march 2016 the abacus prompt™ - abacus · pdf filemarch 2016 monthly business review...

The Abacus Prompt™ Monthly Business Review – Pakistan

March 2016

March 2016

Issue 63, Vol.6

Consulting | Technology | Outsourcing

*Cumulative To Date

0

100

200

300

400

500

28000

30000

32000

34000

36000

38000

Average Daily Volume (shares mn) (rhs) KSE-100 Index (lhs)

Pakistan Rupee Monthly Performance

Currency Open Rate Close Rate Change

104.76 104.19 0.54%

146.08 150.61 -3.10%

113.62 116.68 -2.69%

Key Stats

Indicator Year to Date

Current Month

MoM Direction

CPI Inflation 2.64% 3.94%

Forex Reserves USD 20.89 bn* USD 0.54 bn

Exports USD 15.64 bn USD 1.74 bn

Imports USD 32.78 bn USD 3.59 bn

Trade Deficit USD 17.14 bn USD 1.85 bn

Foreign

Remittances

USD 14.19 bn USD 1.47 bn

Tax Collection PKR 2,043.0 bn PKR 286.8 bn

Key Commodities - Monthly Price Movement

Commodity Description Opening Price

Closing Price

Change

Precious Metals

Gold 24Karat

(PKR/Tola) 48,100 49,500 2.91%

Silver (PKR/Tola) 660 690 4.55%

Oil

Crude Oil (US)

(USD/bbl). NYMEX 33.75 38.34 13.60%

High Speed Diesel

(PKR/Ltr) 75.79 71.12 -6.16%

Motor Spirit

(PKR/Ltr) 71.25 62.77 -11.90%

Agriculture & Cement

KCA- Cotton

(PKR/ maund) 5,300 5,300 0.00%

Urea (PKR/Bag) 1,880 1,850 -1.60%

Cement (Avg.)

(PKR/50kg) 515.94 511.76 -0.81%

Monthly Snapshot

Stock Market

The KSE-100 index increased by 5.64% MoM, closing at 33,139 pts

Average daily turnover increased 7.35% MoM to 146 mn shares, and

average traded value increased ~3% MoM to USD 71 mn

Net FIPI outflows were recorded at ~USD 11.3 mn, lower ~72% MoM

Top growing sectors during the month were the Oil & Gas Exploration,

Cement and Food Production sectors

Currency and Commodity Markets

The PKR appreciated by 0.54% MoM against the USD, and depreciated

3.10% and 2.69% MoM against the GBP and the EUR respectively

Domestic Gold prices increased 2.91% MoM, and similarly Silver prices

increased 4.55% MoM

WTI Crude increased by 13.60% MoM. Domestic HSD and Motor Spirit

prices -reflecting lower oil prices in Feb- decreased by 6.16% and

11.90% MoM respectively

Cotton (KCA) prices remained unchanged at PKR 5,300/maund

Urea prices decreased about 1.60% MoM to PKR 1,850/bag

Cement dispatches were ~3.58 mn tons, higher 3.9% MoM and 19.3%

YoY. Prices decreased marginally by 0.81% to close at PKR 511.76/50kg

Macroeconomic Profile

The policy rate remained unchanged at 6% Forex Reserves increased by USD 0.54 bn MoM to reach USD 20.89 bn

