Manpower planningManpower planning

E.W.Vetter viewedE.W.Vetter viewed human resource planning human resource planning as a “ process by which an organisation as a “ process by which an organisation should move form its current manpower should move form its current manpower

position to its desired manpower position to its desired manpower position .Through planning management position .Through planning management strives to have the right number and right strives to have the right number and right kind of people at the right places at the kind of people at the right places at the right time , doing things which result in right time , doing things which result in both the organisation and the individual both the organisation and the individual receiving maximum long-run benefit.”receiving maximum long-run benefit.”

Stainer “ Manpower planning is the strategy for the Stainer “ Manpower planning is the strategy for the acuisition,utilisation,improvement and preservation of an acuisition,utilisation,improvement and preservation of an organisation’s human resource s, It is aimed at coordinating the organisation’s human resource s, It is aimed at coordinating the requirements for and the availibility of different types of requirements for and the availibility of different types of employees”.employees”.

HRP has the following characteristics:-HRP has the following characteristics:-

HRP is all about looking forward. It involves forecasts of the HRP is all about looking forward. It involves forecasts of the manpower needs in a future time period so that adequate and manpower needs in a future time period so that adequate and timely provision may be made to meet the needs.timely provision may be made to meet the needs.

HRP is a continuing processHRP is a continuing process

Is an integral part of corporate planningIs an integral part of corporate planning

Basic purpose is to make optimum use of current and future HRBasic purpose is to make optimum use of current and future HR

HRP has both quantitative and qualitative aspects.HRP has both quantitative and qualitative aspects.

objectivesobjectives To recruit and retain To recruit and retain To foresee the impact of technologyTo foresee the impact of technology To foresee the employee turnover and make To foresee the employee turnover and make

arrangements for minimising the turnoverarrangements for minimising the turnover To improve the standards, skill , knowledge, To improve the standards, skill , knowledge,

abilityability To assess the surplus and shortageTo assess the surplus and shortage To minimise imbalances –right no, right type , To minimise imbalances –right no, right type ,

right time , right placeright time , right place To make the best use of human resource.To make the best use of human resource.

HRP at different levelHRP at different level

National Level-central govt- entire nationNational Level-central govt- entire nation Sectoral sector-particular sector like-Sectoral sector-particular sector like-

agricultural sector,Industrial sectoragricultural sector,Industrial sector Industry level -particular industryIndustry level -particular industry Unit level-organisationUnit level-organisation Department Level- particular departmentDepartment Level- particular department Job level- Particular job family like Mechanical Job level- Particular job family like Mechanical

engineerengineer

Factors affecting Human Factors affecting Human resource planresource plan

External FactorsExternal Factors Government Policies-labourpolicy,policy towards Government Policies-labourpolicy,policy towards

reserving certain jobs, sons of the soilreserving certain jobs, sons of the soil Level of Economic Development: determines the Level of Economic Development: determines the

level of HRD in the country and thereby the future level of HRD in the country and thereby the future demand for human resourcedemand for human resource

Business Environment-External business Business Environment-External business environmental factors influence the volume and mix environmental factors influence the volume and mix of production and thereby the future demand for of production and thereby the future demand for human resourcehuman resource

Level of technology- kindLevel of technology- kind International factors-demand for than resources and International factors-demand for than resources and

supply of human resources in various countries.supply of human resources in various countries.

Internal factorsInternal factors

Company policies and strategies-expansion , Company policies and strategies-expansion , diversification, alliancesdiversification, alliances

Human resource policies-quality, Human resource policies-quality, compensationcompensation

Job analysis – job description and job Job analysis – job description and job specification determines the kind of specification determines the kind of employees requiredemployees required

Time horizons-companies with stable competi Time horizons-companies with stable competi tive environment can plan for a long period tive environment can plan for a long period whereas companies with unstable competitive whereas companies with unstable competitive environment can plan only for short term environment can plan only for short term rangerange

Type and quality of information-any planning Type and quality of information-any planning

Process needs qualitative and accurate Process needs qualitative and accurate informationinformation

Companys production and operation policy-Companys production and operation policy-company policy like how much to produce and company policy like how much to produce and how much to buy from outsidehow much to buy from outside

