market trend model for renewable micro-chp in europe gaia group oy month 12 meeting, copenhagen,...
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MARKET TREND MODEL FOR RENEWABLE MICRO-CHP IN EUROPE
Gaia Group OyGaia Group Oy
Month 12 Meeting, Copenhagen, 28-29/9/2005MICROCHEAP: The Integration of Micro-CHP and Renewable Energy
Systems
NTUA: Dr. Aggelos Doukelis
GAIA: Mr. Jari Hiltunen
Laboratory of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants/ Laboratory of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants/ National Technical University of AthensNational Technical University of Athens
National Technical University of Athens/Lab. Of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants
HouseholdsServices Households Services Households Services
Belgium 10333 225 304 7 7 0 5 4304 3457 1614 152 25921 12137 15 47
Czech Republic 10205 861 1816 157 0 6 123 6 2230 1276 52 14121 13991 1282 597
Denmark 5376 20 33 0 0 0 1 1338 659 158 551 10181 12053 1502 731
Germany 82489 1203 440 212 105 25 1484 27408 24725 10320 4048 131172 117896 0 0
Estonia 1359 35 39 0 0 4 18 129 37 49 328 1584 1708 393 76
Greece 11003 25 2 0 0 0 64 3756 9 18 704 15775 16437 28 0
Spain 41201 67 120 0 0 0 0 5039 2513 784 2063 50636 58215 0 0
France 59486 545 668 39 139 1 0 14249 8407 7800 7278 132998 114649 0 0
Ireland 3932 447 288 0 46 622 261 1068 475 291 47 7449 6250 0 0
Italy 57157 16 1 23 0 0 0 6770 14167 6606 1426 62957 67720 0 0Cyprus 710 0 0 0 0 0 0 85 0 0 45 1157 1728 0 0Latvia 2339 55 81 0 0 0 0 91 79 70 848 1317 1895 465 148Lithuania 3469 81 120 0 0 14 11 38 112 36 509 1811 2284 552 176Luxembourg 446 4 0 0 0 0 8 295 228 0 15 737 1138 16 0Hungary 10159 276 387 9 0 215 61 293 3282 1913 345 10440 9774 607 239Malta 396 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 500 565 0 0Netherlands 16149 33 32 0 0 23 0 646 7826 4207 155 22800 34314 158 1099Austria 8053 223 92 178 1 45 65 2179 1458 315 2070 15685 14271 508 529Poland 38426 6330 10184 685 0 330 1 3935 3036 1328 3104 21659 31634 4968 780Portugal 10368 0 0 0 0 0 0 789 147 110 1150 11382 13210 7 6Slovenia 1995 2 3 0 0 2 0 654 65 32 361 2704 3076 97 88Slovakia 5379 397 88 0 0 1102 1 84 1603 651 3 4907 7986 782 212Finland 5201 25 4 0 0 94 0 1732 26 32 1182 19940 15479 1433 916Sweden 8925 0 0 0 0 0 0 1350 44 84 877 41416 30458 2404 1178United Kingdom 59234 1511 1868 178 391 0 0 1614 29128 7724 357 114534 98015 12 751
Population
(thousands)
Solid Fuel
(kTOE)
Petroleum products (gasoil,
res. FO etc) (kTOE)
Electricity (GWh)
Brown coal briquettes
(ktons)
Renewables (wood, wood
waste etc) (kTOE)
Natural Gas (kTOE) District Heating (TJ)
Final Energy Consumption from households/services (2002)Eurostat data
Country Hard coal
(ktons)
Coke (kton
s)
Patent Fuel
(ktons)
Lignite and peat
(ktons)
EUROSTAT data where available + assumptions
Sheet 1: Energy data EU-25Energy consumption (1/2)
National Technical University of Athens/Lab. Of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants
Belgium 788 898 2509 1284 9279 71.5
Czech Republic 312 524 1384 2471 5347 74.9
Denmark 484 785 1894 3497 4220 73.1
Germany 696 732 1590 423 60382 67.3
Estonia 396 702 1166 3558 954 62.8
