market pulse-april 2016 (public)

8/16/2019 Market Pulse-April 2016 (Public)

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MARKET PULSEApril 2016

1



Survey Methodology

• Monthly online survey of 300+ CA REALTORS®

• Respondents are asked about their last closedtransaction and business activity in their market areafor the previous month.

2



MARKETCONDITIONS

3



Number of FloorCalls Down

Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was …

7668 65

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

I n d e x

Index (>50 is positive)

4

SOURCE: CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS® Market PulseSurvey



ListingAppointments/Client PresentationsDown

Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in yourmarket area this month was …

73 7167

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

I n d e x


5

SOURCE: CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS® Market Pulse Survey



Open HouseTrafficDeclining

Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was …

76 7472

0

10

20

30

40

5060

70

80

90

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16

I n d e x


6




Auctions Decline

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was …

32

44

38

0

5

10

15

20

2530

35

40

45

50

Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-1

I n d e x


7




AllCashPurchasesSteady

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was …

6155 55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16

I n d e x


8




Lackof HousingInventory Remains#1Concern

9

4.6%

5.3%

7.5%

8.2%

14%

16%

33%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Rising interest rates

Lending & financing

Housing bubble

Slow down in economic growth

Home prices overinflated

Decline in housing affordability

Lack of Inventory

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?




REALTORS® Remain MostConcernedAbout Inventory

10

Q:What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%30%

35%

40%

45%

Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

Inventory Affordability




REALTORS® RemainOptimistic about Market

ConditionsOver the NextYear

Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?

73

60 61

0102030405060708090

I n d e x


11




Why REALTORS®ExpectMarketConditions toWorsen

I expect the election to affect interest ratesand buyer confidence.

Prices still too high.

Recession will surface in the first quarter of 2017.

Economic uncertainty.

Q:Why do you expect real estate market conditions to worsen over the next year?

12




LASTTRANSACTION

13



Most PropertiesSellingOver/AtAsking Price

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

F e b

- 1 5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1 5

J u n - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

A u g - 1 5

S e p - 1 5

O c t - 1 5

N o v - 1 5

D e c - 1 5

J a n - 1 6

F e b

- 1 6

M a r - 1 6

A r - 1 6

Below At Over

14




Premium PaidoverAskingPrice Declining

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?

10% 9.8%9.6%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Average

15




% Paid BelowAskingPrice Increased

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?

-11%

-9.6%

-12%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

F e b

- 1 5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1 5

J u n - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

A u g - 1 5

S e p - 1 5

O c t - 1 5

N o v - 1 5

D e c - 1 5

J a n - 1 6

F e b

- 1 6

M a r - 1 6

A p r - 1 6

16




69% of PropertiesReceived MultipleOffers

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

72%

50%

69%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

17




Number ofOffers Down

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.02.5

3.0

3.5

4.03.6

3.32.9

Average


18




MultipleOffers LowerYTY

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1 2 3 4 5 6+

30%

25%

21%

9.0%

6.0%

9.0%

28% 27%

17%

7.0%

3.5%

18%

Number of Offers

16-Apr 15-Apr


19




Number of 3+Offers Down

0%10%

20%

30%

40%

50%60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

J a n - 1 4

F e b

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

F e b

- 1 5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1 5

J u n - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

A u g - 1 5

S e p - 1 5

O c t - 1 5

N o v - 1 5

D e c - 1 5

J a n - 1 6

F e b

- 1 6

M a r - 1 6

A p r - 1 6

1-2 3+


20




3+Offers Higher in Most PriceCategories

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

27%

39% 41%

57%53%

48%

38%

50%50%

17%

34%

47%

65%

46%50%

29%

P e r c e n t a g e o

f P r o p e r t i e s R e c e

i v i n g 3 +

O f f e r s

16-Apr 15-Apr


21




23% of PropertiesHad Listing Price Reductions

Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?

28%

21%23%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

F e b

- 1 5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1 5

J u n - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

A u g - 1 5

S e p - 1 5

O c t - 1 5

N o v - 1 5

D e c - 1 5

J a n - 1 6

F e b

- 1 6

M a r - 1 6

A p r - 1 6

22




Proportionof BuyersWhoWere RentersDeclined

Q:Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

M a y - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

S e p - 1 5

N o v - 1 5

J a n - 1 6

M a r - 1 6

40%

52%

44%

23




FewerSellers Became Renters

Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

M a y - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

S e p - 1 5

N o v - 1 5

J a n - 1 6

M a r - 1 6

16%

21%

16%

24




Share ofFirst-timeBuyersDownLongRunAverage:31%

Q:Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

30%

35%32%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%25%

30%

35%

40%

45% % First-time Buyers Long Run Average

25




MajorityPurchases are Primary Residences

Q: What was the intended/actualuse of the property?

0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%

70%80%90%

100%

J a n - 1 4

F e b

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

F e b

- 1 5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1 5

J u n - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

J a n - 1 6

F e b

- 1 6

M a r - 1 6

A p r - 1 6

Primary residence Investment Vacation home Other

26




Proportionof International BuyersDownLongRunAverage:6.1%

Q:Was the buyer an internationalclient (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?

27


7.0%8.6%

6.6%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

% International Buyers Long Run Average



Top 10Countiesof Respondents

Q: In which county do you live?

28

March 2016 April 20161 Los Angeles Los Angeles

2 San Diego San Diego

3 Riverside Riverside

4 Orange Orange5 Sacramento Contra Costa

6 Alameda Alameda

7 Santa Clara Ventura

8 Contra Costa Santa Clara

9 San Bernardino Sacramento

10 Fresno San Bernardino




What are REALTORS®Saying?

Inventory is low, but doable for this market.

There is concern that interest rate increases could lower salesprices.

Once interest rates increase, we will enter into recession, whichcould lead to price decreases over the next 3-5 years.

Banks need to be more accommodating to self employedborrowers.

Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to sharewith us--such as information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, orother topics?

29


market pulse-april 2016 (public)

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