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BITS Pilani Pilani Campus BITS Pilani presentation Dr RAKHEE Department of Mathematics

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  • BITS Pilani Pilani Campus

    BITS Pilani presentation

    Dr RAKHEE Department of Mathematics

  • BITS Pilani Pilani Campus

    MATH F111 & AAOC C111 Probability and Statistics

  • BITS Pilani Pilani Campus

    Chapter 4

    Continuous Distribution

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Definition: A random variable is continuous if it can assume any real numbers and some interval (or intervals) of real numbers and the probability that it assume any specific value is 0 (zero).

    Continuous Random Variables

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Definition: Let X be a continuous random variable. A function f(x) is called continuous density (probability density function i.e. pdf ) iff integral converges.

    CONTINUOUS DENSITY (Probability density function )

    =

    1)(.2

    0f(x)1.

    dxxf

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    1.P[X = a] =0. 2. P[X = b] =0. 3. P[a X b] = P[ a X < b] = P[a < X b] = P[a < X < b] 4. P[a X b] = where a and b are real numbers. Area under the curve of f between x = a to x = b. TOTAL AREA IS ONE.

    Probability for Interval

    ;)(b

    a

    dxxf

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Let X be the continuous r.v. with density f(x). The cumulative distribution function (cdf) for X, denoted by F(X) , is defined by F(X) = P ( X x ) , all x =

    CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION

    x

    dttf )(

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    1. If X is a Continuous random variable, then F(x) is also a continuous function for all x.

    2. The F(x) is nondecreasing function.

    Note:

    PROBABILITY by using cdf F(x) P(a X b) = F(b) F(a). FIND f(x) from F: f(x) = dF(x)/dx = F(x)

    for all x.

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    0)()(lim

    )(lim)(

    ===

    =

    dttfdttf

    xFF

    x

    x

    x

    1)()(lim

    )(lim)(

    +

    +

    +

    ===

    =+

    dttfdttf

    xFF

    x

    x

    x

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Consider the density of X f (x ) = x / 6 ; 2 x 4 , = 0 ; e.w. (a) Find the cumulative distribution function. (b) Use cdf F, find P[2.5X 3], P[1 X3.5].

    EXERCISE 4.1, 9 PAGE 140

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    (a) cumulative density function

    4;1)(

    42);4(121

    261

    60)()(

    2;0)(

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    =

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Use cdf F, find P[2.5X 3], P[1X3.5].

    [ ]22917.0

    )45.2()43(121

    )5.2()3(]35.2[

    22

    =

    =

    = FFxP

    [ ]6875.0

    0)45.3(121

    )1()5.3(]5.31[

    2

    =

    =

    = FFxP

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    The Cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.) of a continuous random variable X is

    Determine and . Hence find the probability density function (p.d.f.).

    Example

    ( )

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    In parts (a) and (b) proposed cumulative distribution functions are given. In each case, find the density that would be associated with each, and decide whether it really does define a valid continuous density. If it does not, explain what property fails. (a) Consider the function F defined by F(x) = 0 ; x < -1, = x + 1 ; -1 x 0, = 1 ; x > 0.

    EXERCISE 4.1.14, PAGE 141

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Clearly f(x) 0 for all x. But F is cdf as

    >

    1 .

    . continue

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Clearly f(x) 0 for all x. But F is not cdf as

    0 02 0 1/ 2

    ( )1/ 2 1/ 2 10 1

    xx xdFf x

    xdxx

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    (5) (Continuous uniform distribution) A random variable X is said to be uniformly distributed over an interval (a, c) if its density is given by

    cxaac

    xf >

    ,01

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Secondly,

    11 =

    dxac

    c

    a(b) Sketch the graph of the uniform density.

    X=a X=c

    f(x)

    x

    1/(c-a)

  • ( ii ) Shade the area in the graph of part (b) that represents P[X (a + c)/2].

