mannava v. k.sivakumar . james hansen...
TRANSCRIPT
Mannava V. K.Sivakumar . James Hansen (Eds.)
Climate rediction,an Agr·cultureAdvances and Challenges
World Meteorological Organization
Global Change System for Analysis,Research and Training
.8··", ,
IR!The International Research Institutefor Climate and Society
~ Springer
Agricultural Meteorology DivisionWorld Meteorological Organization7bis, Avenue de Ia Paix
J 1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland
Agricultural SystemsInternational Research Institute for Climate and SocietyThe Earth Institute at Columbia University121 Monell Bldg., Lamont-Doherty Earth ObservatoryPO Box 1000/61 Route 9WPalisades, NY 10964-8000, USA
ISBN-10ISBN-13
3-540-44649-4 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York978-3-540-44649-1 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York
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Department of Soil ScienceUniversity of GhanaLegon, Accra, GhanaE-mail: [email protected]
Vesselin AlexandrovNational Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology66, Tsarigradsko chaussee, blvd.1784 Sofia, Bulgaria •E-mail: [email protected]
Joek R. AndersonConsultant, IFPRI and World Bank12894 Livia DrCatharpin VA 20143, USAE-mail: [email protected]
Walter E. BaethgenInternational Research Institute forClimate and Society (IR!)P.O. Box 1000Palisades, NY 10964-8000, USAE-mail: [email protected]
Guillermo A. BaigorriaUniversity of FloridaP.O. Box 110570Gainesville, FL 32611-0570, USAE-mail: [email protected]
Venkataram BalajiInternational Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)Patancheru 502324, A.P., IndiaE-mail: [email protected]
John G. BellowCenter for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction StlldiesFlorida State UniversityP.O. Box 2840Tallahassee, FL 32306-2840, USAE-mail: [email protected]
Instituto Nacional de Tecnología AgropecllariaInstituto de Clima y Agua1712 Castelar, ArgentinaE-mail: [email protected]
Rizaldi BoerLaboratory of ClimatologyBogor Agricultural UniversityKamplls IPB Darmaga, Jalan RayaBogor 16680, IndonesiaE-mail: [email protected]
Norman E. BreuerRSMAS/MAFUniversity of Miami4600 Rickenbacker CausewayMiami, FL 33149-1098, USAE-mail: [email protected]
Vietor E. CabreraRSMAS/MAFUniversity of Miami4600 Rickenbacker CausewayMiami, FL 33149-1098, USAE-mail: [email protected]
Valerio CapeeehiInstitllte of BiometeorologyNational Research CouncilVia Giovanni Caproni 850145 Firenze, ItalyE-mail: [email protected]
Andrew ChaUinorNCAS-ClimateDepartment of IvIeteorologyUniversity of ReadingReading RG6 6BB, UKE-mail: [email protected]
peter CooperInternational Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)P.O. Box 39063Nairobi, KenyaE-mail: [email protected]
Alfonso CrisciInstitute of BiometeorologyNational Research CouncilVia Giovanni Caproni 850145 Firenze, ItalyE-mail: [email protected]
Gilberto R. CunhaEmbrapa TrigoPasso Fundo, RS 99001-970, BrazilE-mail: [email protected]
Emerson M. deZ PonteDepartment of Plant PathologyIowa State UniversityAmes, IA 50011, USAE-mail: [email protected]
San NIiguel CorporationPasig CityIvIetro IvIanila, PhilippinesE-mail: [email protected]
Josef EitzingerInstitute of IvIeteorology and PhysicsUniversity of Natural Resources andApplied Life SciencesVienna, AllstriaE-mail: [email protected]
José M. C. FerrzándesEmbrapa TrigoPasso Fundo, RS 99001-970, BrazilE-mail: [email protected]
CZyde W FraisseDepartment of Agricultural andBiological EngineeringUniversity of FloridaP.O. Box 110570Gainesville, FL yi.611-0570, USAE-mail: [email protected]
Axel Garcia y GarciaDepartment of Biological andAgricultural EngineeringUniversity of Georgia1109 Experiment StreetGriffin, GA 30223-1797> USAE-mail: [email protected]
Larry C. GuerraDepartment of Biological andAgricultural EngineeringUniversity of Georgia1109 Experiment StreetGriffin, GA 30223-1797, USAE-mail: [email protected]
James HansenInternational Research Institute forClimate and Society (IRI)P.O. Box 1000Palisades, NY 10964-8000, USAE-mail: [email protected]
Upton L. HatchAuburn University101 Comer HallAllbllrn University, AL 36849, USAE-mail: [email protected]
