march 3, 2018bayareamoneymakers.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/bamm-mar-20… · - 14 solid years...

Bay

Area

Money

Makers

March 3, 2018

• U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures

and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware

of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets.

Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to

Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to

achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this training. The past performance of any

trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

• CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN

LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT

REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE

RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN

MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN

GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY

TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

• All Materials presented are for training purposes only. Traders should paper trade any new method prior to risk

of personal capital.

Disclaimer

Copyright ATTS 2007-2018

Today’s Line Up

1. Welcome & Announcements

Presentation:

• Fix the Top 10 Fatal Errors of Trading: #9 - FEAR

• How to Trade It: What Candlesticks Really Mean

• IBD Composite Stocks on the Move!

• BONUS Trade – JNUG & JDST


Syllabus for 2018

• Jan 6: Stop Trying to Get Even; Seasonality and How to Trade It

• Feb 4: IBD 50 – It Did it Again! & Compounding, Compounding…

• Mar 3: At the Masonic – Trading Workshop—bring your

computers

• Apr : Income vs. Wealth Building

• May : What I Hate Being Patient!

• Jun 2: At the Masonic – Mid-Year Check up and What To Change

• Jul : Why Growth Stocks—Go with a Known Winner!

• Aug : Your on Worst Enemy – YOU!

• Sept 8: At the Masonic – Triggers & Tigers

• Oct : Options Strategies that Work and Option Basics

• Nov 3: At the Masonic – Lee Tanner or Another Quest Speaker

• Dec : Wrap up and Prepare for 2019 – Webinar Meetings



Quality of Belief Determines Quality of Action —

Faulty Beliefs Lead to Faulty Actions!

~ Active Trend Trading

Remember!


Index Performance 2018


Target = 60% W/L Ratio Yearly @ 65%Target Return for Year 40% Trading $116K Marginable Account

Strategy 1 (2017) = 47/65 = 72% W/LStrategy 2 (2017) = 47/60 = 78% W/L

Strategy Return YTD Closed & Open Trades

Strategy I = +1.11%Strategy II = +26.05%Strategy III = + 13.10%

Total Return = 7.83%

Early Warning Alert: 1st Set Up Triggered


5 Pillars of Active Trend Trading

1. What to Trade: Strong Growth Stocks or Premium ETFs

2. When to Enter: Based on Back Tested Proprietary Signals

3. When to Exit: Based on Classic Technical Analysis

4. What Strategy to Use: Buy Stock

5. What to Expect – Probability of Success – 65%


2. When to Enter: 1/23: Enter = 184.65

3. When to Exit:T1 = 190

1. What to Trade

3. When to Exit:T2 = 199

ATTS BONUS Trades 10-12 Per Year for Active

Trend Trading Members


Register Here: https://forms.aweber.com/form/33/1084761733.htm

https://forms.aweber.com/form/33/1084761733.htm

Running List Outs & InsRunning List 2018 – 94 Stocks

Running List will be provided via email to BAMM Members Monthly

And the Fundamental Winners are: WB, GRUB, ABMD,

NVDA & HTHT


Composite List for March 3rd

IBD Select Stocks Appearing on Multiple List

Register for the new Weekly Composite List! A weekly sort

of all stocks appearing on all IBD list.


Gold Seasonality


Bonus Trades for BAMM Members

JNUG

JDST


JNUG

JNUG 2017 Daily 3x Junior Gold Miners

57% - 9 days

56% - 13 days 62% - 30 days61% - 27 days

$1000 Trading Capital would have grown to $2811 by capturing ½ of these 4 moves281% Gain

JDST

JDST 2017 Daily 3x Inverse Junior Gold Miners

102% - 26 days

$1000 Trading Capital would have grown to $3225 by capturing ½ of these 4 moves322.5% Gain

107% - 22 days

42% - 25 days

30% - 9 days

Next BAMM Meeting Webinar

Saturday – April 7th Live Webinar 2018 - A Year of Breakthrough & Restoration

Topic: 1. Compound for Wealth Building

3. How to Trade It: Conditional Orders

4. Eliminate the 10 Fatal Flaws of Trading: Unrealistic Expectations

https://twitter.com/trend_Dww

https://www.facebook.com/ActiveTrendTrading/



Your job as a trader is to wait for the best

opportunities. Money is made stalking and sitting not

being active & forcing a new trade each day.~ Dan Zanger

NDX Seasonality


RUT Seasonality


l



How to Trade It — Wait For Bounce Zones



Bounce Zones are areas of a Price Chart where either buyers or sellers are in control. They represent either areas of Demand (Support) or Supply (Resistance)

1. Demand Bounce Zones are set by Institutions wanting to buy a large position

2. Supply Bounce Zones are set by where Institutions want to sell a large position

3. Institutions never buy or sell in one action



TSLATSLA from June 2015 – Nov 2017

- Breaks Through Overhead Supply

- On every trip back to this level. Buyers step in to Support

- Between 350 & 375 Sellers step in and form a Supply Bounce Zone

Supply/Demand Zone

Supply Zone



TSLA from Feb 2016 – Feb 2018

- Breaks Through Overhead Supply

- On every trip back to this level. Buyers step in to Support

- Between 350 & 375 Sellers step in and form a Supply Bounce Zone

- What can we plan based on the above? Go to the charts.

TSLA

Supply/Demand Zone

Supply Zone

• Long Time Successful IBD Trader

– Strategic

– Analytical

– Wise

Lee Tanner

Lee Tanner


Trade TSLA for a LexusA Lesson in Compounding

Lexus NX 300h

List: $38,335

$737.21 per week – Not that

much

Set Aside $5000 in Trade

Capital and Compounded it

with Strategy 2


Path of Least Resistance?


