march 2018 ceri natural gas report · 2019-06-22 · ceri natural gas report page 2 production in...

Relevant • Independent • Objective

The North American natural gas market is seethed, the lingering oversupplied market is supported by low breakeven costs of production that push most of the price indices in a downward trend. Over the 2010-2017 period, the natural gas monthly average price oscillated in a band from $2/MMBtu to $6/MMBtu for most of the indices.2 Since 2016, except for the seasonal winter peak, the range has narrowed to $2-$4/MMBtu. In 2017, AECO-C, the main western Canadian index for gas prices barely exceeded $2/MMBtu3 except for the months of March, April and May (Figure 1). Figure 1: Natural Gas Monthly Index Spot Prices

Source: CERI, Argus Media

Much of Canada’s natural gas supply is produced within the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB), with current production at more than 15 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d).4 The Liard basin, Horn River, Montney, Duvernay, Alberta Deep basin and Williston in the southern part of Saskatchewan are the leading Canadian producing plays. Alberta production (10.6 Bcf/d) grew by 1% in 2017 from 2016, driven by the Montney and Mannville formations.5 For the near-term, the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) forecasts that Montney, Upper Mannville, and Duvernay formations will grow and contribute up to 70% of total Alberta production in 2027.6 Although British Columbia’s gas production grew slightly (almost 1%) to 4.5 Bcf/d,7 mainly from the Montney, the province produced 40,000 bbl/d of condensate (plant and wellhead combined), an attractive byproduct with an average price of CAN$76/bbl,8 which will drive the drilling activity in the play. On the other hand, Saskatchewan’s marketable natural gas supply decreased by 1.7% with monthly average peak

March 2018

CERI Natural Gas Report

Canadian Natural Gas Industry - A Year in Review Alpha Sow In the past, the North American natural gas market had two advantages – a continental market that was running low on gas supply, and price peaks during abnormal temperatures. These two facts helped producers enjoy relatively high prices (up to US$10/MMBtu for AECO-C in December 2000)1 for years before the disruptive effect of the shale gas boom in the US. 2017 was a transition year – described as a year: Where a continental market set itself to go global

through higher LNG exports from the US Where Canadian producers were not increasing their

natural gas production with expectations of an even gloomier drilling outlook caused by existing oversupply and shrinking export markets for Canadian gas

Where high price volatility due to swinging temperatures.

The gas market is currently driven by four opposing forces: The increase in productivity and decrease of supply

costs The boom of LNG projects in the US and potential

prospect projects in Canada The extreme winter weather and temperature

swings An effective pipeline infrastructure plan in the US to

reduce regional supply/demand mismatch particularly in the US mid-continent.

CERI Natural Gas Report Editorial Committee: Ganesh Doluweera, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan Fogwill About CERI The Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, not-for-profit research establishment created through a partnership of industry, academia, and government in 1975. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, objective economic research in energy and related environmental issues. For more information about CERI, please visit our website at www.ceri.ca or contact us at [email protected].


production in December 2017 of 418 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) against 428 MMcf/d a year earlier in 2016.9 AECO-C spot price and its differential with other indexes are influenced by pipeline availability, eastern Canada and US northeast demand, and active gas storage levels. Overall, the AECO-C 2017 price increased by 9.8% compared to 2016 levels with a record low of CAN$-0.55/GJ10 in September due to a disruption on the TransCanada Mainline that brings western gas supply to eastern markets. Figure 2: Canada Export Market

Source: CAPP

Canada natural gas net pipeline exports to the US amounted to 5.8 Bcf/d, down from 6 Bcf/d in 2016.11 The decrease in value has deepened from CAN$10.7 billion in 2014 to CAN$6.7 billion in 2017. Traditionally, exports flow to the west, mid-west and east as illustrated in Figure 2. The export points at Huntingdon and Kingsgate in the east are increasing and situated well above 1000 Bcf.12 The trend is downward for the two other export regions where the Midwest volumes decreased from 1,842 Bcf in 2011 to 1,640 Bcf in 2017.13 The eastern volumes represent half of the western supply and are steadily decreasing from 575 Bcf in 2010 to 259 Bcf in 2017.14 The shrinking export market has pushed Canadian suppliers and TransCanada to an agreement that led to a cut in pipeline tolls to increase Canadian competitiveness against US producers. The rate is set at CAN$0.77/GJ ($US 0.61 /MMBtu)15 from the Empress receipt point in Alberta to the Dawn Hub in Ontario. The rate is supposed to help western Canadian producers compete with the booming Utica and Marcellus plays. Also, the rate is set

lower than the following US competing pipelines ($US 0.70 - 1/MMBtu):16 The Nexus pipeline is 255 miles long with a capacity

of 1.5 Bcf/d17 and delivers Appalachian shale gas to the high demand markets of Ohio, Michigan, Chicago, and Ontario.