Harvey S. f. HillAgriculture and Agri-Food CanadaPrairie Farm Rehabilitation AdministrationRoom 1101, 11Innovation Blvd.Saskatoon, SK S7N-3H5, CanadaE-mail: [email protected]
Gerit HoogenboomDepartment of Biological andAgriclll tural EngineeringUniversity of Georgia1109 Experiment StreetGriffin, GA 30223-1797, USAE-mail: [email protected]
Keith T IngramDepartment of Agricultural andBiological EngineeringUniversity of FloridaP.O. Box 110570Gainesville, FL 32611-0570, USAE-mail: [email protected]
Paul IsabiryeDepartment of MeteorologyP.O. Box 7025Kampala, UgandaE-mail: [email protected]
fames W fonesDepartment of Agricultural andBiological EngineeringUniversity of FloridaP.O. Box 110570Gainesville, FL 32611, USAE-mail: [email protected]
Sunil KaushikNCMRWF, Ministry of Earth ScienceA-50, Institutional Area, Sector-62,Noida 201307, u.P., IndiaE-mail: [email protected]
International Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (lCRISAT)P.O. Box 12404Niamey, NigerE-mail: [email protected]
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra-tion, Office of Global Programs (NOAA-OGP)1100 Wayne AvenueSilver Spring, MD 20910, USAE-mail: [email protected]
Mamoutou KouressyInstitut d'Economie Rurale (lER)P.O. Box 258Bamako, MaliE-mail: [email protected]
Acharya N. G. Ranga Agricultural University(ANGRAU)Regional Agricultural Research StationNandyala 518502, A.P., IndiaE-mail: [email protected]
S. K. Krishna MurthyAcharya N. G. Ranga Agricultural University(ANGRAU)Agricultural Research Station, DCMS Bldg.Anantapur 515001, A.P., IndiaE-mail: [email protected]
Felino P. LansiganInstitute of StatisticsUniversity of the Philipppines Los BanosLaguna 4031, PhilippinesE-mail: [email protected]
Le Thi Xuan LanSouthern Regional Hydrometerological Center(SRHMC)8 Mac Dinh Chi Str., Dist. 1Ho Chi Minh City, Viet NamE-mail: [email protected]
David LetsonRSMAS/MAFUniversity of Miami4600 Rickenbacker CausewayMiami, FL 33149-1098, USAE-mail: [email protected]
School of Bioresources Engineering andEnvironmental HydrologyUniversity of KwaZulu-NatalPrivate Bag X01Scottsville, 3209,South AfricaE-mai!: [email protected]
Luong Van VietSub-Institute of Hydrometeorology andEnvironment (SIHYMETE)19 Nguyen Thi Minh Khai Str., Dist. 1Ho Chi Minh City,Viet NamE-mail: [email protected]
Graciela O. MagrinInstituto Nacional de Tecnología AgropecuariaInstituto de Clima y Agua1712 Castelar, ArgentinaE-mail: [email protected]
International Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (lCRISAT)P.O. Box 12404Niamey, NigerE-mail: [email protected]
Giampiero MaracchiInstitute of BiometeorologyNational Research CouncilVia Giovanni Caproni 850145 Firenze, ItalyE-mail: [email protected]
I}erdinand D. MawunyaAgricultural Research CenterUniversity of GhanaKpong, GhanaE-mail: [email protected]
HoZger MeinkeDepartment of Primary Industries and FisheriesP.O. Box 102Toowoomba, QLD 4350, AustraliaE-mail: [email protected]
Francisco f. lVlezaFacultad de Agronomía e Ingeniería ForestalPontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, ChileE-mail: [email protected]
James W lVljeZde318D BlockerTexas A&M UniversityCoUege Station, TX 77843, USAE-mail: j-mjelde@tamu:edu
Department of Agriculture EngineeringMakerere UniversityP.O. Box 7062Kampala, UgandaE-mail: [email protected]
V. Nageswara RaoInternational Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)Patancheru 5°2324, A.P., IndiaE-mail: [email protected]
Nguyen Thi Hien ThuanSub-Institute of Hydrometeorology andEnvironment (SIHYMETE)19 Nguyen Thi Minh Khai Str., Dist. 1Ho Chi Minh City,Viet NamE-mail: [email protected]
Nguyen Dinh Phu11Hung Vuong Rd., P. 2Tan An Town, Long An, Viet Nam
Nguyen Thi PhuongSub- Institute of Hydrometeorology andEnvironment (SIHYMETE)19 Nguyen Thi Minh Khai Str., Dist. 1Ho Chi Minh City,Viet NamE-mail: [email protected]
James f. O'BrienCenter for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction StudiesFlorida State UniversityP.O. Box 2840 .TaUahassee, FL 323°6-2840, USAE-mail: [email protected]
Tom OsborneNCAS-ClimateDepartment of MeteorologyUniversity of ReadingReading RG6 6BB, UKE-mail: [email protected]
