manhattan brooklyn new development 2,775 1,340 year-end report · this report analyzes 2015 as a...
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New Development Year-End Report
*Available inventory includes all units currently on the market as well as those not yet released.
BROOKLYNMANHATTAN
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CLOSED
$1,167AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CLOSED
$1,908
AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)*
694AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)*
4,250
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE
$1,335
$1,340
$2,268
$2,775
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE
21% YoY 31% YoY
MANHATTAN BROOKLYN
Summary Points
Avg. PPSF for Contract Signed new
development units in Brooklyn rose
18.2% year-over-year to $1,335 from
$1,129 PSF in 2014. In Manhattan, Avg.
PPSF for Contract Signed units rose
2.4% to $2,268 PSF from $2,215 in 2014.
With 611 total Contract Signed and Closed units in 2015, the Brooklyn new
development market is now 25% as large as the Manhattan market by
transaction volume, up sharply from 10.5% in 2014. New Development deal
volume increased 169% in Brooklyn year-over-year, up from 223 units in 2014.
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2015 Second Quarter Report | 2
MEDIAN PRICE PER SQ. FT.
Active $2,364 $1,340
Contract Signed $2,132 $1,310
Closed $1,739 $1,177
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT.
Active $2,775 $1,340
Contract Signed $2,268 $1,335
Closed $1,908 $1,167
MEDIAN PRICE
Active $4,987,500 $1,710,000
Contract Signed $3,200,000 $1,625,000
Closed $1,991,651 $941,500
AVERAGE PRICE
Active $8,285,586 $2,152,694
Contract Signed $4,513,433 $1,946,302
Closed $3,592,676 $1,116,862
TOTAL INVENTORY (UNITS)
Total 9,044 1,703
Units Available 4,250 694
% Closed or Contract Signed
53.0% 59.2%
New Development absorption
in 2015 was robust, with an
average of 201 units sold per
month in Manhattan and an
average of 51 units per month
in Brooklyn.
The volume of Manhattan Closed deals in
the $1M-$4M price range rose 17% from
1,128 units in 2014 to 1,318 in 2015. 49.2%
of all new Active development listings in
Manhattan are priced above $5M, down
from 52% in 2014.
In Manhattan, Midtown East
experienced the largest Avg. PPSF
rise for Contract Signed units
to $2,152, a 19% YoY increase,
followed by the Upper West
Side with a 13.3% year-over-year
increase to $2,012 PSF. (Excludes
Billionaire’s Row)
201UNITS
25%
$1M-$4M $2,152
18.2%
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2015 Year-End Report | 3
Introduction
HPDM is pleased and excited
to present our Year-End New
Development Report for 2015. This
report focuses exclusively on the
NYC new development condominium
market, and aims to be the only report
of its kind presenting a comprehensive
picture of new development activity.
New development is unique from
the overall real estate market in that
closings often do not occur until 12
to 18 months after a buyer enters
into contract. To fully understand this
market it is critical to track active
listings, listings in contract, closed
listings, as well as total inventory.
This report analyzes 2015 as a whole
and is also a snapshot of current new
development market conditions.
New development pricing was again
robust in 2015. With an average
Contract Signed Price per Sq. Ft. of
$2,268 in Manhattan and $1,335 in
Brooklyn, we expect to see a strong
pricing dynamic continue into the 1st
Quarter of 2016.
METHODOLOGY:
§ All data is provided by proprietary
Halstead Property Development
Marketing research.
§ This report tracks new development
projects only, defined as those new
to the market and currently selling
sponsor units. Buildings that have
fully sold out of sponsor units are
not included, even though they may
have recently been built. Resale data
is not included in this report.
§ All listings were compiled as
of 12/14/15.
§§ Total§Inventory is defined as all units
within new development projects
that are currently listed as Active,
Contract Signed, or Closed, as well
as those units not yet released
to the market. Available§Units is
defined as new development units
that are currently listed as Active
as well as those not yet released
to the market. These numbers
include units released prior to 2015,
provided they are in a project that
has not sold out all sponsor units.