    X= a X= c

    f(x)

    x (a+c)/2

  • (c ) Find the probability pictured in part: ii

    (e) Let (l, m) and (d, f) be subintervals of (a, c) of equal length. What is the relationship between P[l X m] and P[d X f]

    Sol: Probability is same on equal length of interval.

    +

    =

    =

    +

    2

    5.012

    ca

    a

    dtac

    caXP

  • (10) Find the general expression for the cumulative uniform distribution for a random variable X over (a, c)

    cxxF

    cxaacax

    dsac

    xXPxF

    axxFx

    =

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    MEAN ,VARIANCE, S.D. & MGF (m.g.f.) 1. Mean = E [X] =

    where X is the c.r.v. with density f(x).

    EXPECTATION & DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS

    dxxxf )(

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    2. Let X be the c.r.v. with density f(x). Let H(x) be a random variable. The expected value of H(x) is defined as:

    provided is finite.

    ( )[ ]

    = dxxfxHXHE )()(

    dxxfxH )(|)(|

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    3. Var X = E[X2] (E[X])2 = 2 , where

    Variance is shape parameter in the sense that a random variable with small variance will have a compact density; one with a large variance will have a density that is rather spread out or flat.

    continue

    = dxxfXE )(x][ 22

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    4. m.g.f. = Moment Generating Function = E[ etX] = mX (t) =

    continue

    dxxfetx )(

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Let X denote the length in minutes of a long distance telephone conversation. The density for X is given by (a)Find the moment generation function

    mX(t).

    Section 4.2, page 141, 17

    0,101)( 10 >=

    xexf

    x

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    (b) Use mX(t) to find the average length of such call.

    (c) Find variance and standard deviation for X.

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Assume that the increase in demand for electric power in millions of kilowatt hours over the next 2 years in particular area is a random variable whose density is given by f(x) = (1/64 ) x3 ; 0 < x < 4 , = 0 ; e.w. . (a) Verify that this is a valid density.

    Exercise 4.2.24 page 143

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    (b) Find the expression for the cumulative distribution function F for X, and use it to find the probability that the demand will be at most 2 million kilowatt hours.

    (c) If the area only has the capacity to generate an additional 3 million kilowatt hours, what is the probability that demand will exceed supply?

    (d) Find the average increase in demand.

    continue

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    MGF of uniform distribution random variable on (a, c) :

    0,e1

    1][

    tc

    =

    =

    tace

    t

    dxac

    eeE

    ta

    c

    a

    txtX

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Use definition to find mean and variance can be found.

    12)()(

    2)(

    2acXVar

    caXE

    =

    +=

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    If a pair of coils were placed around a homing pigeon and magnetic field was applied that reverses the earths field, it is thought that the bird would become disoriented. Under these circumstances it is just as likely to fly in one direction as in any other.

    Section 4.1, page no 139, 6

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Home (0)

    Pigeon

    is uniformly distributed over the interval [0, 2]. a) Find the density for .

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    (b) Sketch the graph of the density. (c) Shade the area corresponding to the

    probability that a bird will orient within /4 radians of home, and find this area using plane geometry.

    (d) Find the probability that a bird will orient within /4 radians of home by integrating the density over the appropriate region(s).

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    (e) If 10 birds are released independently and at least 7 orient within /4 radians of home, would you suspect that perhaps the coil are not disorienting the birds to the extent expected? Explain, based on the probability of this occurring.

    (f) Find mean, variance for .

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Example : A random variable X with density

    0a,b,x

    ,)bx(a

    a1)x(f 22>

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Cauchy distribution with density

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    dxx1

    x1dxx1x1

    02

    0

    2

    ++

    +

    =

    Multiply and divide by 2, we get

    +

    +

    +

    =0

    20

    2 |1|ln21|1|ln

    21 xx

    which does not exist, as )ln(

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    A random variable X with density function = 0 , for x 0, is said to have a Gamma Distribution with parameters and ,for x > 0, > 0, > 0.