Willington PavanInstituto de Ciências Exatas e GeocienciasUniversidade de Passo FundoPasso Fundo, RS 99001-970, BrazilE-mail: [email protected]
JaeZ o. PazDepartment of Biological andAgricultural EngineeringUniversity of Georgia1109 Experiment StreetGriffin, GA 3°223-1797, USAE-mail: [email protected]
Francesco PianiInstitute of BiometeorologyNational Research CouncilVia Giovanni Caproni 850145 Firenze, ItalyE-mail: [email protected]
International Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)P.O. Box 39063Nairobi, KenyaE-mail: [email protected]
Danda Raji ReddyAgromet CeU, Agricultura! Research InstituteANGR Agricultural University, RajendranagarHyderabad 500030, A.P., IndiaE-mail: [email protected]
Laxman Singh RathoreNational Center for Médium Range WeatherForecasting (NCMRWF)Ministry of Earth ScienceA-50 Institutional Area, Sector-62Noida 201301, u.P., IndiaE-mail: [email protected]
Raj RengalakshmiM. S. Swaminathan Research Foundation3rd Cross Street, Institutional Area, TaramaniChennai 600113, IndiaE-mail: [email protected]
Alvaro RoelNational Institute of Agricultural Research (INIA)CP 33000, Treinta Y Tres, UruguayE-mail: [email protected]
Carla RoncoliDepartment of Biological andAgricultural EngineeringUniversity of Georgia1109 Experiment StreetGriffin, GA 30223-1797, USAE-mail: [email protected]
School of Bioresources Engineering andEnvironmental Hydrology,University of KwaZulu-NatalPrivate Bag X01Scottsville, 3209, South AfricaE-mail: [email protected]
Ramasamy SelvarajuAsian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC)P.O. Box 4, Klong LuangPathumthani 12120, ThailandE-mail: [email protected]
Barry 1. ShapiroInternational Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)Patancheru 502324, A.P., IndiaE-mail: b.shap [email protected]
Kamalesh Kumar SinghNational Center fór Médium Range WeatherForecasting (NCMRWF)Ministry of Earth ScienceA-50 Institutional Area, Sector-62Noida 201307, u.P., IndiaE-mail: [email protected]
Piara SinghInternational Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)Patancheru 502324, A.P., IndiaE-mail: [email protected]
Mannava V. K. SivakumarWorld Meteorological Organization7bis, Avenue de Ia Paix1211Geneva 2, SwitzerlandE-mail: [email protected]
Julia SlíngoNCAS-ClimateDepartment of MeteorologyUniversity of ReadingReading RG6 6BB, UKE-mail: [email protected]
Gade SreenivasAgromet CeU, Agricultural Research InstituteANGR Agricultural University, RajendranagarHyderabad 500030, A.P., IndiaE-mail: [email protected]
David E. StooksburyDepartment of Biological andAgricultural EngineeringUniversity of GeorgiaDriftmier Engineering CenterAtl1ens, GA 30602-4435, USAE-mail: [email protected]
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC)P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang,Pathumthani 12120, Bangkok, ThailandE-mail [email protected]
Liqiang Sun .International Research Institute forClimate and Society (IRI)P.O. Box 1000Palisades, NY 10964-8000, USAE-mail: [email protected]
Ramadjita TaboInternational Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)P.O. Box 12404
Niamey, NigerE-mail: r. [email protected]
Pierre Sibiry"TraoréInternational Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)P.O. Box 320Bamako, MaliE-mail: p.s. traore@cgiaLorg
Seydou B. TraoréCentre Régional AgrhymetP.O. Box 11011Niamey, NigerE-mail: [email protected]
NIaria TravassoInstituto Nacional de Tecnología AgropecuariaInstituto de Clima y Agua1712 Castelar, ArgentinaE-mail: [email protected]
Angel UtsetAgrarian Technological Institute ofCastilla y Leon (ITACYL)Ctra. Burgos km 11947071 Valladolid, SpainE-mail: [email protected]
Centre de Coopération Internationale enRecherche Agronomique pour le Développement(CIRAD)P.O. Box 1813Bamako, MaliE-mail: [email protected]
Balai Pengkajian Teknologi Pertanian Jawa Timur(Institute for Assessment of AgricultureTechnology, East Java)Jalan Raya Karang PlosoMalang 6112, IndonesiaE-mail: [email protected]
Milton Michael WaiswaDepartment of MeteorologyP.O. Box 7025Kampala, UgandaE-mail: [email protected]
Suhas WaniInternational Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)Patancheru 502324, A.P., IndiaE-mail: s.wani@cgiaLorg
