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  • 8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211

    1/17

    February 04, 2011

    Indian market % change

    Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD

    Sensex 18,449 2.0 (9.9) (10.0)

    Nifty 5,527 1.7 (10.3) (9.9)

    BSE 100 2,275 1.7 (12.6) (10.2)

    BSE 200 7,142 1.6 (13.2) (10.3)

    CNX Midcap 7,847 1.2 (18.3) (11.4)BSE Smallcap 8,464 1.2 (21.7) (12.5)

    Developed market % change

    Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD

    Dow Jones 12,062 0.2 7.6 4.2

    Nasdaq 2,754 0.2 8.4 3.8

    S&P 500 1,307 0.2 9.1 3.9

    FTSE 5,983 (0.3) 4.1 1.4

    CAC 4,037 (0.7) 5.0 6.1

    DAX 7,194 0.1 8.7 4.0

    Hang Seng* 23,909 1.8 (1.0) 3.8

    Nikkei* 10,550 1.1 12.7 3.1

    S&P/ASX200* 4,864 0.9 2.5 2.5* Markets are open

    Emerging market % changeLast close 1 day 3 mth YTD

    Shanghai Comp 2,799 0.3 (8.1) (0.3)

    Brazil Bovespa 66,765 0.1 (7.1) (3.7)

    Mexico Bolsa 37,739 (0.6) 5.3 (2.1)

    Kospi* 2,072 0.1 8.0 1.0

    Micex 1,750 (0.9) 13.6 3.7

    Taiwan* 9,145 0.5 10.4 1.9

    Straits* 3,211 0.8 (0.9) 0.7* Markets are open

    Institutional activity

    (Rs cr) Cash F&O MTD YTD

    FIIs (46) (356) (8,009) (6,802)

    MFs (223) - 1,223 840

    FIIs Prov. 539

    MFs Prov. (45)

    Commodities % change

    Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD

    Crude (US$/bbl) 90.8 0.3 5.0 (0.6)

    Gold (US$/oz) 1,352 (0.2) (2.9) (4.8)

    Copper (US$/mt) 9,944 (0.2) 19.7 3.0

    Aluminium (US$/mt) 2,514 0.1 5.2 2.2

    Zinc (US$/mt) 2,452 (0.1) 3.0 0.3

    Advance/Decline stocks

    (Nos) A B S Total

    Adv 159 1,130 243 1,763

    Dec 44 609 152 1,037

    Unch 0 115 36 184

    A/D ratio (x)* 3.6 1.9 1.6 1.7*A/D excluding Unch

    Trade value

    (Rs cr) % chg

    Cash NSE 11,696 (13.4)

    Cash BSE 3,253 (0.7)

    Total Cash 14,949 (10.9)

    Delivery (%) 41.0 -

    Derivatives 105,531 (0.7)

    Currency % change

    Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD

    Rs/US$ 45.62 (0.0) (2.8) (2.0)

    Rs/EUR 62.78 (0.5) (0.7) (4.7)

    US$/GBP 1.61 0.0 (0.8) 3.4

    US$/EUR 1.36 0.0 (4.0) 1.9

    Yen/US$ 81.56 (0.1) (1.0) (0.5)

    Bond market

    Last Close (%) Bps chg

    10yr Gsec 8.16 0.00

    Call rate 6.60 0.00

    Sensex intra-day

    17,850

    18,000

    18,150

    18,300

    18,450

    18,600

    9:00 10:05 11:10 12:15 13:20 14:25 15:30

    ADR/GDR

    Latest (US$) Price % chg % Prem/Disc

    Dr. Reddys 35.4 (0.3) 0.8

    HDFC Bk 143.9 0.9 6.2

    ICICI Bk 44.6 1.9 (0.9)

    ITC 3.4 (3.6) (3.9)

    Infosys 68.4 0.5 0.0

    Ranbaxy 11.9 0.3 1.3

    Reliance 41.1 2.3 (0.8)

    Wipro 13.4 0.7 38.2

    SBI 118.9 2.6 2.3

    Tata Motors 25.7 6.4 1.3Sterlite 14.9 1.0 296.1

    L&T 35.3 3.7 (1.1)

    Finally, some relief!

    Tru th m akes many appea ls , no t t he l east o f

    w h i ch i s i t s pow er to shock . - Ju les Renard .

    Thank god there was no afternoon shocker onThursday as was the case on Wednesday. After afive-day rout we had a solid advance. This couldsustain as FIIs were net buyers after a long hiatus.Also, the Nifty breached short term resistance of5470 and closed above 5500. Some short coveringis expected around 5550, which may take the Nifty

    to 5570. A close above 5650 might just shore upinvestor confidence.

    However, any major up-trend will take a while todevelop and wont be without hiccups. Resistanceis likely at 5600 and later around 5700-5750.

    We expect a flat to steady start after which theindices could gain traction. But be careful as theundertone remains jittery and avoid getting hit byintraday volatility. FII flows will continue to have abearing on overall sentiment and so will theupcoming Budget.

    US economic data has improved steadily,propelling the Dow above 12,000. All eyes are onFridays monthly jobs report.

    Balrampur Chini, Cipla, Hindustan Copper, NCC and

    Suzlon will declare their results today.

  • 8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211

    2/17

    News

    Ma r ke t Ma n t r a

    Corporate snippets

    Wipro CFO sells more than half of his companyshares. (BS)

    Infosys is rehauling its hierarchical systemand making internal process more flexible for

    young employees to stem attrition and attracttalent. (ET)

    NTPC will not open price bids for the Rs110bnbulk equipment supply tender on Friday. (ET)

    NTPC has floated bids for 800MW bulk super-critical units for Rs190bn. (BS)

    Vedanta may terminate US$9.6bn deal ifCairn I ndia tweaks royalty clause. (ET)

    M&M has rolled out a mobile seva initiative toprovide services for its three wheelers andother commercial vehicles in AP, Tamil Nadu,Kerala and Karnataka. (BL)

    ITC may soon hike prices of its packaged foodsproduct by 7-8%. (BL)

    Bank of India to raise Tier-I capital throughthe issue of 30mn fresh equity share. (BL)

    Mahindra Satyam is wooing back selectformer employees. (BL)

    Wipro to set up an exclusive delivery centre in

    Toronto to develop software solutions and cutdown Canadian companies energyconsumption bill. (BL)

    SAIL FPO is likely to hit the market only byend-March. (BL)

    IIFCL to lend up to Rs40bn in the currentquarter to REC and PFC. (ET)

    Bank of Baroda, Andhra Bank and UnionBank of India have raised their base rates by50bps. (BS)

    Power Ministry to seek cabinet nod for PFCFPO. (ET)

    L&T Infra Finance Company has hit the marketwith its second issue of tax saving long-terminfrastructure bonds. (ET)

    Religare Wellness plans to buy equity stakesin companies across several African and SouthAsian countries. (ET)

    Whirlpool to invest Rs1.25bn on new productdevelopment, marketing and enhancinginfrastructure. (ET)

    Arvind life style brand is close to sealing alicensing deal with French womens brand, Elle.(ET)

    Camlin has signed a MoU with Japan leadingbrand Zebra. (BS)