By including currently unreleased
units that are not yet listed as
Active, this report provides a unique
and comprehensive analysis of the
current new development market.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
MARKET OVERVIEW ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
MANHATTAN NEIGHBORHOOD INSIGHT ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
ANALYSIS BY UNIT TYPE ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7
PRICE POINT ANALYSIS ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8
TOTAL INVENTORY ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
FURTHER INSIGHT ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
CONTACT ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2015 Year-End Report | 4
Market OverviewDowntown saw the most development activity in Manhattan in 2015 with over 960 units either entering into contract or closing. Next to
Billionaire’s Row, Downtown Manhattan also continues to be the area with the highest Avg. Active Price per Sq. Ft. at $2,782, essentially
unchanged year-over-year. Closed deals in Downtown Manhattan averaged $2,090 PSF in 2015, a 16% increase year-over-year. Brooklyn saw
over 600 new developments enter into contract or close in 2015, up from 223 in 2014, representing a 169% increase in deal volume.
CONTRACT SIGNED AND CLOSED
GROUND-UP VS. CONVERSIONS — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
* Billionaire’s Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint, Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Red Hook, Williamsburg
NUMBER OF UNITS
GROUND UP CONVERSIONS NUMBER OF UNITS
$1,
026
$1,
89
3
$1,
53
4
$4
,76
5
$2,0
08
$2,4
64
$1,
275$8
41
133 388
193
307
53
321
968
611
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW* MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN**
Ground-Up vs. Conversions - Avg. Price per Sq. Ft.
$1,
70
5 $2,6
25
$1,
973
$1,
78
4
$2,1
15
$1,
36
6
$4
,30
6
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
$9
42
$2,2
95
$1,
96
2
$5
,85
2
$2,5
85
$2,7
82
$1,
34
0
$1,
109
$2,0
12
$2,1
25
$1,
73
4
$5
,64
4
$2,1
52
$2,5
45
$1,
33
5
$9
67
$1,
68
1
$2,1
73
$1,
68
8
$4
,624
$1,
94
6
$2,0
90 $1,
167
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW*
MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN**
$2,2
14
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2015 Year-End Report | 5
Market Overview by Quarter
CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015
$2,5
48
$2,3
25
$1,
24
5$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW*
MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN**
$1,
027
$2,1
53
$1,
80
2
$4
,84
9
$1,
93
1
$2,2
74
$1,
23
1
$8
49
$2,1
58
$1,
76
9
$4
,98
1
$2,1
06
$2,3
82
$1,
314
$9
94
$1,
99
3
$1,
674
$4
,84
8
$1,
975
$2,2
18
$1,
29
1$1,
112
$2,1
53
$1,
66
9
$5
,40
3
$1,
977
$2,3
43
$1,
26
5
$1,
58
5
$2,2
12
$1,
89
8
$1,
74
5
The graph below depicts pricing for Contract Signed and Closed units
by quarter. Harlem again saw the largest quarter-over-quarter increase in
Average PPSF at over 11%, rising to $1,112. The Upper East Side experienced
an 8% increase QoQ to $2,153 PSF, while Downtown Manhattan increased
5.6% to $2,343 PSF
* Billionaire’s Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint, Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Red Hook, Williamsburg
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2015 Year-End Report | 6
UPTOWN, MIDTOWN. AND DOWNTOWN
Outside of Billionaire’s Row, the highest average Contract Signed pricing in
Manhattan was achieved in the West Village at $3,406 PSF followed by
West Chelsea at $3,133 for 2015. The highest average Closed pricing outside
of Billionaire’s Row occurred in the West Village at $2,822 PSF followed by
NoHo at $2,757 PSF.