Trade unions-no of working hours, recruitment Trade unions-no of working hours, recruitment sourcessources

Process of Manpower planningProcess of Manpower planning

(1).Analysing organisational plans- production (1).Analysing organisational plans- production plan, marketing plan, sales plan.detail plan, marketing plan, sales plan.detail programme should be formulated on the basis programme should be formulated on the basis of unit wise planof unit wise plan

(2)Forecasting the overall Human resource (2)Forecasting the overall Human resource requirement- the existing job design and requirement- the existing job design and analysis may thoroughly be reviewed keeping analysis may thoroughly be reviewed keeping in view the future capabilities, knowledge and in view the future capabilities, knowledge and skills of present employees. Jobs are skills of present employees. Jobs are redesigned-future plans and programmes, redesigned-future plans and programmes, work quantity and future activity or task work quantity and future activity or task analysis. Job analysis and future components analysis. Job analysis and future components forecast the quality of H.R in addition to forecast the quality of H.R in addition to quantity of human resource.quantity of human resource.

Important forecasting methods areImportant forecasting methods are

Managerial judgementsManagerial judgements Where there is no systematic data banks for Where there is no systematic data banks for

manpower information and job analysis there manpower information and job analysis there organisations resort to the management judgement organisations resort to the management judgement approach. The managers who are well acquainted approach. The managers who are well acquainted with the workload , efficiency and ability of with the workload , efficiency and ability of employees , think about their future load , future employees , think about their future load , future capabilities of employees and decide in the number capabilities of employees and decide in the number and type of human resources to be required. Here and type of human resources to be required. Here there is bottom up approach . The management at there is bottom up approach . The management at the top compares the proposal with the the top compares the proposal with the organisational plans and make necessary organisational plans and make necessary arrangements. This can also be a top-bottom arrangements. This can also be a top-bottom approach or participative approach approach or participative approach

STATISTICAL TECHNIQUESSTATISTICAL TECHNIQUES Ratio trend analysis-The ratios are calculated, for the past data Ratio trend analysis-The ratios are calculated, for the past data

relating to number of employees of each category and relating to number of employees of each category and production level, sales level, activity level/work load share production level, sales level, activity level/work load share estimated with an allowance for changes in the organization, estimated with an allowance for changes in the organization, methods and jobsmethods and jobs

Ex present level of production 1-1-2006Ex present level of production 1-1-2006 1500 units1500 unitsPresent number of foremen 3Present number of foremen 3Ratio is 3: 1500 i.e 1:500Ratio is 3: 1500 i.e 1:500Estimated production 2500Estimated production 2500Foreman required isForeman required isAny change may include-increase in social activities, change in Any change may include-increase in social activities, change in

valuesvalues1:4201:420

Mathematical modelsMathematical models A mathematical Model expresses the A mathematical Model expresses the

relationship between independent variable(e.g relationship between independent variable(e.g investment, production,sales etc) and investment, production,sales etc) and dependent variable(e.g number of employees dependent variable(e.g number of employees required).required).

Various factors influencing manpower needs Various factors influencing manpower needs are expressed in the form of a formula. are expressed in the form of a formula. Several types of models e.g regression, Several types of models e.g regression, optimization models, probabilistic models can optimization models, probabilistic models can be used. These are complex and appropriate be used. These are complex and appropriate only for large organisations.only for large organisations.

Demand forecastingDemand forecasting

Analysis of performance Analysis of Analysis of performance Analysis of productivityproductivity

The volume of output and analysis of the The volume of output and analysis of the change change

Its impact on manpower. In manpower Its impact on manpower. In manpower by by

Change in manpower demand changing Change in manpower demand changing productivityproductivity

Occasioned by changing the output which alters Occasioned by changing the output which alters over In volume or mix. over In volume or mix. time time

Direct analysis: ratios and Direct analysis: ratios and regressionregression

Derive ratio between two variables ( work load Derive ratio between two variables ( work load and manpower of a certain category) .and manpower of a certain category) .