    Karuturi Global has acquired 58% stake inFlorista India through a share swap deal. (BS)

    Economy snippets

    Food inflation rose to 17% for the week endedJanuary 22. (BL)

    Over 1.1mn mobile users have opted for MNPwithin a fortnight of the facility becomingavailable. (ET)

    RBI to tighten oversight norms for portfoliomanagement. (BS)

    India may need to import 142mn tons of coalnext year to bridge the estimated shortfall indomestic production. (BL)

    Results tableRs mn Revenue % yoy PAT % yoy

    NMDC 26,212 65.1 15,180 81.4

    MothersonSumi

    21,525 18.6 1,063 42.1

    ACC 20,889 5.3 2,559 (8.6)

    AmbujaCements

    18,274 2.2 2,575 6.8

    ICSA 3,652 16.6 315 4.7

    ADSL 1,737 (2.9) 197 (27.3)

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    Technicals

    Ma r ke t Ma n t r a

    Nifty price/ volume

    10:A S O N D 11:J F

    Log IRIS

    Source : www.SpiderSoftwareIndia.Com 5200

    5400

    5600

    5800

    6000

    6200

    6400

    Cr

    50.00

    100

    Price Avg3(S,200,S,100,S,50)

    Vol

    NSE Nifty [N59901] 5430.45, 5532.65, 5418.00, 5526.75, 651750400 1.74%

    Dly

    20

    26

    Nifty posted smart gains to cross short termresistance of 5,470 and closing well above 5,500levels. Hourly chart in Nifty suggest formation of

    classic inverted head and shoulder, which isgenerally considered as a signs of a bottoming outand it could provide relief to the Nifty atleasttowards 5,570(based on amplitude). For theweekly confirmation Nifty needs to close above5,650 levels in order to void the medium termdowntrend.

    Support/ Resistance levelsClose Support Resistance

    Nifty 5,527 5,490 5,575

    Sensex 18,445 18,310 18,670

    Abnormal change in delivery Stock NSEDely (%) Prev NSEDely (%) Price % chg

    Heg 86.2 22.2 (0.2)

    Essaroil 37.0 59.6 1.1

    Bhusanstl 17.4 7.1 1.2

    Amtekauto 54.8 23.1 (0.8)

    Orchidchem 16.6 7.0 3.5

    Positive breakoutCompany name CMP

    10 DaysMVG avg

    Price %chg

    20 DaysMVG avg

    Tata Inv Corp 547.2 535.1 2.3 537.0

    Religare Enterpr 485.0 476.3 1.8 470.3

    Dlf Ltd 244.0 239.7 1.8 250.2

    Network 18 Med 147.6 145.1 1.7 139.1

    Torrent Pharma 596.9 587.0 1.7 588.5

    India Infoline 78.6 77.4 1.5 77.5

    Jindal Saw Ltd 217.5 214.5 1.4 214.4

    Titan Inds Ltd 3,595.1 3,551.0 1.2 3,493.0

    Steel Authority 164.4 162.5 1.2 167.0

    Divi Labs Ltd 633.1 626.1 1.1 627.3

    Chambal Fertilizers (BUY, above Rs74, Target

    Rs78): In yesterdays session, the stock recoveredsome of its lost ground following recent decline and

    closed above its 100-DMA. It now faces aresistance at Rs78-79 levels and should have a

    minimum upside till that level. Our argument isfurther validated after the stock gave an upsidebreakout on Thursdays session as the price brokethrough the top of a trading range. Moreover, onthe weekly chart, the stock has taken strongsupport at Rs72, which acted as a breakout pointin September 2010. Based on above mentioned

    technical evidences, we recommend tradersw ith high risk appetite to buy the stock above

    Rs72 w ith SL of Rs72 for target of Rs78.

    L&T (BUY, between Rs1,610-1,615 Target

    Rs1,665): L&T has signaled reversal from themedium term down trend after formation of bullishengulfing pattern on the daily chart with spurt involumes. The reversal pattern has come close toimportant Fibonacci support of Rs1550 andrecovery could all the way extend towards

    Rs1720.The RSI is also trading with positivedivergence accompanied with positive crossover

    which supports buying argument in the counter.We advise buying stock in the range ofRs1,610-1,615 with stop loss of Rs1,590 forTarget of Rs1,665. (Duration 5 Days).

    Negative breakoutCompany name CMP

    10 DaysMVG avg

    Price %chg

    20 DaysMVG avg

    Nocil Ltd 17.2 17.4 (1.4) 17.9

    Sanghvi Movers 146.0 147.8 (1.3) 153.9

    Sintex Indus Ltd 148.8 150.6 (1.2) 158.5

    Reliance Infrast 704.5 712.5 (1.1) 750.4

    Essar Shipping 99.0 100.1 (1.1) 100.7

    Tata Elxsi Ltd 258.5 261.1 (1.0) 272.8

    Oberoi Realty 242.9 245.2 (1.0) 245.9

    Bank Of Maharash 59.6 60.1 (0.9) 61.1

    Bajaj Finance Lt 597.0 601.9 (0.8) 624.0

    Usha Martin Ltd 59.0 59.4 (0.7) 63.7

  • 8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211

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    Technicals

    Ma r ke t Ma n t r a

    Pivot tableCompany

    CMP(Rs)

    Supp1

    Supp2 Pivot Res 1 Res 2

    ABB 707 697 688 705 715 725

    ACC 984 974 966 982 992 1,002

    Ambuja Cem 125 121 118 124 128 132

    BHEL 2,191 2,150 2,126 2,173 2,215 2,256BPCL 596 570 533 607 633 658

    Bharti 340 326 318 334 348 362

    Cairn 332 328 325 331 335 339

    Cipla 329 325 321 329 334 338

    DLF 244 231 223 239 252 265

    Gail 464 458 452 464 470 476

    Grasim 2,294 2,257 2,236 2,278 2,315 2,352

    HCL Tech 491 484 475 493 501 508

    HDFC Bank 2,061 2,023 1,999 2,048 2,085 2,123

    Hero Honda 1,564 1,521 1,495 1,548 1,590 1,632

    Hindalco 246 238 234 243 250 258

    HUL 279 274 269 278 283 289

    HDFC 624 616 610 623 631 639

    ICICI Bank 1,027 1,008 993 1,023 1,042 1,061

    Idea 72 69 67 70 73 76

    Infosys 3,118 3,085 3,051 3,119 3,152 3,184

    ITC 159 158 156 159 161 163

    L&T 1,631 1,580 1,551 1,610 1,660 1,711

    M&M 706 696 688 704 714 723

    Maruti 1,218 1,206 1,194 1,218 1,230 1,243

    Nalco 422 411 405 418 428 438

    NTPC 182 180 178 181 184 186

    ONGC 1,195 1,179 1,169 1,189 1,205 1,222

    Powergrid 99 96 95 98 100 103

    PNB 1,085 1,073 1,062 1,084 1,096 1,108

    Ranbaxy 537 533 529 538 542 546

    Rcom 118 115 113 117 120 123

    Reliance 944 923 911 935 956 976

    Reliance Infra 704 684 672 697 717 737

    ReiancePower 131 127 125 129 133 136

    Satyam 61 60 60 61 62 63

    Siemens 850 844 838 851 856 862

    SBI 2,652 2,589 2,554 2,624 2,687 2,750

    SAIL 164 160 158 163 167 171

    Sterlite 172 169 167 171 173 176

    Sunpharma 437 430 425 435 442 450

    Suzlon 49 48 48 49 49 50

    Tata Com. 237 233 230 236 240 245

    TCS 1,184 1,171 1,159 1,183 1,196 1,209

    Tata Motors 1,157 1,112 1,086 1,138 1,183 1,227

    Tata Power 1,227 1,212 1,200 1,223 1,238 1,253

    Tata Steel 638 629 623 635 644 653Unitech 46 45 44 46 47 49

    Wipro 442 434 429 439 447 455

    Zee 115 112 110 114 117 120

    A pivot is a level at which the market direction changes for the day.These points can be critical support and resistance levels for that day.

    Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on thestock or index.

    Top gainersCompany Price (Rs) Price % chg % YTD chg

    Bf Utilities Ltd 844.9 20.0 (8.2)

    Teledata Inform 2.7 18.8 (6.2)

    Bajaj Finance Lt 599.6 10.1 (14.8)

    Polaris Software 186.0 10.0 6.6

    Mascon Global 1.7 9.0 (26.1)

    Top losersCompany Price (Rs) Price % chg % YTD chg

    Aztecsoft Ltd 451.6 (4.8) (19.4)

    Inox Leisure Ltd 50.2 (4.8) (20.3)

    Phoenix Mills 193.1 (4.6) (13.4)

    Sobha Developers 232.6 (4.6) (28.5)

    Pidilite Inds 129.8 (4.1) (14.7)

    Volume ToppersCompany Price (Rs) Price % chg Vol % chg

    Simplex Infrastr 355.4 3.9 46,086.7

    Entertainment Ne 219.5 2.0 2,587.4

    Aztecsoft Ltd 451.6 (4.8) 1,384.7

    Akruti Nirman 216.7 2.0 1,285.9

    Usha Martin Ltd 58.8 5.1 1,119.8

    Sector watchPrice % chg

    BSE Indices Last close 1 day 1 week 1 mth 50 DMA

    BSE Bankex 12,112 2.0 (10.0) (17.3) 13,505

    BSE Realty 2,276 3.9 (20.7) (37.8) 3,210

    BSE HC 6,163 0.2 (8.9) (6.5) 6,433

    BSE Metals 16,477 2.2 (8.3) (3.5) 16,860

    BSE Oil & Gas 9,611 1.7 (9.3) (11.4) 10,505

    BSE Auto 8,755 1.4 (14.3) (13.1) 9,789

    BSE IT 6,403 0.7 (6.1) 5.1 6,258

    BSE Power 2,709 1.6 (9.8) (14.0) 3,038

    BSE FMCG 3,316 0.5 (10.2) (9.4) 3,609

    BSE PSU 8,767 1.7 (7.9) (15.1) 9,736

    BSE Cap Goods 13,390 2.5 (13.5) (18.8) 15,369

    BSE CD 5,976 0.9 (7.4) (14.1) 6,342

    BSE 200 2,275 1.7 (10.6) (12.6) 2,494

    BSE 500 7,142 1.6 (10.7) (13.2) 7,861

    BSE Mid Cap 6,828 1.1 (13.3) (20.0) 7,912

    BSE Small Cap 8,464 1.2 (14.0) (21.7) 9,943

    CNX 500 4,430 1.5 (10.8) (13.0) 4,867

    Note :

    Ideas given under the Technicals section are for intraday purpose or upto a period of three trading sessions. Stocks recommended under this

    heading are not necessarily part of our fundamental buy or sell list.

  • 8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211

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    Deals

    Ma r ke t Ma n t r a

    Bulk dealsDate Scrip name Client name B/S Qty ('000) Avg price (Rs) Deal size (Rs m)

    3/2/2011 Simplex Infrastructures Citigroup Global Markets Mauritius B 1,967 350 688.5

    3/2/2011 Kalindee Rail Nirman (Eng Hdfc Mututal Fund S 247 151 37.3

    3/2/2011 Simplex Infrastructures Hsbc Global Investment Fund A/C S 1,966 350 688.2

    3/2/2011 BGIL Films Enaam Securities S 65 5 0.3

    3/2/2011 Kalindi Rail Hdfc Mututal Fund S 115 153 17.5

    Insider trades

    Company name Acquirer Transaction date B/SQty

    ('000)Shares

    transactions (%)Holding after

    transaction (%)Andhra Cements Ltd ISG Traders Ltd 18/01/2011 S 1941.5 1.3 35.8

    Arshiya International Ltd Ajay Sapra 1/0/1900 - 0.0 - -

    Bajaj Hindusthan Ltd Jayakumar Narayanswami 27/01/2011 B 420.3 13.6 13.6

    Banswara Syntex Ltd Shaleen Toshniwal 27/01/2011 B 20.0 - 8.6

    Banswara Syntex Ltd Shaleen Toshniwal 28/01/2011 B 10.0 - 8.7

    Bartronics India Ltd R Shobha Rani Reddy 28/01/2011 S 100.0 0.3 -

    Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Mrs. Mandakin P Bhagwati 17/01/2011 B 0.2 - 8.6

    Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Mrs. Mandakin P Bhagwati 18/01/2011 B 0.1 - 8.6

    Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Mrs. Mandakin P Bhagwati 19/01/2011 B 0.1 - 8.6

    Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Mrs. Mandakin P Bhagwati 20/01/2011 B 0.1 - 8.6

    Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Mrs. Mandakin P Bhagwati 21/01/2011 B 0.1 - 8.6

    Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Reena P Bhagwati 17/01/2011 B 0.2 - 11.2

    Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Reena P Bhagwati 18/01/2011 B 0.2 - 11.2

    Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Reena P Bhagwati - B 0.1 - 11.2

    Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Reena P Bhagwati 20/01/2011 B 0.1 - 11.2

    Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Reena P Bhagwati 21/01/2011 B 0.1 - 11.2

