market mantra 040211
TRANSCRIPT
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8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211
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February 04, 2011
Indian market % change
Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD
Sensex 18,449 2.0 (9.9) (10.0)
Nifty 5,527 1.7 (10.3) (9.9)
BSE 100 2,275 1.7 (12.6) (10.2)
BSE 200 7,142 1.6 (13.2) (10.3)
CNX Midcap 7,847 1.2 (18.3) (11.4)BSE Smallcap 8,464 1.2 (21.7) (12.5)
Developed market % change
Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD
Dow Jones 12,062 0.2 7.6 4.2
Nasdaq 2,754 0.2 8.4 3.8
S&P 500 1,307 0.2 9.1 3.9
FTSE 5,983 (0.3) 4.1 1.4
CAC 4,037 (0.7) 5.0 6.1
DAX 7,194 0.1 8.7 4.0
Hang Seng* 23,909 1.8 (1.0) 3.8
Nikkei* 10,550 1.1 12.7 3.1
S&P/ASX200* 4,864 0.9 2.5 2.5* Markets are open
Emerging market % changeLast close 1 day 3 mth YTD
Shanghai Comp 2,799 0.3 (8.1) (0.3)
Brazil Bovespa 66,765 0.1 (7.1) (3.7)
Mexico Bolsa 37,739 (0.6) 5.3 (2.1)
Kospi* 2,072 0.1 8.0 1.0
Micex 1,750 (0.9) 13.6 3.7
Taiwan* 9,145 0.5 10.4 1.9
Straits* 3,211 0.8 (0.9) 0.7* Markets are open
Institutional activity
(Rs cr) Cash F&O MTD YTD
FIIs (46) (356) (8,009) (6,802)
MFs (223) - 1,223 840
FIIs Prov. 539
MFs Prov. (45)
Commodities % change
Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD
Crude (US$/bbl) 90.8 0.3 5.0 (0.6)
Gold (US$/oz) 1,352 (0.2) (2.9) (4.8)
Copper (US$/mt) 9,944 (0.2) 19.7 3.0
Aluminium (US$/mt) 2,514 0.1 5.2 2.2
Zinc (US$/mt) 2,452 (0.1) 3.0 0.3
Advance/Decline stocks
(Nos) A B S Total
Adv 159 1,130 243 1,763
Dec 44 609 152 1,037
Unch 0 115 36 184
A/D ratio (x)* 3.6 1.9 1.6 1.7*A/D excluding Unch
Trade value
(Rs cr) % chg
Cash NSE 11,696 (13.4)
Cash BSE 3,253 (0.7)
Total Cash 14,949 (10.9)
Delivery (%) 41.0 -
Derivatives 105,531 (0.7)
Currency % change
Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD
Rs/US$ 45.62 (0.0) (2.8) (2.0)
Rs/EUR 62.78 (0.5) (0.7) (4.7)
US$/GBP 1.61 0.0 (0.8) 3.4
US$/EUR 1.36 0.0 (4.0) 1.9
Yen/US$ 81.56 (0.1) (1.0) (0.5)
Bond market
Last Close (%) Bps chg
10yr Gsec 8.16 0.00
Call rate 6.60 0.00
Sensex intra-day
17,850
18,000
18,150
18,300
18,450
18,600
9:00 10:05 11:10 12:15 13:20 14:25 15:30
ADR/GDR
Latest (US$) Price % chg % Prem/Disc
Dr. Reddys 35.4 (0.3) 0.8
HDFC Bk 143.9 0.9 6.2
ICICI Bk 44.6 1.9 (0.9)
ITC 3.4 (3.6) (3.9)
Infosys 68.4 0.5 0.0
Ranbaxy 11.9 0.3 1.3
Reliance 41.1 2.3 (0.8)
Wipro 13.4 0.7 38.2
SBI 118.9 2.6 2.3
Tata Motors 25.7 6.4 1.3Sterlite 14.9 1.0 296.1
L&T 35.3 3.7 (1.1)
Finally, some relief!
Tru th m akes many appea ls , no t t he l east o f
w h i ch i s i t s pow er to shock . - Ju les Renard .
Thank god there was no afternoon shocker onThursday as was the case on Wednesday. After afive-day rout we had a solid advance. This couldsustain as FIIs were net buyers after a long hiatus.Also, the Nifty breached short term resistance of5470 and closed above 5500. Some short coveringis expected around 5550, which may take the Nifty
to 5570. A close above 5650 might just shore upinvestor confidence.
However, any major up-trend will take a while todevelop and wont be without hiccups. Resistanceis likely at 5600 and later around 5700-5750.
We expect a flat to steady start after which theindices could gain traction. But be careful as theundertone remains jittery and avoid getting hit byintraday volatility. FII flows will continue to have abearing on overall sentiment and so will theupcoming Budget.
US economic data has improved steadily,propelling the Dow above 12,000. All eyes are onFridays monthly jobs report.
Balrampur Chini, Cipla, Hindustan Copper, NCC and
Suzlon will declare their results today.