CPI Inflation was recorded at 3.90% YoY

Exports decreased by 2.74% MoM to USD 1.74 bn and imports

increased by 8.78% MoM to USD 3.59 bn; resultantly, the trade deficit

widened by 22.41% MoM to USD 1.85 bn

Foreign remittances decreased by 3.14% MoM to reach USD 1.47 bn

Federal tax collection was recorded at about PKR 289 bn in March

against a target of PKR 300 mn for the month

FDI was recorded at USD 161.7 mn in Mar, up from USD 103 mn in Feb

News Highlights

72 people were killed and 300 injured by a blast in Lahore’s Gulshan-i-

iqbal Park, prompting a military led crackdown on militancy and PM

Sharif to cancel his visit to the US to attend the Nuclear Security

Summit

Shahbaz Taseer was recovered by security and intelligence forces from

Balochistan, nearly five years after his kidnapping in 2011

Security forces in Balochistan arrested Kul Bushan Yadav, a former

Indian Navy Officer and an alleged RAW Agent

About 2000 people protested the execution of Mumtaz Qadri for 4

days at the D-Chowk within the capital's Red Zone

The GoP approved a new Automotive Development Policy 2016-21

Twin blasts in Belgium’s Zaventum international airport and another at

a metro station collectively killed over 35 people and injured over 230

China’s credit rating outlook was cut to negative from stable by both

Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s

12 Month KSE-100 Performance

USD

EUR

GBP

http://www.dawn.com/news/654867

March 2016

Issue 63, Vol. 6

The Abacus Prompt™

Monthly Business Review - Pakistan

The Abacus Prompt™ The Abacus Prompt™ The Abacus Prompt™

KSE-100

Index Performance Mar 1 31,369

5.64% Mar 31 33,139

KSE-100 Market Cap - (PKR Billion)

Mar 1 6,587 4.99%

Mar 31 6,916

KSE 100 Best Performing Stocks of the Month

Company Opening Price Closing Price Change

IFSL 23.99 33.27

40.08%

SING 21.00

28.88

35.21%

ACPL 161.00 204.00

26.04%

EFOODS 127.35 159.24 25.71%

DFML 7.63

7.45

24.03%

KSE 100 Worst Performing Stocks of the Month

Company Opening Price Closing Price Change

AMBL 13.80 8.80 -40.54% CLOV 67.46

47.77

-25.65%

TRSM 4.10

3.07 -25.12%

NOPK 126.93 97.00 -22.72%

RUBY 4.09 3.00 -21.05%

Top Picks (Stocks Offering Maximum Upside Potential)

Company Closing Price Target Price Potential

Eli

xir

PAEL 60.47 83.00 37.26%

UBL 151.22 195.00 28.95%

FCCL 41.91 45.60 9.88%

AH

L UBL 151.22 206.00 36.23%

ENGRO 315.70 424.10 34.34%

EFOODS 159.24 170.00 6.76%

AK

D FCCL 41.91 50.00 19.30%

EFOODS 159.24 179.40 12.66%

FFBL 51.02 71.90 40.93%

FS

NRL 270.49 370.00 36.79%

INDU 947.24 1160.00 22.46%

APL 430.84 580.00 34.62%

Source: Abacus Research, KSE

Stock Market

During March 2016, the benchmark KSE-100 increased by 5.64% MoM, closing above the 33k point level at 33,139 pts. This translated into a gain of ~PKR 330 bn in market capitalization.

Index performance during the month was driven by broad based local participation, where average daily turnover increased to 146 million shares (higher 7.35% MoM); similarly, average traded value increased ~3% MoM to USD 71 mn. Although foreigners remained net sellers during the month, foreign selling experienced a significant slowdown during March, where net FIPI outflows decreased by 72% MoM to USD 11.3 mn (lowest in FY 16 TD). Index performance was driven by gains in the Oil & Gas Exploration and Cement sectors; rising int’l oil prices and robust growth in dispatches served to solidify investors’ conviction on the earnings outlook of both sectors. The rally was also supported by rising global commodity prices, stability in regional and international markets, expectations regarding reforms by the SECP to encourage volumes and liquidity on the PSX, and heightened anticipation of the reclassification of Pakistan to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

The sectors that posted the largest returns during the month were the Oil & Gas Exploration, Cement and Food Production sectors; these sectors grew 13.6%, 10.7% and 9.3% MoM respectively.

Source: Bloomberg

Pakistan lagged behind its regional peers in terms of relative forward P/E valuations in March. The Indian market boasted the highest forward P/E.

The highest traded individual stock was NIB with a total of ~207 mn shares traded during the month of March.