Greece 408 445 1434 425 4896 64.7
Spain 235 311 1229 884 12814 67.9
France 512 632 2236 1391 37595 64.6
Ireland 518 667 1894 1733 2623 69.6
Italy 392 478 1101 1006 27321 71.9Cyprus 183 328 1630 1685 233 71.4Latvia 463 611 563 1717 1429 45.4Lithuania 217 400 522 2128 1388 61.5Luxembourg 1216 1383 1652 1942 617 71.6Hungary 414 548 1028 1553 5567 71.6Malta 45 156 1263 1286 62 87.7Netherlands 537 628 1412 1064 10142 72.8Austria 738 875 1948 1594 7046 58.3Poland 430 471 564 477 18099 53.2Portugal 201 301 1098 1161 3121 59.9Slovenia 543 594 1355 588 1185 56.9Slovakia 392 549 912 1831 2953 73.2Finland 577 997 3834 4888 5185 69.1Sweden 261 854 4640 6898 7622 81.8United Kingdom 551 744 1934 2250 44070 75.1
Total input fuel (kTOE)
Calculated total
Efficiency for household
fuel consumption
(%)
Final Energy Consumption from households/services (2002)
Country
Calculated Household electricity
consumption for heating per capita
(kWh)
Calculated Household electricity
consumption per capita
(kWh)
Calculated Household fuel energy
consumption per capita
(kgOE)
Household Energy
consumption per capita
(kgOE) - From Eurostat Tables
Calculations of basic energy data
Sheet 1: Energy data EU-25 Energy consumption (2/2)
National Technical University of Athens/Lab. Of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants
Population (thousands
)
Average persons per household
Detached and semi-detached single family
house
Building with less than 10
dwellings
Building with more
than 10 dwellings
Detached and semi-detached
single family houses
Buildings with less than 10
dwellings
Buildings with more
than 10 dwellings
Persons per Detached and
semi-detached
single family house
Persons per
Building with less than 10
dwellings
Persons per
Building with more
than 10 dwellings
Families per
Detached and semi-detached
single family house
Families per
Building with less than 10
dwellings
Families per
Building with more
than 10 dwellings
Belgium 10333 2.4 0.779 0.113 0.108 3355692 80902 25795 2.40 14.40 43.20 1 6 18
Czech Republic 10205 3.0 0.554 0.029 0.417 1884257 16675 78742 3.00 18.00 54.00 1 6 18
Denmark 5376 2.2 0.574 0.142 0.284 1401497 57897 38598 2.20 13.20 39.60 1 6 18
Germany 82489 2.2 0.392 0.382 0.225 14703922 2389387 469709 2.20 13.20 39.60 1 6 18
Estonia 1359 3.0 0.554 0.029 0.417 250926 2221 10486 3.00 18.00 54.00 1 6 18
Greece 11003 2.6 0.456 0.328 0.216 1929259 231649 50709 2.60 15.60 46.80 1 6 18
Spain 41201 3.0 0.368 0.172 0.461 5049142 392711 351570 3.00 18.00 54.00 1 6 18
France 59486 2.4 0.574 0.142 0.284 14215404 587246 391497 2.40 14.40 43.20 1 6 18
Ireland 3932 3.0 0.931 0.039 0.029 1220719 8566 2142 3.00 18.00 54.00 1 6 18
Italy 57157 2.6 0.319 0.358 0.324 7004534 1311105 395128 2.60 15.60 46.80 1 6 18
Cyprus 710 3.0 0.456 0.328 0.216 107892 12955 2836 3.00 18.00 54.00 1 6 18
Latvia 2339 3.0 0.554 0.029 0.417 431874 3822 18048 3.00 18.00 54.00 1 6 18
Lithuania 3469 3.0 0.554 0.029 0.417 640518 5668 26767 3.00 18.00 54.00 1 6 18
Luxembourg 446 2.5 0.667 0.201 0.132 118933 5976 1312 2.50 15.00 45.00 1 6 18
Hungary 10159 3.0 0.456 0.328 0.216 1543770 185363 40577 3.00 18.00 54.00 1 6 18
Malta 396 3.0 0.456 0.328 0.216 60176 7225 1582 3.00 18.00 54.00 1 6 18
