manuel mira godinho, iseg utl - fctfonte: gpeari (2011), fluxo e situação profissional dos...
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Análise e caracterização do sistema de investigação e inovação em Portugal: Dinâmicas institucionais e falhas sistémicas
Manuel Mira Godinho, ISEG UTL
WORKSHOP 11-12 Dezembro de 2012
O Sistema Nacional de Investigação e Inovação: Desafios, forças e fraquezas rumo a 2020
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Onde estamos?
Os desafios
Respostas
Síntese
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Fonte: GPEARI (2011), Fluxo e situação profissional dos Doutorados em Portugal – 2009.
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TITLE Graduation rates at doctorate level, 2000 and 2009
SUBTITLE As a percentage of population in reference age cohort
SOURCE OECD (2011), Education at a Glance 2011: OECD Indicators and (2009) Education at a Glance 2009: OECD Indicators , OECD, Paris.4
1
48
62
53
44
48
45
43
48
42
43
46
52
45
46
43
53
40
38
46
49
41
51
44
30
27
49
48
46
51
63
52
44
44
41
01
23
4
CH
E
SW
E
PR
T
FIN
DE
U
SV
K
GB
R
AU
T
AU
S (2
00
8)
NL
D
DN
K
NO
R
US
A
SV
N
OE
CD
FR
A
NZ
L
GR
C (
20
07
)
CZ
E
IRL
RU
S
ISR
BE
L
ITA
(2
00
7)
CA
N (2
00
8)
KO
R
JP
N
ES
P
HU
N
ES
T
PO
L
ISL
BR
A
TU
R
ME
X
CH
L
IDN
%
20
00
Pe
rce
nta
ge
ofd
octo
rate
s
aw
ard
ed
to
wo
me
n
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Produção científica nacional referenciada internacionalmente
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
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Annual growth in publications 1996-2008
Fonte: The Royal Society (2011), Knowledge, networks and nations: Global scientific collaboration in the 21st century
Portugal: 12,26%
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Applications for national patents by residents, 1980-2006 + 2008-2009
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Patents 284 347 338 243 203
Utility models 84 109 123 127 122
Provisional patent applications
58 262 284 395
Total 368 514 723 654 720
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Onde estamos?
Os desafios
Respostas
Síntese
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Portugal: mudança de status
De catching up country (1950 - 2000) …
… a falling down country (2001 - ….?)
• Risco de contracção profunda de PIB ao longo da presente década
• Risco de brain drain irrecuperável
• Questão: como REVERTER tendência ???
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20% 40% 60% 80%
Interpersonal trust (share of people who think that most people can be trusted)
Fonte: World Value Survey, wave 2005-2008 Note: The “dotted” bars refer to OECD countries. For Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal and the Slovak Republic, data refer to the wave 1994-1999. For Norway data refer to the 1996.
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Change in interpersonal trust from the earliest to the latest survey in OECD countries. (Percentage difference base=earliest survey) Source: World Value Survey, wave 2005-2008. Note: For each country the years indicate the earliest and latest survey which collected information on interpersonal trust.
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Firms with national/international collaboration
on innovation, 2004-06, as a % of innovative firms
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Fin
lan
d
Sw
ede
n
Port
ugal
Spa
in
Ita
ly
National collaboration only
International collaboration%
OECD, Innovation microdata project based on CIS-2006, June 2009 and national data sources.
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Onde estamos?
Os desafios
Respostas
Síntese
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“Especialização Inteligente” (RIS3)
• Definição de Prioridades (concentração de esforços)
• Melhoria da competitividade
• Competitividade depende de “inovação”
• Inovação tecnológica + organizacional + social
• Consenso e reforço de capital social
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Competitividade + Prioridades
Competitividade?
• ↑ produtividade (VAB/L)
• ↑ quotas de mercado internacional
• [ + criação de emprego (qualificado) ; + sustentabilidade ]
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Prioridades + Competitividade Identificação de atividades com vantagem comparativa (dinâmica)
• Sectores existentes com fortes vantagens a nível global (stock de conhecimentos, recursos específicos, actores, projectos)
• Sectores / segmentos de mercado / com maior t.m.c.a (actual e a MLP) no mercado internacional (e com alguma base gerencial / cognitiva / know-how local)
• Tecnologias com maior potencial de aprendizagem
+
• Identificação de conexões entre sectores tecnologias segmentos de mercado produtos
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Prioridades em investigação
• Necessário estabelecer metodologia • Matching com prioridades económicas
• Desenvolvimento de “capacidades” “countries such as Korea (South), Taiwan and Singapore, which were among the prime success stories, placed great emphasis on generating what later became known as “technological capabilities” through a concerted effort by public and private sector actors” (Fagerberg et al. 2009)
Risco: erros.
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“the right mix”
• Inovação Dínamo da competitividade
• Catálise Inovação + Empreendedorismo
+ Criatividade
+ Instituições apropriadas
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Empreendedorismo
• Origem de novas empresas spin offs de organizações existentes (+ IDE)
• Diferentes qualidades de empreendedorismo (EN versus EO; EBC…)
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Fonte: Sarmento e Nunes (2011)
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Global Creativity Index
• GCI - Composite measure of national competitiveness based on Richard Florida’s “3Ts”: Technology, Talent and Tolerance.
• GCI - “intended to capture the ability of a country to harness and mobilize creative talent for innovation, entrepreneurship, industry formation and
long-run prosperity.”
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GCI 2011
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Apple – A empresa criativa
• Apple 5.281 patentes, 895 (17%) são “design patents” • Steve Jobs is quoted as inventor in 362 patents, of
which 311 (86%) are design patents.
Fontes: US Patent And Trademark Office ; http://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/10750/86-of-steve-jobs-patents-were-design-patents
• Steve Jobs boasted that he had "patented the hell out of the iPhone," and not because Apple had invented the underlying touch screen technologies. In many cases it hadn't. But it had
pulled those technologies together into a distinctive design that slowly, then with gathering force, came to dominate the smartphone market.
• Challenging Samsung in the courts Utility patents
constituted 3 of the patents at issue in the trial; design patents were the other 4.
Fontes: http://www.informationweek.com/hardware/handheld/apple-beats-competition-with-design-and/240006830
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“Instituições” (a parte não visível do iceberg)
• Instituições “regras do jogo” formais e informais
• Dimensão soft, descurada valores, cultura económica...
• Sinais / Perfis de incentivos ( + e - )
• Atitudes / Comportamentos
• Determinam “capital social”
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Onde estamos?
Os desafios
Respostas
Síntese
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Síntese: Dualismo FRAQUEZAS FORÇAS
Demografia Patentes e PI Publicação Experiência
Consenso Ø Capital Social / Colaboração RH avançados Atitude pró-inovação
Visão Ø Matching S - D Algumas Organizações Qualificadas
Infra-estrutura
Qualificação Pop. Activa
Empreendedorismo (EO, EBC) Sector Exportador resistente Especialização “fraca”