    Dhampur Sugar Mills Ltd Gaurav Goel 27/01/2011 B 25.0 - 2.0

    Dhampur Sugar Mills Ltd Gaurav Goel 28/01/2011 B 25.0 - 2.1

    Dhampur Sugar Mills Ltd Gaurav Goel 31/01/2011 B 25.0 - 2.1

    Dhampur Sugar Mills Ltd Gautam Goel 27/01/2011 B 25.0 - 2.1

    Dhampur Sugar Mills Ltd Gautam Goel 28/01/2011 B 25.0 - 2.1

    Dhampur Sugar Mills Ltd Gautam Goel 31/01/2011 B 25.0 - 2.1

    Eid Parry India Ltd Ravindra S Singhvi 1/0/1900 - 0.0 - -

    Elpro International Ltd R C A Ltd -- B 1.0 0.0 2.8

    Elpro International Ltd R C A Ltd -- B 3.5 0.1 2.7

    Elpro International Ltd R C A Ltd -- B 3.6 0.1 2.8

    Elpro International Ltd R C A Ltd -- B 4.5 0.1 2.9

    Envair Electrodyne Ltd Shripad Mirashi 18/01/2011 - 19/01/2011 B 1.1 0.0 53.4

    Envair Electrodyne Ltd Shripad Mirashi 21/01/2011 B 0.2 - 53.4

    Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 18/01/2011 S 28.8 - 2.9

    Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 18/01/2011 S 30.0 - 2.9

    Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 19/01/2011 S 44.1 - 2.9

    Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 19/01/2011 S 65.0 - 2.8

    Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 20/01/2011 S 56.4 - 2.7

    Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 20/01/2011 S 57.3 - 2.6

    Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 25/01/2011 S 40.0 - 2.5

    Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 25/01/2011 S 40.0 - 2.6

    Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 27/01/2011 S 19.9 - 2.5

    Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 27/01/2011 S 19.9 - 2.5

    Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 28/01/2011 S 20.0 - 2.4

    Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 28/01/2011 S 20.0 - 2.5

    Gemstone Investments Ltd Sanjay Parekh 27/01/2011 S 250.0 0.3 -

    Gemstone Investments Ltd Vinesh Kothari 27/01/2011 S 100.0 0.1 -

    Geometric Ltd Manu Parpia 27/01/2011 - 28/01/2011 S 47.5 0.1 6.8

    Hi-Tech Gears Ltd Pranav Kapuria 19/01/2011 - 20/01/2011 B 1.8 - 4.3

    FII s tradesScrip name Volume ('000) Price (Rs) Prem/Disc (%)

    Bank of Baroda 40.1 890.0 3.9

    PNB 218.2 1150.2 6.0

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    Derivatives

    Ma r ke t Ma n t r a

    Nifty volatility Index declined to 22.69 from

    23.52, decreased by 3.53% . Total Nifty futures added 0.08mn shares in

    open interest. Call open interest for Feb series shed 2.02mn

    shares in Open Interest. Put open interest for Feb series added 3.14mn

    shares in Open Interest.

    Nifty put call ratio of open interest now standsat 1.24 vs 1.16.

    Nifty put call ratio of volume now stands at0.95 vs 0.86.

    Maximum open interest in calls for Feb series isat 5,700 strike prices.

    Maximum open interest in Puts for Feb series isat 5,400 strike prices.

    Nifty Feb 5,500 Call sheds 1.43mn shares in

    open interest. Nifty Feb 5,500 Put added 1.26mn shares in

    open interest.

    Strategies

    Long Sintex Feb Future in range of Rs150 151 for the target price of Rs158 with a stoploss placed at Rs147.

    Lot size: 2000Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs16,000 andnet maximum loss of Rs8,000.

    Long Canara Bank Feb Future in range ofRs575 - 576 for the target price of Rs595 witha stop loss placed at Rs566.Lot size: 500Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs10,000 andnet maximum loss of Rs5,000.

    Nifty open interest chart

    0

    150

    300

    450

    600

    750

    900

    5-Nov-10 3-Dec-10 31-Dec-10 28-Jan-11

    OI & Vol

    (lacs)

    4,000

    4,500

    5,000

    5,500

    6,000

    6,500Nifty

    Nifty snapshotCurrent Previous % Chg

    Near month price 5,539 5,443 1.8

    Near month Pre/Disc 12.2 10.5 16.2

    Mid month price 5,555 5,458 1.8

    Mid month Pre/Disc 28.7 26.1 10.0

    OI* (000) 23,717 23,631 0.4Volume (000) 23,845 26,334 (9.5)

    PCR (OI) 1.2 1.2 7.7

    PCR (Vol) 0.9 0.9 9.6

    Roll-over (%) 7.7 6.7 16.0

    FII derivative data(Rs cr) Buy Sell Net Contracts OI % chg

    Index Futures 1,607 2,028 (421) 42,283 11

    Index Option 5,668 5,664 4 6,050 0

    Stock Futures 1,433 1,318 115 11,122 1

    Stock Options 468 521 (53) 2,013 11

    Institutional activity(Rs cr) Cash F&O MTD YTD

    FII's (46.1) (356.0) (8,009.0) (6,802.2)

    MF's (222.7) - 1,222.6 839.8

    FIIs Prov. 538.7

    MFs Prov. (45.5)

    Overall market3-Feb-11 2-Feb-11 1-Feb-11

    Value %chg

    Index Future (Rs cr) 15,626 16,964 19,254 (7.9)

    Stock Future (Rs cr) 14,282 15,710 15,307 (9.1)

    Index Options (Rs cr) 71,904 70,162 86,098 2.5

    Stock Options (Rs cr) 3,720 3,406 3,481 9.2

    Index Future (Cont '000) 606 658 746 (7.9)

    Stock Future (Cont '000) 543 603 589 (9.9)

    Index Options (Cont '000) 2,585 2,515 3,080 2.8Stock Options (Cont '000) 133 124 127 7.3

    PCR (OI) 0.9 0.9 0.9 9.7

    PCR (VOI) 0.4 0.4 0.3 (8.9)

    Nifty strikes open interest

    0

    2,000

    4,000

    6,000

    8,000

    10,000

    12,000

    14,000

    5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900

    OI in ('000) Call Put

    Sector-w ise OI

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    Automobiles

    Banking

    Capital

    goods&

    Infra

    Cemen

    t

    Fertilizers

    FMCG IT

    RealEstate

    Media

    Metals

    Oil&

    Gas

    Pharma

    Power

    Logistics

    Sugar

    Textile

    Telecom

    Others

    TotalFuture

    % Chg

  • 8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211

    7/17

    Ma r ke t Ma n t r a

    Derivatives

    Futures open interest gainersScrip OI ('000) % change CMP (Rs) % change Volume ('000) % change Prem/Disc (Rs)

    Idfc 23,046.0 22.5 141.6 (0.4) 14,850.0 77.8 (1.1)

    Cumminsind 387.0 22.1 683.4 (4.2) 282.5 34.8 (0.4)

    Hindalco 17,066.0 21.6 245.9 4.8 24,598.0 22.0 0.2

    Canbk 1,323.0 20.3 578.0 0.9 1,725.5 (3.8) (4.1)

    Nationalum 1,019.5 13.7 395.4 1.8 322.0 88.9 26.4

    Ambujacem 10,790.0 13.5 124.3 2.9 8,586.0 286.1 0.9

    Jswsteel 3,173.8 11.7 933.2 0.0 2,841.8 0.7 (6.9)

    Syndibank 3,810.0 10.1 113.9 6.3 4,544.0 150.8 (0.8)

    Denabank 6,612.0 9.6 106.1 4.1 4,924.0 48.2 (0.8)

    Sintex 3,826.0 9.4 150.2 5.1 1,880.0 164.8 (1.0)

    Lichsgfin 16,891.3 9.2 179.7 3.8 9,205.0 3.9 (1.8)

    Futures open interest losersScrip OI ('000) % change CMP (Rs) % change Volume ('000) % change Prem/Disc (Rs)

    Pfc 777.0 (14.3) 262.7 3.9 593.0 (49.7) (1.0)

