2. This increasing level of activity was above therises seen in the North West (40%) and England (42%). Inaddition, 47% of firms in GM were expecting activity toincrease in the next quarter, compared to 42% of firms in theNorth West and 44% of firms in England.

20% of GM businesses said that employment had risen inQ3, the same figure as in Q2, with two-thirds stating that ithad remained the same over the quarter. Looking ahead,22% of GM firms expected employment to rise over the nextquarter, with 68% believing it would stay stable. Theemployment picture for the North West and England wassimilar to that of GM; however the challenge in all areas is totranslate the rise in activity into substantial growth in jobnumbers.

GVA data highlight GM growth

GVA data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show a significant rise in GM’s performance between 2011 and 2012,with the conurbation now the fastest growing NUTS2 area outside the South East. This is reinforced by the findings of the latestEnglish Business Survey (EBS) by the Department for Business Innovation and Skills (BIS), which show that the economy is continuingto pick up, with almost half of GM businesses reporting higher levels of activity in the third quarter of 2013.

Absolute change: £3.3bn





0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

Surrey, East and West Sussex

Hampshire and Isle of Wight

Greater Manchester

Eastern Scotland

Outer London

Business MonitorTop five NUTS2 regions by GVA growth 2011 - 2012


Around 100,000 jobs are forecast to be created in GM from2013 to 2023 with employment (including self-employment)estimated to rise by 7.6% to reach 1.43 million. This is abovethe regional growth forecast of 5.7% over the same period,as well as the other four Local Enterprise Partnership areasin the North West:

• Cheshire & Warrington: 7.0%;• Lancashire: 4.7%;• Liverpool City Region: 4.0%; and• Cumbria: 1.1%.

The North West is expected to see almost 200,000 additionaljobs created between 2013 and 2023, meaning GM wouldaccount for half of all employment growth across the NorthWest over the next decade.

In absolute terms, the two largest contributors to the forecastincrease in jobs in GM are professional, scientific & technicalactivities and administrative & support service activities.Combined, these sectors are expected to see nearly 54,000new jobs over the next 10 years. (see Figure 1).

Reflecting the challenges facing the sector nationally, only2,300 news jobs are forecast in financial & insuranceactivities over the next decade in GM – albeit growth of 4.7%.

Wholesale & retail is forecast to create the third highestnumber of jobs in GM in absolute terms, with an increase ofjust under 14,000 over the next ten years – a rise of 6.5%.Construction is just behind this, with a forecast of 13,100additional jobs and much faster relative growth at 17.0%.

Greater Manchester’s economy over the next decade

Results from the latest release of the GM Forecasting Model (GMFM – December 2013) give an indication of expected long-term trends in the economy. GMFM is produced by Oxford Economics for New Economy on behalf of the 10 GM localauthorities, and this month’s quarterly feature provides more detailed analysis of the forecasts. The focus is on which sectorsare expected to lead GM’s employment growth over the next 10 years, which industries will contribute towards increasedeconomic output and how the conurbation’s occupational structure will change up to 2023.

Employment

Figure 1: Top 5 sectors for employment growth in GM, 2013-23

26,900 26,700

13,700 13,100

9,900

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Fore

cast

em

ploy

men

t cha

nge,

201

3-23

Administrative &support service

activities

Professionalscientific &

technical activities

Wholesale & retail trade

Construction Accommodation & food service

activities


Almost 10,000 jobs are forecast to be created in GM’saccommodation & food services sector from 2013 to 2023,an increase of 12.5%. A further 6,300 additional jobs areestimated in arts, entertainment & recreation – growth of22.9%. The increases in these two sectors confirm thecontinuing strengths of GM’s wider visitor & culturaleconomy.

At the opposite end of the scale, the public administration &defence sector is forecast to see a decline of 9,200 jobs overthe next decade – a fall of 15.9%. Education (4,400, or adecline of 3.8%) is also expected to see a decreasingnumber of jobs, although roles in health & social workactivities are forecast to increase slightly by 1,400 (0.8%).

The long-term decline in manufacturing employment isforecast to continue in GM, with 11,700 fewer roles between2013 and 2023. However, the sector will remain a keycontributor to GM’s economic output as manufacturingproductivity continues to rise, which is explored further below.

Gross Value Added

Estimates on gross value added (GVA) in GM suggest thatreal estate activities will experience the largest rise ineconomic output from 2013 to 2023 at £2.7 billion. However,it should be noted that the sector includes ownership ofdwellings and imputed rents, which is likely to skew theresults.

The wholesale & retail trade sector is estimated to see thesecond highest rise in GVA at £2.1 billion, followed byprofessional, scientific & technical activities at £2.0 billion(see Figure 2).

It is important to note that while manufacturing is forecastto see a fall in total employment, its importance to GM interms of economic output is still expected to grow, with itsGVA contribution increasing by £1.5 billion from 2013 to2023.