The Rover pipeline is 713 miles long and designed to transport 3.25 Bcf/d18 of Marcellus and Utica supply to the Dawn Hub in Ontario and then redistribute it to US markets.

The competition against western Canadian gas does not stop at Ontario and Quebec. Many other infrastructure projects are planned to refuel the US mid-continent (Figure 3). The 3.25 Bcf/d Rover pipeline will supply the mid-continent and the approved Atlantic Sunrise Pipeline (1.7Bcf/d)19 will move Pennsylvania gas to the mid-Atlantic and southeastern states. Figure 3: Natural Gas Pipeline Projects Certificated by the US-FERC in 2017

Source: EIA

All these planned infrastructure projects will support the ever-increasing shale gas production in the US. The associated gas from the Permian Basin is estimated to rise to an average of 8 Bcf/d from 2017 to 2020 and will be transported by the Northern Natural Gas Pipeline (NNG) and the Natural Gas Pipeline Company of America to the mid-continent. The Bakken’s gas production, which was at an all-time record in 2017, is also heading to Chicago through Northern Border Pipeline. The US supply is also powered by Haynesville, a gas-rich play in east Texas and northern Louisiana. It is the fastest growing field with production of 4.8 Bcf/d in 2017,20 surpassing the growth rate of the Marcellus basin. A high price of US$3/MMBtu supported increased production,


and active drilling activity doubled from 2016. The production is slated for markets in the southeast and along the Gulf Coast as well as upcoming LNG exports. The EIA estimated that 2017 US dry gas production averaged 73.6 Bcf/d, and forecast an additional increase of 8.1 Bcf/d in 2018, whereas US consumption is 74.2 Bcf/d, down from 75.1 Bcf/d in 2016 – a decrease caused by a higher rate of renewable generation in the electricity sector. This could be a long-term trend in jurisdictions such as California, which is cancelling planned gas power plants, closing natural gas storage facilities and is progressively shifting away from natural gas-fired generation. The state of California planned to introduce a new regulation that will impact how natural gas is moved, stored and consumed within its borders. The heating degree days in winter 2017 were on average 13% colder than 2016, increasing household natural gas consumption. The incremental future gas demand in the mid-continent will be driven by the electricity sector which is projected to increase by 5.7% in 2018;21 all other end-users demand is expected to be flat. While the internal demand is flattening, the possibility of gas exports to Asia is increasing through LNG. US LNG exports will increase significantly in coming years and is expected to offset part of the oversupply. Besides the current Louisiana Sabine Pass terminal that started in 2016 and operates at full capacity with fours trains (60 mm t/year), three other projects are scheduled to come online in 2018 – Dominion Cove Point LNG in Maryland, Elba Island LNG in Georgia and Freeport LNG in Texas – with a cumulative peak capacity of 4.2 Bcf/d.22 Many others are planned and forecasted to start up in the early 2020s. A positive Final Investment Decision (FID) is expected in 2018 in Texas for Corpus Christi train 3, Golden Pass LNG, Rio Grande LNG, Louisiana-Magnolia LNG, Driftwood LNG, Gulf of Mexico-Delfin LNG, and Jordan Cove LNG in Oregon.

The Canadian working gas storage level in 2017 was higher than 2016 for half of the year; the storage peaked in October at 970 Bcf,23 higher than the five-year average (see Data Appendix). On the contrary, the US working gas storage was lower than the previous year and close to the five-year average. For the first part of 2017, the monthly average was between the five-year range on the lower side and 2016 levels on the upper side (see Data Appendix). The industrial sector and power generation represent a significant part of Canadian natural gas demand, ranging from 5 Bcf/d to 7.5 Bcf/d24 in 2017, well above 2016 monthly averages of 4.6 and 6.3 Bcf/d.25 The prospect of electricity grid transition from coal to natural gas as well as increase of renewable variable sources will increase the demand for natural gas in the upcoming years. Residential demand in 2017 varied between a five-year low of 0.4 Bcf/d to 3.3 Bcf/d26 but slightly higher than 2016, whereas commercial demand is sited in the five-year average range of 0.5 Bcf/d to 2.6 Bcf/d.27 The demand growth is expected to be marginal; methane derived petrochemicals seem to be another option to absorb the oversupply. Although the economic potential is significant, the volume of feedstock required is insignificant compared to current volumes. The feedstock volume ranges from 0.15 to 0.6 Bcf/d per plant for the most attractive derivatives. Despite a keen interest in LNG, only a few projects in Canada will likely move forward. Goldsboro and Bear Head in Nova Scotia and LNG Canada on the west coast are the furthest along. None of the projects have issued FID’s. The natural gas market is temporary oversupplied pushing prices downward, which could lead to a decrease in drilling activity in the short term until the new demand emerges such as LNG or petrochemicals activity. For now, Canadian producers are restrained by the size of the domestic market and fierce competition from US producers from both sides of the border.