Example AExample A Company 1Company 1 Rs x of sales require 10 salesmenRs x of sales require 10 salesmen Rs 2x of sales requires 20 salesmen Rs 2x of sales requires 20 salesmen

Company 2Company 2 Rsx of sales requires 10 salesman Rsx of sales requires 10 salesman Rs2x of sales requires 15 salesman (economies Rs2x of sales requires 15 salesman (economies

of scale)of scale) Opposite situation in case of saturation of market Opposite situation in case of saturation of market

Example BExample B Company 3Company 3 Rs x of sales last year required 10 salesmenRs x of sales last year required 10 salesmen Rs x of sales requires 10 salesmenRs x of sales requires 10 salesmen

Company4Company4 Rs x of sales last year required 10 salesmen Rs x of sales last year required 10 salesmen Rs x of sales this year requires 8 salesmenRs x of sales this year requires 8 salesmen The changing ratio can be dealt by linear regression The changing ratio can be dealt by linear regression

and we are concerned at the moment to apply such a and we are concerned at the moment to apply such a method to analyse performance.method to analyse performance.

The changing ratio can be dealt with by linear regression which The changing ratio can be dealt with by linear regression which can be applied to analyse performance. can be applied to analyse performance.

Manpower Manpower

Razor bladesRazor blades

It establishes the line of best fit and also provides a measure of its It establishes the line of best fit and also provides a measure of its accuracyaccuracy

The relationship between the variable is in the The relationship between the variable is in the linear form:linear form:

Y=a+bxY=a+bx Where a and b are constantsWhere a and b are constants Once the line of best fit has been established, it is Once the line of best fit has been established, it is

possible to predict changes.Thus for example possible to predict changes.Thus for example regression analysis mighr give a formula:regression analysis mighr give a formula:

Y=70+0.1xY=70+0.1x If production was 800 million blades in a year If production was 800 million blades in a year

Work study techniquesWork study techniques

In this method time and motionIn this method time and motion are used to analyze and are used to analyze and measure the work done .With the help of each studies measure the work done .With the help of each studies standard time required per unit of work is decided. The standard time required per unit of work is decided. The following example illustrates this method:following example illustrates this method:

ExampleExamplePlanned output for next year 50,000 unitsPlanned output for next year 50,000 unitsStandard hours per unit 2Standard hours per unit 2Planned hours required 50,000x2= 1,00,000Planned hours required 50,000x2= 1,00,000Productive hours per worker in the year 2000Productive hours per worker in the year 2000Number of workers required 1,00,000/2000=50Number of workers required 1,00,000/2000=50If the span of control is 10 then the no of supervisors If the span of control is 10 then the no of supervisors

requiredrequiredIs 50/10=5Is 50/10=5

Future demand for human resource depends on Future demand for human resource depends on several factors, some of which are given below:several factors, some of which are given below:

(1)(1) Employment trends- Trends in the company’s Employment trends- Trends in the company’s manpower can be judged by comparing and manpower can be judged by comparing and analyzing the staff during the past five years.analyzing the staff during the past five years.

(2) Replacement needs- These depend on death , (2) Replacement needs- These depend on death , retirement, resignation, and termination of retirement, resignation, and termination of employees. These can be assessed on the basis employees. These can be assessed on the basis of past experience and retirement situation in of past experience and retirement situation in future.future.

(3) productivity- improvements in productivity (3) productivity- improvements in productivity influence manpower requirements. Better influence manpower requirements. Better utilisation of existing manpower is one method of utilisation of existing manpower is one method of securing gains in productivity.securing gains in productivity.

(4) Absenteeism- while estimating demand for (4) Absenteeism- while estimating demand for manpower, the prevailing rate of absenteeism in the manpower, the prevailing rate of absenteeism in the company should be considered.The rate of company should be considered.The rate of absenteeism can be calculated as follows:absenteeism can be calculated as follows:

Absenteeism= Mandays lost due to absenteeism Absenteeism= Mandays lost due to absenteeism

Mandays worked + Mandays lostMandays worked + Mandays lost

(5) Expansion and growth- The companys growth plans (5) Expansion and growth- The companys growth plans and expansion programmes should be carefully and expansion programmes should be carefully analysed to judge their impact on manpower analysed to judge their impact on manpower requirements in future .requirements in future .

