materi investor summit 21 november-pak ito warsito

8/3/2019 Materi Investor Summit 21 November-Pak Ito Warsito

1/29

Indonesia Economy

and Capital Market Update

Ito WarsitoPresident Director

Indonesia Stock Exchange

21 November 2011


2/29

Indonesia Real Economic Growth2006 2011 Q3

6,54%

Average 5.81%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Indonesia is one of only few countries

survived Global Economic Slowdown withoutsuffering a recession


3/29

What sustain Indonesia?Private Consumption and Services as the main engine

Private Consumption has the largest contribution to economic growth. But in the long term, this will not be

enough. Indonesia need to push more resources on investment and trades. More investment on infrastructures

and trades will lower economic costs, creating jobs, and ensure a more stable consumption in the future

After Asian Crisis 1998, Services has been taking over Industries as the main engine of the economy . Yet we

need more to be done because 40% of employment is still tied to agriculture. We have a problem of too many

jobs contributing the less to the economy and have serious problem of productivity.

The Main Indicator of Indonesian Economy

Indicators (%,YoY) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20102011

Q12011

Q22011

Q3

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 7.82 4.70 -13.13 0.82 4.89 3.64 4.50 4.78 5.03 5.69 5.51 6.32 6.10 4.55 6.10 6.49 6.52 6.54A. Aggregate Demand

Consumption 9.7 7.8 -6.2 4.6 1.6 3.5 3.8 3.9 5.0 4.0 3.2 5.0 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.8

Government Expenditure 2.7 0.1 -15.4 0.7 6.5 7.6 13 10 4 6.6 9.6 3.9 10.4 15.7 0.3 2.8 4.5 2.5

Gross Fix Capital Formation 14.5 8.6 -33 -18.2 16.7 6.5 4.7 0.6 14.7 10.9 2.5 9.2 11.7 3.3 2.0 7.3 9.4 7.1

Export 7.6 7.8 11.2 -31.8 26.5 0.6 -1.2 5.9 13.5 16.6 9.4 8 9.5 -9.7 6.4 12.5 17.5 18.5

Import 6.9 14.7 -5.3 -40.7 25.9 4.2 -4.2 1.6 26.7 17.8 8.6 8.9 10.0 -15 5.6 14.4 15.3 14.2

B. Sectoral Value Added

Agriculture 3.1 1.0 -1.3 2.2 1.9 3.3 3.4 3.8 2.8 2.7 3.4 3.5 4.8 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.9 2.7

Mining 6.3 2.1 -2.8 -1.6 5.5 0.3 1.0 -1.4 -4.5 3.2 1.7 2.0 0.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 0.8 0.3

Manufacturing 11.6 5.3 -11.4 3.9 6.0 3.3 5.3 5.3 6.4 4.6 4.6 5.7 3.7 2.1 5.3 5.0 6.1 6.6

Utilities 14.0 12.4 3.0 8.3 7.6 7.9 8.9 6.1 7.5 7.5 8.3 8.6 10.9 13.8 4.3 4.3 3.9 5.2

Construction 12.8 7.4 -36.4 -1.9 5.6 4.6 5.5 6.1 7.5 7.5 8.3 8.6 7.3 7.1 6.7 5.3 7.6 6.4Trade, Hotel, Restaurant 8.2 5.8 -18.2 -0.1 5.7 3.9 4.3 5.4 5.7 8.3 6.4 8.5 7.2 1.1 8.4 8.0 9.6 10.1

Transportation & Comm. 8.7 7.0 -26.6 -7.2 4.6 6.8 6.7 6.7 7.7 6.7 5.5 8.0 16.7 15.5 15.5 13.7 10.7 9.5

Financial & Rent 6.0 5.9 -26.6 -7.2 4.6 6.8 6.7 6.7 7.7 6.7 5.5 8.0 8.2 5.0 6.3 7.3 6.9 7.0

Other Services 3.4 3.6 -3.8 1.9 2.3 3.2 3.8 4.4 5.4 5.2 6.2 6.6 6.4 6.4 7.5 7.0 5.7 7.8

C. Money Market

Reserve (US$ Miliar) 19.1 21.4 23.8 27.1 29.4 28 31.6 36.2 36.3 34.7 42.6 56.9 51.6 66.1 96.207 105.709 119.654 114.502

Exchange Rate (Rp/US$) 2,383 4,650 8,065 7,100 9,595 10,400 8,940 8,465 9,290 9,840 9,020 9,419 10,950 9,400 8,991 8,709 8,597 8,823

Inflation (%) 6.5 10.3 77.6 1.9 9.3 12.5 10.0 5.1 6.4 17.1 6.6 6.6 11.1 2.8 6.96 6.65 5.54 4.61

BI rate (%) 12.8 20 38.44 20.68 17.65 19.19 18.25 15.07 13.41 12.75 9.75 8 9.25 6.5 6.5 6.75 6.75 6.75

Source : Indonesia Central Bureau of Statistics, Bank Indonesia, IDX

estimates (F).