Netherlands 16149 2.3 0.672 0.054 0.275 4715288 63100 107079 2.30 13.80 41.40 1 6 18
Austria 8053 2.4 0.436 0.152 0.412 1463883 84982 76758 2.40 14.40 43.20 1 6 18
Poland 38426 3.0 0.554 0.029 0.417 7094997 62788 296497 3.00 18.00 54.00 1 6 18
Portugal 10368 2.9 0.681 0.201 0.118 2436024 119757 23367 2.90 17.40 52.20 1 6 18
Slovenia 1995 3.0 0.436 0.152 0.412 290123 16842 15212 3.00 18.00 54.00 1 6 18
Slovakia 5379 3.0 0.436 0.152 0.412 782240 45411 41016 3.00 18.00 54.00 1 6 18
Finland 5201 2.1 0.554 0.029 0.417 1371879 12141 57330 2.10 12.60 37.80 1 6 18
Sweden 8925 1.9 0.554 0.029 0.417 2601974 23026 108735 1.90 11.40 34.20 1 6 18
United Kingdom 59234 2.4 0.819 0.113 0.069 20204408 463774 94099 2.40 14.40 43.20 1 6 18
From acquired data (the red were missing, assumptions have been made)
Country
Assumptions on number of families per average building
Calculations of number of buildings per category
Literature data on average persons/household, % of buildings per category + assumptions
Calculation: number of buildings/category, persons per building
Sheet 2: Dwellings
National Technical University of Athens/Lab. Of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants
Detached and semi-detached
single family house
Building with less than 10
dwellings
Building with more
than 10 dwellings
Number
Full load hrs according to
electricity demand per dwelling (hr)
Number
Full load hrs according to
electricity demand per dwelling (hr)
Number
Full load hrs according to
electricity demand per dwelling (hr)
Number
Full load hrs according to
electricity demand per dwelling (hr)
Number
Full load hrs according to
electricity demand per dwelling (hr)
Number
Full load hrs according to
electricity demand per dwelling (hr)
Number
Full load hrs according to
electricity demand per dwelling (hr)
Number
Full load hrs according to
electricity demand per dwelling (hr)
Number
Full load hrs according to
electricity demand per dwelling (hr)
Belgium 10333 2.4 45504 3010 1097 6021 350 6021 2746809 3010 66223 6021 21115 6021 15370 3010 371 6021 1182 6021 21314 21314 127886 383658
Czech Republic 10205 3 161952 2076 1433 4151 6768 4151 736020 2076 6513 4151 30758 4151 4891 2076 43 4151 2044 4151 28021 28021 168128 504385
Denmark 5376 2.2 3636 2083 150 4166 100 4166 635149 2083 26238 4166 17492 4166 50080 2083 2069 4166 13792 4166 25178 25178 151066 453198
Germany 82489 2.2 174137 1749 28297 3498 5563 3498 13206151 1749 2146000 3498 421863 3498 292979 1749 47609 3498 93590 3498 12988 12988 77929 233788
Estonia 1359 3 5863 1748 52 3497 245 3497 48623 1748 430 3497 2032 3497 27474 1748 243 3497 11481 3497 20864 20864 125187 375561
Greece 11003 2.6 6089 1864 731 3728 160 3728 1604485 1864 192653 3728 42173 3728 85729 1864 10294 3728 22533 3728 9019 9019 54113 162340
Spain 41201 3.0 15552 1843 1210 3687 1083 3687 3067627 1843 238593 3687 213598 3687 239435 1843 18623 3687 166718 3687 8621 8621 51723 155169
France 59486 2.4 127566 2683 5270 5366 3513 5366 9280435 2683 383380 5366 255587 5366 851765 2683 35187 5366 234579 5366 13026 13026 78158 234474
Ireland 3932 3.0 119614 2842 839 5683 210 5683 722403 2842 5069 5683 1267 5683 6288 2842 44 5683 110 5683 23254 23254 139526 418577
