market mantra 100810

8/4/2019 Market Mantra 100810

1/12

M a r k e t M a n t r a

August 10, 2010

Sensex intra-day

18,000

18,100

18,200

18,300

18,400

9:00 10:05 11:10 12:15 13:20 14:25 15:30ADR/GDR

Latest (US$) Price % chg % Prem/Disc

Dr. Reddys 29.3 0.4 0.9

HDFC Bk 161.7 0.1 19.5

ICICI Bk 42.4 2.4 (0.3)

ITC 3.4 0.2 0.0

Infosys 62.4 0.8 0.1

Satyam 4.9 (1.6) 31.2

Ranbaxy 9.9 0.2 1.3

Reliance 43.1 (0.7) 0.1

Wipro 13.9 0.4 47.1

SBI 114.3 (0.2) (0.6)

Tata Motors 20.1 1.0 0.7

Sterlite 15.5 0.3 298.8

L&T 39.6 2.0 0.7

Indian market % change

Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD

Sensex 18,288 0.8 5.5 4.7

Nifty 5,486 0.9 5.6 5.5

BSE 100 2,332 0.9 6.3 7.0

BSE 200 7,370 0.9 6.5 7.7

CNX Midcap 8,654 1.3 9.1 16.4BSE Smallcap 9,720 1.4 8.6 16.3

Developed market % change


Dow Jones 10,699 0.4 (0.8) 2.6

Nasdaq 2,306 0.8 (2.9) 1.6

S&P 500 1,128 0.5 (2.8) 1.1

FTSE 5,411 1.5 0.4 (0.0)

CAC 3,777 1.7 1.5 (4.0)

DAX 6,352 1.5 5.5 6.6

Hang Seng* 21,677 (0.6) 6.1 (0.9)

Nikkei* 9,623 0.5 (8.6) (8.8)

S&P/ASX200* 4,564 (0.7) (0.8) (6.3)* Markets are open

Emerging market % change


Shanghai Comp 2,661 (0.4) (1.4) (18.8)

Brazil Bovespa 67,862 (0.3) 3.7 (1.1)

Mexico Bolsa 32,838 (0.2) 1.7 2.2

Kospi* 1,788 (0.1) 6.6 6.2

Micex 1,419 1.1 10.1 3.6

Taiwan* 8,030 (0.1) 4.8 (1.9)

Straits* 2,996 0.0 6.2 3.4* Markets are open

Institutional activity

(Rs cr) Cash F&O MTD YTD

FIIs 829 674 15,781 51,182

MFs (323) - (4,927) (13,161)

FIIs Prov. 522

MFs Prov. (46)

Commodities % change


Crude (US$/bbl) 81.2 (0.4) 5.7 2.3

Gold (US$/oz) 1,200 (0.1) (0.3) 9.4

Copper (US$/mt) 7,399 0.7 7.1 0.8

Aluminium (US$/mt) 2,173 (0.4) 6.5 (1.1)

Zinc (US$/mt) 2,120 0.9 2.8 (16.2)

Advance/Decline stocks

(Nos) A B S Total

Adv 168 1,228 301 1,958

Dec 35 637 134 1,002

Unch 1 73 11 112

A/D ratio (x)* 4.8 1.9 2.2 2.0*A/D excluding Unch

Trade value

(Rs cr) % chg

Cash NSE 12,787 0.4

Cash BSE 4,456 0.7

Total Cash 17,244 0.5

Delivery (%) 43.4 -

Derivatives 59,054 (2.3)

Currency % change


Rs/US$ 46.13 (0.1) (2.8) 0.9

Rs/EUR 60.28 (1.2) (4.8) 10.5

US$/GBP 1.58 (0.4) 6.6 (2.1)

US$/EUR 1.32 (0.3) 3.1 (8.0)

Yen/US$ 85.88 (0.1) 8.6 8.3

Bond market

Last Close (%) Bps chg

10yr Gsec 7.82 (0.01)

Call rate 5.50 0.72

Eyes set on Fed meet

Caut i on i s the e ldes t ch i l d o f w i sdom. -

V i cto r Hugo .

The opening is likely to be cautious given the softAsian markets. Stocks in the US managedmodest gains while those in Europe didexceedingly well. A few key earnings are duetoday but the same may not have a market-wideimpact.