4/29

An Update on Inflation FiguresVolatile components moving lower

Most major countries havewitnessed an increase on

inflation, except Indonesia

Volatile component on

inflation has been subdued,

while core & administered

component has been

relatively stable.

We can expect inflation rate

become stable until the end

of 2011.

Risk factor: Weather andsupply of food staple

(especially Rice)

Source: Statistics Indonesia, Bloomberg0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

Japan

France

Germany

EU

Malaysia

US

Thailand

Korea

Indonesia

Philippines

UK

Singapore

China

India

Vietnam

% y-o-yDec-10 Sep-11

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

2009 2010 2011

Core Administered Price Volatile Good CPI Headline (%,yoy)


5/29

Global Economic Growthin 2011, countries are hitting brakes

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Japan

UK

US

France

EU

Thailand

Germany

Korea

Philippines

Malaysia

Vietnam

Indonesia

India

China

%Y-O-Y

Q4-2010 Q2-2011

Compared to Q4 2010,

economic growth in

the Q2 2011 has been

slowing down.

Most of economic

slowing down

happened in Developedcountries.

Significant slowing

down can be seen in

Philippines, United

States and Japan.

Further slowing downcould happen in the

Final Quarter of 2011

Source: Statistics Indonesia, Bloomberg


6/29

A Snapshot on Indonesian Debt ReductionLesser risk compared to peers

46% 42%

32% 34%29%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total Debt service (% of Tax

revenue)

Source: Bank Indonesia

40,4336,85

33,2428,65 26,94

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total Government Debt (%GDP)

Source: International Monetary Fund

6%5%

4% 4%

3%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Debt Service (%GDP)

Source: Bank Indonesia

72,9

56,249,9

38,6

34

29,3

27,426,4

-1,71

-1,14

-0,9

-1,2-1,48

-1,91

-2,49

-2,08

-3

-2,5

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Deficit to GDP (%)Debt to GDP (%)

Debt to GDP (%) Deficit to GDP (%)


7/29

A steady improvement on Credit Ratingwhile the world swamped by rating downgrades

Investmentgrade

NonInvestmentGrad

e


8/29

BB+ vs. BBB RatingIndonesia among Russia, Brazil, & India

Investment

to GDP

Savings to

GDP

Gov. Balance

%GDP

Primary

Balance

Gov Dom.

Debt to GDP

Commodity

dependence

Russia 22.8% 28.6% -1.2% -3.6% 8.9% 64.5%

Brazil 19.2% 18.3% -2.8% 2.7% 51.8% 47.7%

India 34.6% 31.3% -7.9% -4.4% 62.2% 17.6%

Indonesia 32.5% 34.2% -1.8% 0.8% 14.1% 49.8%Current Acc.

Bal. %GDP

CAB + FDI Net FDI

Flows*

Reserves

(US Bill.)*

Reserves CXP

cover (mo.)*

Bond Rating

Russia 4.0% 3.5% -9607 479.53 13.6 BBB

Brazil -2.3% -0.1% 36918 288.58 11.8 BBB-

India -2.9% -1.8% 18000 304.81 7.7 BBB-

Indonesia 3.6% 4.3% 10241 96.23 6.5 BB+

(Source: Fitch Ratings Sept 2011)

* = End 2010 figure


9/29

Worlds Largest Investors (by AUM)

1,3

1,8

4,2

24,6

24,7

29,9

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

ETF

Hedge Fund

Sovereign Wealth Fund

Insurance Fund

Mutual Fund

Pension Fund

and theyre chasing Investment Grade Countries & Instruments

(End of 2010 in USD Trillion)

Source: The City UK Research Oct-2011


10/29


11/29

and hows the stock market?