Manhattan Neighborhood Insight
UPTOWN AND MIDTOWN
MANHATTAN — ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
DOWNTOWN
MANHATTAN — ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW*
MIDTOWN EAST CHELSEA WEST CHELSEA HELL'S KITCHEN
$9
42
$2,2
14
$2,2
95
$2,3
26
$5
,85
2
$2,5
85
$2,1
52 $
3,0
61
$3
,16
5
$1,
827$1,
109
$2,0
12
$2,1
25
$2,2
43
$1,
824
$5
,64
4
$2,0
89 $
3,1
33
$1,
571
$9
67
$1,
68
1
$2,1
73
$4
,624
$1,
94
6
$2,4
47
$2,4
39 $
1,6
75
FINANCIAL DISTRICTEAST VILLAGE LESWEST VILLAGETRIBECANOHOSOHOGREENWICH VILLAGE
FLATIRONGRAMERCY PARK
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$1,
99
7 $3
,16
5
$3
,014
$3
,58
8
$3
,721
$2,5
44
$2,7
57
$3
,08
7 $4
,35
7
$1,
624
$2,4
67
$2,1
64
$1,
920
$2,8
17
$2,5
70
$2,3
22 $3
,40
6
$1,
44
2
$2,2
05
$2,6
24
$2,2
79
$2,2
81
$2,2
74
$2,1
37
$2,8
22
$1,
44
5
* Billionaire’s Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2015 Year-End Report | 7
Analysis by Unit TypeMANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN
MANHATTAN — MEDIAN PRICE PER UNIT TYPE
BROOKLYN — MEDIAN PRICE PER UNIT TYPE
MANHATTAN — TOTAL UNITS BY BEDROOM
BROOKLYN — TOTAL UNITS BY BEDROOM
$2M
$4M
$6M
$8M
$10M
$12M
$14M
$16M
$18M
0
1000
800
600
400
200
1200
5 BED4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO
NUMBER OF UNITS
772
138
1059755
35099
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS
$1.
150
M
$1.
49
M
$2.9
8M
$6
.30
M
$8
.91M
$16
.52M
$7
25
K
$1.
64
M
$3
.05
M
$5
.95
M
$7.8
7M
$9
.51M
$78
0K
$1.
19M
$2.1
2M
$4
.62M $7.1
5M
$8
.77M
4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO
NUMBER OF UNITS
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS
$5
30
K
$8
77K
$1.
59
M
$2.6
0M
$3
.99
M
$5
37K
$5
88
K
$9
20
K
$1.
59
M $2.3
1M
$3
.70
M
$3
.54
M
$725
K
$1.
42M $
2.4
4M
&'"
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
$500K
$1M
$1.5M
$2M
$2.5M
$3M
$3.5M
$4M
$4.5M
56
233
272
18374
5 BED4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO
12
29
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
173
228
23
7
153
24
0
130
40
1
199
25
9
229
22
40
2 45
9
26
7
118
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50 33
93
48
8814
4
4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO6
6
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
57
67
48
29
14 32
119
49
140
69
118
53
43
65
63
12
2
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20 10
In 2015 two bedroom units experienced the most deal volume by unit type in both Manhattan and Brooklyn, with approximately
860 two bedroom units entering into contract or closing in Manhattan, while over 200 two bedroom units were sold in Brooklyn.
Median Contract Signed pricing for two bedrooms in Manhattan continues to rise, increasing over 12.5% to $3.05M year-over-year.
In Brooklyn, median Contract Signed pricing for two bedrooms rose 15.5% YoY to $1.59M. In Manhattan, three bedrooms have the
most Active listings, while two bedrooms comprise the most Active listings in Brooklyn.
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2015 Year-End Report | 8
Price Point Analysis MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
49
.1%
8.1%
8.8
%
4.5
%
12.9
%
16.5
%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
27.7
%
31.
9%
27.5
%
10.8
%
6.1%
6.1%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
8.9
%
21.
0%
16.4
%
9.5
%
30
.2%
14.1
%
26
.4%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
24
.7%
38
.4%
21.
5%
9.4
%
3.4
%
2.5
%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
17.1
%
15.2
%8.0
%
5.2
%
33
.6%
20
.8%
0.0
%
0.6
%
1.7%
6.3
%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
56
.3%
35
.1%
49.2% of all new development listings in Manhattan are priced above $5M. This
number is down from 52% in 2014. 22% remain priced above $10M, essentially in-
line year-over-year. Additionally, the volume of Contract Signed and Closed deals
in the $1M-$4M price range rose 17% from 1,128 in 2014 to 1,318 in 2015.
2015 PRICE POINT MANHATTAN — ACTIVE
2015 PRICE POINT BROOKLYN — ACTIVE
MANHATTAN — CONTRACT SIGNED
BROOKLYN — CONTRACT SIGNED BROOKLYN — CLOSED
MANHATTAN — CLOSED
Brooklyn saw a sharp increase in deal volume within the $2M - $4M price range,
with 149 units closed or contract signed at this price point in 2015 versus 42 in
2014. This 250% increase YoY illustrates market absorption of higher priced units
in the borough.