(3) Supply forecasting(3) Supply forecasting

The first step of forecasting the future supply of The first step of forecasting the future supply of human resource is to obtain the data and human resource is to obtain the data and information about the present human resource information about the present human resource inventoryinventory

Existing inventoryExisting inventory1.1. Head counts regarding total, department wise, sex wise, Head counts regarding total, department wise, sex wise,

designation-wise, skill wise, payroll wise etcdesignation-wise, skill wise, payroll wise etc

1.1. Job family inventory it includes the number and category of Job family inventory it includes the number and category of employees of each job family – related to same category employees of each job family – related to same category like clerks, cashiers- similar skill, similar operation like like clerks, cashiers- similar skill, similar operation like production engineer and maintenance engineer production engineer and maintenance engineer (Mechanical)(Mechanical)

3. Age inventory- it includes age wise number and category of 3. Age inventory- it includes age wise number and category of employees. It indicates age wise imbalances which can be employees. It indicates age wise imbalances which can be correlated in future selections and promotionscorrelated in future selections and promotions

Age Composition of human resourceAge Composition of human resource

DESIRABLE NVENTORY STRUCTURE

AGE-WISE IN EACH JOB FAMILY

DEFICIT AGEWISE IN EACHJOB FAMILY

ACTION PLANFOR RECRUITMENT

AGE WISE

SURPLUS AGE-WISE IN

EACH JOBFAMILY

PLAN FORREDOPLY

MENT

PRESENT INVENTORY

AGE-WISEJOB FAMILY

NET FUTURESUPPLY

AGEWISEIN EACH JOB

FAMILY

LOSSAGEWISE INEACHJOB

FAMILY

ADDITIONAL

AGEWISEIN EACH

JOBFAMILY

illustrated in Figure 1, the average age of the registered nurse (RN) workforce, which has risen steadily since the mid-1980s,). As the nursing workforce ages, organizations that are able to both retain their aging nursing staff and attract older nurses from outside their organization will be best suited to continue to operate successfully in an increasingly challenging labor marketplace.

SKILLS INVENTORY RENEWALFORECASTSKILLS INVENTORY RENEWALFORECASTMODELMODEL

• PERSONAL FACTORSPERSONAL FACTORS

Name Birth placeName Birth place

Age Occupation of parentsAge Occupation of parents

Dependants present addressDependants present address

Marital status permanent addressMarital status permanent address

telephone number if any)telephone number if any)

EDUCATION AND TRAININGEDUCATION AND TRAINING

School attended with yearsSchool attended with years

Degrees, Diplomas obtainedDegrees, Diplomas obtained

Training achievedTraining achieved

EXPERIENCE AND SKILLSEXPERIENCE AND SKILLS

Job areas special skills ( such as ability to Job areas special skills ( such as ability to speak/writespeak/write

Job titles foreign languages Job titles foreign languages

Job datesJob dates

Additional informationAdditional information• Salary test resultsSalary test results

• Grade performance Grade performance ratingsratings

• Absenteeism record location of Absenteeism record location of relativesrelatives

• Disciplinary record appraisal dataDisciplinary record appraisal data

• Career plans Any other Career plans Any other informationinformation

• Inventory of skill, experience,values, capabilitiesInventory of skill, experience,values, capabilities

• Inventory of qualifications and training including minute Inventory of qualifications and training including minute qualifications and training received.qualifications and training received.

• Inventory of salary grades- pay wise, allowances-wise Inventory of salary grades- pay wise, allowances-wise and total salary wise.and total salary wise.

• Gender wise inventoryGender wise inventory

• Inventory of past performance and future potentialitiesInventory of past performance and future potentialities

Employee information cardEmployee information card

• Employee No…………… Address………….. Employee No…………… Address………….. Town……………..Town……………..

• Dept…………….. Code……………… Dept…………….. Code……………… Position………………Position………………

• Exp Date………………..Exp Date………………..• Employee status : Regular/ part time/Employee status : Regular/ part time/• Shift :1/2/3Shift :1/2/3• Marital status Marital status

Married/Single/Widowed/separatedMarried/Single/Widowed/separated• No of dependent children : 1/2/3/4……..No of dependent children : 1/2/3/4……..• Relatives in company : yes/NoRelatives in company : yes/No• Union membership (Which one)…………………………..Union membership (Which one)…………………………..• Experience of skills : Experience of skills :

clerical/Mechanical/sales/supervisory/othersclerical/Mechanical/sales/supervisory/others• Special training :Departmental/on- the Special training :Departmental/on- the

job/ vestibulejob/ vestibule

• Accidents : Loss time (mts)………..Accidents : Loss time (mts)………..

