march 2012 str presentation
TRANSCRIPT
1
Statistically Speaking: The Past, The Present, and the Future
Jan D. Freitag
Senior Vice President
2
www.hotelnewsnow.com Click on “Hotel Data Presentations”
3
Supply / Demand Imbalance Drove Last 12 Months
% Change
• Room Supply* 1.8 bn 0.4%
• Room Demand* 1.06 bn 4.6%
• Occupancy 60.3% 4.2%
• A.D.R. $102 3.8%
• RevPAR $61 8.2%
• Room Revenue* $109 bn 8.7%
12 Months Ending February 2012, Total US Results * All Time High
4
3.1
2.6
3.9
2.9
4.1
3.7
4.0
3.5
4.1 4.0
4.4
3.5
3.9 4.0
3.5 3.6
* Total US, ADR $ % Change, by Month, 1/11 – 2/12, by Week 3/3 – 3/10
ADRs Are Growing (But Will Comps Get More Difficult?)
3/3 3/10 2/12 1/11 4/11 7/11
Weekly data 10/11 1/12
5
ADRs Are Growing Across All Channels
112
127
134
85
93
118
59
99
112
127
133
84
95
122
59
98
115
129
137
87
102
123
65
102
Brand.com CRS/Voice GDS Prop Direct/Other
OTA - Merchant
OTA - Retail OTA- Opaque STAR Total
2009 2010 2011
*ADR by Channel for Chain Affiliated Hotels YE 2009 - 2011
6
Strong Demand Growth, Supply Not An Issue
1.1 1.5
1.8 1.9
0.8
0.2
6.2
4.5
5.9
6.7
4.6
3.5
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Supply
Demand
*Supply / Demand % Change, by Scale, 12 Months Ending 2/12 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification
7
Entering 2nd Stage Of Recovery Where ADR % > OCC %
5.1
2.9
4.0
4.7
3.7
3.3
5.2
3.6 4.0
3.0
2.2
2.9
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Occupancy
ADR
*OCC / ADR % Change, by Scale, 12 Months Ending 2/12 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification
8
Total United States Forecast 2012 / 2013 Key Performance Indicator % Change
2012 Forecast
2013 Forecast
Supply 0.8% 1.4%
Demand 1.3% 2.0%
Occupancy 0.5% 0.5%
ADR 3.8% 4.4%
RevPAR 4.3% 4.9%