SPX Seasonality


SPX Seasonality-

Another View


Target = 60% W/L Ratio YearlyTarget Return for Year 40% Trading $100K Marginable Account

Strategy Return YTD Closed Trades

Strategy I = + 1.28%Strategy II = + 13.7%Strategy III = + 61.4%

Cumulative = + 31.18%


Expanded ATTS Features—Focused Strategies

Dennis,

Because of the education I got through your team I could stand outside this market turmoil and observe the tense moments.

Your input about today's market action will help people like me to trade better.

Thanks YouGAFeb 2016

Active Trend Trading System

BasicOptions

Strategy II Wealth Building & Income

Generation

Strategy III

Stocks & Index ETFs

Strategy I

- Three Focus Strategies based on ATTS


What Next? Broke the Dome! Or Expanding the Dome

SPX QRTRLY 9-30-16


Today’s Presenter

Ashish Dave: Long time IBD Trader

- Organizer for Sunnyvale Meetup

- Level II Training

- Chart School

- IBD Master’s Program

- 14 Solid Years of CANSLIM Trading

- Long Term Trader

- Multiple Trades that made over

100%

- Electrical Engineer when not

trading

-

“After so many years of trading I have realized that keeping everything simple is the key to Stock Trading!”


The Smartest Guy in the Room?

"Back in the spring of 1720, Sir Isaac Newton owned shares in the South Sea Company, the hottest stock in England. Sensing that the market was getting out of hand, the great physicist muttered that he 'could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people.' Newton dumped his South Sea shares, pocketing a 100% profit totaling £7,000. But just months later, swept up in the wild enthusiasm of the market, Newton jumped back in at a much higher price — and lost £20,000 (or more than $3 million in [2002-2003's] money. For the rest of his life, he forbade anyone to speak the words 'South Sea' in his presence.“

Newton obviously wasn't a dumb person. He invented calculus and conceptualized his three laws of motion.

But this little episode shows that he wasn't a smart investor because he let his emotions get the best of him, and got swayed by the irrationality of the crowd.

Or as Graham described it: "For indeed, the investor's chief problem — and even his worst enemy — is likely to be himself."


Food For Thought -- Update

Jordon Spieth: 22 years old

- Won 2 Major Championships

- Player of the Year 2015

- Won 7 Times in 2015

When ask about why and how he was

Playing so well responded,

“I’m just playing the way I should be!”

“You have to win the Mental Battle with yourself!”

“Observe things how they are;

See things how they can be!”

~~ DWW


• The Global Growth Concerns

• Fed Interest Rates Increase Schedule (Pipe Dream)

• Other Macro Issues

– US Election

– Decoupling from China?

Macro View with Pete

Pete Chrzaszcz


What Next?


Current Win/Loss = 63%; Target = 60% Yearly

Target Return for Year 40%

What Happened?

Got back to the 8


Returns 2012 - 2015

➢ATTS Stock Portfolio Net Returns over 4 years.

➢ 2012 = 28.2%

➢2013 = 44.5%

➢2014 = 28.1%

➢2015 = 15.596%

➢Average Per Year = 29.09%

Compounded: 174.31% over four yearsCopyright ATTS 2007-2018

Future Presentations:

Oct 10th: TOPS San Jose—Weekly Options

Oct 24th: TAFF Golden Gate University—Patterns for Profits


Where to From Here?


Today’s Presenter

Mike Trager:

- Retired Endodontist with a private practice

of over 30 years

- Trades for a living and researches trading

systems

- Traded Futures, stocks and options for

many years

- Expert on trading Leveraged Index ETF’s

- Major Contributor to the Art & Science of

Active Trend Trading Traders Report

- Developed a proprietary mix of indicators &

price signals to develop Trager’s Triggers

- Now only places 3-6 trades per year!

- Avid Tennis Player


Special Moments—How Much More?

A rare indication of a last hurrah

The 1972 warning occurred on November 17, 1972, only 7 weeks and less than 4% from the final high before the market lost half its value. The 2000 warning occurred the week of March 24, 2000, marking the exact weekly high of that bull run. The 2007 instance spanned two consecutive weekly closing highs: October 5 and October 12. The final daily high of the S&P 500 was October 9 - right in between. The most recent warning was the week ended July 17, 2015.


Special Moments—Has it started?


What’s Up with the Market—Are we there yet?

2015

2000


• The Global Growth Concerns

• Labor Market and the Real Unemployment

• Interest Rates Jitters until Sept 17 Oct 28 –

Maybe

Macro View--Pete


The MoneyShow—July 16-18, 2015

780 Mission Street

San Francisco, CA 94103

Presentation: Wealth Building

and Income Generation


Food For Thought

“Vision is the art of Seeing Things Invisible!”

~~ Jonathan Swift

“People Only See What They are Prepared to See”

~~ Ralph Waldo Emerson

“Observe things how they are;

See things how they can be!”

~~ DWW


Food For Thought

I applauded you! For Investing Your Time!

There is a cumulative value to investing small

amounts of time in certain activities over a long period.

But– Neglect is cumulative as well!

There is no cumulative value to the random things

we opt for over the important things!


- Bridge the Gap between monthly meetings

- Q&A about Patterns, Trades, Stocks

- Identify Potential Winning Stocks and how to trade them

- FB Groups or some other means of developing community

Intent of the Mid-Month BAMM Updates


How to Make Money Trading Stocks-Market Stock Talk Show

How to Make Money Trading

Stocks Show in collaboration with

Weiss Group (in the works)

Forbes Contributor


march 3, 2018bayareamoneymakers.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/bamm-mar-20… · - 14 solid years...

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