Hospitalisation………..(Y/N)Hospitalisation………..(Y/N)

Members of the credit union : Y/NMembers of the credit union : Y/N

Absenteeism : Days………Absenteeism : Days………

Date Operator……….Date Operator……….

Potential lossesPotential losses

• The second step of supply is estimation of future The second step of supply is estimation of future losses of human resources of each department.losses of human resources of each department.

• The reasons for potential loss can be classified as (a) The reasons for potential loss can be classified as (a) Permanent total loss (b) permanent partial loss (c) Permanent total loss (b) permanent partial loss (c) temporary total loss (d) temporary partial losstemporary total loss (d) temporary partial loss

• (a) Permanent total loss is due to labour turnover .(a) Permanent total loss is due to labour turnover .

Labour turnover rate= number of employees left during Labour turnover rate= number of employees left during a specified perioda specified period

Average number of employees during the same period x Average number of employees during the same period x 100100

• Management has to calculate the rate of labour Management has to calculate the rate of labour turnover, conduct exit interviews. This helps to forecast turnover, conduct exit interviews. This helps to forecast the rate of potential loss, reasons for loss and reduce it. the rate of potential loss, reasons for loss and reduce it. Management also calculates labour stability index (rate Management also calculates labour stability index (rate of employees with certain period of experience to total of employees with certain period of experience to total numb of employees)numb of employees)

• (b) Permanent Partial loss:- consist of wastage of skills, (b) Permanent Partial loss:- consist of wastage of skills, capabilities etc due to ill health of employees, working capabilities etc due to ill health of employees, working conditions and occupational diseases. Conclusion of conditions and occupational diseases. Conclusion of morale studies or surveys are helpful to forecast the morale studies or surveys are helpful to forecast the loss of values, aptitude etc of the existing employeesloss of values, aptitude etc of the existing employees

• Temporary total lossTemporary total loss – absenteeism and deputation out – absenteeism and deputation out .past data about absenteeism, the reasons therefore, .past data about absenteeism, the reasons therefore, measures already taken or under implementation to measures already taken or under implementation to minimise absenteeism help to forecast loss of human minimise absenteeism help to forecast loss of human resource due to absenteeism. Deputation can be anticipated resource due to absenteeism. Deputation can be anticipated through agreements of one organisation with other through agreements of one organisation with other organisation.organisation.

• Temporary partial loss- include consultancy, advisory and Temporary partial loss- include consultancy, advisory and other services.other services.

• Potential additions- should also be estimated Potential additions- should also be estimated after forecasting potential loss. after forecasting potential loss.

Potential additionsPotential additions

• Permanent total additions to the organisation is new Permanent total additions to the organisation is new hires. It can be estimated based on workload, interim hires. It can be estimated based on workload, interim programme etc. In case of departments include programme etc. In case of departments include promotions, demotions and transfers within the promotions, demotions and transfers within the organisationorganisation

• Permanent partial addition consist of acquisition of new Permanent partial addition consist of acquisition of new skills, knowledge, values, aptitudes etc by the existing skills, knowledge, values, aptitudes etc by the existing employees.employees.

• Temporary total additions can be foreseen with the help Temporary total additions can be foreseen with the help of morale studies, surveys, organisational programmes, of morale studies, surveys, organisational programmes, general level of values. Deputation in, are estimated on general level of values. Deputation in, are estimated on the basis of agreement of the organisationthe basis of agreement of the organisation

• The multiple effect of promotions and transfers on The multiple effect of promotions and transfers on the total moves should be analysed.the total moves should be analysed.

• Future supply of Human = Present inventory of Future supply of Human = Present inventory of human resources Resources + The human resources Resources + The difference difference

between the potential between the potential additions and potential loss of human resources additions and potential loss of human resources

OROR

Present inventory of Present inventory of

Human resource + Potential additions Human resource + Potential additions potential losspotential loss

Analysing sources of supplyAnalysing sources of supply

• Sources of supply should be ensured with a view to Sources of supply should be ensured with a view to ensure the availability. Both internal and external ensure the availability. Both internal and external factors affecting manpower supply should be analysed.factors affecting manpower supply should be analysed.