International Research Institute forClimate and Society (IRI)P.O. Box 1000Palisades, NY 10964-8000, USAE-mail: [email protected]
Department of AgricultureUniversity of ReadingReading RG6 6AR, UKE-mail: [email protected]
International Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)Patancheru 502324, A.P., IndiaE-mail: m. [email protected]
Macarius YangyouruUniversity of Ghana Agricultural Research CenterKpong,GhanaE-mail: [email protected]
Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction StudiesFlorida State UniversityP.O. Box 2840Tallahassee, FL 32306-2840, USAE-mail: [email protected]
Chapter 25
\/Veb-Based 5ystem to True-Forecast Disease Epidemics -Case Study for Fusarium Head Blight of Wheat
25.1Introduction
Disease forecasting has become an established component of quantitative epidemiol-ogy. The mathematics of disease dynamics is the core of several disease forecast mod-els that have been developed in the last four decades. However, many models have notlived up to the expectations that they would play a major role and lead to a better dis-ease management. Amongst the reasons, the presumption of á disease forecast modelis that it makes projections of major events in disease development and most presentforecast models do not (Seem 2001). An exciting development in this area is the pos-sibility to use weather forecasts as input into disease models and consequently outputtrue disease forecasts. As weather forecasts improve together with more accurate esti-mations of micro environmental variables useful for plant disease models, as suchprecipitation and leaf wetness duration, it will be possible to provi de seasonal esti-mates of disease likelihood and forecast outbreaks. This is especialIy interesting forfield crops for the reason that unnecessary sprays has a significant impact on produc-tion costs, and no timely applications may result in inadequate controI.
The present work illustrates an approach towards that direction by the use of novelpragràmming languages and technology for the development of a web-based proto-type for model implement~tion and delivery. The case study is FHB, a disease of greatconcern for wheat production worldwide as welI as for southern Brazilian wheat ar-eas. Despite alI research done for many years, the control of this disease is still chal-lenging given its complex nature (McMul1en et aI. 1997) and some factors as dose rate,application timing and spray quality for adequate coverage of the spike tis sues are keyin fungicide efficacy for a good control (Reis 1986; Picinini and Fernandes 2001). FHBforecast models are considered an important tool for the decision-making, alIowingpraducers to timely and effectively apply fungicides in conjunction with other con-tral strategies (McMulIen et aI. 1997; Xu 2003). Different appraaches for modeling thisdisease are found in the literature and comprehensive information on several FHBmodels has been reviewed (DeI Ponte et aI. 2004).
Critical knowledge on the epidemiology of a disease needs to be available in devel-oping a decision support system. The epidemiology ofFHB has been studied in sOllth-ern Brazil since late 1980s. Climatic conditions are most suitable in that region, anddisease has a periodical occurrence. The distinct climate conditions observed alongthe years have helped in identifying the main factors affecting regional epidemics. Amechanistic process-based simlllation mo deI, named GIBSIM, has been developed and
improved along the years with previous knowledge and a series of local studies on theinteraction of pathogen, host dynamics, and the environment. The model has beenvalidated with epidemic cases observed in Passo Fundo location, BraziI. The data hasbeen collected on experimental plots in 5-years and distinct planting dates each year.The accumulated risk infection index simulated by the model explained 93% of varia-tion in disease severity (DeI Ponte et aI. 2005). ln this work, GIBSIM model is the core'bf a web-based prototype system designed to gather site-specific and forecast weatherdata and deliver true-forecasts for FHB for one location in southern BraziI.