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News
Ma r ke t Ma n t r a
Corporate snippets
Wipro CFO sells more than half of his companyshares. (BS)
Infosys is rehauling its hierarchical systemand making internal process more flexible for
young employees to stem attrition and attracttalent. (ET)
NTPC will not open price bids for the Rs110bnbulk equipment supply tender on Friday. (ET)
NTPC has floated bids for 800MW bulk super-critical units for Rs190bn. (BS)
Vedanta may terminate US$9.6bn deal ifCairn I ndia tweaks royalty clause. (ET)
M&M has rolled out a mobile seva initiative toprovide services for its three wheelers andother commercial vehicles in AP, Tamil Nadu,Kerala and Karnataka. (BL)
ITC may soon hike prices of its packaged foodsproduct by 7-8%. (BL)
Bank of India to raise Tier-I capital throughthe issue of 30mn fresh equity share. (BL)
Mahindra Satyam is wooing back selectformer employees. (BL)
Wipro to set up an exclusive delivery centre in
Toronto to develop software solutions and cutdown Canadian companies energyconsumption bill. (BL)
SAIL FPO is likely to hit the market only byend-March. (BL)
IIFCL to lend up to Rs40bn in the currentquarter to REC and PFC. (ET)
Bank of Baroda, Andhra Bank and UnionBank of India have raised their base rates by50bps. (BS)
Power Ministry to seek cabinet nod for PFCFPO. (ET)
L&T Infra Finance Company has hit the marketwith its second issue of tax saving long-terminfrastructure bonds. (ET)
Religare Wellness plans to buy equity stakesin companies across several African and SouthAsian countries. (ET)
Whirlpool to invest Rs1.25bn on new productdevelopment, marketing and enhancinginfrastructure. (ET)
Arvind life style brand is close to sealing alicensing deal with French womens brand, Elle.(ET)
Camlin has signed a MoU with Japan leadingbrand Zebra. (BS)
Karuturi Global has acquired 58% stake inFlorista India through a share swap deal. (BS)
Economy snippets
Food inflation rose to 17% for the week endedJanuary 22. (BL)
Over 1.1mn mobile users have opted for MNPwithin a fortnight of the facility becomingavailable. (ET)
RBI to tighten oversight norms for portfoliomanagement. (BS)
India may need to import 142mn tons of coalnext year to bridge the estimated shortfall indomestic production. (BL)
Results tableRs mn Revenue % yoy PAT % yoy
NMDC 26,212 65.1 15,180 81.4
MothersonSumi
21,525 18.6 1,063 42.1
ACC 20,889 5.3 2,559 (8.6)
AmbujaCements
18,274 2.2 2,575 6.8
ICSA 3,652 16.6 315 4.7
ADSL 1,737 (2.9) 197 (27.3)
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Technicals
Ma r ke t Ma n t r a
Nifty price/ volume
10:A S O N D 11:J F
Log IRIS
Source : www.SpiderSoftwareIndia.Com 5200
5400
5600
5800
6000
6200
6400
Cr
50.00
100
Price Avg3(S,200,S,100,S,50)
Vol
NSE Nifty [N59901] 5430.45, 5532.65, 5418.00, 5526.75, 651750400 1.74%
Dly
20
26
Nifty posted smart gains to cross short termresistance of 5,470 and closing well above 5,500levels. Hourly chart in Nifty suggest formation of
classic inverted head and shoulder, which isgenerally considered as a signs of a bottoming outand it could provide relief to the Nifty atleasttowards 5,570(based on amplitude). For theweekly confirmation Nifty needs to close above5,650 levels in order to void the medium termdowntrend.
Support/ Resistance levelsClose Support Resistance
Nifty 5,527 5,490 5,575
Sensex 18,445 18,310 18,670
Abnormal change in delivery Stock NSEDely (%) Prev NSEDely (%) Price % chg
Heg 86.2 22.2 (0.2)
Essaroil 37.0 59.6 1.1
Bhusanstl 17.4 7.1 1.2
Amtekauto 54.8 23.1 (0.8)
Orchidchem 16.6 7.0 3.5
Positive breakoutCompany name CMP
10 DaysMVG avg
Price %chg
20 DaysMVG avg
Tata Inv Corp 547.2 535.1 2.3 537.0
Religare Enterpr 485.0 476.3 1.8 470.3
Dlf Ltd 244.0 239.7 1.8 250.2
Network 18 Med 147.6 145.1 1.7 139.1
Torrent Pharma 596.9 587.0 1.7 588.5
India Infoline 78.6 77.4 1.5 77.5
Jindal Saw Ltd 217.5 214.5 1.4 214.4
Titan Inds Ltd 3,595.1 3,551.0 1.2 3,493.0
Steel Authority 164.4 162.5 1.2 167.0
Divi Labs Ltd 633.1 626.1 1.1 627.3
Chambal Fertilizers (BUY, above Rs74, Target
Rs78): In yesterdays session, the stock recoveredsome of its lost ground following recent decline and
closed above its 100-DMA. It now faces aresistance at Rs78-79 levels and should have a
minimum upside till that level. Our argument isfurther validated after the stock gave an upsidebreakout on Thursdays session as the price brokethrough the top of a trading range. Moreover, onthe weekly chart, the stock has taken strongsupport at Rs72, which acted as a breakout pointin September 2010. Based on above mentioned
technical evidences, we recommend tradersw ith high risk appetite to buy the stock above
Rs72 w ith SL of Rs72 for target of Rs78.
L&T (BUY, between Rs1,610-1,615 Target
Rs1,665): L&T has signaled reversal from themedium term down trend after formation of bullishengulfing pattern on the daily chart with spurt involumes. The reversal pattern has come close toimportant Fibonacci support of Rs1550 andrecovery could all the way extend towards
Rs1720.The RSI is also trading with positivedivergence accompanied with positive crossover
which supports buying argument in the counter.We advise buying stock in the range ofRs1,610-1,615 with stop loss of Rs1,590 forTarget of Rs1,665. (Duration 5 Days).
Negative breakoutCompany name CMP
10 DaysMVG avg
Price %chg
20 DaysMVG avg
Nocil Ltd 17.2 17.4 (1.4) 17.9
Sanghvi Movers 146.0 147.8 (1.3) 153.9
Sintex Indus Ltd 148.8 150.6 (1.2) 158.5
Reliance Infrast 704.5 712.5 (1.1) 750.4
Essar Shipping 99.0 100.1 (1.1) 100.7
Tata Elxsi Ltd 258.5 261.1 (1.0) 272.8
Oberoi Realty 242.9 245.2 (1.0) 245.9
Bank Of Maharash 59.6 60.1 (0.9) 61.1
Bajaj Finance Lt 597.0 601.9 (0.8) 624.0
Usha Martin Ltd 59.0 59.4 (0.7) 63.7
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Technicals
Ma r ke t Ma n t r a
Pivot tableCompany
CMP(Rs)
Supp1
Supp2 Pivot Res 1 Res 2
ABB 707 697 688 705 715 725
ACC 984 974 966 982 992 1,002
Ambuja Cem 125 121 118 124 128 132
BHEL 2,191 2,150 2,126 2,173 2,215 2,256BPCL 596 570 533 607 633 658
Bharti 340 326 318 334 348 362
Cairn 332 328 325 331 335 339
Cipla 329 325 321 329 334 338
DLF 244 231 223 239 252 265
Gail 464 458 452 464 470 476
Grasim 2,294 2,257 2,236 2,278 2,315 2,352
HCL Tech 491 484 475 493 501 508
HDFC Bank 2,061 2,023 1,999 2,048 2,085 2,123
Hero Honda 1,564 1,521 1,495 1,548 1,590 1,632
Hindalco 246 238 234 243 250 258
HUL 279 274 269 278 283 289
HDFC 624 616 610 623 631 639
ICICI Bank 1,027 1,008 993 1,023 1,042 1,061
Idea 72 69 67 70 73 76
Infosys 3,118 3,085 3,051 3,119 3,152 3,184
ITC 159 158 156 159 161 163
L&T 1,631 1,580 1,551 1,610 1,660 1,711
M&M 706 696 688 704 714 723
Maruti 1,218 1,206 1,194 1,218 1,230 1,243
Nalco 422 411 405 418 428 438
NTPC 182 180 178 181 184 186
ONGC 1,195 1,179 1,169 1,189 1,205 1,222
Powergrid 99 96 95 98 100 103
PNB 1,085 1,073 1,062 1,084 1,096 1,108
Ranbaxy 537 533 529 538 542 546
Rcom 118 115 113 117 120 123
Reliance 944 923 911 935 956 976
Reliance Infra 704 684 672 697 717 737
ReiancePower 131 127 125 129 133 136
Satyam 61 60 60 61 62 63
Siemens 850 844 838 851 856 862
SBI 2,652 2,589 2,554 2,624 2,687 2,750
SAIL 164 160 158 163 167 171
Sterlite 172 169 167 171 173 176
Sunpharma 437 430 425 435 442 450
Suzlon 49 48 48 49 49 50
Tata Com. 237 233 230 236 240 245
TCS 1,184 1,171 1,159 1,183 1,196 1,209
Tata Motors 1,157 1,112 1,086 1,138 1,183 1,227
Tata Power 1,227 1,212 1,200 1,223 1,238 1,253
Tata Steel 638 629 623 635 644 653Unitech 46 45 44 46 47 49
Wipro 442 434 429 439 447 455
Zee 115 112 110 114 117 120
A pivot is a level at which the market direction changes for the day.These points can be critical support and resistance levels for that day.
Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on thestock or index.
Top gainersCompany Price (Rs) Price % chg % YTD chg
Bf Utilities Ltd 844.9 20.0 (8.2)
Teledata Inform 2.7 18.8 (6.2)
Bajaj Finance Lt 599.6 10.1 (14.8)
Polaris Software 186.0 10.0 6.6
Mascon Global 1.7 9.0 (26.1)
Top losersCompany Price (Rs) Price % chg % YTD chg
Aztecsoft Ltd 451.6 (4.8) (19.4)
Inox Leisure Ltd 50.2 (4.8) (20.3)
Phoenix Mills 193.1 (4.6) (13.4)
Sobha Developers 232.6 (4.6) (28.5)
Pidilite Inds 129.8 (4.1) (14.7)
Volume ToppersCompany Price (Rs) Price % chg Vol % chg
Simplex Infrastr 355.4 3.9 46,086.7
Entertainment Ne 219.5 2.0 2,587.4
Aztecsoft Ltd 451.6 (4.8) 1,384.7
Akruti Nirman 216.7 2.0 1,285.9
Usha Martin Ltd 58.8 5.1 1,119.8
Sector watchPrice % chg
BSE Indices Last close 1 day 1 week 1 mth 50 DMA
BSE Bankex 12,112 2.0 (10.0) (17.3) 13,505
BSE Realty 2,276 3.9 (20.7) (37.8) 3,210
BSE HC 6,163 0.2 (8.9) (6.5) 6,433
BSE Metals 16,477 2.2 (8.3) (3.5) 16,860
BSE Oil & Gas 9,611 1.7 (9.3) (11.4) 10,505
BSE Auto 8,755 1.4 (14.3) (13.1) 9,789
BSE IT 6,403 0.7 (6.1) 5.1 6,258
BSE Power 2,709 1.6 (9.8) (14.0) 3,038
BSE FMCG 3,316 0.5 (10.2) (9.4) 3,609
BSE PSU 8,767 1.7 (7.9) (15.1) 9,736
BSE Cap Goods 13,390 2.5 (13.5) (18.8) 15,369
BSE CD 5,976 0.9 (7.4) (14.1) 6,342
BSE 200 2,275 1.7 (10.6) (12.6) 2,494
BSE 500 7,142 1.6 (10.7) (13.2) 7,861
BSE Mid Cap 6,828 1.1 (13.3) (20.0) 7,912
BSE Small Cap 8,464 1.2 (14.0) (21.7) 9,943
CNX 500 4,430 1.5 (10.8) (13.0) 4,867
Note :
Ideas given under the Technicals section are for intraday purpose or upto a period of three trading sessions. Stocks recommended under this
heading are not necessarily part of our fundamental buy or sell list.
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Deals
Ma r ke t Ma n t r a
Bulk dealsDate Scrip name Client name B/S Qty ('000) Avg price (Rs) Deal size (Rs m)
3/2/2011 Simplex Infrastructures Citigroup Global Markets Mauritius B 1,967 350 688.5
3/2/2011 Kalindee Rail Nirman (Eng Hdfc Mututal Fund S 247 151 37.3
3/2/2011 Simplex Infrastructures Hsbc Global Investment Fund A/C S 1,966 350 688.2
3/2/2011 BGIL Films Enaam Securities S 65 5 0.3
3/2/2011 Kalindi Rail Hdfc Mututal Fund S 115 153 17.5
Insider trades
Company name Acquirer Transaction date B/SQty
('000)Shares
transactions (%)Holding after
transaction (%)Andhra Cements Ltd ISG Traders Ltd 18/01/2011 S 1941.5 1.3 35.8
Arshiya International Ltd Ajay Sapra 1/0/1900 - 0.0 - -
Bajaj Hindusthan Ltd Jayakumar Narayanswami 27/01/2011 B 420.3 13.6 13.6
Banswara Syntex Ltd Shaleen Toshniwal 27/01/2011 B 20.0 - 8.6
Banswara Syntex Ltd Shaleen Toshniwal 28/01/2011 B 10.0 - 8.7
Bartronics India Ltd R Shobha Rani Reddy 28/01/2011 S 100.0 0.3 -
Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Mrs. Mandakin P Bhagwati 17/01/2011 B 0.2 - 8.6
Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Mrs. Mandakin P Bhagwati 18/01/2011 B 0.1 - 8.6
Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Mrs. Mandakin P Bhagwati 19/01/2011 B 0.1 - 8.6
Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Mrs. Mandakin P Bhagwati 20/01/2011 B 0.1 - 8.6
Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Mrs. Mandakin P Bhagwati 21/01/2011 B 0.1 - 8.6
Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Reena P Bhagwati 17/01/2011 B 0.2 - 11.2
Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Reena P Bhagwati 18/01/2011 B 0.2 - 11.2
Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Reena P Bhagwati - B 0.1 - 11.2
Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Reena P Bhagwati 20/01/2011 B 0.1 - 11.2
Bhagwati Autocast Ltd Reena P Bhagwati 21/01/2011 B 0.1 - 11.2
Dhampur Sugar Mills Ltd Gaurav Goel 27/01/2011 B 25.0 - 2.0
Dhampur Sugar Mills Ltd Gaurav Goel 28/01/2011 B 25.0 - 2.1
Dhampur Sugar Mills Ltd Gaurav Goel 31/01/2011 B 25.0 - 2.1
Dhampur Sugar Mills Ltd Gautam Goel 27/01/2011 B 25.0 - 2.1
Dhampur Sugar Mills Ltd Gautam Goel 28/01/2011 B 25.0 - 2.1
Dhampur Sugar Mills Ltd Gautam Goel 31/01/2011 B 25.0 - 2.1
Eid Parry India Ltd Ravindra S Singhvi 1/0/1900 - 0.0 - -
Elpro International Ltd R C A Ltd -- B 1.0 0.0 2.8
Elpro International Ltd R C A Ltd -- B 3.5 0.1 2.7
Elpro International Ltd R C A Ltd -- B 3.6 0.1 2.8
Elpro International Ltd R C A Ltd -- B 4.5 0.1 2.9
Envair Electrodyne Ltd Shripad Mirashi 18/01/2011 - 19/01/2011 B 1.1 0.0 53.4
Envair Electrodyne Ltd Shripad Mirashi 21/01/2011 B 0.2 - 53.4
Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 18/01/2011 S 28.8 - 2.9
Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 18/01/2011 S 30.0 - 2.9
Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 19/01/2011 S 44.1 - 2.9
Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 19/01/2011 S 65.0 - 2.8
Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 20/01/2011 S 56.4 - 2.7
Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 20/01/2011 S 57.3 - 2.6
Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 25/01/2011 S 40.0 - 2.5
Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 25/01/2011 S 40.0 - 2.6
Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 27/01/2011 S 19.9 - 2.5
Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 27/01/2011 S 19.9 - 2.5
Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 28/01/2011 S 20.0 - 2.4
Gallantt Metal Ltd Gallantt Ispat Ltd 28/01/2011 S 20.0 - 2.5
Gemstone Investments Ltd Sanjay Parekh 27/01/2011 S 250.0 0.3 -
Gemstone Investments Ltd Vinesh Kothari 27/01/2011 S 100.0 0.1 -
Geometric Ltd Manu Parpia 27/01/2011 - 28/01/2011 S 47.5 0.1 6.8
Hi-Tech Gears Ltd Pranav Kapuria 19/01/2011 - 20/01/2011 B 1.8 - 4.3
FII s tradesScrip name Volume ('000) Price (Rs) Prem/Disc (%)
Bank of Baroda 40.1 890.0 3.9
PNB 218.2 1150.2 6.0
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Derivatives
Ma r ke t Ma n t r a
Nifty volatility Index declined to 22.69 from
23.52, decreased by 3.53% . Total Nifty futures added 0.08mn shares in
open interest. Call open interest for Feb series shed 2.02mn
shares in Open Interest. Put open interest for Feb series added 3.14mn
shares in Open Interest.
Nifty put call ratio of open interest now standsat 1.24 vs 1.16.
Nifty put call ratio of volume now stands at0.95 vs 0.86.
Maximum open interest in calls for Feb series isat 5,700 strike prices.
Maximum open interest in Puts for Feb series isat 5,400 strike prices.
Nifty Feb 5,500 Call sheds 1.43mn shares in
open interest. Nifty Feb 5,500 Put added 1.26mn shares in
open interest.
Strategies
Long Sintex Feb Future in range of Rs150 151 for the target price of Rs158 with a stoploss placed at Rs147.
Lot size: 2000Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs16,000 andnet maximum loss of Rs8,000.
Long Canara Bank Feb Future in range ofRs575 - 576 for the target price of Rs595 witha stop loss placed at Rs566.Lot size: 500Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs10,000 andnet maximum loss of Rs5,000.
Nifty open interest chart
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
5-Nov-10 3-Dec-10 31-Dec-10 28-Jan-11
OI & Vol
(lacs)
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500Nifty
Nifty snapshotCurrent Previous % Chg
Near month price 5,539 5,443 1.8
Near month Pre/Disc 12.2 10.5 16.2
Mid month price 5,555 5,458 1.8
Mid month Pre/Disc 28.7 26.1 10.0
OI* (000) 23,717 23,631 0.4Volume (000) 23,845 26,334 (9.5)
PCR (OI) 1.2 1.2 7.7
PCR (Vol) 0.9 0.9 9.6
Roll-over (%) 7.7 6.7 16.0
FII derivative data(Rs cr) Buy Sell Net Contracts OI % chg
Index Futures 1,607 2,028 (421) 42,283 11
Index Option 5,668 5,664 4 6,050 0
Stock Futures 1,433 1,318 115 11,122 1
Stock Options 468 521 (53) 2,013 11
Institutional activity(Rs cr) Cash F&O MTD YTD
FII's (46.1) (356.0) (8,009.0) (6,802.2)
MF's (222.7) - 1,222.6 839.8
FIIs Prov. 538.7
MFs Prov. (45.5)
Overall market3-Feb-11 2-Feb-11 1-Feb-11
Value %chg
Index Future (Rs cr) 15,626 16,964 19,254 (7.9)
Stock Future (Rs cr) 14,282 15,710 15,307 (9.1)
Index Options (Rs cr) 71,904 70,162 86,098 2.5
Stock Options (Rs cr) 3,720 3,406 3,481 9.2
Index Future (Cont '000) 606 658 746 (7.9)
Stock Future (Cont '000) 543 603 589 (9.9)
Index Options (Cont '000) 2,585 2,515 3,080 2.8Stock Options (Cont '000) 133 124 127 7.3
PCR (OI) 0.9 0.9 0.9 9.7
PCR (VOI) 0.4 0.4 0.3 (8.9)
Nifty strikes open interest
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900
OI in ('000) Call Put
Sector-w ise OI
-2
0
2
4
6
Automobiles
Banking
Capital
goods&
Infra
Cemen
t
Fertilizers
FMCG IT
RealEstate
Media
Metals
Oil&
Gas
Pharma
Power
Logistics
Sugar
Textile
Telecom
Others
TotalFuture
% Chg
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Ma r ke t Ma n t r a
Derivatives
Futures open interest gainersScrip OI ('000) % change CMP (Rs) % change Volume ('000) % change Prem/Disc (Rs)
Idfc 23,046.0 22.5 141.6 (0.4) 14,850.0 77.8 (1.1)
Cumminsind 387.0 22.1 683.4 (4.2) 282.5 34.8 (0.4)
Hindalco 17,066.0 21.6 245.9 4.8 24,598.0 22.0 0.2
Canbk 1,323.0 20.3 578.0 0.9 1,725.5 (3.8) (4.1)
Nationalum 1,019.5 13.7 395.4 1.8 322.0 88.9 26.4
Ambujacem 10,790.0 13.5 124.3 2.9 8,586.0 286.1 0.9
Jswsteel 3,173.8 11.7 933.2 0.0 2,841.8 0.7 (6.9)
Syndibank 3,810.0 10.1 113.9 6.3 4,544.0 150.8 (0.8)
Denabank 6,612.0 9.6 106.1 4.1 4,924.0 48.2 (0.8)
Sintex 3,826.0 9.4 150.2 5.1 1,880.0 164.8 (1.0)
Lichsgfin 16,891.3 9.2 179.7 3.8 9,205.0 3.9 (1.8)
Futures open interest losersScrip OI ('000) % change CMP (Rs) % change Volume ('000) % change Prem/Disc (Rs)
Pfc 777.0 (14.3) 262.7 3.9 593.0 (49.7) (1.0)
Reliance 15,764.8 (2.6) 946.5 2.5 5,446.5 (28.0) (2.6)
Pfc 777.0 (14.3) 262.7 3.9 593.0 (49.7) (1.0)
Indiacem 7,024.0 (8.8) 92.4 4.7 2,380.0 (82.7) (0.3)