    GAMMA DISTRIBUTION

    /1

    )(1)( xexxf

    =

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Definition : The function defined by is called the Gamma function. Properties : 1. (1) = 1 2. () = ( -1) ( -1 ); where is the +ve

    real number. 3. (n) = (n-1)! (Factorial of n-1), n = 1,2,3. 4. (1/2)=

    Gamma Function

    ,0,0;)( 10

    >>=

    zdzze z

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    1. (1) = 1 Proof: By definition of Gamma function, we

    have

    1

    ,1,0;)1(

    0

    0

    0

    ==

    =>=

    dze

    zdzze

    z

    z

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    2. () = ( -1) ( -1 ); where is the +ve real number.

    Proof:

    by integrating by parts, we have

    ,0,0;)( 10

    >>=

    zdzze z

    [ ] dzzeze zz 1)1(0

    01 )1()(

    +=

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    01lim)!1(

    )2)(1(lim

    )1(lim

    lim)(lim

    3

    2

    11

    =

    =

    =

    =

    zz

    zz

    zz

    zz

    z

    z

    e

    ez

    ez

    ezze

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Thus, Since,

    [ ])1()1(

    )1()( 1)1(0

    01

    =

    +=

    dzzeze zz

    )!1()(.3 =

    )!1()1()...2)(1(...)1()1()(

    ====

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    ==

    0

    21

    21 dzez z

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    A random variable X with density function is said to have a Gamma Distribution with parameters and ,for x > 0, > 0, > 0.

    GAMMA DISTRIBUTION

    ( )

    >>>

    =

    wiseother

    xexxf

    x

    ,0

    0,0,0,)(

    1)(

    /1

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    To check the necessary and sufficient condition of pdf:

    0xallfor0)x(f >

    =

    ===

    =

    0

    11

    0

    /1

    )(1

    ,

    )(1)(,

    dtet

    txanddtdxtxLet

    dxexdxxfFurther

    t

    x

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    pdfaisxfHence

    ezdxxf z

    )(

    1)(

    )(0

    1 =

    =

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Let X be a Gamma r.v. with parameters and . Then

    MEAN, VARIANCE AND MGF OF GAMMA FUNCTION

    1)exp()(

    1

    0

    1 =

    dxxx

    1. m.g.f. = mX(t)=(1- t)- , t < 1/ 2. E[X] = Mean = X = 3. Var(X) = 2 = 2

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Proof:

    )1(

    )1()1(

    )(1

    )(1

    0

    ) 1(1

    /1

    tdzdxand

    tzxxtzlet

    dxex

    dxexe

    xt

    xtx

    =

    =

    =

    =

    =

    ][)(, txX eEtmdefBy =

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    =

    =

    0

    1

    1

    0

    )1()(1

    )1()

    1(

    )(1

    dzezt

    tdze

    tz

    z

    z

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    ==

    =

    =

    =

    0

    1

    0

    )()1(

    )(][

    t

    tX

    t

    tmdtdXE

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    20

    2

    22

    )1(

    ))((][

    +=

    ==t

    X tmdtdXE

    222

    22

    )()1(][][)(

    =+=

    == XEXEXVar

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    and both play a role in determining the mean and the variance of the random variable.

    Graphs of Gamma Densities are not symmetric and are located entirely to the right of the vertical axis.

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    0

    0.05

    0.1

    0.15

    0.2

    0.25

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

    Gamma(1, 4)

    Gamma(2, 3)

    Gamma(20, 0.5)

    f(x)

    x

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    For > 1, the maximum value of the density occurs at the point x = ( 1).