Euro-zone seems to have weathered thesovereign debt storm well but concerns aremounting over the state of the US economy. So,naturally all eyes are on todays FOMC meet.Speculation is rife that Bernanke & Co. may

unleash another round of quantitative easing.Whether Fed policymakers oblige the markets ornot only time will tell. Though the markets maywelcome such a move, it will only confirm thatthe US has hit a soft patch. And, that will not begood news.

We will also get an update on the Chineseeconomy later this week when a slew ofeconomic reports are issued. Q2 GDP data oneuro-zone is also due this week. Back home, thelatest IIP data will be out on Thursday andmonthly inflation figures on Monday.


2/12

News

Ma r ke t Ma n t r a

Corporate snippets

BHEL has bagged a contract worth Rs25.3bnfrom Abhijeet Infra Ltd for setting up a1,080MW thermal power plant in Jharkhand.

(BL)

Glenmark has entered into a settlementagreement with US-based Sepracor on apatent litigation suit related to the genericversions of insomnia drug eszopiclone. (BS)

Areva T&D has bagged a contract worthRs1.1bn from Power Grid Corporation of IndiaLtd to set up a 765 KV extra high voltagesubstation. (ET)

Bajaj gears up to launch high-end Pulsarsnext year. (BS)

Britannia Industries Ltd will invest aroundRs800mn in expanding bakery capacity atexisting facilities and setting up a new unitthis fiscal. (BL)

SAIL has commissioned its Rs0.4bn unit at itsSalem steel plant. (ET)

Orchid Chemicals has received US healthregulator's approval to sell anti-epilepticlevetiracetam tablets in the Americanmarket. (ET)

Lupin has sued Ranbaxy Laboratories,which is now controlled by Japanese drugmajor Daiichi Sankyo, in a US court. (BS)

SBI rights issue for Rs200bn likely in fiscalquarter ending March, 2011. (ET)

GMR Airports Holding Ltd plans to raisearound US$100mn to buy out the holdings ofits parent, GMR Infrastructure, in theairports business. (BS)

The first 600MW unit of Sterlite Energys4X600MW power plant, with IndependentPower Producer (IPP) status, at Jharsuguda inOrissa is slated to go on stream next week.(BS)

Mumbai and JNPT port terminals are likely tobe shut for traffic for at least a week, ascontainers fell off a ship after it collided withanother vessel on Saturday, blocking theports' main channel.

Macquarie SBI Investments Pte Ltd and StateBank of India have agreed to invest Rs1.25bnto pick up 19% equity stake in a proposed

540MW thermal power project in Jamshedpur,Jharkhand promoted by Adhunik Power andNatural Resources Ltd, a subsidiary ofAdhunik Metaliks Ltd. (BL)

GMR Infra has received unsoliciated offersfrom international investors for buying its50% stake in overseas power firm InterGen.(ET)

UCO Bank has raised its benchmark primelending Rate by 25bps to 12.5%. (ET)

Economy snippets

The Union Ministry of Home Affairs has askedthe DoT to direct service providers to stop theoperation of all 3G mobile services across thecountry, particularly in Jammu & Kashmir,till the infrastructure to enable full tapping oflines is put in place. (BS)

The government diluted the guidelines onpublic shareholding by lowering the minimumpublic float requirement for state-ownedenterprises to 10% against 25% prescribedearlier. (BS)

RBI has told the government to empower acommittee under the proposed FinancialStability and Development Council to handleall inter-regulatory issues and financialstability, to replace the High-LevelCoordination Committee on Capital andFinancial Markets, a forum for discussing and

coordinating policy moves amongregulators. (ET)

The government has cleared 12 proposals forFDI worth over Rs23bn. (ET)

Services exports dip 8% to US$93.7bn inFY10. (ET)

Results TableCompanies Sales % yoy PAT % yoy

Britannia Ind 9,128 24.8 328 (30.7)

Opto circuit 1,275 29.9 570 100.0

Tulip Telecom 5,252 18.6 642 (14.5)Jain Irrigation 7,206 27.1 523 (5.9)