Italy 57157 2.6 2282 1432 427 2864 129 2864 5226172 1432 978232 2864 294810 2864 101702 1432 19037 2864 57371 2864 12937 12937 77623 232869Cyprus 710 3 0 2444 0 4889 0 4889 38617 2444 4637 4889 1015 4889 5841 2444 701 4889 1535 4889 15796 15796 94775 284325Latvia 2339 3 14652 845 130 1689 612 1689 79101 845 700 1689 3306 1689 112955 845 1000 1689 47204 1689 6628 6628 39766 119299Lithuania 3469 3 24304 783 215 1566 1016 1566 78523 783 695 1566 3281 1566 76363 783 676 1566 31912 1566 11816 11816 70893 212680Luxembourg 446 2.5 431 2066 22 4131 5 4131 98550 2066 4952 4131 1087 4131 808 2066 41 4131 89 4131 33997 33997 203981 611944Hungary 10159 3 42783 1541 5137 3083 1125 3083 969888 1541 116456 3083 25493 3083 26739 1541 3211 3083 7028 3083 19354 19354 116122 348366Malta 396 3 0 1894 0 3788 0 3788 13993 1894 1680 3788 368 3788 0 1894 0 3788 0 3788 20532 20532 123191 369574Netherlands 16149 2.3 8432 1624 113 3247 191 3247 3788244 1624 50694 3247 86027 3247 19802 1624 265 3247 4497 3247 14916 14916 89494 268481Austria 8053 2.4 31779 2337 1845 4675 1666 4675 907136 2337 52661 4675 47565 4675 147495 2337 8562 4675 77338 4675 12767 12767 76601 229802Poland 38426 3 1864409 845 16499 1691 77913 1691 3593151 845 31798 1691 150156 1691 457119 845 4045 1691 191028 1691 8137 8137 48820 146459Portugal 10368 2.9 0 1592 0 3184 0 3184 853865 1592 41977 3184 8191 3184 299885 1592 14743 3184 28766 3184 10063 10063 60378 181133Slovenia 1995 3 344 2033 20 4066 18 4066 216557 2033 12572 4066 11355 4066 31073 2033 1804 4066 16293 4066 9419 9419 56514 169543Slovakia 5379 3 57456 1368 3335 2737 3013 2737 427381 1368 24811 2737 22409 2737 217 1368 13 2737 114 2737 22578 22578 135469 406407Finland 5201 2.1 3827 4026 34 8051 160 8051 470971 4026 4168 8051 19682 8051 90472 4026 801 8051 37808 8051 25530 25530 153179 459536Sweden 8925 1.9 0 4408 0 8817 0 8817 407316 4408 3605 8817 17022 8817 73235 4408 648 8817 30604 8817 53161 53161 318965 956896United Kingdom 59234 2.4 369126 2320 8473 4641 1719 4641 13142433 2320 301673 4641 61209 4641 43606 2320 1001 4641 2031 4641 23190 23190 139138 417415
Total 453790 3079737 75329 105558 62359598 4696409 1758859 3061324 171028 1079648
Heat requirement per family
(kWh)
76387491
Total number of
boilersCountry
Building with more than 10 dwellings
Detached and semi-detached single family houseAverage
persons per household
Population (thousands)
Boilers with Solid fuels
Detached and semi-detached single family
house
Building with less than 10 dwellings
Building with more than 10 dwellings
Boilers with Petroleum products and natural gas Boilers with Renewables (wood, wood waste etc)
Building with less than 10 dwellings
Detached and semi-detached single family
house
Building with less than 10 dwellings
Building with more than 10 dwellings
2898020
950422
748706
16416189
96444
1964846
3962438
11177281
855846
668016152347259659
1247425
216986105983119785916041
Heat requirement (kWh)
13931270
290037538748627922532429
395826412760486386119
Utilisation of the first two sheets to calculate: number of "average" boilers and full load hours per building type and fuel category, heat requirements per building.