Graph Sources: Abacus Research, KSE

-16.5% -12.1%

-3.2% -2.1% -7.4% -8.4%

-1.8%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30% Regional Comparison

Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore Pakistan China India Thailand

8.5 11.0

13.0 14.9 16.5

18.1

13.0

0

5

10

15

20 Regional Valuation P/E

Pakistan Hong Kong Singapore Thailand Malaysia India China

109 122 184 201 207

Highest Traded Stocks on KSE (Million Shares)

DCl JSCL KEL TRG NIB

March 2016

Issue 63, Vol. 6




Pakistan Rupee Monthly Performance

Currency Open Rate Close Rate Change

104.76 104.19 0.54%

146.08 150.61 -3.10%

113.62 116.68 -2.69%

27.91 27.78 0.47%

28.49 28.37 0.42%

15.97 16.34 -2.32%

0.93 0.86 -7.53%

KIBOR Monthly Movement

Tenor Open Rate Close Rate Change

1-Month 6.48 6.50 0.31% 3-Month 6.35 6.35 0.00% 6-Month 6.35 6.36 0.16%

Key Commodities Monthly Price Movement

Commodity Description Opening Price

Closing Price

Change

Precious Metals

Gold

24Karat (PKR/Tola)

48,100 49,500 2.91%

Gold Spot (USD/oz) NY-Close 1,223 1,225 0.16%

Silver (PKR/Tola) 660 690 4.55%

Silver Spot (USD/oz)

NY-Close 14.70 15.22 3.54%

Gold- Silver Ratio

GSR 72.88 71.74

Oil

Crude Oil (US)

(USD/bbl). NYMEX 33.75 38.34 13.60%

Furnace Oil

(PKR/Ton ) 20,876 20,876 0.00%

High Speed Diesel

(PKR/Ltr) 75.79 71.12 -6.16%

Motor Spirit

(PKR/Ltr) 71.25 62.77 -11.90%

Agriculture & Cement

KCA- Cotton

(PKR/ maund)

5,300 5,300 0.00%

Urea (PKR/Bag) 1,880 1,850 -1.60%

Cement (Avg.)

(PKR/50kg) 515.94 511.76 -0.81%

Currency Markets

United States Dollar

The Dollar Index declined 4% MoM against a basket of major currencies to end at 94.59. Major reasons for the decline include a cut in growth rate and inflation forecasts by the US Fed, as well as dovish comments from the Fed’s chairwoman Janet Yellen regarding the number of times the Fed expects to raise rates in 2016, which served to exacerbated the dollar sell-off. Resultantly, the PKR appreciated by 0.54% against the USD during March.

Euro, Great British Pound and Japanese Yen

The Euro appreciated against major currencies – despite rate cuts further into negative territory - after ECB President Mario Draghi appeared to play down the potential for additional rate cuts; the Euro gained 2.69% MoM against the PKR. The Yen also appreciated against the PKR by 7.53% MoM despite negative interest rates; the yen has been bolstered both by its re-emergence this year as a haven currency amid uncertain global markets. After falling to a 7-year low against the USD last month, the pound also bounced back, strengthening over 3% MoM against the PKR during Mar; however, continued Brexit concerns are expected to limit any further gains by the Sterling. The PKR fell 2.32% against the Yuan as the PBOC guided the Yuan up against major currencies.

KIBOR

KIBOR rates for all three tenures remained largely unchanged during Mar.

Commodity Markets

Precious Metals

In Pakistan, gold prices increased 2.91% MoM, whereas Silver prices increased by 4.55% MoM. In the intl. market, gold prices remained largely unchanged as international commodity, currency and equity markets remained relatively stable. However, international silver prices increased about 3.5% MoM.

Oil

WTI crude oil continued its rally during March, gaining 13.60% MoM. The rise in prices was largely a result of a decline in U.S. inventories and drilling, hopes that exporters could freeze output, and a depreciating US dollar (a depreciating US dollar often pushes oil prices higher, as Crude is priced in dollars and becomes more attractive for holders of other currencies when the USD declines). Going forward, a meeting of major oil producers will take place in Doha on April 17, focused on freezing crude oil production at current levels to balance the supply-demand gap. Domestic HSD and Motor Spirit prices - set during the first of Mar - declined 6.16% and 11.90% MoM, reflecting lower oil prices of Feb 2016.

Agriculture

In March, Cotton prices remained unchanged and domestic Urea prices declined by 1.60% MoM. Cotton production in Pakistan is expected to increase as yields recover. The National Fertilizer Marketing Limited revealed that five contractors had misappropriated PKR 1.6 billion from urea stock supplies.