Albk 1,017.0 (7.2) 206.7 2.7 689.0 28.3 (1.0)Bharatforg 6,053.0 (7.0) 338.8 (0.3) 3,531.0 72.0 (2.4)
Sbin 3,321.9 (5.0) 2,657.9 2.7 3,531.0 (6.9) (6.2)
Cipla 3,567.0 (3.9) 330.3 1.1 1,444.0 46.9 (0.9)
Hdil 18,219.0 (3.6) 140.2 6.4 10,546.0 (26.5) (0.4)
Grasim 266.9 (3.6) 2,303.1 2.2 46.1 (66.4) (9.1)
Indianb 1,437.0 (2.8) 217.4 2.4 269.0 29.3 (0.7)
Most active stock calls Most active nifty calls
Scrip Strike OI ('000)%
change CMP(Rs)Volume
('000) Strike OI ('000) % change CMP(Rs) Volume('000)
Tatamotors 1150 1,420.8 309.7 58.1 8,628.0 5500 4,773.6 (23.1) 121.1 19,420.5
Tatamotors 1200 688.8 (9.1) 37.5 4,673.0 5600 4,673.0 (2.5) 71.0 16,364.4
Unitech 50 5,820.0 19.6 1.6 5,529.0 5700 6,355.2 2.9 37.7 11,203.0
Tatamotors 1300 1,602.8 2.0 13.8 3,318.0 5800 4,600.5 (4.4) 18.1 5,471.4
Hindalco 250 1,024.0 21.0 7.4 1,607.0 5400 2,020.2 (13.1) 188.0 4,460.2
Sbin 2700 160.5 (10.8) 54.1 2,181.0 5900 3,941.4 (1.3) 8.3 2,169.4
Tatamotors 1250 614.8 14.3 22.5 2,113.0 6000 4,186.8 1.4 4.5 1,606.8
Tatasteel 640 1,378.0 0.3 19.2 1,745.0 6100 1,683.5 1.8 3.0 719.5
Reliance 940 301.0 (13.4) 30.0 2,105.0 5700 703.8 14.4 113.0 520.0
Tatamotors 1100 342.5 1.3 84.2 1,613.0 5800 964.6 11.5 75.9 420.4
Most active stock puts Most active nifty puts
Scrip Strike OI ('000)%
change CMP(Rs)Volume
('000) Strike OI ('000) % change CMP(Rs) Volume('000)
Tatamotors 1100 288.3 70.1 34.5 2,260.0 5400 9338.8 13.6 54.6 17364.7
Reliance 900 450.3 35.2 8.7 2,119.0 5500 6589.3 23.8 87.3 14148.0
Reliance 920 272.0 44.1 14.2 1,652.0 5300 4929.8 16.5 33.6 9745.5Hindalco 230 1,058.0 54.2 3.5 639.0 5200 4835.3 8.0 20.5 7153.0
Tatasteel 620 879.5 (2.8) 10.0 937.0 5100 2767.9 (11.3) 13.4 3674.0
Hindalco 240 596.0 223.9 6.5 582.0 5600 3280.0 (2.0) 133.0 2306.5
Sbin 2500 80.0 13.7 22.8 885.0 5000 2290.4 18.2 8.9 2208.6
Tatamotors 1050 203.5 23.0 18.5 1,042.0 5700 1661.3 (12.1) 198.0 838.8
Icicibank 1000 161.0 11.4 21.7 1,054.0 4900 630.6 (4.6) 5.9 624.1
Sbin 2600 68.5 18.1 51.5 741.0 5400 2991.4 2.9 132.5 452.6
*OI= Open Interest
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8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211
8/17
Mutual Funds
Ma r ke t Ma n t r a
Fund focus
ICICI Prudential Dynamic Fund Invest
Fund manager Sankaran Naren Min investment Rs5,000
Latest NAV Rs103.8 Entry load Nil
NAV 52 high/low Rs112/87 Exit load 1% before 1 year
Latest AUM Rs2,785cr Benchmark S&P CNX Nifty
Class Equity diversified Asset allocation Equity (81%), Cash (19%)
Options Growth & dividend Expense ratio 1.85%
Top Recommended Funds (Absolute returns (in %) are based on previous close)Equity Diversified
Assets(Rs Cr)
NAV(Rs) 1wk 1mth 3mth 6mth 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr
ICICI Prudential Dynamic - (G) 2,785 103.8 (2.0) (7.2) (6.1) 1.7 15.6 116.8 23.8 133.1
Reliance Equity Opportunities (G) 2,861 34.1 (3.0) (11.5) (12.6) (2.0) 18.9 169.5 25.6 122.5
HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities (G) 1,221 14.5 (4.1) (11.6) (14.9) (2.1) 16.9 149.1 22.9 --
Equity Thematic
Reliance Pharma Fund (G) 544 53.7 (1.9) (8.0) (5.4) 2.3 23.7 206.5 127.8 185.0
ICICI Pru Tech Fund (G) 228 18.8 (2.7) (7.8) 3.6 18.8 35.9 210.4 23.8 79.8
Franklin FMCG Fund (G) 51 61.6 (4.5) (10.9) (11.5) (3.3) 22.3 99.9 54.3 95.5
Equity Tax saving
Fidelity Tax Advantage (G) 950 16.4 (3.6) (11.9) (14.8) (5.0) 11.4 116.2 3.4 --
HDFC Tax Saver (G) 2,970 225.6 (2.4) (9.6) (12.4) (0.5) 15.6 145.5 25.9 96.5
ICICI Prudential Tax Plan (G) 1,320 136.0 (2.3) (10.3) (10.9) (1.3) 13.4 155.3 22.2 79.5
Hybrid
HDFC Prudence Fund (G) 5,965 204.7 (2.0) (7.3) (9.4) (0.1) 17.5 135.5 38.7 132.7
HDFC MIP LTP (G) 10,000 22.5 (0.6) (2.2) (2.3) 2.0 8.6 45.7 33.6 69.7
Reliance RSF - Balanced (G) 806 21.6 (3.0) (9.0) (12.4) (2.7) 13.5 111.9 38.2 112.5
Debt Money marketHDFC Cash Mgmt Fund SP (G) 2,108 20.2 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.3 5.8 11.2 21.2 40.2
SBI Magnum Insta Cash (G) 3,468 21.5 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.4 5.8 10.6 20.2 38.1
Reliance Money Manager (G) 10,000 1,306.4 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.2 5.6 11.3 21.4 --
Debt Floating rate
Reliance Floating Rate Fund (G) 2,739 15.2 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.6 11.3 21.6 41.0
Kotak Floater LTP (G) 3,027 15.4 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.4 6.0 11.9 22.0 42.2
Tata Floater Fund (G) 3,323 14.5 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.5 6.1 11.9 22.3 41.7
NFO UpdateFund name Open date Close date Type
#Class
UTIFixedIncomeIntervalFund MonthlyIntervalPlanII 8Feb 8Feb CE Debt FMP
Kotak
FMP
Series
34
3
Feb 8
Feb CE Debt FMPIDFCFMPYearlySeries37(1YearFMP) 4Feb 9Feb CE Debt FMP
L&TFMPIII(January369DA). 31Jan 9Feb CE Debt FMP#OE: Open Ended, CE: Close Ended
Recent Actions
SBI Debt Fund Series- 180 Days-11 declares dividend. The record date is February 8, 2011.