Sheet 3: Full load hrs
National Technical University of Athens/Lab. Of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants
Estimation of market potential for 3 types of machines:
• 2 kW Stirling Engine for detached and semi-detached single-family houses
• 6 kW FC for buildings with less than 10 dwellings
• 18 kW microGT for buildings with more than 10 dwellings
Utilisation of typical operating data of the machines, capital cost data, fuel price and electricity price data (EUROSTAT)
Sheet 4-6: Economics (1/6)
National Technical University of Athens/Lab. Of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants
Belgium 245343 23744 7 10 0.1370 0.0319 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008
Czech Republic 44450 4356 7 10 0.0685 0.0227 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008
Denmark 161384 30019 7 10 0.2134 0.0453 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008
Germany 2076860 25177 7 10 0.1575 0.0366 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008
Estonia 4000 2943 7 10 0.0658 0.0141 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008
Greece 115046 10456 7 10 0.0760 0.0450 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008
Spain 566378 13747 7 10 0.0990 0.0369 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008
France 1400756 23548 7 10 0.1136 0.0324 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008
Ireland 92225 23455 7 10 0.1144 0.0317 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008
Italy 942346 16487 7 10 0.1834 0.0450 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008Cyprus 8656 12192 7 10 0.1037 0.0450 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008Latvia 5166 2209 7 10 0.0660 0.0139 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008Lithuania 6813 1964 7 10 0.0647 0.0165 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008Luxembourg 20051 44957 7 10 0.1253 0.0276 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008Hungary 44641 4394 7 10 0.1074 0.0194 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008Malta 3117 7871 7 10 0.0796 0.0450 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008Netherlands 386785 23951 7 10 0.1801 0.0347 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008Austria 209993 26076 7 10 0.1331 0.0321 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008Poland 136719 3558 7 10 0.0827 0.0223 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008Portugal 101933 9832 7 10 0.1199 0.0423 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008Slovenia 20062 10056 7 10 0.0923 0.0282 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008Slovakia 19256 3580 7 10 0.1008 0.0246 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008Finland 129171 24836 7 10 0.0893 0.0266 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008Sweden 229349 25697 7 10 0.1275 0.0422 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008United Kingdom 1051071 17744 7 10 0.0963 0.0233 2.0 20.0 60.0 1800 0.02 0.008
Total
Country
Electricity price
(Euro/kWh) - From Eurostat
Unit Price (Euro/kW)
N.G. fuel price (Euros/kWh) -
From Eurostat. (red were not
available)
Unit size (kW)
Biomass cost
(Euros/kWh)
GDP (Meuros)
GDP per capita
(Euros)
Electric Efficiency
(%)
Thermal Efficiency
(%)
Maximum
payback to be
accepted by
market (years)
Maximum capital
cost (% of GDP)
Maintenance costs
(Euros/kWh)
Sheet 4-6: Economics (2/6)
2 kW Stirling Engine
National Technical University of Athens/Lab. Of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants
Market potential
Full load
hours
Heat demand coverage (%)