B L Kashyap 2,993 40.8 103 29.7


3/12


4/12


Technicals

Pivot table

CompanyCMP(Rs) Supp 1 Supp 2 Pivot Res 1 Res 2

ABB 801 792 780 804 812 821

ACC 845 830 822 838 853 867

AmbujaCem 120 115 113 118 122 127

BHEL 2,530 2,506 2,487 2,524 2,549 2,573

BPCL 647 643 635 650 654 659

Bharti 328 321 317 325 333 340

Cairn 339 337 332 341 343 346

Cipla 320 317 313 321 324 326

DLF 321 310 304 316 326 337

Gail 438 434 431 437 441 445

Grasim 1,904 1,876 1,854 1,898 1,926 1,954

HCL Tech 416 409 405 414 421 428

HDFC Bank 2,082 2,068 2,049 2,086 2,100 2,115

Hero Honda 1,866 1,839 1,821 1,857 1,884 1,911

Hindalco 167 165 163 166 168 171

HUL 256 254 252 256 258 260

HDFC 3,116 3,078 3,056 3,099 3,137 3,175

ICICI Bank 980 959 947 970 992 1,013Idea 71 70 69 72 73 74

Infosys 2,875 2,833 2,808 2,858 2,900 2,941

ITC 159 158 157 159 160 161

L&T 1,813 1,801 1,793 1,809 1,821 1,833

M&M 649 621 592 651 678 706

Maruti 1,232 1,221 1,214 1,227 1,239 1,250

Nalco 426 420 417 424 429 435

NTPC 200 198 197 199 200 202

ONGC 1,233 1,216 1,191 1,240 1,257 1,274

Powergrid 102 101 100 102 103 104

PNB 1,111 1,098 1,088 1,109 1,122 1,135

Ranbaxy 449 447 444 450 452 454

Rcom 177 174 172 176 179 183

Reliance 994 988 980 997 1,002 1,008RelianceInfra 1,117 1,109 1,102 1,117 1,125 1,133

ReiancePower 159 157 156 159 160 161

Satyam 86 86 85 87 87 88

Siemens 701 696 690 703 707 712

SBI 2,651 2,626 2,612 2,641 2,665 2,690

SAIL 198 196 195 198 200 202

Sterlite 180 177 176 179 181 183

Sunpharma 1,767 1,757 1,742 1,773 1,783 1,793

Suzlon 57 56 55 57 57 58

Tata Com. 294 280 272 288 302 316

TCS 880 856 842 870 894 917

Tata Motors 919 902 893 912 929 946

Tata Power 1,326 1,322 1,319 1,326 1,330 1,333Tata Steel 540 534 529 538 544 551

Unitech 91 87 85 89 93 97

Wipro 437 430 426 434 441 447

Zee 317 309 305 314 321 329

A pivot is a level at which the market direction changes for the day.These points can be critical support and resistance levels for that day.

Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view onthe stock or index.

Top moversCompany Price (Rs) Price % chg % YTD chg

Rain Commodities 163.7 19.3 (27.1)

Raymond Ltd 283.0 17.1 44.4

Bl Kashyap&Sons 386.8 15.5 (15.6)

Gitanjali Gems L 223.6 14.4 79.1

Himachal Futuris 11.1 10.4 0.0

Top losersCompany Price (Rs) Price % chg % YTD chg

Britannia Inds 2,150.5 (5.8) 28.0

Kei Indus Ltd 32.0 (3.6) (0.3)

Paramount Comm 10.5 (2.8) (31.4)

Agc Networks Ltd 262.6 (2.5) 38.9

Gateway Distripa 102.9 (2.5) (24.9)