Birla Sun Life Short Term FMP- Series 2 declares dividend. The record date is February 7, 2011.
ICICI Prudential Quarterly Interval- II- Plan B declares dividend. The record date is February 7, 2011.
HDFC Quarterly Interval Fund- Plan C declares dividend. The record date is February 7, 2011.
DSPBR Equity Fund declares 35% dividend. The record date is February 4, 2011.
Birla SunLife Mutual Fund declares dividend under three equity schemes namely BSL Frontline Equity Fund (12.5%), BSL
Advantage Fund (45%) and BSL Basic Industries Fund (11.5%). The record date is February 4, 2011.
Disclaimer: Mutual Fund is subject to market risk, please read the offer document carefully before investing.
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8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211
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House Recommendations
Ma r ke t Ma n t r a
House RecommendationsThe large cap Buys and Sells are relative outperformer and underperformer bets vis--vis the Niftyrespectively. Reduce portfolio weight in stocks with Sell rating. Midcap Buys are based on absolute returnexpectations.
Top Large-cap BuysStock Sector Sector View CMP (Rs) M-Cap (Rs bn)
L&T Infrastructure Positive 1,581 999.2
M&M Auto Positive 705 437.2
REC NBFC Positive 238 241.0
SBI Banking Positive 2,596 1,677.0
Sterlite Industries Metals Neutral 165 551.1
Tata Steel Metals Neutral 631 575.4
Source: India Infoline Research
Best Mid-cap Buys
Stock Sector CMP (Rs) M-Cap (Rs bn)
OnMobile Telecom 235 14.3
Petronet LNG Oil & Gas 126 96.5
Radico Khaitan Breweries 136 17.8
Unity Infra Infrastructure 80 6.1
Yes Bank Banking 265 91.2
Source: India Infoline Research
Top Large-cap Sells
Stock Sector Sector View CMP (Rs) M-Cap (Rs bn)
ACC Cement Negative 974 185.5
NALCO Metals Neutral 402 254.0
Source: India Infoline Research
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8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211
10/17
ACC SELL
(Q4 CY10)
February 04, 2011
Sector: Cement
Sensex: 18,449
CMP (Rs): 986
Target price (Rs): 818
Downside (%): 17.0
52 Week h/l (Rs): 1133 / 700
Market cap (Rscr) : 18,509
6m Avg vol (000Nos): 485
No of o/s shares (mn): 188
FV (Rs): 10
Bloomberg code: ACC IB
Reuters code: ACC.BO
BSE code: 500410
NSE code: ACC
Closing price as on 03 Feb, 2011.
Shareholding pattern
December' 10 (% )
Promoters 48.2
Institutions 31.7
Non promoter corp hold 4.7
Public & others 15.4
Performance rel. to sensex
(%) 1m 3m 1yr
ACC 2.3 0.8 1.1
Ambuja (2.2) (7.1) 10.5
Ultratech 2.6 (0.4) (9.8)India Cem. (5.0) (12.2) (33.7)
Share price trend
50
100
150
Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Jan-11
ACC Sensex
Revival in volumes drives revenue
OPM tumbles 855bps on the back of surge in RM, power and staffcosts
Tax adjustments arrest fall at PAT levels
Margin pressure to dampen earnings; Retain SELL
Result table(Rs m) Q4 CY10 Q4 CY09 % yoy Q3 CY10 % qoq
Net sales 20,889 19,839 5.3 16,885 23.7
Material costs 2,822 2,148 31.4 3,312 (14.8)
Personnel costs 1,486 917 62.1 1,174 26.6
Power and fuel costs 4,513 3,949 14.3 3,615 24.8
Freight cost 2,995 2,671 12.1 2,255 32.8
Other overheads 5,673 5,228 8.5 4,316 31.4
Operating profit 3,400 4,925 (31.0) 2,213 53.7
OPM (%) 16.3 24.8 (855 bps) 13.1 317 bps
Depreciation (1,119) (1,052) 6.4 (911) 22.9
Interest (137) (181) (24.1) (162) (15.4)
Other income 242 200 21.0 296 (18.2)
PBT 2,386 3,892 (38.7) 1,436 66.2
Tax 173 (1,092) (115.8) (435) (139.7)
Effective tax rate (%) (7.2) 28.1 (125.8) 30.3 (123.9)
Adjusted PAT 2,559 2,800 (8.6) 1,001 155.6
Adj. PAT margin (%) 12.2 14.1 (187 bps) 5.9 632 bps
Reported PAT 2,559 2,800 (8.6) 1,001 155.6
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Revival in volumes drives revenueACC Q3 CY10 topline grew 5% yoy to Rs21bn, above our estimates ofRs20.1bn. This outperformance was largely due to revival in volumes,which rose 7% yoy in Q4 as against a decline of 3% registered during
9M CY10, as new plants stabilized. We project the company willwitness 9% volume growth in CY11, which is higher than expected
industry rate of 7%.