Annual Profit
(Euros)
Capital cost/GDP per building (%)
Capital cost marketability
factor
Payback (years)
Belgium 12226 3010 84.7 1902.2 6.3 0.4 2
Czech Republic 0 2076 44.4 741.3 27.6 0.0 5
Denmark 1240 2083 49.6 2054.2 5.5 0.5 2
Germany 36857 1749 80.8 1300.7 6.5 0.4 3
Estonia 0 1748 50.3 390.3 40.8 0.0 9
Greece 0 1864 124.0 1074.2 13.2 0.0 3
Spain 894 1843 128.3 939.0 8.7 0.1 4
France 28569 2683 123.6 1342.7 6.4 0.4 3
Ireland 40313 2842 73.3 1659.5 5.1 0.5 2
Italy 223 1432 66.4 1319.9 8.4 0.2 3Cyprus 0 2444 92.8 1863.5 9.8 0.0 2Latvia 0 845 76.5 185.6 54.3 0.0 19Lithuania 0 783 39.8 200.9 61.1 0.0 18Luxembourg 159 2066 36.5 1126.3 3.2 0.7 3Hungary 0 1541 47.8 593.9 27.3 0.0 6Malta 0 1894 55.3 1352.6 15.2 0.0 3Netherlands 1705 1624 65.3 1235.1 6.5 0.3 3Austria 8414 2337 109.8 1365.4 5.8 0.4 3Poland 0 845 62.3 320.9 33.7 0.0 11Portugal 0 1592 94.9 1200.6 12.6 0.0 3Slovenia 0 2033 129.5 794.2 11.9 0.0 5Slovakia 0 1368 36.4 617.0 33.5 0.0 6Finland 854 4026 94.6 1840.3 6.9 0.3 2Sweden 0 4408 49.8 3385.1 7.4 0.3 1United Kingdom 27063 2320 60.0 977.8 8.5 0.2 4
Total 158519
Detached and semi-detached single family houseCountry
Boilers w ith Solid fuels
Sheet 4-6: Economics (3/6)
2 kW Stirling Engine
National Technical University of Athens/Lab. Of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants
Market potential
Full load hours
Heat demand coverage (%)
Annual Profit
(Euros)
Capital cost/GDP per capita
(%)
Capital cost marketabilit
y factor
Payback (years)
Belgium 606877 3010 84.7 1285.6 6.3 0.4 3
Czech Republic 0 2076 44.4 438.7 27.6 0.0 8
Denmark 186288 2083 49.6 1447.7 5.5 0.5 2
Germany 1949850 1749 80.8 889.4 6.5 0.4 4
Estonia 0 1748 50.3 231.7 40.8 0.0 16
Greece 0 1864 124.0 639.4 13.2 0.0 6
Spain 54651 1843 128.3 598.2 8.7 0.1 6
France 1423209 2683 123.6 890.5 6.4 0.4 4
Ireland 184924 2842 73.3 1080.8 5.1 0.5 3
Italy 361731 1432 66.4 905.6 8.4 0.2 4Cyprus 337 2444 92.8 1156.4 9.8 0.0 3Latvia 0 845 76.5 110.3 54.3 0.0 33Lithuania 0 783 39.8 117.9 61.1 0.0 31Luxembourg 21610 2066 36.5 759.2 3.2 0.7 5Hungary 0 1541 47.8 402.0 27.3 0.0 9Malta 0 1894 55.3 804.7 15.2 0.0 4Netherlands 539248 1624 65.3 872.9 6.5 0.3 4Austria 171474 2337 109.8 926.7 5.8 0.4 4Poland 0 845 62.3 199.7 33.7 0.0 18Portugal 0 1592 94.9 767.8 12.6 0.0 5Slovenia 0 2033 129.5 510.1 11.9 0.0 7Slovakia 0 1368 36.4 400.4 33.5 0.0 9Finland 80795 4026 94.6 1152.7 6.9 0.3 3Sweden 81859 4408 49.8 2189.4 7.4 0.3 2United Kingdom 375774 2320 60.0 630.9 8.5 0.2 6
Total 6038627
Boilers w ith Petroleum products and natural gas
Detached and semi-detached single family houseCountry
Sheet 4-6: Economics (4/6)
2 kW Stirling Engine
National Technical University of Athens/Lab. Of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants
Market potential
Full load hours
Heat demand coverage (%)
Annual Profit
(Euros)
Capital cost/GDP per capita
(%)
Capital cost marketabilit
y factor
Payback (years)
Belgium 3206 3010 84.7 1186.0 6.3 0.4 3
Czech Republic 0 2076 44.4 533.4 27.6 0.0 7
Denmark 12495 2083 49.6 1139.0 5.5 0.5 3
Germany 33235 1749 80.8 760.8 6.5 0.4 5
Estonia 0 1748 50.3 439.8 40.8 0.0 8
Greece 0 1864 124.0 420.3 13.2 0.0 9
Spain 0 1843 128.3 488.5 8.7 0.1 7
France 112542 2683 123.6 808.6 6.4 0.4 4
Ireland 1478 2842 73.3 991.1 5.1 0.5 4
Italy 4270 1432 66.4 697.0 8.4 0.2 5Cyprus 33 2444 92.8 800.2 9.8 0.0 4Latvia 0 845 76.5 212.7 54.3 0.0 17Lithuania 0 783 39.8 195.1 61.1 0.0 18Luxembourg 180 2066 36.5 765.4 3.2 0.7 5Hungary 0 1541 47.8 516.0 27.3 0.0 7Malta 0 1894 55.3 528.7 15.2 0.0 7Netherlands 2335 1624 65.3 779.6 6.5 0.3 5Austria 24848 2337 109.8 852.3 5.8 0.4 4Poland 0 845 62.3 241.2 33.7 0.0 15Portugal 0 1592 94.9 572.7 12.6 0.0 6Slovenia 0 2033 129.5 508.0 11.9 0.0 7Slovakia 0 1368 36.4 440.0 33.5 0.0 8Finland 16034 4026 94.6 1202.0 6.9 0.3 3Sweden 13252 4408 49.8 1653.1 7.4 0.3 2United Kingdom 1962 2320 60.0 725.3 8.5 0.2 5
