market overview of the modernisation of asian...
TRANSCRIPT
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Global Military Naval Vessels and Support in Service
Market Overview of the Modernisation of Asian Navies
Amartya De, Senior Consultant
Aerospace & Defense Practice, Asia Pacific
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Market Overview - Key Questions
What is the potential for military naval vessels and SIS market despite budget constraints witnessed globally?
Which segments have the highest growth potential and why?
Which are the countries providing the highest growth opportunities to the market and what will be the future scope in these countries?
Source: Frost & Sullivan
3
Executive Summary
Market Revenue
$32.00 B
(2013)
Market Size at End of Forecast Period
$39.99 B
(2022)
Global Military Naval Vessels Market
Compound Annual Growth Rate
2.5%
(2013–2022)
Stable IncreasingDecreasingSource: Frost & Sullivan
Market Revenue
$15.29 B
(2013)
Market Size at End of Forecast Period
$21.24 B
(2022)
Compound Annual Growth Rate
3.7%
(2013–2022)
Global Support in Service Market
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Market Overview - Segmentation
Global Military Naval Vessels and SIS MarketMarket
Regions Africa APACLatin
AmericaEurope
Middle East
North America
Platforms
Light Aircraft CarriersSupercarriers
Cruisers
Training
Services
Line Maintenance
Destroyers CorvettesFrigates
Amphibious Vessels
Ballistic Missile Submarines (SSBN)
Nuclear-powered Attack Submarines (SSN)
Conventional Submarines (SSK)
Central Asia
Mine Warfare Patrol and Costal VesselsLogistics and Support
Vessels
Heavy Maintenance
Spare Parts
Modernisation
Source: Frost & Sullivan
5
Market Overview - Segmentation by Platform Role and SIS Activity
Amphibious Vessel3.1%
Corvette4.5%
Destroyer11.5%
Frigate19.1%
Light Aircraft Carrier3.7%
Logistics and Support Vessel
3.5%Mine Warfare2.3%
Patrol and CoastalVessel3.2%
Nuclear-Powered
Ballistic MissileSubmarine
(SSBN)10.9%
ConventionalSubmarine
(SSK)9.8%
Nuclear-Powered
AttackSubmarine
(SSN)17.5%
Super Carrier10.9%
Forecast for Global Military Naval Vessels Market: 2022
Line Maintenance
4.6%
Heavy Maintenance
33.2%
Spare Parts23.6%
Modernisation31.6%
Training7.0%
Forecast for Global Military SIS Market: 2022
Key Takeaway: The market shares of frigate, nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), and heavy maintenance segments will see the highest growth by 2022.
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Drivers and Restraints
Total Military Naval Vessels and SIS Market: Key Market Drivers and Restraints, Global, 2014–2022
Demand for local partnerships and technology transfer to provide new military vessels and SIS of complex naval platforms make market penetration difficult.
Emerging regional participants particularly in APAC are increasing competition on the military naval vessels and SIS market.
Defence budget cuts cause significant pressure on procurement of naval vessels and related SIS programmes.
1–2 Years 3–5 Years 6–9 Years
Implementation of extensive re-armament programs in APAC and the Middle East countries results in increase in demand for modern military vessels.
The growing market of second-hand defence platforms offers an opportunity to naval platform suppliers.
Increasing number of piracy and terrorism acts
boosts demand for patrol and coastal vessels and
private convoys services.