Volume ToppersCompany Price (Rs) Price % chg Vol % chg

Bl Kashyap&Sons 386.8 15.5 5,231.7

Ht Media Ltd 170.2 3.3 2,384.4

Vardhman Textile 314.1 2.0 1,266.6Sundaram Clayton 202.1 0.9 791.4

Asian Star Co 1,172.4 5.3 644.4

Sector watchPrice % chg

BSE Indices Last close 1 day 1 week 1 mth50

DMA

BSE Bankex 11,944 1.3 8.0 9.4 10,908

BSE Realty 3,603 4.5 10.4 7.4 3,284

BSE HC 5,592 (0.0) (2.7) 5.5 5,484

BSE Metals 15,706 1.5 5.9 (7.2) 15,996

BSE Oil & Gas 10,075 (0.4) (5.2) (0.5) 10,203

BSE Auto 8,631 1.1 3.1 11.2 7,922

BSE IT 5,672 0.6 3.6 7.5 5,346BSE Power 3,147 0.7 0.6 2.0 3,097

BSE FMCG 3,294 0.3 2.7 15.6 3,015

BSE PSU 9,647 0.8 1.9 6.6 9,176

BSE Cap Goods 14,772 0.6 0.8 9.2 14,191

BSE CD 5,595 2.4 12.2 21.6 4,678

BSE 200 2,332 0.9 2.8 6.3 2,214

BSE 500 7,370 0.9 2.9 6.5 6,985

BSE Mid Cap 7,622 1.2 4.2 8.9 7,056

BSE Small Cap 9,720 1.4 4.9 8.6 8,955

CNX 500 4,580 0.9 2.6 6.5 4,343

Note :

Ideas given under the Technicals section are for intraday purpose orup to a period of three trading sessions. Stocks recommended under

this heading are not necessarily part of our fundamental buy or selllist.


5/12


Deals

Bulk dealsDate Scrip name Client name B/S Qty ('000) Avg price (Rs) Deal size (Rs m)

9/8/2010 Balaji Dist Idfc Mutual Fund B 2,516 48 120.5

9/8/2010 Balaji Dist Idfc Arbitrage Plus Fund S 2,516 48 120.5

9/8/2010 Gitanjali Gems Limited Fidelity Mgmt & Resarch Co A/C B 1,179 209 246.1

9/8/2010 TV 18 India Limited Morgan Stanley Investment B 2,617 78 204.1

9/8/2010 TV 18 India Limited Morgan Stanley Mutual Fund A/C B 1,684 78 131.49/8/2010 TV 18 India Limited T Rowe Price New Asia Fund S 4,186 78 326.2

Insider trades

Company name AcquirerTransactiondate

B/SQty

('000)Avg price

(Rs)Deal size

('000)Shares

transactions (%)Holding after

transaction (%)

Hdfc D M Sukthankar 20/07/2010 S 0.3 3,014 0.9 - 0.0

Kotak Mahindra Bank Angel Victor 9/7/2010 B 3.0 763 2.3 - -

Lupin Ltd Gurij Pal Singh 20/07/2010 B 2.0 1,872 3.7 - -

*Closing price on the transaction day is assumed to be average price of the deal


6/12

Derivatives


Nifty volatility Index fell to 17.00 from17.37, declined by 2.13% .

Total Nifty futures added 1.28mn shares inopen interest.

Call open interest for Aug series added

0.19mn shares in Open Interest. Put open interest for Aug series added

1.50mn shares in Open Interest. Nifty put call ratio of open interest now

stands at 1.39 vs 1.37. Nifty put call ratio of volume now stands at

1.16 vs 1.04. Maximum open interest in calls for Aug series

is at 5,600 strike price.

Maximum open interest in Puts for Aug seriesis at 5,300 strike prices.

Nifty Aug 5,400 Call shed 0.16mn shares in

open interest. Nifty Aug 5,400 Put added 0.68mn shares inopen interest.

Strategies

Long SAIL Aug Future in range of Rs199-201 for the target price of Rs209 with a stoploss placed at Rs194.Lot size: 1000Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs10,000and net maximum loss of Rs5,000.

Long India Cement Aug Future in range ofRs110-111 for the target price of Rs120 andstop loss placed at Rs105.

Lot size: 2000Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs20,000and net maximum loss of Rs10,000.

Nifty open interest chart

0

150

300

450

600

750

900

13-May-10 9-Jun-10 6-Jul-10 2-Aug-10

OI & Vol (lacs)

2,600

3,400

4,200

5,000

Nifty

Nifty snapshotCurrent Previous % Chg

Near month price 5,482 5,442 0.7

Near month Pre/Disc (4.1) 3.2 (229.7)

Mid month price 5,487 5,447 0.7

Mid month Pre/Disc 1.3 7.4 (83.0)

OI* (000) 34,539 33,255 3.9Volume (000) 11,962 12,654 (5.5)