To our surprise, average realization for ACC was down 5% but was up3% qoq (against our expectation of 5-8% increase) as cement priceswent northwards pan-India post Q3 CY10. We expect realization to
improve in Q1 CY11 as most of the companies have announced freshround of price hikes during January 2011. Other operating incomegrew 110% yoy to further improve the companys top-line.
Increase in RM, staff and power costs lead to OPM contractionOPM tumbled 855bps yoy to 16.3%, below our estimate of 22%. Lower
than expected operating performance was on account of:
A) Hike in slag and fly-ash prices translated into higher RM cost, B)Staff cost increased by 62% on the back of commencement of newunits coupled with increase in wages (Rs265/ton against Rs175/ton ayear ago), and C) Increase in power cost owing to jump ininternational coal prices.
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8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211
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ACC (Q4 CY10)
Resul t Updat e 2
Cost Analysis
Q4 CY10 Q4 CY09 bps yoy Q3 CY11 bps qoq
Material costs 13.5 10.8 268 19.6 (611)
Personnel costs 7.1 4.6 249 7.0 16
Power and fuel costs 21.6 19.9 170 21.4 19
Freight cost 14.3 13.5 87 13.4 98
Other overheads 27.2 26.4 80 25.6 160
Total costs 83.7 75.2 855 86.9 (317)
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Tax adjustments arrest fall at PAT levels
Reported PAT for ACC declined by 8% yoy basis to Rs2.6bn. This was despite a 38% drop at PBT levels asprior period tax adjustments led to a tax inflow during the quarter. Recent capacity addition resulted into
depreciation cost being higher by ~6%.
Pressu re on operating marg ins to continue; Maintain SELLACC volumes have fallen ~0.5% yoy in CY10, due to slowdown in cement consumption, delay in
stabilization of new capacities and shortage of railway wagons. However, we project ACC to witness 9%volume growth in CY11, which is higher than expected industry rate of 7% on the back of stability in newplants and volume growth kicking in from acquisitions made in CY09. OPM would continue to remainunder pressure over the next two quarters given the pressure on realization and mounting costoverheads. We maintain SELL and downgrade our target price to Rs818, valuing ACC at 11X CY12 EPS of
Rs74.
Financial summaryY/e 31 Mar (Rs m) CY09 CY10E CY11E CY12E
Revenues 80,272 79,758 90,689 105,686
yoy growth (%) 10.2 (0.6) 13.7 16.5
Operating profit 24,797 18,124 20,896 24,034
OPM (%) 30.9 22.7 23.0 22.7Pre-exceptional PAT 16,068 11,200 12,041 13,979
Reported PAT 16,068 11,200 12,041 13,979
yoy growth (%) 32.5 (30.3) 7.5 16.1
EPS (Rs) 85.5 59.6 64.1 74.4
P/E (x) 11.5 16.5 15.4 13.2
Price/Book (x) 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.4 9.9 8.3 7.0
Debt/Equity (x) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
RoE (%) 30.0 18.4 18.2 18.2
RoCE (%) 38.2 21.7 23.4 23.8Source: Company, India Infoline Research
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8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211
12/17
Ambuja Cements SELL
(Q4 CY10)
February 04, 2011
Sector: Cement
Sensex: 18,449
CMP (Rs): 125
Target price (Rs): 112
Downside (%): 10.4
52 Week h/l (Rs): 167 / 95
Market cap (Rscr) : 19,131
6m Avg vol (000Nos): 2,145
No of o/s shares (mn): 1,530
FV (Rs): 2
Bloomberg code: ACEM IB
Reuters code: ABUJ.BO
BSE code: 500425
NSE code: AMBUJACEM
Closing price as on 3rd Feb, 2011.
Shareholding pattern
June' 10 (% )
Promoters 46.4
Institutions 42.4
Non promoter corp hold 0.9
Public & others 10.3
Performance rel. to sensex
(%) 1m 3m 1yr
Ambuja (2.2) (7.1) 10.5
ACC 2.3 0.8 1.1
Ultratech 2.6 (0.4) (9.8)India Cem. (5.0) (12.2) (33.7)
Share price trend
50
100
150
200
Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Jan-11
Ambuja Cem Sensex
Revenues grew by 2%, below our estimate on account of lowerrealization
Surge in power, freight and other overheads pulls down OPM by580bps yoy
PAT grew 4% to Rs2.5bn aided by lower tax outflow
Retain SELL; Traders at a premium to replacement cost
Result table(Rs m) Q4 CY10 Q4 CY09 % yoy Q3 CY10 % qoq
Net sales 18,274 17,877 2.2 15,830 15.4
Material costs 1,653 2,241 (26.2) 609 171.4
Personnel costs 775 784 (1.1) 989 (21.7)
Power and fuel costs 4,461 3,272 36.3 4,426 0.8
Freight cost 4,080 3,739 9.1 3,425 19.1
Other overheads 3,776 3,349 12.8 3,359 12.4
Operating profit 3,529 4,492 (21.4) 3,022 16.8
OPM (%) 19.3 25.1 (581 bps) 19.1 22 bps
Depreciation (1,086) (860) 26.3 (1,018) 6.7
Interest (209) (55) 277.4 (89) 133.4
Other income 378 395 (4.3) 305 23.9
PBT 2,612 3,972 (34.2) 2,220 17.7
Tax (102) (1,560) (93.5) (699) (85.4)
Effective tax rate (%) 3.9 39.3 31.5
Reported PAT 2,510 2,412 4.1 1,521 65.1
Adj. PAT margin (%) 13.7 13.5 25 bps 9.6 413 bps
Extra ordinary items 65 - - - -
Adjusted PAT 2,575 2,412 6.8 1,521 69.3Ann. EPS (Rs) 6.5 6.3 4.1 4.0 65.1
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Lower realization translate into mere 2% revenue growthACL revenues grew by mere 2% yoy to Rs18.3bn, below ourexpectation of Rs19bn as realization dropped 3.5% yoy. Surprisingly,average realization for the quarter stood flat on a qoq basis despite a5-15% price hike announced by most cement players during thequarter. ACL posted a 5% volume growth on the back ofcommissioning of new units.
OPM contracts as power, freight and other overheads riseOPM for ACL contracted by 585bps yoy to 19.8%, below our estimateof 22.1%. Lower than expected operating performance was on accountof:
A) Increase in diesel prices and transport strike at Himachal Pradesh,translating into higher freight cost, B) Surge in other overheads(Rs823/ton against Rs689/ton a year ago), and C) Increase in powercost due to increase in international coal prices.
Raw material cost (lower clinker purchase) adjusted for inventorydecline by 26.2% yoy thereby arresting further slide at PBIDT level.