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    0

    0.05

    0.1

    0.15

    0.2

    0.25

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

    Gamma(1, 4)

    Gamma(2, 3)

    Gamma(20, 0.5)

    f(x)

    x

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Exercise 4.3 (Page No: 143)

    Let X be a gamma random variable with = 3 and = 4

    (i) What is the expression for the density for X

    0,128

    1

    0,4!21

    )(1)(

    42

    423

    1

    >=

    >=

    =

    xex

    xexexxf

    x

    xx

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    (ii) What is the moment generating function for X

    41,)41()1()( 3

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    In Gamma Distribution, put = 1, we get

    Exponential Distribution

    >>

    =

    elsewhere

    xexf

    x

    ,0

    0,0,1)(

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    0

    0.05

    0.1

    0.15

    0.2

    0.25

    0.3

    1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19

    x

    = 3

    f(x)

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    For the above function Mean = = , var (X) = 2,

    mX(t)=(1- t)-1 , t < 1/

    Cont

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    The c.d.f. of exponential distribution with Parameter is given by

    0 x1

    111)(

    0

    0

    0

    >==

    =

    =

    xxs

    xs

    x s

    ee

    edsexF

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    The c.d.f. of exponential distribution

    >

    ==

    Here, we have that the first occurrence of the event will take place after time w only if number of occurrences in the time interval [0,w] is zero. Let X be the number of occurrences of the event in this time interval [0,w].

    Proof:

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    X is a Poisson random variable with parameter w. Thus,

    ww

    eweXPwWP

    =

    =

    ==>

    !0)(

    ]0[][0

    wewWPwF =>= 1][1)(

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Since, in the continuous case, the derivative of the cumulative distribution function is the density

    wewfwF == )()(

    1 =

    This is exactly density for an exponential random variable with

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    A particular nuclear plant releases a detectable amount of radioactive gases twice a month on average. Find the probability that at least 3 monthswill elapse before the release of first detectible emission. What is the average time one must wait to observe the first emission?

    Section 4.3, page no 144,34

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    0,2)(, 2 >= xexfTherefore x

    Let X be time elapsed before the release of the first detectable emission a then X is an exponential distribution with = 1/2

    Solution :

    ,)1(1)3(1]3[ 66 ===> eeFXP

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    A computer centre maintains a telephone consulting service to trouble shoot for its users. The service is available for 9:00 to 5:00 each working day. Past experience shows number of calls received per day is a Poisson distribution with parameter 50. For a given day find the probability that first call will be received (i) before 10:00 a.m. (ii) after 3:00 p.m.

    Example

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    A random variable X with density function is said to have a Gamma Distribution with parameters and ,for x > 0, > 0, > 0.

    ( )

    >>>

    =

    wiseother

    xexxf

    x

    ,0

    0,0,0,)(

    1)(

    /1

    GAMMA RANDOM VARIABLE

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    If a random variable X has a gamma distribution with parameters = 2 and = /2, then X is said to have a chi-square (2) distribution with degrees of Freedom and denoted by , is a positive integer.

    Chi-square distribution

    2

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    0,2

    2

    1)( 2/1

    2

    2/>

    =

    xexxf x

    E[ ] = , Var[ ] = 2

    = 2 and = /2,

    2

    2

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    1for =

    x

    f(x)

    ( )

    >

    =

    wiseother

    xexxf

    x

    ,0

    ,0,2)2/1(

    1)(

    2/1)2/1(

    2/1

    Chi square distribution

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    2=for

    Chi square distribution

    0,21)( 2/ >= xexf x

    0,2)

    2(

    1)( 2/1

    2

    2/>

    =

    xexxf x

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    x

    f(x)

    2=forChi square distribution

    0,21)( 2/ >= xexf x

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    x

    f(x)

    -2.08E-16

    0.05

    0.1

    0 5 10 15 20 25

    for = 10

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    We do not have explicit formula for CDF F of X2 . Instead values are tabulated on page no. 695-696 as below (F occurs in margin here, and related value of r.v. inside the table):

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    If F is CDF for Chi square random variable Having 5 degrees of freedom F(1.61) = 0.1, F(4.35) = 0.5

    P[X2 < t]

    F 0.100 0.250 0.500

    5 1.61 2.67 4.35 6 2.20 3.45 5.35

    7 2.83 4.25 6.35

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    For 0 < r < 1, we denote by , for a chi-square r.v. with degrees of freedom, a unique number such that P[X2 ] = r

    Probability to the right of is r.