• Internal factors include- training facilities, salary Internal factors include- training facilities, salary levels, benefits, inter-personal relations, company levels, benefits, inter-personal relations, company programmes, scope for self advancement and growth, programmes, scope for self advancement and growth, promotional opportunities, pride for creative and promotional opportunities, pride for creative and innovative ideas, providing challenging work etc.innovative ideas, providing challenging work etc.

• The external factors are classified into local factors The external factors are classified into local factors and national factorsand national factors

• Local factors- population density in the area, local Local factors- population density in the area, local unemployment level, availability of employees on part unemployment level, availability of employees on part time, temporary and casual basis, current and future time, temporary and casual basis, current and future competition for the similar categories ,outcome from competition for the similar categories ,outcome from local educational and training institutes, local transport local educational and training institutes, local transport and communication facilities, the attractiveness of the and communication facilities, the attractiveness of the area as a place to live, the traditional pattern of area as a place to live, the traditional pattern of employment and availability of manpower with employment and availability of manpower with required qualifications and skills.required qualifications and skills.

• National factors-Trend in the growth of working National factors-Trend in the growth of working population, training institutes and schemes in the population, training institutes and schemes in the country, outcome from technical, professional , country, outcome from technical, professional , vocational, and general educational level, cultural vocational, and general educational level, cultural factors, customs, national demand for certain factors, customs, national demand for certain categories of manpower like technologists, scientists, categories of manpower like technologists, scientists, management graduates, impact of governmentmanagement graduates, impact of government

• Employment regulationsEmployment regulations

(4)Estimating the net human resource requirements(4)Estimating the net human resource requirements

Net human resource requirements in terms of number and Net human resource requirements in terms of number and components are to be determined in relation to the overall components are to be determined in relation to the overall human resource requirements (Demand forecast) for future human resource requirements (Demand forecast) for future date and supply forecast for that date. The difference between date and supply forecast for that date. The difference between overall human requirements and future supply of human overall human requirements and future supply of human resource is to be found out.resource is to be found out.

(5) Action plan for redeployment, redundancy/ Retrenchment(5) Action plan for redeployment, redundancy/ Retrenchment

If future supply is estimated , the organization has to plan for If future supply is estimated , the organization has to plan for redeployment , redundancy etc – transferred- training or redeployment , redundancy etc – transferred- training or reorientation before redeployment. If surplus –consult with reorientation before redeployment. If surplus –consult with trade unions and redundancy/ retrenchmenttrade unions and redundancy/ retrenchment

Programmes for redeployment, redundancy/retrenchment Programmes for redeployment, redundancy/retrenchment programmesprogrammes

• OutplacementOutplacement

• Lay offLay off

• Leave of absence without pay- Leave of absence without pay- Help in Help in eliminating the unnecessary job in the phased mannereliminating the unnecessary job in the phased manner

• WORK SHARING- share the job among two employee work WORK SHARING- share the job among two employee work in or one-half time eachin or one-half time each

• REDUCED WORK HOURS- work less receive lessREDUCED WORK HOURS- work less receive less

• VRSVRS

• HIRING FREEZESHIRING FREEZES

• (6) FORECAST FUTURE SUPPLY FROM ALL THE (6) FORECAST FUTURE SUPPLY FROM ALL THE SOURCESSOURCES

-if deficit is forecasted- labour market, campus , -if deficit is forecasted- labour market, campus , consultancies, internal sources etcconsultancies, internal sources etc

(7) Action plan for recruitment , development etc. (7) Action plan for recruitment , development etc.

SUITABLE CANDIDATESINTERNAL RESOURCES

YES

PROMOTION, TRANFER, T&D

NOEXTERNAL SOURCE

R&S

• (8) Modify the organisational plan- (8) Modify the organisational plan- railwaysrailways

• (9) Retention plan- (9) Retention plan- adjustment of salary with adjustment of salary with the competitors, opportunities for career the competitors, opportunities for career development, provide training facilities, internal development, provide training facilities, internal promotion, assignment of challenging work, more promotion, assignment of challenging work, more conducive work environment, extensive conducive work environment, extensive participation in decision makingparticipation in decision making