£750

£930

£1,194

£1,484

£1,529

£1,562

£1,578

£2,037

£2,068

£2,677

£0 £1,000 £2,000 £3,000

Transportation & storage

Human health & social work activities

Construction

Information & communication

Manufacturing

Financial & insurance activities

Administrative & support service activities

Professional, scientific & technical activities

Wholesale & retail trade

Real estate activities

Forecast Change in GVA, 2013-23 (£million)

Figure 2: Top 10 sectors in GM for GVA change (£million), 2013–23


Occupational Structure

In line with results from the 2012 GMFM, the new forecastsagain suggest that an increasing number of roles will becreated at both the high and low ends of the skills spectrumin GM up to 2023.

For higher-skilled roles, managerial & senior official roles inGM are forecast to grow by 9.9% over the next 10 years.Associate professional & technical occupations areestimated to increase by 7.9%, followed by professionalroles at 6.9% (see Figure 3).

At the lower end of the skills spectrum, elementaryoccupations are forecast to rise by 7.1%, followed by sales& customer service roles (6.4%) and then personal servicesoccupations (5.5%).

Intermediate level occupations are also expected to increasein GM from between 2013 and 2023, but to lesser degree.Skilled trades are forecast to grow by 3.2%, whileadministrative & secretarial and process, plant & machineoperative roles are both forecast to increase by 2.0%.

The trends suggested by GMFM continue to indicate thatthe GM labour market is being reshaped and that jobs arebeing created at the top and bottom of the skills scale, whilethose in the middle tier are being squeezed.

7.1%

6.4%

5.5%

2.0%

3.2%

2.0%

7.9%

6.9%

9.9%

Elementary

Sales & customerservice

Personal service

Process, plant &machine operatives

Skilled trades

Administrative &secretarial

Associate professional& technical

Professional

Managers and seniorofficials

Fore

cast

Cha

nge

in O

ccup

atio

ns in

GM

, 201

3-23

(%)

Intermediate Skill

High Skill

Low Skill

Summary

From an employment perspective, professional, scientific &technical activities and administrative & support serviceactivities are expected to be the largest contributors to jobsgrowth in GM over the next 10 years – with almost 54,000new opportunities being created in the two sectors. Inaddition, they are expected to see GVA grow by more than£3.5 billion over the next decade.

The long-term decline in manufacturing employment is stillevident, although the sector’s contribution towardseconomic output is expected to grow considerably to 2023.

The 2013 GMFM results also suggest that an increasingnumber of roles in the conurbation will be created at thehigher and lower ends of the skills ladder in GM up to 2023,with fewer at intermediate levels. This is likely to impact onthe type of job opportunities that become available in GMand significantly, on the level of qualifications people needin order to access them.

Figure 3: Forecast Change in GM’s Occupational Structure, 2013–23


Place Monitor Record month for hotel occupancy

The latest data on hotel occupancy reveal that Manchester city centre achieved its highest November weekend occupancyfigure to date, with the Manchester Christmas Markets contributing considerably to occupancy rates, boosted further by anumber of high-profile events. Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) data on airport passenger numbers are also positive, withManchester Airport once again seeing an annual increase in the number of passengers.

% represents year-on-year change

Airport passenger numbers (+6.8%)

1,879,327Flights (+1.9%)

14,583

Hotel Occupancy

Hotel occupancy rates in Manchester city centre wererecorded at 87% in November 2013, up from 86% theprevious year. This monthly average has only ever beenachieved once before in November 2006. November alsogenerated the highest recorded weekend occupancy rate of93%, up from 91% in November 2012. The weekdayaverage occupancy in the city centre was 83%, the samerate as November 2012.

For GM as a whole, average occupancy rates in Novemberwere 83%, up from 81% on the previous 12 months.

The Manchester Christmas Markets contributed considerablyto occupancy rates in November and are expected to havegenerated an estimated fifty million pounds for the localeconomy.

Key dates for hotel occupancy in the city centre duringNovember were:

• 30 November – 99% occupancy achieved, withoccupancy boosted by the Rugby League World Cup Finaltaking place at Old Trafford;

• 23 November – 98% occupancy achieved, helped by theWBA World Boxing title bout between Froch and Grovesat the Phones 4u Arena; and

• 6 November – 97% occupancy, boosted by a number ofconference and business events across the city includingthe CIPD Conference and the 26th Congress of theEuropean Association for Personnel Management, bothheld at Manchester Central.

Airport Passenger Numbers

Manchester Airport handled nearly 1.9million passengers inOctober 2013, a rise of 119,600 (6.8%) from 12 monthspreviously, marking the Airport’s seventeenth consecutivemonth of year-on-year growth. Month-on-month passengernumbers fell by 316,400 (14.4%), as would be expectedseasonally.

The annual growth in passenger numbers at ManchesterAirport was higher than all other major UK airports, with theLondon airports of Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted, andBirmingham seeing growth of 4.6%, 4.2%, 4.3% and 1.6%respectively.

The introduction of an abundance of new routes as well asincreased capacity and frequency means that growth atManchester Airport looks set to continue well into 2014.Jet2.com is increasing capacity by a third compared towinter 2012, with new destinations including Faro, Lyon,Palma, and Venice, as well as increasing flights to popularSpanish destinations. In addition, Thomas Cook has alsorecently launched new long-haul services to St Lucia,Barbados, and Antigua as well as increases in flights towinter destinations such as Fuerteventura, Tunisia, and theGambia.