25.2Material and Methods
The web application, called GibSimWeb was developed based on the Model- View-Controller (MVC) design pattern. The model part is the business logic; the view pre-sents images and data on WebPages; and the controller determines the overall flow ofthe application (Fig. 25.1).The server programs are: weather data management server(WDMS), database server (DBS), disease forecasting model server (DFMS), and web
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Simulationresults
Fig. 25.1. Architecture of the web appIication designed for gathering and storing actuaI and forecastweather data to run a simulation model to forecast risk of Fusarium head bIight of wheat. The serverprograms are: weather data management server (WDMS), database server (DBS), disease forecastingmo deI server (DFMS), and web server (WS)
server (WS). WDMS consists of a module for weather data retrieval from automatedweather stations located at remo te sites. Data is updated at 10 minutes interva1. ln ad-dition, forecast data, living on the lNPE (National lnstitute for Space Research) data-bases is retrieved by FTP protoco1. PostgreSQL is the core of DBS and stores weatherdata, as well the identifiers for weather station and run-time parameters such as cul-tivar, planting date, previous crop, etc. DBS is interfaced with WDMS and DFMS usinga Java APl, and with WS using an SQL module in a JSP script engine. WS retrieves in-formation from DBS upon request by users through a client-side (web-browser) in-terface. ln addition, it provides a simple request form for defining the run-timeparameters. The output is displayed either in textual or graphical format by using aserver-side plotting script. The system is also set to deliver simulation output to cellphones and PDA. Besides the option of defining a weather station in the database, thesystem allows users to input their own weather data, such as precipitation, tempera-ture, relative humidity, etc. customizing the results for site-specific conditions.
The system uses either hourly or dailyweather data from DBS,and DFMS producesr daily risk infection index by using near real-time and anticipated risks by combining
historical data with 7-dayweather forecast. During the simulation, each sub-model usesdata from WDMS. The daily output is a risk infection index calculated based on dailyoutputs from each sub-mod~l. The forecast risk combines both historical and 7-daysforecast of hourly weather data, generated by the ETA model using a grid of40 kmx 40 km. Since the model accounts for the effect of wheát development to esti-mate disease severity, the simulation starts on the day the first heads emerge in thefield. At any time since then, actual as well as future weekly accumulated risk index isestimated. Once an accumulated risk leveI of concern is projected and the simulationis at the critical time for control, the model warns that fungicides may be needed.
25.3Results and Discussion
The preliminary runs of'GibSim Web prototype showed that the system successfullycOllected hourlyweather data including solar radiation, temperature, precipitation andrelative humidity from Embrapa's automatic weather station and forecast data fromlNPE servers, and stored them in the DBS.After defining the location, heading date,and cultivar, the prototype is set to present the results in the webpage in a tabular(Fig. 25.2), graphical (Fig. 25.3) and report format (Fig. 25.4). The table shows modeloutput and weather variables. The graph shows the daily increase of infection index,and some environmental variables. lnfection indices and related risk are computed ina daily basis since first day of the simulation and the anticipated risk take into accountactual and forecast data. The report is a summary and interpretation of the risk ofoutbreaks, that may be used to base decision-making. The reports are sent to emailsand cell phone provided by registered users who set a specific date for heading andthe system runs automatically on a daily basis using pre-set parameters. Numericalinfection index is converted to 4 categoricallevels (no, low, moderate and high epi-demic risk) that will base decision-making on fungicide application, along with otherfactors. The GibSimWeb URL is http://ínf.upf.br:808o/gíb/GíbSímWeb.jsp.