Total 225869
Boilers w ith Renewables (wood, wood waste etc)
Detached and semi-detached single family houseCountry
Sheet 4-6: Economics (5/6)
2 kW Stirling Engine
National Technical University of Athens/Lab. Of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants
The market potential is calculated by multiplying the market segment in each case (total number of boilers) by two factors which have a value between 0 and 1. For each of these factors a maximum value, rendering the factor 0, is set.
The first one is a "marketability factor", defined by the ratio capital cost/GDP (per building), representing a maximum “allowable” capital expenditure.
The second is the payback period factor, representing the economics of the investment.
Sheet 4-6: Economics (6/6)
National Technical University of Athens/Lab. Of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants
Units% of total
market
Electricity generation
(GWh)Units
% of total
market
Electricity generation
(GWh)Units
% of total
market
Electricity generation
(GWh)
Belgium 622309 22.2 3747 11302 16.7 408 15554 68.7 1686 11923250 1498.9Czech Republic 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 5499 13.9 411 739546 271.7Denmark 200023 29.0 833 9039 31.8 226 19875 63.3 1491 4812212 166.9Germany 2019942 14.8 7067 32025 1.4 672 304538 58.5 19177 51174591 241.6Estonia 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0Greece 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 20744 32.0 1392 2505335 68.0Spain 55545 1.7 205 67 0.0 1 152270 39.9 10106 18652431 172.8France 1564320 15.2 8394 55176 13.0 1776 268510 54.4 25934 67566605 177.4Ireland 226715 26.7 1289 801 13.5 27 1109 69.9 113 3134109 1274.2Italy 366225 6.9 1049 98593 9.9 1694 201590 57.2 10392 22970923 307.8Cyprus 370 0.8 2 176 3.3 5 831 32.6 73 141532 60.1Latvia 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0Lithuania 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0Luxembourg 21949 22.0 91 3 0.1 0 795 67.3 59 310493 395.5Hungary 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 3637 10.8 202 363278 20.1Malta 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 174 47.2 12 21306 #DIV/0!Netherlands 543288 14.2 1764 1968 3.9 38 56528 62.3 3304 9959999 1227.8Austria 204736 18.8 957 9620 15.3 270 67309 53.2 5664 12651234 116.8Poland 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 2426 0.6 74 132905 0.8Portugal 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 4065 11.0 233 419274 7.0Slovenia 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 5506 19.9 403 725354 38.4Slovakia 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 1018 4.0 50 90271 575.0Finland 97683 17.3 786 643 12.8 31 27351 47.4 3964 8939161 144.5Sweden 95111 19.8 839 1101 25.9 58 23219 48.8 3685 8585102 187.0United Kingdom 404799 3.0 1879 129 0.0 4 34271 52.8 2863 9383549 502.2Total 6423014 9.4 28900 220642 4.5 5212 1216818 41.3 91286 235202461 284.2
Biomass consumption (tn) - 8 MJ/kgr (30%
moisture)
% increase of current
biomass consumption
Country
2 kW Stirling 6 kW FC 18 kW MicroGT
Sheet 7: Summary market potential
An overview of the results is presented.Calculation of the required biomass to cover the operation of the established total market potential is included. This is an important factor, since availability of such quantities may reduce the market potential.