marketing crack - transition 2015 conference
TRANSCRIPT
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MARKETING CRACK KICKING THE HABIT
W I E D E N + K E N N E D Y
W I E D E N + K E N N E D Y
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“We’ve created a gambling culture in which we tune out everything
except the most immediate outcomes.” Laurence Fink,
Chairman and CEO, BlackRock
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5 themes: impatience addiction recovery
habits hope
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IMPATIENCE
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$100 today? or $125 a year from now?
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most people choose
$100 today (rejecting a 25% return)
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“temporal discounting” psychologists
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“rates of time preference” economists
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“patience”
you and I
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we live in impatient times
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management horizon:
3 months out McKinsey
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70-90% of company value:
3+ years out McKinsey
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cash-flows 5 years ahead
valued as if 8+ more years ahead
Andrew Haldane, Bank of England
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% of corporate earnings and borrowing used to go into investment:
1960s: 40 1980s: 10
Roosevelt Institute
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% of S&P companies’ profits spent on share buy backs and dividends:
95 Forbes
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total amount spent between 2004 and 2013 on share buybacks:
$3.4 trillion Prof. William Lazonick
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number of S&P 500 CEOs serving 15+ years:
28 Spencer Stuart/Wall Street Journal
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average agency-client tenure:
1980’s: 8.5 years Forbes
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average agency-client tenure:
today: 3 years Forbes
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culprit #1 the relentless (and reckless) pursuit
of shareholder value
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“The world’s dumbest idea” Jack Welch, former General Electric CEO
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culprit #2 the speed of our machines
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culture and capital move
at the speed of our machines
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time for news of Nelson’s victory in 1805
at the Battle of Trafalgar to reach London:
17 days (2.7mph) Prof. John Tomlinson
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time for news of the Sichuan earthquake in 2008
to reach London:
1 minute (204,000mph) Prof. John Tomlinson
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decline in average tenure of Premiership football manager:
down one month per year since 1994
Sue Bridegwater, Liverpool University
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by 2020:
one season
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50% of viewers stop waiting for online video to load
after 10 seconds Kiushnan & Sitaraman
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29capitalism has become a system of extraction
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30culture has relocated itself
to the present moment
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“The long is short” Andrew Haldane,
Chief Economist and Executive Director of Monetary Analysis and Statistics, Bank of England
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ADDICTION
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“A pathological attachment to something attractive in the short term, but
destructive over time”
Dr. Chris Johnstone, addiction specialist
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chasing short-term metrics…
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except that
easy to measure ≉ important
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and
distribution ≉ value
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chasing real-time optimisation…
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“activity can be honed hour by hour if desired”
source withheld
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except that advertising
does NOT pay back in the short-term
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chasing short-term efficiencies…
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“with this type of automated advertising, you know your ad
impressions will only be used on certain people who are already
interested in your product or service.”
media agency
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except that
response rate ≉ effect size
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and
demand fulfilment ≉ brand building
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awarding creative innovation…
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except that
creative innovation
≉ brand building
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this isn’t brand building
it’s addiction
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“Recovery is about looking where we’re going and choosing a path
that can last.”
Dr. Chris Johnstone, addiction specialist
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RECOVERY
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sustained, profitable brand building
is long-term by nature
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long term effect
≉ a series of short-term effects
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short-term effect: short-term sales uplifts
but no price effects
Binet & Field
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long-term effect: rising base sales
Binet & Field
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long-term effect: and rising pricing
Binet & Field
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building “memory structures”
Byron Sharp
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building “empires of the mind”
Judith Williamson
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building brands
everyone else
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HABITS
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think like the platform builders
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TAKE THE LONG VIEW
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“A management team distracted by a series of short term targets is as pointless as a dieter stepping on a
scale every half hour.”
Brin & Page
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Sir Alex Ferguson Manchester United
1986 - 2013
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build a club not just a team
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“Winning a game is only a short-term gain - you can lose the next game. Building a club brings stability
and consistency.”
Sir Alex Ferguson
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49 trophies the most successful managerial career
British football has ever known
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THINK BIG
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“Big ideas take too much time to find… full of hot air, fluff, inflated with self-importance,
exaggeration and hyperbole.”
Joseph Jaffe
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riiiiiight…
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“Being right also puts the onus on us: every aspect of our business, be it the
customer service team, web team, finance team, we place the customer
needs above all else.”
Global Chief Marketing Officer, booking.com
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EXTRACT MAXIMUM VALUE
FROM YOUR PLATFORM
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BUILD A PLATFORM OTHERS WANT TO
DEVELOP FOR
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HOPE
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that we get back to
creating value not just extracting it
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that we build around
the needs of people not merely the needs of shareholders
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that we start thinking
bigger, longer, and broader
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that we start creating
sustainable futures for our clients’ brands and businesses
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that we get back to
building things