Cement

Total cement dispatches during March were ~3.58 mn tons, up 3.90% MoM and 19.34% YoY. Of this, local dispatches were ~3.05 mn tons, up 2.25% MoM. The growth in dispatches can partially be attributed to a rise export dispatches, recorded at 0.70 mn tons in March, up 50.22% MoM.

USD

GBP

JPY

EUR

SAR

AED

CNY

Sources for the above: SBP, XE.com, Investats, Bloomberg, FX.pk and KITCO

March 2016

Issue 63, Vol. 6




Economy of Pakistan

Source: SBP, FBS, Statpak, FBR (P): Provisional

Monetary Policy

Following the last MPS statement, the SBP continued with its accommodative monetary policy that saw the policy rate being kept unchanged at 6% for March 2016. Key factors in the SBP’s MPS decision remain improving economic indicators, such as increasing inflation, an uptick in credit to the private sector, increasing energy availability (and consequently increased LSM growth), healthy foreign reserves and growth in federal tax collection.

While low oil prices had kept inflation subdued during FY16TD, rebounding international crude prices, combined with a forecasted rise in food prices associated with the upcoming Ramadan season, CPI inflation is expected to accelerate going forward. The IMF forecasts CPI inflation to inch up to 4.5% YoY by the end of FY 16. As a result, according to some analysts, further rate cuts are unlikely. The IFM similarly has advised the SBP to maintain a prudent monetary policy stance going forward. However, some analysts suggest a rate hike may be a possibility before the end of CY 16 if oil prices continue to rise, exports growth remains stagnant, and if forex reserves growth slows after the completion of the IFM program.

Tax Collection

The FBR reported a provisional tax collection of about PKR 286.8 bn in March, registering a 24.92% YoY increase; however, this was still short of the March target of PKR 300 bn. As of 9MFY16, the FBR reported a total tax collection of about PKR 2.043 tr, and therefore the GoP is still well behind its FY16 revenue collection target of PKR 3.104 tr. Some analysts expect additional mini-budget’s to be levied by the GoP in the near future, as part of IMF loan conditions.

Additionally, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar extended the last date of filing of returns under the Voluntary Tax Scheme (VTS) to April 30; earlier, the date had been extended from March 15 to March 31.

Power Sector

Nepra approved a PKR 4.36 per unit reduction in the power tariff for all Discos (except K-Electric and Lifeline customers), in view of cheaper fuel prices for the month of Feb.

Nepra issued a PKR 10 mn fine on K-electric, stating the firm failed to provide uninterrupted electric power services to its consumers and for deliberately under-utilizing its available generation capacity. This follows serious complaints by consumers of K-electric due to extended hours of load shedding, system failures and power supply

breakdowns.

The import of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) has improved the gas supply/demand situation and has allowed the GoP to provide a greater availability of CNG to stations, fertilizer plants, the textile industry, among other industries. With the import of 400 Million Cubic Feet per Day (MMCFD) of LNG, the gas supply/demand situation has improved by around 23.5%. Out of 400 MMCFD of LNG, on average 300 MMCFD is being supplied to different IPP’s, 50 MMCFD to fertilizer plants, and 50 MMCFD to Punjab based CNG stations. As a result, retail prices of CNG were cumulatively cut by PKR 13.5/liter during the month, a 24.37% MoM decrease. Additionally, the CCI is expected to reverse the deregulation of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) business after almost 16 years.

Inflation

According to the PBS, CPI remained largely flat in March and was recorded at 3.94% YoY in March against 4.02% YoY in Feb 2016. Food inflation similarly remained unchanged at 3.7% YoY, whereas Core inflation increased slightly to 4.7% YoY from 4.5% YoY in the previous month. Average 9MFY16 inflation was recorded at 2.64%, compared to 5.12% for the corresponding period of FY 15. The economy is on track to meet or exceed the GoP’s average inflation target of 6% during FY16. The IMF forecasts average inflation of 3.7% for FY 16.