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Ambuja Cements (Q4 CY10)
Resul t Updat e 2
Cost Analysis
Q4 CY10 Q4 CY09 bps yoy Q3 CY11 bps qoq
Material costs 9.0 12.5 (349) 3.8 520
Personnel costs 4.2 4.4 (14) 6.2 (201)
Power and fuel costs 24.4 18.3 611 28.0 (355)
Freight cost 22.3 20.9 141 21.6 69
Other overheads 20.7 18.7 193 21.2 (56)
Total costs 80.7 74.9 581 80.9 (22)
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Prior tax adjustments translate into lower tax outgoReported PAT for ACL grew 4% yoy at 2.5bn. This increase in core earnings was due to lower income taxexpenses. Prior tax adjustments led to a lower tax outgo during the quarter as effective tax rate stood at4% as against 39.3% reported in Q4 CY09. Recent capacity addition resulted into depreciation andinterest cost being higher by ~26% and ~277% respectively.
Retain Sell; remains expensive at CY11 EV/ ton of US$128
We lower our OPM assumptions estimates for ACL as we factor in higher international coal pricestranslating into a 10% reduction in CY11E EPS. We project ACL to report earnings CAGR of 7.4% overCY10-12. Despite the recent correction in the stock price, ACL remains expensive at CY11 EV/tonUS$128, 7.7x EV/EBIDTA and 14.5x PE. We retain SELL rating with a revised price target of Rs112.
Financial summaryY/e 31 Mar (Rs m) CY09 CY10E CY11E CY12E
Revenues 72,008 75,176 81,535 87,892
yoy growth (%) 13.8 4.4 8.5 7.8
Operating profit 19,703 19,504 22,741 23,934
OPM (%) 27.4 25.9 27.9 27.2
Pre-exceptional PAT 12,169 12,365 13,271 14,274
Reported PAT 12,169 12,630 13,271 14,274
yoy growth (%) (12.4) 3.8 5.1 7.6
EPS (Rs) 8.0 8.0 8.6 9.3
P/E (x) 15.7 15.6 14.5 13.5
Price/Book (x) 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.3 9.0 7.7 7.2
Debt/Equity (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
RoE (%) 20.1 17.9 17.1 16.4
RoCE (%) 27.1 22.4 23.5 21.9Source: Company, India Infoline Research
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8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211
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Marke t Mant r a
Economy
GDP growth (Quarterly) Inflation
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
Sep-0
5
Mar-06
Sep-0
6
Mar-07
Sep-0
7
Mar-08
Sep-0
8
Mar-09
Sep-0
9
Mar-10
Sep-1
0
(Rs bn)
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0(%)
GDP (LHS) GDP Growth % (RHS)
(2.0)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Dec-0
6
Feb-0
7
Apr-07
Jun-0
7
Aug-0
7
Oct-07
Dec-0
7
Feb-0
8
Apr-08
Jun-0
8
Aug-0
8
Oct-08
Dec-0
8
Feb-0
9
Apr-09
Jun-0
9
Aug-0
9
Oct-09
Dec-0
9
Feb-1
0
Apr-10
Jun-1
0
Aug-1
0
Oct-10
Dec-1
0
(%)
G-Secs yield M3 grow th
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
(%)10 Yr Gsecs 5 Yr Gsecs
1 Yr Gsecs
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
(Rs bn)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0(%)
M3 (LHS) M3 yoy % (RHS)
`
CRR, Repo II P and Six key infra industry grow th
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Feb-0
9
Apr-09
Jun-0
9
Aug-0
9
Oct-09
Dec-0
9
Jan-1
0
Mar-10
May-1
0
Jul-10
Aug-1
0
Oct-10
Dec-1
0
Jan-1
1
(%) CRR Repo
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Dec-0
8
Apr-09
Aug-0
9
Dec-0
9
Apr-10
Aug-1
0
Dec-1
0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0IIP growth Six key infra ind growth (%)
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8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211
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8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211
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Marke t Mant r a
Event Calender
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
February 01 February 02 February 03 February 04 February 05- India Dec
exports yoy%
36.4% vs 26.5%- India Dec
imports yoy%-11.1% vs 11.2%
- US constructionspending mom
-2.5% vs 0.4%
- BOI, NMDC,Glenmark,
Syndicte Bank,
Radico, Gati
- US consumerconfidence
-41 vs -44- US total vehicle
sales12.5mn vs 12.5mn
- Bharti, GlaxoCons, HeroHonda, Jet
Airways,
Wockhardt,Voltas
- US initial joblessclaims
415k vs 454k- US nonfarm
productivity2.6% vs 2.3%
- US factoryorders
0.2% vs 0.7%
- ACC, AmbujaCem, Engineers
India, ICSA
- US change innonfarm payrolls
- USunemployment
rate
- Cipla, Cox &Kings, DivisLabs, Nag Const,
OFSS, Suzlon,
Balrampur Chini,GPIL
- AurobindoPharma, PiramalLife, Bhushan
Steel, Oil India,
Eicher Mot,Mahindra Life
February 07 February 08 February 09 February 10 February 11 February 12- India FY10 GDP
YoY%
- Anant Raj Ind,Bajaj Hind,
Jubilanf Foods,Mundra Port,
Punj Lloyd, LITL,
SCI, Nagarjuna
Fert
- US consumercredit
- Adani Power,Everonn, Pidilite,Power Grid, PTC
- US consumerconfidence
- Britannia, GMRInfra, M&M,Patni, REC,
United Spirits
- US initial joblessclaims
- US wholesaleinventories
- Bombay Dyeing,BGR Energy,Cairn India,
Madras Cem,
RCF
- India Dec IIPdata
- US trade balance
- Aban, AdityaBirla, ApolloTyres, Gammon
India, HPCL, Max
India, Patel Eng
- Adani Ent,Hindalco, IVRCLInfra
February 14 February 15 February 16 February 17 February 18 February 19- India Jan
wholesale price
YoY%
- Simplex Infra,Tata Power
- US empiremanufac
- US businessinventories
- US import price
index mom
- US Jan IIP data- US building
permits mom%
- US housingstarts mom%
- US Producerprice index mom
- Hexaware
- US Initial joblessclaims
- US consumerprice index mom
- US leading
indicators
- Nestle
February 21 February 22 February 23 February 24 February 25 February 26- US consumer
confidence
- Ranbaxy
- US existinghome sales mom
- US durablegoods order
- US house priceindex
- US new homesales mom
- US Q4 GDP data
February 28- US personal
spending
Blue: Economic data, Black: results
-
8/7/2019 Market Mantra 040211
17/17
Recommendation parameters for fundamental reports:
Buy Absolute return of over +10%
Market Performer Absolute return between -10% to +10%
Sell Absolute return below -10%
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