march 2013, us leveraged loan market analysis

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US Leveraged Finance Market Update March, 2013 Steve Miller - Managing Director Text

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The loan market cooled slightly in February in response to more plentiful supply. Still, with demand robust, conditions remained highly charged. In early March, the market heated up again. Participants remain constructive on the loan market, though the usual macro concerns persist. Check out LCD's new, free web sites, LeveragedLoan.com and HighYieldBond.com http://www.leveragedloan.com http://www.highyieldbond.com/ * Job postings * Online Loan Market and High Yield Primer * News and analysis * Market Stats See the video presentation: http://youtu.be/4xjijq-tqfg Connect with LCD Facebook: http://www.lcdcomps.com/facebook Like LCD on Facebook for monthly analysis on LBO/Private equity stats, as well as Default/Restructuring analysis. LinkedIn: http://www.lcdcomps.com/linkedin There are over 10,000 market contacts in LCD's Leveraged Loan Group Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/lcdnews News, commentary, other leveraged finance info Web: http://www.lcdcomps.com Contact: [email protected]

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Page 1: March 2013, US Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

US Leveraged Finance Market UpdateMarch, 2013

Steve Miller - Managing Director

Text

Page 2: March 2013, US Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

$0B

$110B

$220B

$330B

$440B

$550B

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Text

Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data 1/1

- 3/7

/13

1/1

- 3/7

/12

Pro RataInstitutional

New-Issue Loan Volume – by Year

Page 3: March 2013, US Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

89

91

94

96

98

2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 4/12 6/12 8/12 10/12 12/12 2/13

S&P/LSTA Index – Average Price

Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data

Page 4: March 2013, US Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

Visible Loan Flows

Text

Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data, EPFR

-$1B

$2B

$5B

$7B

$10B

2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 1/13 2/13

CLO IssuanceLoan Mutual Flows

Page 5: March 2013, US Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

S&P/LSTA Index Loans Outstanding

Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data

$500B

$513B

$526B

$539B

$552B

$565B

5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 1/13 2/13

Page 6: March 2013, US Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

$0B

$25B

$50B

$75B

$100B

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%

15%

30%

45%

60%

VolumePercent

New-Issue First-Lien Covenant-Lite Loan Volume – by Year

Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data

1/1

- 3/7

/13

1/1

- 3/7

/12

Page 7: March 2013, US Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

Average New-Issue Clearing Yield of First Lien Loans

Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data

3%

4%

5%

7%

8%

9%

2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 4/12 6/12 8/12 10/12 12/12 2/13

All-BBAll-B

Page 8: March 2013, US Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

Repricing Volume

Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data

$0B

$10B

$20B

$30B

$40B

$50B

3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/1211/1212/12 1/13 2/13

Page 9: March 2013, US Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

0%

2%

5%

7%

10%

12%

12/98 8/00 4/02 12/03 8/05 4/07 12/08 8/10

Loan Default Rate

Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data

2/13

Page 10: March 2013, US Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

• Demand outlook also strong:

Loan Market – Outlook

> CLOs issuance bounces back

• Macro concerns persist

> Retail flows running hot

> Institutional allocations also

• Robust near-term deal calendar, intermediate term more hazy

Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data

Page 11: March 2013, US Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

www.linkedin.com/groups/LCD-Leveraged-Loan-Group-2092432LCD Leveraged Loan Group ... 10,000+ contacts

www.twitter.com/lcdnewsHeadlines, market chatter

www.facebook.com/lcdcomps/Daily Playbook, headlines, video analysis

Follow LCD

www.lcdcomps.comnews, analysis, research, archives

www.highyieldbond.comFree website covering the HY market

www.leveragedloan.comFree website covering the leveraged loan market

Page 12: March 2013, US Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

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