PCR (OI) 1.4 1.4 1.2

PCR (Vol) 1.2 1.0 11.5

Roll-over (%) 7.2 6.9 3.9

FII derivative data(Rs cr) Buy Sell Net Contracts OI % chg

Index Futures 854 644 210 17,987 3

Index Option 3,037 2,603 434 12,124 1

Stock Futures 1,033 926 107 16,120 1

Stock Options 203 281 (78) 2,962 8

Institutional activity(Rs cr) Cash F&O MTD YTD

FII's 829.1 674 15,781 51,182

MF's (322.8) - (4,927) (13,161)

FIIs Prov. 522.1

MFs Prov. (45.5)

Overall market9-Aug-

106-Aug-

105-Aug-

10Value %

chg

Index Future (Rs cr) 7,944 8,317 8,402 (4.5)

Stock Future (Rs cr) 14,096 14,822 14,466 (4.9)

Index Options (Rs cr) 32,863 33,467 39,740 (1.8)

Stock Options (Rs cr) 4,150 3,850 2,972 7.8

Index Future (Cont '000) 310 325 326 (4.6)

Stock Future (Cont '000) 465 489 482 (5.0)

Index Options (Cont '000) 1,207 1,225 1,460 (1.4)Stock Options (Cont '000) 123 120 93 2.5

PCR (OI) 1.2 1.0 1.2 11.7

PCR (VOI) 0.3 0.3 0.3 (1.6)

Nifty strikes open interest

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

5200 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800

OI in ('000) Call Put

Sector-wise OI

-3

0

3

6

Automobiles

Banking

Capital

goods&

Infra

Cement

Fertilizers

FMCG IT

RealEstate

Media

Metals

Oil&

Gas

Pharma

Power

Logistics

Sugar

Textile

Telecom

Others

TotalStock

Future

% Chg


7/12


Derivatives

Futures open interest gainers Scrip OI ('000) % change CMP (Rs) % change Volume ('000) % change Prem/Disc (Rs)

Ptc 3,012.0 31.2 120.0 3.2 2,496.0 336.4 (0.8)

Pateleng 707.5 25.9 423.6 0.9 341.0 306.0 (2.9)

Ucobank 12,000.0 14.2 98.5 2.3 8,120.0 76.5 (0.7)

Iob 4,860.0 14.0 130.5 4.7 7,200.0 63.6 (0.4)

Tatamotors 11,888.0 13.8 907.9 3.0 12,818.0 (31.1) 11.5Chamblfert 8,636.0 13.5 69.5 2.1 7,264.0 65.7 (0.5)

Sci 1,598.0 13.0 170.7 0.8 1,248.0 (59.1) (1.2)

Acc 2,570.0 11.7 841.4 2.8 807.5 92.1 3.3

Albk 3,856.0 9.5 205.4 2.8 2,222.0 (0.7) 0.4

Educomp 3,381.5 8.7 653.9 7.3 5,681.0 437.5 1.2

Ambujacem 17,888.0 8.2 118.4 4.7 4,732.0 148.0 1.4

Futures open interest losersScrip OI ('000) % change CMP (Rs) % change Volume ('000) % change Prem/Disc (Rs)

Ifci 95,368.0 (6.2) 60.0 1.4 25,004.0 (80.2) (0.3)

Suntv 249.0 (6.6) 473.8 1.5 121.0 (77.4) (2.4)

Yesbank 6,594.0 (6.1) 305.3 2.7 2,573.0 1.3 (0.3)

Dishtv 14,816.0 (5.7) 50.1 0.1 8,712.0 (70.9) (0.1)

Indiacem 12,604.0 (4.4) 109.9 3.7 3,350.0 166.7 (0.8)Hcc 21,896.0 (3.6) 143.7 103.9 5,980.0 76.1 (0.5)

Sail 6,573.0 (3.2) 199.3 1.0 2,549.0 7.5 (0.8)

Polaris 3,992.0 (3.0) 183.8 2.9 1,994.0 (7.3) (0.5)

Hindzinc 340.8 (2.9) 1,117.1 1.9 171.0 7.4 (0.5)

Cumminsind 354.0 (2.7) 641.9 0.4 112.0 (4.7) (3.6)

Drreddy 1,511.5 (2.7) 1,344.8 (0.1) 239.8 (28.8) (6.7)

Most active stock calls Scrip Strike OI ('000)

%change CMP(Rs)

Volume('000)