12/29

Performance of Indonesian Stocks2006 October 2011

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11

MSCI Emerging Market

MSCI Indonesia

MSCI Indonesia USD

MSCI Asia Pacific Ex Japan

MSCI World

July 2006 October 2011 Indonesian Stock Market outperforming

other markets including other emerging markets

Source: Bloomberg, Oct 2011


13/29

Jakarta Composite Index2002 11 November 2011

424.945

691.895

1,000.233

1,162.635

1,805.523

2,745.826

1,355.408

2,534.356

3,703.512

3,778.885

-

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

2,800

3,200

3,600

4,000

4,400

55.30%

52.08%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

86.98%

-50.64%

46.13%

20102011*

8.39% 62.82%

44.56%

16.24%

2.04%


14/29

Jakarta Composite Index2002 18 November 2011

424.945

691.895

1,000.233

1,162.635

1,805.523

2,745.826

1,355.408

2,534.356

3,703.512

3,754.500

-

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

2,800

3,200

3,600

4,000

4,400

55.30%

52.08%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

86.98%

-50.64%

46.13%

2010 2011*

8.39% 62.82%

44.56%

16.24%

1.38%


15/29

Indonesia among Emerging MarketsAs March 2011

CountryMSCI Emerging

Market

MSCI AC Asia

ex Japan

China 17.7% 25.0%

Brazil 16.0%

Korea 13.5% 19.1%

Taiwan 11.5% 16.3%

South Africa 7.4%

India 7.4% 10.4%

Russia 7.3%

Mexico 4.5%

Malaysia 2.9% 4.1%

Indonesia 2.3% 3.3%

Thailand 1.7% 2.4%

Poland 1.7%

CountryMSCI Emerging

Market

MSCI AC Asia

ex Japan

Chile 1.5%

Turkey 1.3%

Colombia 0.8%

Peru 0.6%

Phillipines 0.5% 0.7%

Hungary 0.4%

Egypt 0.4%

Czech Republic 0.4%

Morocco 0.2%

Hong Kong 11.8%

Singapore 6.9%


16/29

Top 20 in Market Capitalizationas 11 November 2011


17/29

Foreign Investor ActivitiesForeign Capital Flow 2006 18 November 2011

17,271

32,606

18,653

13,290

(1,160) (562)

1,8152,602

1,974

747

3,090

1,345925

(3,118)

1,794

3,839

20,982

430

(2,008)

4,922

1,524

(1,652)

4,4974,811

2,030

6,003

322

(2,515)

2,617

21,321

(4,009)

2,123

(2,266)

17,515

(253)

4,115 5,186

(8,449)

1,644

2,9462,769

2006 2007 2008 2009 Jan Feb M ar A pr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct N ov D ec 2010 Jan Feb M ar A pr M ay Jun Jul A ug Sep Oct N ov D ec 2011 Jan Feb Mar A pr M ay June July Aug Sept Oct N ov

k h


18/29

Stock OwnershipBased on Investor Nationalities

Institutions: Insurance, Mutual Fund, Pension Fund, Financial Institution, Corporate,Securities Company, Foundation

Source Data : Indonesia Central Securities Depository

*) Scriptless Stocks

Type of Investors Nationality Oct-11 2010 2009 2008

(Equity Only) (IDR Billion) % (IDR Billion) % (IDR Billion) % (IDR Billion) %

Local Investor 781,123 38.58% 701,519 37.20% 378,782 32.90% 211,532 32.16%

Individual 148,820 19.05% 124,143 17.70% 81,916 21.60% 38,237 18.08%

Institution 631,300 80.82% 575,943 82.10% 295,989 78.10% 172,791 81.69%

Others 1,003 0.13% 1,433 0.20% 877 0.20% 493 0.23%

Foreign Investor 1,243,492 61.42% 1,184,282 62.80% 772,572 67,1% 446,180 67.84%

Individual 24,035 1.93% 3,062 0.26% 1,773 0.20% 1,062 0.24%

Institution 920,628 74.04% 875,199 73.90% 440,248 57.00% 135,057 30.27%

Others (inc. Street Name) 298,830 24.03% 306,021 25.84% 330,551 42.80% 310,071 69.49%

TOTAL 2,024,615 1,885,801 1,151,354 657,712

k i li i d di l


19/29

Market Capitalization and Trading ValueBy Industry 18 November position

T l N I f Li d C i


20/29

Total Net Income of Listed CompaniesFinancial Statement Date: Dec 2000 Dec 2010

Tahun Net Income Change %

2000 (35.85)

2001 7.62 -121.25%

2002 47.63 525.34%

2003 38.11 -19.98%

2004 48.08 26.16%

2005 54.17 12.66%

2006 67.68 24.93%

2007 105.01 55.17%

2008 74.54 -29.02%

2009 123.20 65.29%

2010 170.73 38.58%

Total net income of listed companies in 2010 increased 38.58% compare to 2009

(35.85)