Endnotes 1www.argusmedia.com 2ibid 3ibid 4www.neb-one.gc.ca 5www.aer.ca 6ibid 7www.neb-one.gc.ca 8www.petersco.com 9www.neb-one.gc.ca 10www.direct.argusmedia.com 11www.neb-one.gc.ca 12ibid 13ibid 14ibid 15www.direct.argusmedia.com 16ibid 17www.eia.gov 18ibid 19ibid 20www.direct.argusmedia.com 21www.direct.argusmedia.com 22www.eia.gov 23http://www5.statcan.gc.ca 24CERI calculation 25CERI calculation 26www.neb-one.gc.ca 27www.neb-one.gc.ca

References https://direct.argusmedia.com/ http://www.aer.ca/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/natural-gas-production https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=30232 https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_prod_sum_a_EPG0_VGM_mmcf_m.htm https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_nus_m.htm https://www.energy.gov/fe/listings/lng-reports https://www.ferc.gov/industries/gas/indus-act/lng/lng-approved.pdf https://apps.neb-one.gc.ca/CommodityStatistics/Statistics.aspx?language=english https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/ntgrtd/ftr/2017ntrlgs/index-eng.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/pastdata/degree_days/ http://www.cga.ca/gas-stats/


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/17

De

c/1

7

Ca

na

da

Me

xico

To

ta

l U

S P

ipe

lin

e G

as I

mp

orts (

Bc

fpd

)

01234

Jan

/17

Mar

/17

May

/17

Jul/

17

Sep

/17

No

v/1

7Ja

n/1

8

Co

urt

righ

tSa

rnia

St.

Cla

irO

the

r

Ca

na

dia

n G

as I

mp

orts

By I

mp

ort P

oin

t (

Bc

fpd

)


SOU

RC

E: U

S. D

OE.

SOU

RC

E: U

S D

OE.

SOU

RC

E: U

S D

OE.

No

te:

Ther

e w

ere

no

LN

G im

po

rts

for

the

mo

nth

of

No

vem

ber

20

14

.

SOU

RC

E: U

S D

OE.

02468

10

12

14

16

De

c/1

5M

ar/1

6Ju

n/1

6Se

p/1

6D

ec/

16

Mar

/17

Jun

/17

Sep

/17

De

c/1

7

Co

ve P

oin

tE

lba

Isl

an

dE

vere

ttN

E G

ate

wa

yN

ep

tun

e

Ea

ste

rn

US

LN

G I

mp

orts B

y F

ac

ilit

y (

Bc

f)

02468

De

c/1

5M

ar/

16

Jun

/16

Se

p/1

6D

ec/

16

Ma

r/1

7Ju

n/1

7S

ep

/17

De

c/1

7

Fre

ep

ort

La

ke

Ch

arl

es

Sa

bin

e P

ass

Ca

me

ron

Go

lde

n P

ass

Gu

lf L

NG

US

Go

M L

NG

Im

po

rts B

y F

ac

ilit

y (

Bc

f)

05

10

15

20

De

c/1

5M

ar/1

6Ju

n/1

6Se

p/1

6D

ec/

16

Mar

/17

Jun

/17

Sep

/17

De

c/1

7

Nig

eri

aT

rin

ida

dN

orw

ay

Ye

me

n

US

LN

G I

mp

orts B

y O

rig

in (

Bc

f)

02468

10

12

14

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

20

15

20

16

20

17

Volu

me-W

eig

hted A

verage L

NG

Pric

e (

US

$/M

MB

tu)


SOU

RC

E: U

S D

OE,

NEB

.

SOU

RC

E: E

IA, U

S D

OE.

SO

UR

CE:

US

DO

E.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

De

c/1

5M

ar/1

6Ju

n/1

6Se

p/1

6D

ec/

16

Mar

/17

Jun

/17

Sep

/17

De

c/1

7

Chart

Title

Lith

ua

nia

Un

ite

dK

ing

do

mP

ola

nd

Th

aila

nd

Ne

the

rla

nd

s

Pa

kis

tan

Ma

lta

Eg

yp

t

So

uth

Ko

rea

Ita

ly

Tu

rke

y

Me

xico

Do

min

ica

n R

ep

.