    Reliance 15,764.8 (2.6) 946.5 2.5 5,446.5 (28.0) (2.6)

    Pfc 777.0 (14.3) 262.7 3.9 593.0 (49.7) (1.0)

    Indiacem 7,024.0 (8.8) 92.4 4.7 2,380.0 (82.7) (0.3)

    Albk 1,017.0 (7.2) 206.7 2.7 689.0 28.3 (1.0)Bharatforg 6,053.0 (7.0) 338.8 (0.3) 3,531.0 72.0 (2.4)

    Sbin 3,321.9 (5.0) 2,657.9 2.7 3,531.0 (6.9) (6.2)

    Cipla 3,567.0 (3.9) 330.3 1.1 1,444.0 46.9 (0.9)

    Hdil 18,219.0 (3.6) 140.2 6.4 10,546.0 (26.5) (0.4)

    Grasim 266.9 (3.6) 2,303.1 2.2 46.1 (66.4) (9.1)

    Indianb 1,437.0 (2.8) 217.4 2.4 269.0 29.3 (0.7)

    Most active stock calls Most active nifty calls

    Scrip Strike OI ('000)%

    change CMP(Rs)Volume

    ('000) Strike OI ('000) % change CMP(Rs) Volume('000)

    Tatamotors 1150 1,420.8 309.7 58.1 8,628.0 5500 4,773.6 (23.1) 121.1 19,420.5

    Tatamotors 1200 688.8 (9.1) 37.5 4,673.0 5600 4,673.0 (2.5) 71.0 16,364.4

    Unitech 50 5,820.0 19.6 1.6 5,529.0 5700 6,355.2 2.9 37.7 11,203.0

    Tatamotors 1300 1,602.8 2.0 13.8 3,318.0 5800 4,600.5 (4.4) 18.1 5,471.4

    Hindalco 250 1,024.0 21.0 7.4 1,607.0 5400 2,020.2 (13.1) 188.0 4,460.2

    Sbin 2700 160.5 (10.8) 54.1 2,181.0 5900 3,941.4 (1.3) 8.3 2,169.4

    Tatamotors 1250 614.8 14.3 22.5 2,113.0 6000 4,186.8 1.4 4.5 1,606.8

    Tatasteel 640 1,378.0 0.3 19.2 1,745.0 6100 1,683.5 1.8 3.0 719.5

    Reliance 940 301.0 (13.4) 30.0 2,105.0 5700 703.8 14.4 113.0 520.0

    Tatamotors 1100 342.5 1.3 84.2 1,613.0 5800 964.6 11.5 75.9 420.4

    Most active stock puts Most active nifty puts

    Scrip Strike OI ('000)%

    change CMP(Rs)Volume

    ('000) Strike OI ('000) % change CMP(Rs) Volume('000)

    Tatamotors 1100 288.3 70.1 34.5 2,260.0 5400 9338.8 13.6 54.6 17364.7

    Reliance 900 450.3 35.2 8.7 2,119.0 5500 6589.3 23.8 87.3 14148.0

    Reliance 920 272.0 44.1 14.2 1,652.0 5300 4929.8 16.5 33.6 9745.5Hindalco 230 1,058.0 54.2 3.5 639.0 5200 4835.3 8.0 20.5 7153.0

    Tatasteel 620 879.5 (2.8) 10.0 937.0 5100 2767.9 (11.3) 13.4 3674.0

    Hindalco 240 596.0 223.9 6.5 582.0 5600 3280.0 (2.0) 133.0 2306.5

    Sbin 2500 80.0 13.7 22.8 885.0 5000 2290.4 18.2 8.9 2208.6

    Tatamotors 1050 203.5 23.0 18.5 1,042.0 5700 1661.3 (12.1) 198.0 838.8

    Icicibank 1000 161.0 11.4 21.7 1,054.0 4900 630.6 (4.6) 5.9 624.1

    Sbin 2600 68.5 18.1 51.5 741.0 5400 2991.4 2.9 132.5 452.6

    *OI= Open Interest

  • 8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211

    8/17

    Mutual Funds

    Ma r ke t Ma n t r a

    Fund focus

    ICICI Prudential Dynamic Fund Invest

    Fund manager Sankaran Naren Min investment Rs5,000

    Latest NAV Rs103.8 Entry load Nil

    NAV 52 high/low Rs112/87 Exit load 1% before 1 year

    Latest AUM Rs2,785cr Benchmark S&P CNX Nifty

    Class Equity diversified Asset allocation Equity (81%), Cash (19%)

    Options Growth & dividend Expense ratio 1.85%

    Top Recommended Funds (Absolute returns (in %) are based on previous close)Equity Diversified

    Assets(Rs Cr)

    NAV(Rs) 1wk 1mth 3mth 6mth 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr

    ICICI Prudential Dynamic - (G) 2,785 103.8 (2.0) (7.2) (6.1) 1.7 15.6 116.8 23.8 133.1

    Reliance Equity Opportunities (G) 2,861 34.1 (3.0) (11.5) (12.6) (2.0) 18.9 169.5 25.6 122.5

    HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities (G) 1,221 14.5 (4.1) (11.6) (14.9) (2.1) 16.9 149.1 22.9 --

    Equity Thematic

    Reliance Pharma Fund (G) 544 53.7 (1.9) (8.0) (5.4) 2.3 23.7 206.5 127.8 185.0

    ICICI Pru Tech Fund (G) 228 18.8 (2.7) (7.8) 3.6 18.8 35.9 210.4 23.8 79.8

    Franklin FMCG Fund (G) 51 61.6 (4.5) (10.9) (11.5) (3.3) 22.3 99.9 54.3 95.5

    Equity Tax saving

    Fidelity Tax Advantage (G) 950 16.4 (3.6) (11.9) (14.8) (5.0) 11.4 116.2 3.4 --

    HDFC Tax Saver (G) 2,970 225.6 (2.4) (9.6) (12.4) (0.5) 15.6 145.5 25.9 96.5

    ICICI Prudential Tax Plan (G) 1,320 136.0 (2.3) (10.3) (10.9) (1.3) 13.4 155.3 22.2 79.5

    Hybrid

    HDFC Prudence Fund (G) 5,965 204.7 (2.0) (7.3) (9.4) (0.1) 17.5 135.5 38.7 132.7

    HDFC MIP LTP (G) 10,000 22.5 (0.6) (2.2) (2.3) 2.0 8.6 45.7 33.6 69.7

    Reliance RSF - Balanced (G) 806 21.6 (3.0) (9.0) (12.4) (2.7) 13.5 111.9 38.2 112.5

    Debt Money marketHDFC Cash Mgmt Fund SP (G) 2,108 20.2 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.3 5.8 11.2 21.2 40.2

    SBI Magnum Insta Cash (G) 3,468 21.5 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.4 5.8 10.6 20.2 38.1

    Reliance Money Manager (G) 10,000 1,306.4 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.2 5.6 11.3 21.4 --

    Debt Floating rate

    Reliance Floating Rate Fund (G) 2,739 15.2 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.6 11.3 21.6 41.0

    Kotak Floater LTP (G) 3,027 15.4 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.4 6.0 11.9 22.0 42.2

    Tata Floater Fund (G) 3,323 14.5 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.5 6.1 11.9 22.3 41.7

    NFO UpdateFund name Open date Close date Type

    #Class

    UTIFixedIncomeIntervalFund MonthlyIntervalPlanII 8Feb 8Feb CE Debt FMP

    Kotak

    FMP

    Series

    34

    3

    Feb 8

    Feb CE Debt FMPIDFCFMPYearlySeries37(1YearFMP) 4Feb 9Feb CE Debt FMP

    L&TFMPIII(January369DA). 31Jan 9Feb CE Debt FMP#OE: Open Ended, CE: Close Ended

    Recent Actions

    SBI Debt Fund Series- 180 Days-11 declares dividend. The record date is February 8, 2011.