7.62

47.6338.11

48.0854.17

67.68

105.01

74.54

123.20

170.73

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

T 40 Li d C b N I


21/29

Top 40 Listed Company by Net IncomeFinancial Statement Date: Dec 2009 Dec 2010

2010 2009

1 ASII 14.37 10.04 43.09%

2 TLKM 11.54 11.33 1.81%

3 BBRI 11.47 7.31 56.98%

4 BMRI 9.22 7.16 28.83%

5 BBCA 8.48 6.81 24.56%

6 HMSP 6.42 5.09 26.22%

7 PGAS 6.24 6.23 0.17%

8 MPPA 5.80 0.30 1,833.32%

9 GGRM 4.15 3.46 19.98%

10 BBNI 4.10 2.48 65.13%

11 INCO 3.93 1.61 144.26%

12 UNTR 3.87 3.82 1.45%

13 SMGR 3.63 3.33 9.22%

14 UNVR 3.39 3.04 11.26%

15 INTP 3.22 2.75 17.41%

16 INDF 2.95 2.08 42.25%

17 EXCL 2.89 1.71 69.13%

18 BDMN 2.88 1.53 88.15%

19 MLPL 2.83 0.11 2,457.23%

20 BUMI 2.79 1.80 55.51%

Total of The 20 Stocks 114.18 81.97 39.30%

Total IDX 170.73 123.20 38.58%

No Code Listed Stock

Total Net Income

(Trilion Rp)Change

(%)

Astra International Tbk

Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk

Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk

Bank Central Asia Tbk

HM Sampoerna Tbk

Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk

Matahari Putra Prima Tbk

Gudang Garam Tbk

Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk

INCO Tbk

United Tractors Tbk

Multipolar Tbk

Bumi Resources Tbk

Semen Gresik (Persero) Tbk

Unilever Indonesia Tbk

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk

Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk

XL Axiata Tbk

Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk

T 40 Li t d C b N t I


22/29

Top 40 Listed Company by Net IncomeFinancial Statement Date: Dec 2009 Dec 2010

2010 2009

21 BNGA 2.55 1.57 62.50%

22 CPIN 2.21 1.61 37.05%

23 ADRO 2.21 4.37 -49.46%

24 AALI 2.02 1.66 21.45%

25 PTBA 2.01 2.73 -26.35%

26 ITMG 1.83 3.17 -42.09%

27 ANTM 1.68 0.60 178.57%

28 MLIA 1.57 1.44 9.20%

29 ADMF 1.47 1.21 21.07%

30 KLBF 1.29 0.93 38.46%

31 SMMA 1.28 0.70 82.52%

32 SMAR 1.26 0.75 68.41%

33 PNBN 1.26 0.92 37.43%

34 JSMR 1.19 0.99 20.23%

35 AUTO 1.14 0.77 48.54%

36 LSIP 1.03 0.71 46.06%37 BNLI 1.00 0.48 107.57%

38 JPFA 0.96 0.81 17.77%

39 MEGA 0.95 0.54 77.09%

40 TINS 0.95 0.31 202.13%

Total of The 40 Stocks 144.04 108.23 33.08%

Total IDX 170.73 123.20 38.58%

Total Net Income

(Trilion Rp)Change

(%)

No Code Listed Stock

Timah Tbk

Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk

Astra Otoparts Tbk

PP London Sumatera TbkBank Permata Tbk

JAPFA Comfeed Indonesia Tbk

Bank MEGA Tbk

Mulia Industrindo TbkAdira Dinamika Multi Finance Tbk

Kalbe Farma Tbk

Sinar Mas Multiartha Tbk

SMART Tbk

Bank Pan Indonesia Tbk

Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk

Adaro Energy Tbk

Astra Agro Lestari Tbk

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk

Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk

Aneka Tambang Tbk

Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk

N t I G th b d S t


23/29

Net Income Growth based on Sectors2009 compared to 2010

2,91%

20,31%

32,03%

37,38%

41,54%

46,26%

47,19%

49,90%

100,37%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

Infrastructure, Utilities,&

Transportation

Basic Industry and Chemical

Miscellaneous Industry

Consumer Goods Industry

Mining

Agriculture

Property, Real Estate and Building

Construction

Finance

Trade, Services, & Investment

T 20 i T di V l


24/29

Top 20 in Trading ValuesPeriod: 2011 - Year to Date

M t l F d i I d i


25/29

Mutual Fund in IndonesiaTotal Net Asset Value (NAV) September 2011: IDR 154.28 Trillion

(55,462)

35.89%

(41,368)

26.77%

(25,847)

16.73%

(19,595)

12.68%

(8,014)5.19% (3,550)

2.30%(448)

0.29%

(220)

0.14%

(025)