    2r

    2r

    Another notation

    2r

    for exampleP[X210 ] = 0.05 2

    05.0

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    x

    f(x)

    0

    0.05

    0.1

    0 5 10 15 20 25

    P[X210 ] = 0.05 2

    05.0

    Probability to the right of is r. 2r

    0.05

    = 1 - P[X210 ] = 0.95 2

    95.0

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    P[X2 t] F 0.90 0.95

    10 16.0 18.3 11 17.3 19.7 21.9

    12 18.5 21.0 23.3

    0.975

    20.5

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    x

    f(x)

    -2.08E-16

    0.05

    0.1

    0 5 10 15 20 25

    P[X210 ] = 0.05 2

    05.0

    Probability to the right of is r. 2r

    3.18205. =

    0.05

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    38. Consider a chi squared random variable with 15 degrees of freedom. (i) What is the mean of ?215X

    Sol: Chi square distribution is Gamma with = /2 & = 2, Mean = = =15 and 2 = 2 = 30

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    otherwise 0

    0,2)2/15(

    1)(

    ,2/,2var

    2/1)2/15(2/15

    2

    =

    >

    =

    ==

    xexxf

    hencewithiablerandomis

    x

    Sol:

    (ii) What is the expression for the density for ?215X

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    (iii) What is the expression for the moment Generating function for

    215X

    Sol: 2/1,)21()1()( 2/15

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    P[X2 < t] F 0.005 0.010 0.900

    15 4.60 5.23 22.3 16 5.14 5.81 23.5

    17 5.70 6.41 24.8

    .025

    6.26

    10.0900.01]3.22[1]3.22[ 215

    215

    ==

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    875.0025.0900.0)26.6()3.22(]3.2226.6[ 215

    ===

    FFXP

    ]3.2226.6[ Find (v) 215 XP

    P[X2 < t] F 0.005 0.010 0.900

    15 4.60 5.23 22.3 16 5.14 5.81 23.5

    17 5.70 6.41 24.8

    .025

    6.26

    7.56

    6.91

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Sol. P[X215 > 2r] = r.

    freedom of degree 150.25205.0 for=

    P[X215 > 20.05] = 0.05.

    P[X2 < t] F 0.005 0.010 0.950

    15 4.60 5.23 25.0

    .025

    6.26

    (vi) Find 20.05, & 20.01 for 15 degree of freedom

    P[X215 20.05] = 0.95.

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    6.302 01.0 =

    P[X215 > 2r] = r. P[X215 > 20.01] = 0.01.

    P[X2 < t] F 0.005 0.010 0.990

    15 4.60 5.23 30.6

    .025

    6.26

    P[X215 20.01] = 0.99.

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    A random variable X with density f(x) is said to have normal distribution with parameters and > 0, where f(x) is given by:

    4.4 The Normal Distribution

    ( )

    .0);,(,,21)(

    2

    2

    2 >=

    xexfx

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    =

    -

    1f(x)dx (ii)

    ),(-x 0)()( xfi

    =

    ==

    =

    -

    21

    -

    21

    2

    -

    21

    2

    22

    2

    21

    21

    let

    121

    dzedxe

    dzdxzx

    dxeproveTo

    zx

    x

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    =

    0

    21

    -

    21 22

    212

    21 dzedze

    zz

    =

    =

    ==

    +

    0

    )(21

    0

    0

    21

    0

    21

    0

    21

    0

    21

    22

    22

    22

    dxdye

    dyedxeII

    Idzedze

    yx

    yx

    zz

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus 2

    lim

    lim

    2/

    0

    2/

    0

    0

    )(212/

    0

    2

    2

    =

    =

    =

    Rw

    R

    R r

    R

    ddwe

    rdrde

    +

    0

    )(21

    0

    22

    dxdyeyx

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    2I .. =ei

    12

    2

    212

    21

    0

    21

    -

    21 22

    ==

    =

    dzedze

    zz

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Mean and Standard deviation for Normal distribution

    Theorem: Let X be a normal random variable with parameters and . Then is the mean of X and is its standard deviation.