    Birla Sun Life Short Term FMP- Series 2 declares dividend. The record date is February 7, 2011.

    ICICI Prudential Quarterly Interval- II- Plan B declares dividend. The record date is February 7, 2011.

    HDFC Quarterly Interval Fund- Plan C declares dividend. The record date is February 7, 2011.

    DSPBR Equity Fund declares 35% dividend. The record date is February 4, 2011.

    Birla SunLife Mutual Fund declares dividend under three equity schemes namely BSL Frontline Equity Fund (12.5%), BSL

    Advantage Fund (45%) and BSL Basic Industries Fund (11.5%). The record date is February 4, 2011.

    Disclaimer: Mutual Fund is subject to market risk, please read the offer document carefully before investing.

  • 8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211

    9/17

    House Recommendations

    Ma r ke t Ma n t r a

    House RecommendationsThe large cap Buys and Sells are relative outperformer and underperformer bets vis--vis the Niftyrespectively. Reduce portfolio weight in stocks with Sell rating. Midcap Buys are based on absolute returnexpectations.

    Top Large-cap BuysStock Sector Sector View CMP (Rs) M-Cap (Rs bn)

    L&T Infrastructure Positive 1,581 999.2

    M&M Auto Positive 705 437.2

    REC NBFC Positive 238 241.0

    SBI Banking Positive 2,596 1,677.0

    Sterlite Industries Metals Neutral 165 551.1

    Tata Steel Metals Neutral 631 575.4

    Source: India Infoline Research

    Best Mid-cap Buys

    Stock Sector CMP (Rs) M-Cap (Rs bn)

    OnMobile Telecom 235 14.3

    Petronet LNG Oil & Gas 126 96.5

    Radico Khaitan Breweries 136 17.8

    Unity Infra Infrastructure 80 6.1

    Yes Bank Banking 265 91.2

    Source: India Infoline Research

    Top Large-cap Sells

    Stock Sector Sector View CMP (Rs) M-Cap (Rs bn)

    ACC Cement Negative 974 185.5

    NALCO Metals Neutral 402 254.0

    Source: India Infoline Research

  • 8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211

    10/17

    ACC SELL

    (Q4 CY10)

    February 04, 2011

    Sector: Cement

    Sensex: 18,449

    CMP (Rs): 986

    Target price (Rs): 818

    Downside (%): 17.0

    52 Week h/l (Rs): 1133 / 700

    Market cap (Rscr) : 18,509

    6m Avg vol (000Nos): 485

    No of o/s shares (mn): 188

    FV (Rs): 10

    Bloomberg code: ACC IB

    Reuters code: ACC.BO

    BSE code: 500410

    NSE code: ACC

    Closing price as on 03 Feb, 2011.

    Shareholding pattern

    December' 10 (% )

    Promoters 48.2

    Institutions 31.7

    Non promoter corp hold 4.7

    Public & others 15.4

    Performance rel. to sensex

    (%) 1m 3m 1yr

    ACC 2.3 0.8 1.1

    Ambuja (2.2) (7.1) 10.5

    Ultratech 2.6 (0.4) (9.8)India Cem. (5.0) (12.2) (33.7)

    Share price trend

    50

    100

    150

    Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Jan-11

    ACC Sensex

    Revival in volumes drives revenue

    OPM tumbles 855bps on the back of surge in RM, power and staffcosts

    Tax adjustments arrest fall at PAT levels

    Margin pressure to dampen earnings; Retain SELL

    Result table(Rs m) Q4 CY10 Q4 CY09 % yoy Q3 CY10 % qoq

    Net sales 20,889 19,839 5.3 16,885 23.7

    Material costs 2,822 2,148 31.4 3,312 (14.8)

    Personnel costs 1,486 917 62.1 1,174 26.6

    Power and fuel costs 4,513 3,949 14.3 3,615 24.8

    Freight cost 2,995 2,671 12.1 2,255 32.8

    Other overheads 5,673 5,228 8.5 4,316 31.4

    Operating profit 3,400 4,925 (31.0) 2,213 53.7

    OPM (%) 16.3 24.8 (855 bps) 13.1 317 bps

    Depreciation (1,119) (1,052) 6.4 (911) 22.9

    Interest (137) (181) (24.1) (162) (15.4)

    Other income 242 200 21.0 296 (18.2)

    PBT 2,386 3,892 (38.7) 1,436 66.2

    Tax 173 (1,092) (115.8) (435) (139.7)

    Effective tax rate (%) (7.2) 28.1 (125.8) 30.3 (123.9)

    Adjusted PAT 2,559 2,800 (8.6) 1,001 155.6

    Adj. PAT margin (%) 12.2 14.1 (187 bps) 5.9 632 bps

    Reported PAT 2,559 2,800 (8.6) 1,001 155.6

    Source: Company, India Infoline Research

    Revival in volumes drives revenueACC Q3 CY10 topline grew 5% yoy to Rs21bn, above our estimates ofRs20.1bn. This outperformance was largely due to revival in volumes,which rose 7% yoy in Q4 as against a decline of 3% registered during

    9M CY10, as new plants stabilized. We project the company willwitness 9% volume growth in CY11, which is higher than expected

    industry rate of 7%.

    To our surprise, average realization for ACC was down 5% but was up3% qoq (against our expectation of 5-8% increase) as cement priceswent northwards pan-India post Q3 CY10. We expect realization to

    improve in Q1 CY11 as most of the companies have announced freshround of price hikes during January 2011. Other operating incomegrew 110% yoy to further improve the companys top-line.

    Increase in RM, staff and power costs lead to OPM contractionOPM tumbled 855bps yoy to 16.3%, below our estimate of 22%. Lower

    than expected operating performance was on account of:

    A) Hike in slag and fly-ash prices translated into higher RM cost, B)Staff cost increased by 62% on the back of commencement of newunits coupled with increase in wages (Rs265/ton against Rs175/ton ayear ago), and C) Increase in power cost owing to jump ininternational coal prices.