Mark
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Impact: High Medium Low Source: Frost & Sullivan
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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Asia-Pacific 7.37 8.60 8.78 10.71 9.73 10.60 9.43 9.76 9.14 9.32
Central Asia 4.36 4.44 4.52 5.26 5.38 5.51 5.65 5.88 6.03 6.18
Latin America 1.28 1.30 1.32 1.36 1.38 1.40 1.86 1.91 1.93 1.52
The Middle East 0.80 0.81 0.83 0.88 0.90 0.92 0.94 0.99 1.01 1.03
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Military Naval Vessels Market: 2013–2022
Military Naval Vessels Market - Revenue Forecast by Region
Key Takeaway: The high jump of revenue in APAC after 2015 will be due to expected introduction of light aircraft carriers into service by China and India.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Fastest growing regions
2nd biggest region after North America
Fastest growth in Central Asia expected from Russian Navy
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Military Naval Vessels Market - Revenue Forecast by Vertical Market
Key Takeaway: The frigate segment will generate the highest cumulative revenue during the forecast Key Takeaway: The frigate segment will generate the highest cumulative revenue during the forecast period.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Destroyer 3.93 3.98 4.02 4.22 4.27 5.11 5.17 5.27 4.54 4.61
Frigate 5.83 5.97 6.11 6.42 6.59 6.76 6.95 7.22 7.43 7.64
SSN 5.80 5.91 6.02 6.25 6.36 6.48 7.04 7.19 7.32 7.01
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Global Military Naval Vessels Market: Forecast by Vertical Market, 2013–2022
Source: Frost & Sullivan
TOP 3 Segments
Frigate ($US 66.9 billion)
Nuclear Submarine SSN($US 65.4 billion)
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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Asia-Pacific 2.70 2.84 2.85 3.12 3.13 3.15 3.16 3.84 3.86 3.88
Central Asia 1.15 1.19 1.20 1.44 1.46 1.48 1.51 1.54 1.57 1.59
The Middle East 0.19 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.26 0.27 0.27
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Global SIS Market: Revenue Forecast by Region, 2013–2022
SIS Market—Percent Revenue Forecast by Region
Key Takeaway: APAC is a prominent region for SIS standing at 3rd place globally after NA and EU.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Asia Pacific ($US 32.5 billion expenditure in SIS)
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SIS Market - Revenue Forecast by Vertical Market
Key Takeaway: The heavy maintenance segment will generate the highest revenue during the forecast period.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Line Maintenance 0.84 0.85 0.86 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.97 0.98 0.99
Heavy Maintenance 4.20 4.23 4.26 6.13 6.18 6.24 6.29 6.91 6.97 7.04
Spare Parts 4.40 4.44 4.47 4.58 4.62 4.66 4.71 4.91 4.96 5.01
Modernisation 4.88 5.10 5.14 5.22 5.27 5.32 5.38 6.57 6.64 6.71
Training 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.30 1.32 1.33 1.34 1.46 1.48 1.49
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SIS Market: Percent Revenue Forecast by Vertical Market, Global, 2013–2022
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2013. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Heavy Maintenance
Spare Parts
Mordernisation
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Competitive Analysis
Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, Northrop Grunmann, General Dynamics Marine Systems,
DCNS, BAE Systems, CMN,
TKMS, Lürssen, Navantia, Damen Shipyards Group, Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering, Hyundai Heavy Industries,
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, CSOI, CSSC, CSIC, Mazagon Docks Limited, Hindustan Shipyard
Limited, United Shipbuilding Corporation, Sevmash, Admiralty Shipyard, Baltiysky Zavod, Severnaya Verf, Baltic
Shipyard,Parokhodniy Shipyard, Sredne-Nevskiy Shipyard, Abu Dhabi Ship Building
Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, Northrop Grunmann, General Dynamics Marine Systems,
DCNS, BAE Systems, CMN,
TKMS, Lürssen, Navantia, Damen Shipyards Group, Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering, Hyundai Heavy Industries,
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, CSOI, CSSC, CSIC, Mazagon Docks Limited, Hindustan Shipyard
Limited, United Shipbuilding Corporation, Sevmash, Admiralty Shipyard, Baltiysky Zavod, Severnaya Verf, Baltic
Shipyard,Parokhodniy Shipyard, Sredne-Nevskiy Shipyard, Abu Dhabi Ship Building
Local suppliersLocal suppliers
Rockwell Collins, Hispano-Suiza, Rolls Royce, CAE, Safran, SMA Engine Snecma, VIJA, Raytheon, Selex,
Kongsberg, ST Engineering, Saab,
Elbit Systems, Indra, Rubin Design Bureau, NPO Mashinostroyeniya, Samsung Heavy Industries, BMZ, KTZ and Zvezda, MAN
Diesel & Turbo SE (a subgroup of MAN SE), Wärtsilä,
MAK, Caterpillar, Deutz, MTU, Saab AB, QinetiQ, Thales, MBDA, Boeing, ATLAS ELEKTRONIK, BMT Defence Services,
Thales
Rockwell Collins, Hispano-Suiza, Rolls Royce, CAE, Safran, SMA Engine Snecma, VIJA, Raytheon, Selex,
Kongsberg, ST Engineering, Saab,
Elbit Systems, Indra, Rubin Design Bureau, NPO Mashinostroyeniya, Samsung Heavy Industries, BMZ, KTZ and Zvezda, MAN