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    The density Curves

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    Cumulative Distribution Function

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    Standard Normal Distribution

    Theorem: Let X be normal with mean and standard deviation . The variable

    is standard normal. Z has mean 0 and standard deviation 1.

    =XZ

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    ),(,21)( 2

    2

    =

    zezfz

    Standard Normal Distribution

    dze

    dzzfzZPzF

    z z

    z

    Z

    =

    ==

    2

    2

    21

    )()()(

    The probability density function is given by

    The corresponding distribution function is given by

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    ( )

    ,21)()(

    2

    2

    2 dsexXPxFx s

    ==

    dzzzsLet =+==

    ds s

    ( )zFdzexF Z

    xz

    =

    =

    =

    -xZP 21)( 2

    2

  • Rajiv

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Moment Generating Function

    21

    21][)(

    2

    2

    2

    2

    dze

    dzeeeEtm

    zzt

    zztZt

    Z

    =

    ==

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    =+

    +=

    2)(

    2222

    2

    222222 tzttttzzzzt

    Let z - t = w dz = dw

    222

    222

    21)(

    twt

    Z edweetm ==

    21)( 2

    )(

    2

    22

    dzeetmtzt

    Z

    =

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    Moment Generating Function

    Let Z be normally distributed with parameters = 0 and = 1, then the moment generating function for Z is

    2

    2

    )(t

    Z etm =

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    Let X be normally distributed with parameters and , then the moment generating function for X is given by

    Moment Generating Function

    2

    2)(

    )Zt(Xt

    22

    22

    ][

    ][e]E[e )(

    +

    +

    =

    ==

    ==

    tt

    ttZtt

    X

    e

    eeeEe

    Etm

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    Mean and Variance for Normal r.v.

    2

    22222

    22

    02

    22

    0

    E[X]-]E[X)(

    )(]E[X and

    )(][

    =

    +==

    +==

    ===

    =

    =

    XVar

    tmdtd

    tmdtdXEMean

    tX

    tX

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    =

    aFcF ZZc)XP(a

    ),N( is X If(i)

    )(1)(F )( Z zFzii Z=

    3.5z if 1)(F -3.5z if 0)(F )(

    Z

    Z

    zziii

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  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Using table, find the values of (i) P[Z 1.31] (ii) P[Z < 1.31] (iii) P[Z = 1.31] (iv) P[Z > 1.31] (v) P[-1.305 Z 1.43] (vi) z .10 (vii) z .90 (viii) The point z such that P(-z Z z) = 0.9

    Example

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    dzedzzfzZPzFz zz

    Z

    === 2

    2

    21)()()(

    z

    1.4

    0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04

    1.3 .9032 .9049 .9066 .9082 .9099

    .9192 .9207 .9222 .9236 .9251

    (i) P[Z 1.31] = .9049 (ii) P[Z < 1.31] = .9049

    (i) P[Z 1.31] (ii) P[Z < 1.31]

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    dzedzzfzZPzFz zz

    Z

    === 2

    2

    21)()()(

    z

    1.4

    0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04

    1.3 .9032 .9049 .9066 .9082 .9099

    .9192 .9207 .9222 .9236 .9251

    (iv) P[Z > 1.31] = 1 - P[Z 1.31] = 1- 0.9049

    (iii) P[Z = 1.31] (iv) P[Z > 1.31]