  • 8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211

    11/17

    ACC (Q4 CY10)

    Resul t Updat e 2

    Cost Analysis

    Q4 CY10 Q4 CY09 bps yoy Q3 CY11 bps qoq

    Material costs 13.5 10.8 268 19.6 (611)

    Personnel costs 7.1 4.6 249 7.0 16

    Power and fuel costs 21.6 19.9 170 21.4 19

    Freight cost 14.3 13.5 87 13.4 98

    Other overheads 27.2 26.4 80 25.6 160

    Total costs 83.7 75.2 855 86.9 (317)

    Source: Company, India Infoline Research

    Tax adjustments arrest fall at PAT levels

    Reported PAT for ACC declined by 8% yoy basis to Rs2.6bn. This was despite a 38% drop at PBT levels asprior period tax adjustments led to a tax inflow during the quarter. Recent capacity addition resulted into

    depreciation cost being higher by ~6%.

    Pressu re on operating marg ins to continue; Maintain SELLACC volumes have fallen ~0.5% yoy in CY10, due to slowdown in cement consumption, delay in

    stabilization of new capacities and shortage of railway wagons. However, we project ACC to witness 9%volume growth in CY11, which is higher than expected industry rate of 7% on the back of stability in newplants and volume growth kicking in from acquisitions made in CY09. OPM would continue to remainunder pressure over the next two quarters given the pressure on realization and mounting costoverheads. We maintain SELL and downgrade our target price to Rs818, valuing ACC at 11X CY12 EPS of

    Rs74.

    Financial summaryY/e 31 Mar (Rs m) CY09 CY10E CY11E CY12E

    Revenues 80,272 79,758 90,689 105,686

    yoy growth (%) 10.2 (0.6) 13.7 16.5

    Operating profit 24,797 18,124 20,896 24,034

    OPM (%) 30.9 22.7 23.0 22.7Pre-exceptional PAT 16,068 11,200 12,041 13,979

    Reported PAT 16,068 11,200 12,041 13,979

    yoy growth (%) 32.5 (30.3) 7.5 16.1

    EPS (Rs) 85.5 59.6 64.1 74.4

    P/E (x) 11.5 16.5 15.4 13.2

    Price/Book (x) 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.2

    EV/EBITDA (x) 7.4 9.9 8.3 7.0

    Debt/Equity (x) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

    RoE (%) 30.0 18.4 18.2 18.2

    RoCE (%) 38.2 21.7 23.4 23.8Source: Company, India Infoline Research

  • 8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211

    12/17

    Ambuja Cements SELL

    (Q4 CY10)

    February 04, 2011

    Sector: Cement

    Sensex: 18,449

    CMP (Rs): 125

    Target price (Rs): 112

    Downside (%): 10.4

    52 Week h/l (Rs): 167 / 95

    Market cap (Rscr) : 19,131

    6m Avg vol (000Nos): 2,145

    No of o/s shares (mn): 1,530

    FV (Rs): 2

    Bloomberg code: ACEM IB

    Reuters code: ABUJ.BO

    BSE code: 500425

    NSE code: AMBUJACEM

    Closing price as on 3rd Feb, 2011.

    Shareholding pattern

    June' 10 (% )

    Promoters 46.4

    Institutions 42.4

    Non promoter corp hold 0.9

    Public & others 10.3

    Performance rel. to sensex

    (%) 1m 3m 1yr

    Ambuja (2.2) (7.1) 10.5

    ACC 2.3 0.8 1.1

    Ultratech 2.6 (0.4) (9.8)India Cem. (5.0) (12.2) (33.7)

    Share price trend

    50

    100

    150

    200

    Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Jan-11

    Ambuja Cem Sensex

    Revenues grew by 2%, below our estimate on account of lowerrealization

    Surge in power, freight and other overheads pulls down OPM by580bps yoy

    PAT grew 4% to Rs2.5bn aided by lower tax outflow

    Retain SELL; Traders at a premium to replacement cost

    Result table(Rs m) Q4 CY10 Q4 CY09 % yoy Q3 CY10 % qoq

    Net sales 18,274 17,877 2.2 15,830 15.4

    Material costs 1,653 2,241 (26.2) 609 171.4

    Personnel costs 775 784 (1.1) 989 (21.7)

    Power and fuel costs 4,461 3,272 36.3 4,426 0.8

    Freight cost 4,080 3,739 9.1 3,425 19.1

    Other overheads 3,776 3,349 12.8 3,359 12.4

    Operating profit 3,529 4,492 (21.4) 3,022 16.8

    OPM (%) 19.3 25.1 (581 bps) 19.1 22 bps

    Depreciation (1,086) (860) 26.3 (1,018) 6.7

    Interest (209) (55) 277.4 (89) 133.4

    Other income 378 395 (4.3) 305 23.9

    PBT 2,612 3,972 (34.2) 2,220 17.7

    Tax (102) (1,560) (93.5) (699) (85.4)

    Effective tax rate (%) 3.9 39.3 31.5

    Reported PAT 2,510 2,412 4.1 1,521 65.1

    Adj. PAT margin (%) 13.7 13.5 25 bps 9.6 413 bps

    Extra ordinary items 65 - - - -

    Adjusted PAT 2,575 2,412 6.8 1,521 69.3Ann. EPS (Rs) 6.5 6.3 4.1 4.0 65.1

    Source: Company, India Infoline Research

    Lower realization translate into mere 2% revenue growthACL revenues grew by mere 2% yoy to Rs18.3bn, below ourexpectation of Rs19bn as realization dropped 3.5% yoy. Surprisingly,average realization for the quarter stood flat on a qoq basis despite a5-15% price hike announced by most cement players during thequarter. ACL posted a 5% volume growth on the back ofcommissioning of new units.

    OPM contracts as power, freight and other overheads riseOPM for ACL contracted by 585bps yoy to 19.8%, below our estimateof 22.1%. Lower than expected operating performance was on accountof:

    A) Increase in diesel prices and transport strike at Himachal Pradesh,translating into higher freight cost, B) Surge in other overheads(Rs823/ton against Rs689/ton a year ago), and C) Increase in powercost due to increase in international coal prices.

    Raw material cost (lower clinker purchase) adjusted for inventorydecline by 26.2% yoy thereby arresting further slide at PBIDT level.

  • 8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211

    13/17

    Ambuja Cements (Q4 CY10)

    Resul t Updat e 2

    Cost Analysis

    Q4 CY10 Q4 CY09 bps yoy Q3 CY11 bps qoq

    Material costs 9.0 12.5 (349) 3.8 520

    Personnel costs 4.2 4.4 (14) 6.2 (201)

    Power and fuel costs 24.4 18.3 611 28.0 (355)

    Freight cost 22.3 20.9 141 21.6 69

    Other overheads 20.7 18.7 193 21.2 (56)

    Total costs 80.7 74.9 581 80.9 (22)

    Source: Company, India Infoline Research

    Prior tax adjustments translate into lower tax outgoReported PAT for ACL grew 4% yoy at 2.5bn. This increase in core earnings was due to lower income taxexpenses. Prior tax adjustments led to a lower tax outgo during the quarter as effective tax rate stood at4% as against 39.3% reported in Q4 CY09. Recent capacity addition resulted into depreciation andinterest cost being higher by ~26% and ~277% respectively.

