MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDENYSE: VAC (Buy)

Stock Overview

• Price: 54.95• Market Cap: 1.91B

52 week low: 40.4252 week high: 58.14Beta: 1.52

ValuationVAC Industry

P/E 23.79 (FWD: 18.63) 241.10

PEG 1.45 N/A

P/S 1.44 2.14

P/B 1.64 3.82

P/FCF 21.30 44.80

*The stock was compared to the industry because very few companies are separated and public from the parent company in the timeshare industry

Industry/Business Overview

• A timeshare is owning a certain property for period of time

• Key players include Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, Exclusive, Four seasons, Diamond, Disney, and Wyndham

• Key Factors are: number and locations of hotels, size of customer base, quality, & features

Industry/Business Overview (2)

• Marriott demographic: white collar, $150K+, college educated, 50+, with kids

• Industry demographics: $74,000 median household income, 47% employed full time

• 83% of owners are have a good/very good experience, 94% found their resort to be good/very good, 79% are likely to recommend timeshares, 66% would buy another one, 86% would recommend their own resort to others

Thesis• The timeshare industry was hit hard due to the recession and Marriott Vacations is poised to be at the forefront of the recovery

• Great expansion opportunities in Asia due to increasing wealth there• Also baby boomers are turning 50 in 2014

• An increasing customer base allows Marriott to cement its position as number 1

Management

• CEO is Stephen Weiz• President since 1996, CEO since 2011• Joined Marriott in 1972• Has held a variety of leadership positions throughout his 41 year long career with Marriott

• Chairman of the Board is William Shaw• Chairman since 2011• Joined Marriott in 1974• He also has held a variety of leadership positions throughout his 39 year long career with Marriott

Key facts

• The timeshare industry as a whole benefits from the network effect

• Marriott is the world’s largest pure-play vacation ownership business (2012)

• Marriott has the largest customer base (from what I could find online)

• Marriott has the second largest hotel collection (1 hotel less than Diamond, 15 more than 3rd )

• Shifting from 60% existing and 40% new to 50% new and 50% old

Rankings and Popularity

Expansion and Brand Power

• A little less than 90% of property is utilized• Great potential in Asia (growing wealth there)

• Most customers are concentrated in the USA

• The baby boomers are now in their 50’s• Ritz Carlton is the most sought after brand in its category

• In the top 10 luxury hotel Marriott has 2 (more than any competitor)

Map

Risks

• Even one mistake could damage their brand irreparably

• They could lose their licensing agreements with Marriott and Ritz Carlton• This will only happen if Marriott Vacations violates the contract; the contract expires in 2090

• A recession would definitely hurt revenue• Competitors could easily build more resorts and potentially have more customers