    (iii) P[Z = 1.31] = 0

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    z

    1.4

    0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04

    1.3 .9032 .9049 .9066 .9082 .9099

    .9192 .9207 .9222 .9236 .9251

    (v) P[-1.305 Z 1.43]

    P[-1.305 Z 1.43] = F(1.43) - F(-1.305) = 0.9236 (1 F(1.305)) = 0.9236 1+(0.9032 + 0.9049)/2) = 0.82765

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    (vi) z .10 (vii) z .90

    (vi) P(Z zr ) = r P(Z z.10 ) = 0.10 P(Z < z.10 ) = 0.90 z.10 = 1.28

    z

    1.4

    0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09

    1.2 .9015 .8997

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    (vii) z .90 = ? (viii) The point z such that P(-z Z z) = 0.9 P(-z Z z) = F(z) - F(-z) =2F(z) 1 = 0.9 i.e. F(z) = 0.95

    z

    1.4

    0.04 0.05

    1.6 0.9505 0.9495

    z = 1.645

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    X is normally distributed and the mean of X is 12 and standard deviation is 4. (i) Find P(X 10), P(X 10), P(0 X 12) (ii) Find r, where P(X > r) = 0.24 (iii) Find a and b, where P(a < X< b) = 0.50 and P(X > b) = 0.25

    Example

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    If X is normal random variable with P(X 35) = 0.07 & P(X 63) = 0.89 Find mean & standard deviation of X.

    Example

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    Most galaxies take the form of a flatten disc, with the major part of the light coming from this very thin fundamental plane. The degree of flattening differs from galaxy to galaxy. In the Milky Way Galaxy most gases are concentrated near the center of the fundamental plane. Let X denote the perpendicular distance from this center to a gaseous mass. X is normally distributed with mean 0 and standard deviation 100 parsecs. (A parsec is equal to approximately 19.2 trillion miles.)

    Section 4.4, page no 145, 41

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    (a) Sketch a graph of the density for X. Indicate on this graph the probability that a gaseous mass is located within 200 parsecs of the center of the fundamental plane. Find this probability.

    (b) Approximately what percentage of the gaseous masses are located more than 250 parsecs from the center of the plane?

    (c) What distance has the property that 20% of the gaseous masses are at least this far from the fundamental plane?

    (d) What is the moment generating function for X?

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    The positive random variable Y is said to have a log-normal distribution, if logeY is normally distributed. That is,

    logeY ~ N(,)=X

    Log-Normal Distribution

    & are not mean & standard deviations of Log-normal random variable.

    PresenterPresentation Notes

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  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Let X be normal with mean and variance 2. Let G denote the cumulative distribution for Y = eX and let F denote the cumulative distribution for X. Show that (i) G(y) = F(lny) (ii) G(y) =F(lny)/y (iii) Find density of Y

    Section 4.4, Problem 45/ p 146

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    .1)(ln

    ln)(ln)(ln)(

    yyF

    dyydyF

    dyydF

    dyydG

    =

    ==

    a) G(y) = P(Y y) = P(eX y) = P(X ln y) = F(ln y) b)

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    ( )

    .0);,(,

    ,21)ln()(

    ln2 2

    2

    >

    ==

    x

    dxeyXPyGy x

    ( )

    dwew

    yG

    wx

    y w

    =

    ===

    0

    2ln

    x

    2

    2

    121)(

    ,w

    dwdx ,ew ,ln

    c) Now X ~ N(,). Therefore,

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    ( )

    .other wise 0

    0,);,(,2

    1)(2

    2

    2ln

    =

    >=

    yey

    ygy

    Hence, the density for Y is given by

    ( )

    otherwise 0

    0y , 121 2

    2

    2ln

    =

    >

    =

    y

    eydy

    dG

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    Let Y denote the diameter in millimeters of styrofoam pellets used in packing. Assume that Y has a log-normal distribution with parameter = 0.8, = 0.1. (i) Find the probability that a randomly

    selected pellet has a diameter that exceeds 2.7 mm

    (ii) Find two values of Y such that probability is approximately 0.95 between these values?