Unitech 90 5,780.0 16.5 3.2 8,671.0

Tatamotors 900 1,235.0 32.5 32.3 5,337.0

Tatamotors 920 1,205.0 303.0 24.0 5,013.0

Reliance 1020 1,951.8 18.3 12.9 4,137.0

Dlf 320 1,095.0 (14.1) 10.4 3,205.0

Unitech 95 2,580.0 97.9 1.3 2,630.0

Reliance 1000 1,015.0 42.9 21.5 3,773.0

Unitech 85 2,728.0 (21.8) 6.6 2,340.0

Tatamotors 940 297.5 95.7 15.5 1,755.0

Sbin 2750 173.9 50.1 14.0 1,874.0

Most active stock puts Scrip Strike OI ('000)

%change CMP(Rs)

Volume('000)

Tatamotors 880 805.5 471.3 16.6 1,958.0

Tatamotors 860 693.0 168.6 10.9 1,867.0

Sbin 2600 207.5 67.7 41.1 1,967.0

Unitech 85 4,432.0 91.4 1.2 1,864.0

Tatamotors 900 239.5 648.4 25.0 876.0

Unitech 90 2,296.0 382.4 2.8 906.0

Tatamotors 840 425.0 24.3 6.0 678.0

Unitech 80 6,020.0 26.2 0.6 867.0

Reliance 1000 692.5 (0.6) 21.0 959.0

Sbin 2500 295.4 9.1 13.5 730.0

Most active Nifty calls Strike OI ('000) % change CMP(Rs) Volume('000)

5500 7,679.8 2.1 54.3 9,418.6

5400 4,673.4 (3.4) 115.6 5,097.8

5600 8,547.6 (0.8) 17.9 4,663.2

5700 4,271.4 6.3 4.7 2,149.5

5800 1,492.4 13.8 1.8 1,365.7

5500 1,846.8 12.5 116.0 624.9

5300 1,714.7 (2.9) 196.0 605.2

5900 461.4 (15.1) 0.7 548.9

5600 1,933.8 3.6 68.7 526.6

5700 2,038.8 4.1 36.5 497.1

Most active Nifty puts Strike OI ('000) % change CMP(Rs) Volume('000)

5400 8813.6 8.5 41.9 8724.3

5300 9768.6 (2.0) 21.9 5635.8

5500 3875.0 17.4 77.5 4141.4

5200 6740.0 0.4 11.9 3300.8

5100 6928.4 9.1 6.1 2996.5

5000 5909.1 0.6 3.5 1238.2

5400 1499.9 10.0 96.9 630.5

5000 1875.1 18.0 24.0 644.0

4900 2874.7 1.7 2.3 542.4

5200 1689.8 6.6 49.0 477.9

Note:

Ideas given under the Derivatives section are positional trades for the stated F&O expiry. Stocks recommended under this heading are notnecessarily part of our fundamental buy or sell list.


8/12

Mutual Funds


Fund focus

ICICI Prudential Dynamic Fund Invest

Fund manager S Naren Min investment Rs5,000

Latest NAV Rs103.0 Entry load Nil

NAV 52 high/low Rs103/74 Exit load 1%


9/12


Economy

Quarterly GDP growth Inflation

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

Mar-05

Sep-0

5

Mar-06

Sep-0

6

Mar-07

Sep-0

7

Mar-08

Sep-0

8

Mar-09

Sep-0

9

Mar-10

(Rs bn)

5.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0(%)

GDP (LHS) GDP Growth % (RHS)

(3.0)

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

15.0

Jun-07

Aug-07

Oct-07

Dec-07

Feb-08

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-10

Apr-10

Jun-10

(%)

G-Secs yield M3 grow th

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Mar-09

May-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Feb-10

Apr-10

Jun-10

Aug-10

(%)10 Yr Gsecs 5 Yr Gsecs

1 Yr Gsecs

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

May-10

Jul-10

(Rs bn)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0(%)

M3 (LHS) M3 yoy % (RHS)

`

CRR, Repo II P and Six key infra industry growth

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Aug-0

8

Oct-08

Dec-0

8

Jan-0

9

Mar-09

May-0

9

Jul-09

Sep-0

9

Nov-0

9

Dec-0

9

Feb-1

0

Apr-10

Jun-1

0

Aug-1

0

(%) CRR Repo Reverse Repo

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jun-0

8

Oct-08

Feb-0

9

Jun-0

9

Oct-09

Feb-1

0

Jun-1

0

(2.0)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.016.0

18.0

20.0IIP growth Six key infra ind growth (%)