IMPORTANT NOTE: The source of the hotel occupancy data referenced in this newsletter is STR Global Ltd.Republication or other reuse of this data without the express written permission of STR Global is strictly prohibited.

Hotel occupancy (city centre) (1% pt)

87%Hotel occupancy (GM) (2% pts)

83%


House Prices

Property prices in England & Wales were almost flat inNovember 2013, rising by only 0.06% (£108) from October2013 and now stand at £165,400. House prices in the NorthWest saw a month-on-month rise of 1.5% (£1,637), whilstprices in GM also saw a slight month-on-month increase of0.5% (£560).

At a local authority level, Manchester (4.8% or £4,377),Stockport (0.1% or £210), Tameside (0.3% or £304) andTrafford (1.4% or £2,493) saw house price rises betweenNovember 2012 and November 2013. The remaining sixdistricts all saw declines, with the largest found in Rochdale(1.9% or £1,729) and Bolton (1.8% or £1,601).

Nationally, house prices are widely expected to rise in 2014.In its forecast for the year ahead, the Royal Institution ofChartered Surveyors (RICS) said that it expected houseprices to rise by up to 8% as demand continues to outstripsupply. Whilst house prices in GM have remained fairlystagnant over the last twelve months, there is clearlypotential for prices to rise here too.

House Sales

Year-on-year, house sales in GM have increased by 17.7%(355 between September 2012 and September 2013). Thiswas proportionally lower than the annual increases seen inthe North West (23.5% or 1,268) and England & Wales(23.4% or 12,508).

Land Registry data reveal that there were 2,366 propertiessold in GM in September 2013, a monthly fall of 20.8%(620). The North West (16.0% or 1269) and England andWales (15.1% or 11,602) also saw a decline in house sales.

At a local authority level, Manchester saw the largestnumber of house sales in GM (391), followed by Stockport(289) and Wigan (288). The lowest number of house sales inGM was seen in Rochdale (154) followed by Tameside (173)and Bury (176).

GM housing market remains flat

Land Registry data show that the average cost of a house in GM remained flat over the 12 months to November 2013, increasingby only 0.3% (£290). A typical property now costs just over £104,000. House prices in the North West also remained fairlystagnant over the same period, rising by 0.8% (£888), in contrast to the overall growth in England & Wales of 3.2% (£5,170).

Housing Monitor

£0

£20,000

£40,000

£60,000

£80,000

£100,000

£120,000

£140,000

Nov-03 Nov-05 Nov-07 Nov-09 Nov-11 Nov-13

Ave

rag

e H

ous

e P

rice

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Ho

use

Sal

es

HOUSE SALES

HOUSE PRICES

November 2013 : £104,088

September 2013 : 2,366

GM Housing Market


Crime Volumes

Figures for the year ending December 2013 show that therewere around 179,800 reported crimes in GM – an annualdecline of 3.7% or 6,850 fewer offences.

Victim-based crimes (stealing, criminal damage & arson,violence, and sexual offences) saw almost 162,000 casesrecorded over the same period, representing an annual fallof 1.9%.

While overall volumes of crime decreased, the number ofsexual offences increased by 17.7% (471) across GM duringthe year to December 2013, possibly due to more peoplereporting sexual offences in the wake of the Jimmy Savilleinvestigation. The number of stealing offences also rose by2% (1,614) over the same period.

Crimes Solved

GMP successfully solved 28% of all crimes for the yearending December 2013 – a decline of 3.0 percentage pointscompared to the previous 12 months.

In terms of victim based crime 23% of cases were solvedover the 12 months to December 2013, a year-on-year fallof 2.0 percentage points.

GM Fire & Rescue Service Data

Deliberate fires in GM were recorded at 9,107 for the 12months to December 2013, compared to a figure of 7,817for the previous year, an annual rise of 16.5% (1,290).However, primary fires, which are those where ownedproperty is involved, were recorded at 1,604 for the yearending December 2013, a year-on-year fall of 12.0% (-219).

Hospital Attendances

The latest figures (November 2012 to October 2013) inrelation to assault attendances at local emergencydepartments show that there were 12,227 assaults over thelast twelve months, a 4.4% increase when compared withfigures for the previous 12 months (November 2011 toOctober 2012 – 11,713 assault attendances).

Crime volumes continue to decline

Data from Greater Manchester Police (GMP) for the year ending December 2013 show that the number of reported crimes iscontinuing to fall, declining by 3.7% over the last 12 months. However, there has been a slight fall in the number of crimes solvedin GM, which at 28% is 3.0 percentage points lower than December 2012.

Crime Monitor

161,991

165,113

17,798

21,529

140,000 150,000 160,000 170,000 180,000 190,000

Year to Dec 2013

Year to Dec 2012

Victim based crime Non-victim based crime, fraud & forgery

Total crimes186,642

Total crimes179,789

Crime Volumes in Greater Manchester

manchester monitor january 2014

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