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2015 Year-End Report | 9
Total Inventory MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN
The largest amount of total inventory in Manhattan is concentrated in the Upper
West Side, followed closely by the Financial District. In Brooklyn the highest total
inventory is found in Williamsburg, Prospect Heights, and DUMBO. The graphs
below present total inventory by neighborhood along with the corresponding
percentage of units sold.
MANHATTAN TOTAL INVENTORY
BROOKLYN TOTAL INVENTORY
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
FINANCIALDISTRICT
LESWEST EASTVILLAGE VILLAGE
TRIBECANOHOSOHOGREEN.VILLAGE
FLATIRONGRAM.PARK
HELL'SKITCHEN
WESTCHELSEA
CHELSEAMIDTOWNEAST
BN.ROW*
MIDTOWNWEST
UESUWSHARLEM
58%
32%
80%
64%
75%
26% 46%
45%
88%
72%
515
31
44
5
1171
19
97
48
53
5
165
23
9
58
8
169
PERCENTAGE SOLD
76% 64%
47%40%
59%
50%
49%56%
95%
TOTAL UNITS PERCENT SOLD
133
0
98
7
871
84
74
216
876
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
WILLIAMSBURGPARK SLOPEGREEN POINT PROSPECT HEIGHTS
DUMBODOWNTOWNBROOKLYN
BOERUM HILLCROWN HEIGHTSCLINTON HILLSCARROLL GARDENS
BROOKLYNHEIGHTS
74%
0% 28%
91%
173
18 16
34
5
22
213
144
36
32
13
135
PERCENTAGE SOLD
54%
322
53%
378
88%90%
66% 23%
85%
TOTAL UNITS
0
50
150
100
200
250
300
350
400
PERCENT SOLD
Total Inventory is defined as all new development units, currently listed as Active,
Contract Signed, or Closed, as well as those units not yet released to the market.
Available Units is defined as new development units that are either currently listed as
Active or those not yet released to the market. These numbers include units released
prior to 2015, provided they are in a project that has not sold out all sponsor units.
This data provides a comprehensive look at new development inventory by including
unreleased units.
* Billionaire’s Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2015 Year-End Report | 10
Further Insight
Downtown Manhattan continued to experience the most new development
activity by volume in 2015, followed by Brooklyn and the Upper West Side. Most
notably, Contract Signed volume increased to 437 units in Brooklyn from 194
in 2014, a 125% increase reflecting the continued emergence of Brooklyn’s new
development market. Additionally, over 200 closings occurred in both Midtown
East and Midtown West in 2015, reflecting the delivery of units that entered
into contract in 2014.
Studio and one bedroom sizes remain very similar in both Manhattan and Brooklyn,
though in larger unit types median square footage in Manhattan continue to reflect
oversized units in the luxury market.
NEW DEVELOPMENT LISTINGS BY NEIGHBORHOOD MEDIAN SIZE (SQ. FT.) BY UNIT TYPE
BKLYN**UPPERMANHATTAN
DOWNTOWNBNROW*
MIDTOWNWEST
MIDTOWNEAST
UWSUES
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
106
87 84
59 65
35
1
22
213
85
187 224
99
20
8
6
53
3
37
43
7
108
20
1
47
43
5
151
174
97
100
200
300
400
500
600
UNITS
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5 BR4 BR3 BR2 BR1 BRSTUDIO
MANHATTAN BROOKLYN
50
7
79
9
2,2
27
479
715
1,74
3
1,4
41
1,15
1
3,2
09
4,3
01
2,5
82
2,8
88
SQ.FT
MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN
Contact
445 Park Avenue, 12th Floor | New York, NY 10022
HPDMNY.com
212 521 5757
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Prepared by Matthew Petrallia, Chief Market and Planning Analyst.The information presented here has been gathered from resources deemed reliable and refined by HPDM internal research, though it may be subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. This information may not be copied, commercially used or distributed without HPDM’s prior consent.
For questions or comments regarding this report please contact [email protected]