    Problem 46

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    P(Y > 2.7) = P(exp(X) > 2.7) = P(X > ln(2.7))

    (i) Find the probability that a randomly selected pellet has a diameter that exceeds 2.7 mm

    0.02680.9732-1 )93.1(1)93.1(

    1.08.)7.2ln(-XP

    ===>=

    >

    FZP

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    P[y1 < Y < y2] = 0.95

    (ii)

    95.01.0

    8.ln1.0

    8.ln

    95.01.0

    8.ln-X1.0

    8.lnP

    21

    21

    =

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    0.95 0.025 0.025

    z0.025 z0.975

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    025.02

    975.01

    21

    1.08.0ln

    1.08.0ln

    95.01.0

    8.0ln1.0

    8.0lnP

    zy

    zy

    yZy

    =

    =

    =

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    707.2,96.11.0

    8.0ln

    829.1,96.11.0

    8.0ln

    2025.02

    1975.01

    ===

    ===

    yzy

    yzy

  • BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

    Thank You

    BITS Pilani presentationMATH F111 & AAOC C111Probability and StatisticsSlide Number 3Continuous Random VariablesCONTINUOUS DENSITY (Probability density function ) Probability for IntervalCUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION Slide Number 8Slide Number 9EXERCISE 4.1, 9 PAGE 140Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13EXERCISE 4.1.14, PAGE 141Slide Number 15. continueSlide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22EXPECTATION & DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERSSlide Number 24continuecontinueSlide Number 27Slide Number 28Exercise 4.2.24 page 143continueSlide Number 31Slide Number 32Slide Number 33Slide Number 34Slide Number 35Slide Number 36Slide Number 37Slide Number 38Slide Number 39GAMMA DISTRIBUTIONGamma FunctionSlide Number 42Slide Number 43Slide Number 44Slide Number 45Slide Number 46GAMMA DISTRIBUTIONSlide Number 48Slide Number 49MEAN, VARIANCE AND MGF OF GAMMA FUNCTIONSlide Number 51Slide Number 52Slide Number 53Slide Number 54Slide Number 55Slide Number 56Slide Number 57Slide Number 58Slide Number 59Slide Number 60Slide Number 61Exponential DistributionSlide Number 63ContSlide Number 65Slide Number 66Slide Number 67Slide Number 68Slide Number 69Slide Number 70Slide Number 71Slide Number 72Slide Number 73Slide Number 74Slide Number 75Slide Number 76Slide Number 77Slide Number 78Slide Number 79Slide Number 80Slide Number 81Slide Number 82Slide Number 83Slide Number 84Slide Number 85Slide Number 86Slide Number 87Slide Number 88Slide Number 89Slide Number 90Slide Number 91Slide Number 92Slide Number 934.4 The Normal DistributionSlide Number 95Slide Number 96Slide Number 97Slide Number 98Slide Number 99Slide Number 100Slide Number 101Slide Number 102Standard Normal DistributionSlide Number 104Slide Number 105Slide Number 106Slide Number 107Slide Number 108Moment Generating FunctionSlide Number 110Slide Number 111Slide Number 112Slide Number 113Slide Number 114Slide Number 115Slide Number 116Slide Number 117Slide Number 118Example Slide Number 120Slide Number 121Slide Number 122Log-Normal DistributionSlide Number 124Section 4.4, Problem 45/ p 146a) G(y) = P(Y y) = P(eX y) = P(X ln y) = F(ln y)b)Slide Number 127Hence, the density for Y is given by Problem 46(i) Find the probability that a randomly selected pellet has a diameter that exceeds 2.7 mmSlide Number 131Slide Number 132Slide Number 133Slide Number 134Slide Number 135