14.30 13.57 13.50 13.20 12.90 14.90 15.15 16.13 16.66

17.68 17.01 18.71 18.82 18.49

20.07 19.85 19.82 20.81 20.28 20.35 20.89

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Billion)

FY2015 FY2016

2.1 1.9

2.1 1.6 2.0 1.7

1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7

3.1 3.4

3.7 3.4

3.8 3.5

3.9 3.9 3.8 3.5

3.3 3.6

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Imports and Exports (USD Billions)

Exports Imports Trade Deficit

1.65

1.32

1.71

1.38 1.32

1.58

1.37 1.39

1.58 1.64 1.66

1.82 1.66

1.53

1.78

1.54 1.59 1.64

1.46 1.52 1.47


Foreign Remmitances (USD Billion)

FY2015 FY2016

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Inflation

Food Inflation Core Inflation CPI

124.2

178.9

234.7

182.8 180.9

270.3

173.4 192.7

237.1

198.5

237.4

369.0

143.2

181.0

259.6

223.0 221.0

341.0

209.0

161.8

286.8


Federal Tax Collection (PKR Billion)

FY 2015 FY 2016

March 2016

Issue 63, Vol. 6




FY15 (B) FY15

(Revised)

FY16 (B)

Real GDP Growth 5.1% 4.2% 5.5%

GDP (mp) (PKR bn) 29,078 27,384 30,672

Average CPI 8% 4.8% 6%

Remittances (USD bn) 16.9 18.7 17.2

Total Debt (PKR bn) 17,069 17,757 19,017

Total Debt (% of GDP) 58.7 64.8 62.0

Exports (fob) (USD bn) 23.4 24.1 25.5

Imports (fob) (USD bn) 45.6 41.3 43.3

Tax Collection (PKR bn) 3,129 2,910 3,418

Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) 4.9 5.0 4.3

Current Account Deficit (% of GDP)

1.0 0.8 1.0

Sovereign Credit Ratings (foreign and local currency debt)

S&P: B- / Positive / C (Foreign and Local-Short and Long term)

Moody’s: B3/Stable (LT Issuer Rating-foreign and local currency)

Fitch: B/Stable (LT Issuer Rating-foreign and local currency)

Economy of Pakistan

FY15 (B)

FY15 (Revised)

FY16 (B)

Real GDP Growth 5.1% 4.2% 5.5%

GDP (mp) (PKR bn) 29,078 27,384 30,672

Average CPI 8% 4.8% 6%

Remittances (USD bn) 16.9 18.5 17.2

Total Debt (PKR bn) 17,069 17,225 19,017

Total Debt (% of GDP) 58.7 62.9 62.0

Exports (fob) (USD bn) 23.4 24.2 NA

Imports (fob) (USD bn) 45.6 41.1 NA

Tax Collection (PKR bn) 3,129 2,910 3,418

Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) 4.9 5.0 4.3

Current Account Balance (% of GDP)

-1.0 -0.8 -1.0

Economy of Pakistan

Major News & Events

Source: SBP, Economic Survey of Pakistan, Budget Review FY16, Planning Commission. IMF Public Information Notice No.12/135 Nov 2012 (P): Provisional; (B): Budgeted; (e): Estimated; Proj.: Projections

Sovereign Credit Ratings (foreign and local currency debt):

Standard & Poor’s: B-/ Stable/ C Moody’s: B3 – Stable (foreign and local currency debt)

(P=Provisional, B=Budgeted)

The IMF approved a USD 502 mn tranche for Pakistan under the 10th

review of the EFF

The Strategic Trade Policy Framework (2015-2018) was announced,

whereby the GoP set an annual export target of USD 35 billion by 2018

A few prominent MQM members defected from the party and joined

Mustafa Kamal’s new Pak Sar Zameen Party

The NA approved the Futures Market Bill 2016, aimed at regulating the

futures market and protecting investors

Finance Minister Dar extended the 0.4% WHT on banking transactions

till the end of Mar 2016

The Supreme Court allowed former president retired Gen Pervez

Musharraf to travel abroad

The CCI decided to postpone the nation’s population and housing

census

Twin blasts in Belgium’s Zaventum international airport and another at

a metro station collectively killed over 35 people and injured over 230

Myanmar’s parliament elected Htin Kyaw as president, a close

confidant of Aung San Suu Kyi West Indies beat England to win the Word Twenty20 2016 Cup