    Retain Sell; remains expensive at CY11 EV/ ton of US$128

    We lower our OPM assumptions estimates for ACL as we factor in higher international coal pricestranslating into a 10% reduction in CY11E EPS. We project ACL to report earnings CAGR of 7.4% overCY10-12. Despite the recent correction in the stock price, ACL remains expensive at CY11 EV/tonUS$128, 7.7x EV/EBIDTA and 14.5x PE. We retain SELL rating with a revised price target of Rs112.

    Financial summaryY/e 31 Mar (Rs m) CY09 CY10E CY11E CY12E

    Revenues 72,008 75,176 81,535 87,892

    yoy growth (%) 13.8 4.4 8.5 7.8

    Operating profit 19,703 19,504 22,741 23,934

    OPM (%) 27.4 25.9 27.9 27.2

    Pre-exceptional PAT 12,169 12,365 13,271 14,274

    Reported PAT 12,169 12,630 13,271 14,274

    yoy growth (%) (12.4) 3.8 5.1 7.6

    EPS (Rs) 8.0 8.0 8.6 9.3

    P/E (x) 15.7 15.6 14.5 13.5

    Price/Book (x) 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.1

    EV/EBITDA (x) 9.3 9.0 7.7 7.2

    Debt/Equity (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    RoE (%) 20.1 17.9 17.1 16.4

    RoCE (%) 27.1 22.4 23.5 21.9Source: Company, India Infoline Research

  • 8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211

    14/17

    Marke t Mant r a

    Economy

    GDP growth (Quarterly) Inflation

    4,000

    5,000

    6,000

    7,000

    8,000

    9,000

    10,000

    11,000

    12,000

    13,000

    Sep-0

    5

    Mar-06

    Sep-0

    6

    Mar-07

    Sep-0

    7

    Mar-08

    Sep-0

    8

    Mar-09

    Sep-0

    9

    Mar-10

    Sep-1

    0

    (Rs bn)

    5.0

    7.0

    9.0

    11.0

    13.0(%)

    GDP (LHS) GDP Growth % (RHS)

    (2.0)

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    Dec-0

    6

    Feb-0

    7

    Apr-07

    Jun-0

    7

    Aug-0

    7

    Oct-07

    Dec-0

    7

    Feb-0

    8

    Apr-08

    Jun-0

    8

    Aug-0

    8

    Oct-08

    Dec-0

    8

    Feb-0

    9

    Apr-09

    Jun-0

    9

    Aug-0

    9

    Oct-09

    Dec-0

    9

    Feb-1

    0

    Apr-10

    Jun-1

    0

    Aug-1

    0

    Oct-10

    Dec-1

    0

    (%)

    G-Secs yield M3 grow th

    3.5

    4.5

    5.5

    6.5

    7.5

    8.5

    9.5

    Feb-09

    Apr-09

    Jun-09

    Aug-09

    Oct-09

    Nov-09

    Jan-10

    Mar-10

    May-10

    Jul-10

    Aug-10

    Oct-10

    Dec-10

    Jan-11

    (%)10 Yr Gsecs 5 Yr Gsecs

    1 Yr Gsecs

    25,000

    30,000

    35,000

    40,000

    45,000

    50,000

    55,000

    60,000

    65,000

    Jan-09

    Mar-09

    May-09

    Jul-09

    Aug-09

    Oct-09

    Dec-09

    Feb-10

    Apr-10

    Jun-10

    Jul-10

    Sep-10

    Nov-10

    Jan-11

    (Rs bn)

    0.0

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.0(%)

    M3 (LHS) M3 yoy % (RHS)

    `

    CRR, Repo II P and Six key infra industry grow th

    4.0

    4.5

    5.0

    5.5

    6.0

    6.5

    7.0

    Feb-0

    9

    Apr-09

    Jun-0

    9

    Aug-0

    9

    Oct-09

    Dec-0

    9

    Jan-1

    0

    Mar-10

    May-1

    0

    Jul-10

    Aug-1

    0

    Oct-10

    Dec-1

    0

    Jan-1

    1

    (%) CRR Repo

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    Dec-0

    8

    Apr-09

    Aug-0

    9

    Dec-0

    9

    Apr-10

    Aug-1

    0

    Dec-1

    0

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    14.0

    16.0

    18.0

    20.0IIP growth Six key infra ind growth (%)

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  • 8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211

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    Marke t Mant r a

    Event Calender

    Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

    February 01 February 02 February 03 February 04 February 05- India Dec

    exports yoy%

    36.4% vs 26.5%- India Dec

    imports yoy%-11.1% vs 11.2%

    - US constructionspending mom

    -2.5% vs 0.4%

    - BOI, NMDC,Glenmark,

    Syndicte Bank,

    Radico, Gati

    - US consumerconfidence

    -41 vs -44- US total vehicle

    sales12.5mn vs 12.5mn

    - Bharti, GlaxoCons, HeroHonda, Jet

    Airways,

    Wockhardt,Voltas

    - US initial joblessclaims

    415k vs 454k- US nonfarm

    productivity2.6% vs 2.3%

    - US factoryorders

    0.2% vs 0.7%

    - ACC, AmbujaCem, Engineers

    India, ICSA

    - US change innonfarm payrolls

    - USunemployment

    rate

    - Cipla, Cox &Kings, DivisLabs, Nag Const,

    OFSS, Suzlon,

    Balrampur Chini,GPIL

    - AurobindoPharma, PiramalLife, Bhushan

    Steel, Oil India,

    Eicher Mot,Mahindra Life

    February 07 February 08 February 09 February 10 February 11 February 12- India FY10 GDP

    YoY%

    - Anant Raj Ind,Bajaj Hind,

    Jubilanf Foods,Mundra Port,

    Punj Lloyd, LITL,

    SCI, Nagarjuna

    Fert

    - US consumercredit

    - Adani Power,Everonn, Pidilite,Power Grid, PTC

    - US consumerconfidence

    - Britannia, GMRInfra, M&M,Patni, REC,

    United Spirits

    - US initial joblessclaims

    - US wholesaleinventories

    - Bombay Dyeing,BGR Energy,Cairn India,

    Madras Cem,

    RCF

    - India Dec IIPdata

    - US trade balance

    - Aban, AdityaBirla, ApolloTyres, Gammon

    India, HPCL, Max

    India, Patel Eng

    - Adani Ent,Hindalco, IVRCLInfra

    February 14 February 15 February 16 February 17 February 18 February 19- India Jan

    wholesale price

    YoY%

    - Simplex Infra,Tata Power

    - US empiremanufac

    - US businessinventories

    - US import price

    index mom

    - US Jan IIP data- US building

    permits mom%

    - US housingstarts mom%

    - US Producerprice index mom

    - Hexaware

    - US Initial joblessclaims

    - US consumerprice index mom

    - US leading

    indicators

    - Nestle

    February 21 February 22 February 23 February 24 February 25 February 26- US consumer

    confidence

    - Ranbaxy

    - US existinghome sales mom

    - US durablegoods order

    - US house priceindex

    - US new homesales mom

    - US Q4 GDP data

    February 28- US personal

    spending

    Blue: Economic data, Black: results

  • 8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211

    17/17

    Recommendation parameters for fundamental reports:

    Buy Absolute return of over +10%

    Market Performer Absolute return between -10% to +10%

    Sell Absolute return below -10%

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