Ch

ina

Jord

an

Sp

ain

Ch

ile

Ku

wa

it

Arg

en

tin

a

Po

rtu

ga

l

US

LN

G E

xp

orts b

y D

estin

atio

n (

Bc

f)

01234567

De

c/1

5M

ar/

16

Jun

/16

Se

p/1

6D

ec/

16

Ma

r/1

7Ju

n/1

7S

ep

/17

De

c/1

7

Tu

rke

yB

razi

lE

gyp

tIn

dia

Arg

en

tin

a

US

LN

G R

e-E

xp

orts

By D

estin

atio

n (B

cf)


SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

CA

OD

C, B

aker

Hu

ghes

. SO

UR

CE:

CER

I, C

AO

DC

.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

CA

OD

C.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

CA

OD

C.

0

50

0

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00

3,0

00 Ja

n/0

6Ja

n/0

8Ja

n/1

0Ja

n/1

2Ja

n/1

4Ja

n/1

6Ja

n/1

8

US

WC

SB

No

rth

Am

eric

an

Ac

tiv

e R

igs

0

10

0

20

0

30

0

40

0

50

0

60

0

70

0

80

0

90

0

1,0

00

1,1

00 Ja

n/0

6Ja

n/0

8Ja

n/1

0Ja

n/1

2Ja

n/1

4Ja

n/1

6Ja

n/1

8

Act

ive

Rig

sT

ota

l Rig

Dri

llin

g F

lee

t

Ca

na

dia

n R

ig F

lee

t U

tiliz

atio

nW

ee

kly

Ave

ra

ge

Activ

e R

igs

0

10

0

20

0

30

0

40

0

50

0

60

0

70

0 Jan

/09

Jan

/10

Jan

/11

Jan

/12

Jan

/13

Jan

/14

Jan

/15

Jan

/16

Jan

/17

Jan

/18

SKA

BB

C

WC

SB

Ac

tiv

e R

igs b

y P

ro

vin

ce

We

ek

ly A

ve

ra

ge

-

10

0

20

0

30

0

40

0

50

0

60

0

70

0

80

0

15

91

31

72

12

52

93

33

74

14

54

9

5-Y

ea

r A

vg.

20

17

20

18

We

ste

rn

Ca

na

da

Ac

tiv

e R

igs

We

ek

ly A

ve

ra

ge

We

ek

Nu

mb

er


SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Bak

er H

ugh

es.

SO

UR

CE:

CER

I, B

aker

Hu

ghe

s.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Bak

er H

ugh

es.

0%

10

%

20

%

30

%

40

%

50

%

60

%

70

%

80

%

90

%

10

0%

0

20

0

40

0

60

0

80

0

1,0

00

1,2

00

1,4

00

1,6

00

1,8

00

2,0

00

2,2

00

2,4

00 Ja

n/0

6Ja

n/0

8Ja

n/1

0Ja

n/1

2Ja

n/1

4Ja

n/1

6

Oil-

dir

ect

ed

Ga

s-d

ire

cte

dG

as-

dir

ect

ed

%

US

To

ta

l O

il-

an

d G

as-d

ire

cte

d A

ctiv

e R

igs

0

50

0

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00 Ja

n/0

7Ja

n/0

9Ja

n/1

1Ja

n/1

3Ja

n/1

5Ja

n/1

7

To

tal O

il-d

ire

cte

dG

oM

Ga

s-d

ire

cte

dO

nsh

ore

Ga

s-d

ire

cte

d

US

To

ta

l A

ctiv

e R

igs

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10

0 Jan

/07

Jan

/09

Jan

/11

Jan

/13

Jan

/15

Jan

/17

Oil-

dir

ect

ed

Ga

s-d

ire

cte

d

US

Gu

lf o

f M

ex

ico

Ac

tiv

e R

igs


SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly, S

tati

stics

Can

ada

CA

NSI

M T

able

12

9-0

00

5

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Sta

tisti

cs C

anad

a C

AN

SIM

Tab

le 1

29

-00

05

.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

EIA

. SO

UR

CE:

CER

I, E

IA.

•Im

po

rtan

t N

ote

: So

urc

e o

f C

anad

ian

sto

rage

dat

a is

in

tra

nsi

tio

n,

fro

m P

latt

's G

as D

aily

to

Sta

tisti

cs

Can

ada

CA

NSI

M T

able

12

9-0

00

5 -

Can

adia

n m

on

thly

nat

ura

l gas

sto

rage

, C

anad

a an

d p

rovi

nce

s. 2

01

6

dat

a an

d o

nw

ard

s is

no

w c

olle

cted

fro

m t

he

latt

er w

hile

dat

a p

rio

r to

20

16

is f

rom

th

e fo

rmer

.