0.02%

Equity

Capital Protection Fund

Fixed Income

Mixed

Money Market

Sharia

ETF - Fixed Income

Index

ETF - Equity

Source: Bapepam-LK

A i St k E h L l Li t d C i


26/29

Asian Stock Exchange Local Listed CompaniesMore supply needed for Indonesia

250

433

542

772

812

927

947

1.377

1.472

1.803

2.019

2.284

2.306

5.102

Philipine (PSE)

Indonesia IDX *

Thailand (SET)

Singapore (SGX)

Taiwan (TSE)

China (Shanghai)

Malaysia (BM)

China (Shenzhen)

Hong Kong (HKEX)

Korea (KSE)

Australia (ASX)

Jepang (TSE)

NYSE Euronext (US)

India (BSE)

Source: World Federation of Exchanges

As End of October 2011

Market Capitali ation in Asia Pacific


27/29

Market Capitalization in Asia PacificOctober 2011

TSE : Tokyo Stock Exchange

SSE : Shanghai Stock Exchange

HKEX : Hong Kong Exchanges

BSE : Bombay Stock Exchange

ASX : Australia Stock Exchange

KRX : Korea Exchanges

SGX : Singapore Exchanges

BM : Bursa Malaysia

IDX : Indonesia Stock Exchange

SET : Stock Exchange of Thailand

PSE : Philippine Stock Exchange

Source: World Federation of Exchanges

TSE SSE HKEX ASX BSE KRX SGX BM IDX SET PSE

3,428

2,597

2,375

1,3391,281

1,068

592

405 388261

165

IDX Statistical Highlight


28/29

IDX Statistical Highlight2001-2011

1) Equity Trading Only 2) Includes: 2 ETFs 3) 11 November 2011

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 3)

COMPOSITE INDEX 392.036 424.945 691.895 1,000.23 1,162.64 1,805.52 2,745.83 1,355.41 2,534.36 3,703.51 3,754.500Number of Listed Issuers 316 331 333 331 336 344 3852) 3982) 4002) 4222) 4362)

Number of New Issuers 31 22 6 12 8 12 242) 19 13 23 19

Delisted Companies 2 7 4 14 3 4 8 6 11 1 5

Market Capitalization (Trill. Rp) 239.3 268.4 460.4 679.9 801.3 1,249.1 1,988.3 1,076.5 2,019.4 3,247.1 3,440.2

Market Capitalization (Bill. USD) 23.1 30.1 54.5 72.7 81.4 138.4 211.1 98.3 214.1 361.7 379.9

Trading Volume (Bill. Shares) 148.4 171.2 234.0 411.8 401.9 436.9 1,039.5 787.8 1,467.7 1,330.9 1,083.4

Trading Value (Trill. Rp) 97.5 120.8 125.4 247.0 406.0 445.7 1,050.2 1,064.5 975.1 1.176.2 1,120.1

Trading Value (Bill. USD) 9.4 13.6 14.8 26.4 41.3 49.4 113.4 112.1 96.2 129.78 128.33

Number of Trades (Thousand) 3,622 3,092 2,953 3,724 4,012 4,811 11,861 13,417 20,977 25,919 25,189

Number of Trading Days 246 245 242 241 243 242 246 240 241 245 218

AVERAGE DAILY TRADING:

Volume (Mill. Shares) 603.2 698.8 967.1 1,708.6 1,653.8 1,805.5 4,225.8 3,282.7 6,089.9 5,432.1 4,969.8

Value (Bill. Rp) 396.4 492.9 518.3 1,024.9 1,670.8 1,841.8 4,268.9 4,435.5 4,046.2 4,801.0 5,138.1

Value (Mill. US$) 38.3 55.4 61.4 109.6 169.8 204.1 460.9 467.2 399.2 529.7 588.7

Number of Transaction14,722 12,621 12,203

15,452 16,510 19,880 48,216 55,905 87,040105,709

115,547FUND RAISED FROM:

IPO (Trillion Rp) 1.10 1.12 8.18 2.14 3.55 3.00 16.87 24.39 3.85 29.68 15.48

Rights (Trillion Rp) 4.12 7.31 3.80 3.19 5.89 12.58 29.50 56.25 7.99 48.16 37.07

Warrant (Trillion Rp) 0.02 0.11 0.06 0.29 0.23 0.79 2.08 1.98 2.51 1.87 0.62

Total Fund Raised (Trillion Rp) 5.24 8.54 12.04 6.34 9.66 16.38 48.44 82.62 14.35 79.71 53.17


29/29

THANK YOU

[email protected]

materi investor summit 21 november-pak ito warsito

Documents