A car bomb killed 34 and injured 125 in Ankara; Turkey’s capital was

attacked for a second time in less than a month

China’s credit rating outlook was cut to negative from stable by both

Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s

Other Key Indicators

Forex reserves were recorded at USD 20.89bn in March, up 2.65% MoM and up 18.16% YoY. Reserves held with the SBP were USD 16.08 bn (up 3.65% MoM and up 28.45% YoY) and with commercial banks USD 4.81 bn (down 0.54% MoM and 7% YoY). The increase in forex reserves is largely a result of IMF tranches provided to the GoP during the year.

Overseas remittances during March amounted to USD 1.47 bn, down 3.14% MoM and 8.58% YoY. The largest inflows in March came from Saudi Arabia (USD 506 mn), the UAE (USD 320 mn) and the US (USD 184 mn). The overall share of GCC countries in overseas remittances to Pakistan was 66.73%.

According to the PBS, Pakistan’s exports were recorded at USD 1.74 bn, down 2.74% MoM; reasons for the monthly increase include a depreciating PKR relative to the Euro. Export growth continues to be hindered by weak growth in the EU and Chinese economies (major Pakistani export markets), as well as low global commodity prices. Although increased trade with Iran is expected to aid export figures, the GoP is still well behind the FY 16 export target of USD 25.5 bn (9MFY16 export figures were recorded at USD 15.64 bn).

Imports recorded an increase of 8.78% MoM to reach USD 3.59 bn. Major reasons explaining the MoM rise in the import bill include rebounding international oil prices. As a result, the trade deficit was recorded at about USD 1.85 bn in March, increasing 22.41% from Feb 2016.

According to the latest figures by the SBP, Pakistan’s current account deficit (CAD) for Jan was USD 610 mn. Resultantly, 7MFY16 CAD was recorded at USD 2.04 bn, decreasing 23% YoY from USD 2.64 bn in the corresponding period of last year. As a percentage of GDP, the CAD has decreased to 1.2% from 1.7% during the 7MFY16. The CAD has narrowed on a YoY basis largely due to growth in foreign remittances, a reduction in the import bill (due to lower global crude oil prices) and inflows from the IMF.

Furthermore, Wapda hydropower generation rose to a record 6,884 MW in a single day in Sep, reportedly as a result of efficient operations and maintenance.

News on new power projects includes:

Gas discovered by OGDC

IMF report says Oil will remain low in the future

KEL signs deal for coal fired plant

IFC agreed to invest USD 100 mn

72 people were killed and 300 injured by a blast in Lahore’s Gulshan-i-iqbal

Park, prompting a military led crackdown on militancy and PM Sharif to

cancel his visit to the US to attend the nuclear security summit

The son of former Punjab governor Salman Taseer, Shahbaz Taseer, was

recovered by security and intelligence forces from Balochistan, nearly five

years after his kidnapping in 2011

MSCI stated it would begin discussions to reclassify Pakistani stocks in its

benchmark Emerging Markets Index; the final decision will be announced

in June 2016

Security forces in Balochistan arrested Kul Bushan Yadav, a former Indian

Navy Officer and an alleged RAW Agent; India denied links to Yadav

PM Sharif accepted the resignation of Salman Aslam Butt, appointing

Ashtar Ausaf Ali, his adviser on law, as attorney general of Pakistan

The GoP approved a new Automotive Development Policy 2016-2021

aimed at facilitating the market entry and establishment of manufacturing

units of foreign carmakers in Pakistan

Retail prices of CNG were cumulatively cut by PKR 13.5/liter during the

month , a 24.37% MoM decrease

About 2000 people protested the execution of Mumtaz Qadri for 4 days at

the D-Chowk within the capital's Red Zone

IMF Pakistan Resident Mission Chief Dr. Tokhir Mirzoev expressed his view

that Pakistan’s economy is steadily improving and is not at the verge of

bankruptcy, as some economists assessed

http://www.dawn.com/news/654867

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