0

20

0

40

0

60

0

80

0

1,0

00

1,2

00

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

Ca

na

dia

n W

ork

ing

Ga

s S

tora

ge

(Bcf

, M

on

th-e

nd

)

20

16

20

17

5-Y

ea

r A

ve

rage

Ca

na

dia

n W

ork

ing

Ga

s S

to

ra

ge

(B

cf, M

on

th

-en

d)

0

10

0

20

0

30

0

40

0

50

0

60

0

70

0

80

0

90

0

No

v-1

6Ja

n-1

7M

ar-

17

Ma

y-1

7Ju

l-1

7S

ep

-17

No

v-1

7

We

stE

ast

Ca

na

dia

n S

to

ra

ge

by R

eg

ion

(B

cf,

Mo

nth

-en

d)

0

50

0

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00

3,0

00

3,5

00

4,0

00

4,5

00

5,0

00

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

20

18

20

17

5-Y

ea

r A

vera

ge

US

Lo

we

r-4

8 W

ork

ing

Ga

s S

to

ra

ge

(B

cf,

Mo

nth

-en

d)

0

50

0

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00

3,0

00

3,5

00

4,0

00

4,5

00

Fe

b-1

7A

pr-

17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7O

ct-1

7D

ec-

17

Fe

b-1

8

Ea

stM

idw

est

Mo

un

tain

Pa

cifi

cSo

uth

Ce

ntr

al

US

Sto

ra

ge

by R

eg

ion

(B

cf,

Mo

nth

-en

d)


SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly, S

tati

stics

Can

ada

CA

NSI

M T

able

12

9-0

00

5.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tt’s

Gas

Dai

ly, S

tati

stics

Can

ada

CA

NSI

M T

able

12

9-0

00

5.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tt’s

Gas

Dai

ly, S

tati

stics

Can

ada

CA

NSI

M T

able

12

9-0

00

5.

-80

-60

-40

-200

20

40

60

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

ve

rage

20

16

20

17

We

ste

rn

Ca

na

dia

n S

tro

ag

e I

nje

ctio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls

(B

cf,M

on

th-e

nd)

-10

0

-80

-60

-40

-200

20

40

60

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

ve

rage

20

16

20

17

Ea

ste

rn

Ca

na

dia

n S

to

ra

ge

In

jec

tio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls

(B

cf,

Mo

nth

-en

d)

-15

0

-10

0

-500

50

10

0

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

ve

rage

20

16

20

17

Ca

na

dia

n S

to

ra

ge

In

jec

tio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls

(B

cf,

Mo

th

-end)


SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

EIA

. SO

UR

CE:

CER

I, E

IA.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

EIA

. SO

UR

CE:

CER

I, E

IA.

-25

0

-20

0

-15

0

-10

0

-500

50

10

0

15

0

20

0

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

ve

rage

20

16

20

17

US

Ea

st R

eg

ion

Sto

ra

ge

In

jec

tio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls

(B

cf, M

on

th-e

nd

)

-30

0

-25

0

-20

0

-15

0

-10

0

-500

50

10

0

15

0

20

0

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

ve

rage

20

16

20

17

US

Mid

we

st R

eg

ion S

to

ra

ge

In

jec

tio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls

(B

cf, M

onth

-en

d)

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-100

10

20

30

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

ve

rage

20

16

20

17

US

Mo

un

ta

in R

eg

ion

Sto

ra

ge

In

jec

tio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls

(B

cf,

Mo

nth

-en

d)

-80

-60

-40

-200

20

40

60

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

ve

rage

20

16

20

17

US

Pa

cif

ic R

eg

ion

Sto

ra

ge

In

jec

tio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls

(B

cf, M

on

th-e

nd)


SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

EIA

. SO

UR

CE:

CER

I, E

IA.

-30

0

-20

0

-10

00

10

0

20

0

30

0

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

ve

rage

20

16

20

17

US

South C

entral R

egio

n S

torage

Inje

ctio

ns/W

ithdraw

als

(B

cf, M

on

th

-end)

-1,0

00

-80

0

-60

0

-40

0

-20

00

20

0

40

0

60

0

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

ve

rage

20

16

20

17

US

Sto

ra

ge

In

jec

tio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls

(B

cf, M

on

th-e

nd)

march 2018 ceri natural gas report · 2019-06-22 · ceri natural gas report page 2 production in...

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