StatiQn: II EBPF~VS ..:JI . Ir- =ir;-;==--~-=-p -IHea.diJ;Jg Date: ii)5f09f2005;~~1I I ...-
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So',viDg Date: lii1 Cultivar: t~.~?}?~ j..:J~. Runwith!.?recsst 1_ View (3ra~ :.::fie'í, Report.l
Shnulation Reslllts
Date ST Anthel's GZ lnf Gib Total SeverityGil).15/09/2005 o o 0,172 o o o o16/09/2005 o o 0,302 o o o o17/09/2005 o o 0,259 o o o o13/09/2005 o 307 0,249 o o o o19/09/2005 0,006 2090 0,205 o o o o20!09/2005 0.044 4373 0,159 o o I) o
Date Tndn Tnla""i21/09/2005 1" Q 22,4J"o
22/09/2005 15,5 27}523/09/2005 16 2324/08/2005 12,5 1625/09/2005 14,4 24,4
26/09/2005 12,6 25}827/08/2005 1'"''' 28~ JW
Tluean RH P SRad L"VD19..1 91,.5 .3 2,6 o21,5 70,.3 16,5 14 ..4 o19,5 96,3 10,5 1,3 o14,25 94 1718 2,.6 o19 ..4 82 21,1 14,1 o19,.2 72~3 o 18,8 o22,6 83 o 11,3 o
The prototype proved functional and can be easily extended to other locationswhere automatic weather stations are available with the capability to send data to DBSusing the same protocol. ln addition, the system may contain modules to allow a userto set weather retrieval from his own on-site automatic station directly to the DBS orfrom there to his computer and access a local database, besides retrieving forecast datafrom INPE. Therefore, the user may run the model for his location from any computeror mobile device accessing the web. The user will have the option to either make his
7-Set
.~ No FHB Risk FHB Risk LOIN FHB Risk ModerateTmax &;;1 Tmin :fj Srad . Rain
data public or private. This would be an alternative to computerized weather stationsthat are more costly.
A tactical utility of the web application for the management of FHB is the poten-tial to improve disease control by allowing timely fungicide applications. When a highrisk of outbreaks is antiClpated, application of fungicides soon after infections, ifweather permits, would help improve fungicide efficacy with a curative effect. Besidesthat, once weather data are available for severallocations in a region, the model canbe used to assess spatial variability of regional epidemic. Once long-term historicalweather dataset is available for severallocations in a production region, the model canbe used to map climatic suitability for the epidemics. Effects of planting dates and croprotations could be evaluated without the need of local experimentation. This systemmay also be used to hindcast past scenarios to test the accuracy of the system.
The modularity of the system allows the implementation of other disease modelsespecially those requiring more complex data such as hourly weather information andleaf wetness duration. The disease simulator may be easily layered with crop modelssuch as the CERE~-Wheat from the Decision Support System for AgrotechnologyTransfer (DSSAT)suite, using phenological data output by the latter (Ritchie et aI. 1998).Fernandes et aI. (2004), linked process-based models to assess the potential impact ofclimate change in the epidemics of Fusarium head blight in wheat growing regions insouthern Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina.
FHB Risk \'VaI'uing
Startn,lg of Heacling date: 09 ....15....2005Cultivar: :eRS1'79Location: Passo FlU1do
Today is: 09/20/2004Estimated peal..: of flm.'I'eling: 09/24/2004AccLUllulate,jinfection 11Sktoday: 0.0AccLUllluated '7-days forecast infection 11SI..::3.B9Projected seve11ty: 6.43~"ó
Today is 4 days before peal..: of flo·we11ngdate. Computer models are pl'ojectinga NO RISK of the clisease reách epidemic levels in the next '7 days. No contraImeaSLU"eis need at this time Jmt scenario may change accorcl,ing to dailypre clictions.
111e11Skgenerated ])y computers models is LUldervalidation for al"eas other tllallPasso FlU1do, RS, Brazil. Projected clisease 11S1..:depends on 'weatller forecastingfor tlle ne:"t seven days, which has lU1celtainties. 111einfonllation proüded ise:-'1) elimental and offere d to tlle !Jublie for infal1.11atianalJ.)LU1)aSe anly and shallnot be used for decisian making af allYkind. Embrapa Tl1g0 ..University of PassoFlU1doand National Institute for Space Research - INPE 01'tlleir employeesaSSLUlleno liability from tlle' use of tlns infol'lllation, nor do tlley \\'alTant tl1efitness of the forecasts for allYuse.
This research was supported in part by a grant from the Embrapa Macro Programa 2and a grant from AIACC LA27 project. The support received from CNPq is also ac-knowledged, Thanks also for the programming assistance received from the partici-pants in the Simuplan project.
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