Diesel & Turbo SE (a subgroup of MAN SE), Wärtsilä,
MAK, Caterpillar, Deutz, MTU, Saab AB, QinetiQ, Thales, MBDA, Boeing, ATLAS ELEKTRONIK, BMT Defence Services,
Thales
Total Military Naval Vessels and SIS Market: Competitive Landscape and Key Participants
Tier I
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Tier II
Tier III
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APAC Breakdown
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APAC Military Naval Vessels Market - Revenue Forecast by Vertical Market
vessels. The frigate and conventional submarine (SSK) have maximum interest in APAC.Key Takeaway: Military vessels fleet modernisation will drive APAC’s expenditure on military naval
vessels. The frigate and conventional submarine (SSK) have maximum interest in APAC.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Destroyer 1.41 1.42 1.43 1.55 1.57 2.37 2.39 2.44 1.67 1.69
Frigate 1.76 1.78 1.80 1.94 1.96 1.99 2.02 2.08 2.11 2.15
SSK 1.56 1.60 1.69 1.84 1.88 1.86 1.91 1.99 2.04 2.09
SSBN 0.42 0.44 0.45 0.51 0.53 0.55 0.57 0.60 0.63 0.65
SSN 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.38
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Military Naval Vessels Market: Revenue Forecast by Vertical Market, APAC, 2013–2022
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Frigate
SSK (Conventional submarine)
Destroyer
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APAC SIS Market—Revenue Forecast by Vertical Market
complexity of newly procured vessels and extensive modernisation Key Takeaway: The complexity of newly procured vessels and extensive modernisation programmes will result in high growth of the SIS market in APAC.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Line Maintenance 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.18 0.18 0.18
Heavy Maintenance 0.86 0.86 0.86 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.21 1.55 1.56 1.57
Spare Parts 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.80 0.80 0.81 0.81 0.95 0.95 0.96
Modernisation 0.75 0.88 0.88 0.77 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.91 0.91 0.92
Training 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.25 0.26 0.26
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SIS Market: Revenue Forecast by Vertical Market, APAC, 2013–2022
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2013. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Spare Parts
Heavy Maintenance
Mordernisation
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APAC Military Naval Vessels and SIS Market—Competitive Analysis
DCNS, DSME, HHI, Samsung Heavy Industries, BAE Systems, ST Engineering,Austal, ASC, Mazagon Docks Limited, Hindustan Shipyard Limited,
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, CSOI, CSSC, CSIC
DCNS, DSME, HHI, Samsung Heavy Industries, BAE Systems, ST Engineering,Austal, ASC, Mazagon Docks Limited, Hindustan Shipyard Limited,
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, CSOI, CSSC, CSIC
Local suppliersLocal suppliers
Boustead Naval Shipyards, Unithai Shipyard and Engineering, Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Group, United Technologies, Thales,
Snecma, Tata Group, MBDA, Raytheon, Boeing, ATLAS ELEKTRONIK, Rolls-Royce, General Electric, MTU, MAN Diesel & Turbo SE, Iveco, Wärtsilä,
Sulzer, Volvo Penta, Guascor, ABC, CAE Safran, Samsung, YANMAR, Thales
Boustead Naval Shipyards, Unithai Shipyard and Engineering, Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Group, United Technologies, Thales,
Snecma, Tata Group, MBDA, Raytheon, Boeing, ATLAS ELEKTRONIK, Rolls-Royce, General Electric, MTU, MAN Diesel & Turbo SE, Iveco, Wärtsilä,
Sulzer, Volvo Penta, Guascor, ABC, CAE Safran, Samsung, YANMAR, Thales
Military Naval Vessels and SIS Market: Competitive Landscape and Key Participants, APAC
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Tier I
Tier II
Tier III
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Executive Summary
• Despite the global economic crisis, the military naval vessels and SIS market is relatively
immune to austerity measures
• Frost & Sullivan estimates that cumulative military naval vessels revenue will be $375.67
billion from 2013 to 2022 expanding at a CAGR of 2.5%. However, cumulative support in
service (SIS) revenue from 2013 to 2022 which is estimated to be $183.27 billion will
expand at a higher CAGR of 3.7%.
• APAC is the most attractive market for foreign shipbuilding companies in terms of access
to the market and expected implementation of naval procurement projects.
• Frigates are becoming primary military vessels in most of the naval fleets. This segment
will generate the highest cumulative revenue of $66.91 billion during 2013 to 2022.
• Western shipbuilding companies should be prepared for growing competition from the
Asia-Pacific (APAC) naval companies.
• Partnership with local mainly state-owned shipyards represent the best route to market
in most of the countries.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
17
Thank You
Amartya De
Senior Consultant
Aerospace & Defense Practice, Asia Pacific
Tel: +603-6207-1071
Mob: +601-2980-2084
Fax: +603.6201.7402
www.aerospace.frost.com