10/12


Economy

Trade deficit Current account deficit

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Mar-05

Sep-0

5

Mar-06

Sep-0

6

Mar-07

Sep-0

7

Mar-08

Sep-0

8

Mar-09

Sep-0

9

Mar-10

(US$ bn)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

Mar-05

Sep-05

Mar-06

Sep-06

Mar-07

Sep-07

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09

Sep-09

Mar-10

(US$ bn)

FDI RBI forex reserves

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Sep-0

8

Nov-0

8

Jan-0

9

Mar-09

May-0

9

Jul-09

Sep-0

9

Nov-0

9

Jan-1

0

Mar-10

May-1

0

(US$ mn)

150

200

250

300

350

Aug-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jul-09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

Jun-10

(US$ bn)

Fiscal deficit Currency movement

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

Jun-0

8

Aug-0

8

Oct-08

Dec-0

8

Feb-0

9

Apr-09

Jun-0

9

Aug-0

9

Oct-09

Dec-0

9

Feb-1

0

Apr-10

Jun-1

0

(Rs bn)

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Jun-0

8

Ju

l-08

Sep-0

8

Nov-0

8

Jan-0

9

Mar-

09

May-0

9

Ju

l-09

Aug-0

9

Oc

t-09

Dec-0

9

Fe

b-1

0

Mar-

10

May-1

0

Ju

l-10

INR/USD INR/EURO

INR/GBP INR/100 Yen


11/12


Event Calendar

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug 07- India exports

yoy%30.4% vs 35.1%- India imports

yoy%23% vs 38.5%

- Gail, GlaxoCons, IndiaCem, MadrasCem, Nestle,NMDC

- US factoryorders

-1.2% vs -1.4%

- Hindalco,Plethico Pharma,Punj Lloyd,Shiv-Vani Oil

- US total vehiclesales

11.56mn vs 11mn- Challenger job

cuts yoy-57.2% vs -47.1%

- Adani Power,Bombay Rayon,GIPCO, IDFC,Mundra Port

- US initial joblessclaims

479k vs 457k

- Anant Raj Ind,AurobindoPharma

- US change innon-farmpayrolls -131Kvs -125K

- Unemploymentrate 9.5% vs9.5%

- Gammon Infra,ICSA, Nalco,Petron Eng,Power Grid

- US consumercredit

-$1.3bn vs -$9.1bn

- GMR Infra, KSKEnergy

Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14

- Britannia, OptoCircuits, RelCapital, JainIrrigation

- US nonfarmproductivity

- Wholesaleinventories

- IVRCL Infra,Nag. Const,Amtek Auto,Rolta, Educomp,Jai Corp, RCF,Tata Motors,Piramal Health,Great Off

- US Tradebalance

- Bharti Airtel,Bajaj Hind,FinTech,Parsvnath,Videocon Ind

- India IIP Junedata

- US import priceindex mom

- Initial joblessclaims

- IGL, Ranbaxy,Tata Power,Divis Lab, AnsalProp, ApolloHosp, PTC, TataSteel, HindustanOil, MTNL,Moserbaer, SBI,Cummins India,Renuka Sugars

- US consumerprice index

- Businessinventories

- Adani Ent,DCHL, GammonIndia, RCom,Suzlon, PatelEngr, Cipla,Wockhardt

- Lanco Infra,Shree Cem,Simplex Infra

Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug 21- India July

monthlyinflation

- US empiremanufac

- Housing startsmom%

- Building permitsmom%

- US July IIP

- ABC consumerconfidence

-

- Leadingindicators

Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug 28- Existing home

sales mom- Durable goods

order- House price

index mom

- US initial joblessclaims

- US GDP qoq

Aug 30 Aug 31- US personal

income- US consumer

confidence

Orange: AGM/dividend (D), Black: Results, Blue: Economic data


12/12

Recommendation parameters for fundamental reports:

Buy Absolute return of over +10%

Market Performer Absolute return between -10% to +10%

Sell Absolute return below -10%

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