matthew tyler - financial assurance technical memo on polymet sdeis
TRANSCRIPT
-
7/22/2019 Matthew Tyler - Financial Assurance Technical Memo on PolyMet SDEIS
1/20
1
TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM F A F
B E A F
& C ' DE
P B: M
P C F
PO BO 511 F, MN, 55603.
M 12, 2014
1.0
M M . I C F F,M L C. I M.
P M '
,
.
1.1
I , ,
. I ' E F
C B P C 2010. M
, , , I E A
2008.
I 8 , , . M
.
A, I F C L C J 2011. I
, I , , $600,000
. I L C' C P P (CPP). CPP
,
F ' F D (FD) .
M , I L C
$3,000,000 F E
M A (FEMA).
-
7/22/2019 Matthew Tyler - Financial Assurance Technical Memo on PolyMet SDEIS
2/20
2
2.0 F
I NM P DEI, PM M I.
. DEI ,
500 200 , DEI
. I , " ." (DEI D 2013, . E11,
E24, 57).
, . C
, .
,
M
.
L F (LF),
F, ,
. A ,
,
.
. ,
. I ,
.
,
. ,
,
.
I L F
500 . H,
:
",
.
155 .
237 .
500
."( C A C E A, PM
DEI A C, . 152)
-
7/22/2019 Matthew Tyler - Financial Assurance Technical Memo on PolyMet SDEIS
3/20
3
3.0 B F
L F
,
(O&M) . F,
O&M O&M .
M, :
F() = F()+ F()* () C()+ I()*C() = F() * (1 + ()) C()* (1+ I()) (EQ 1)
F()
F() 1
C() PM' O&M
C(1)
PM' O&M 1
() (.. 7%)
I() (.. 2%)
F , (F0) $100 , O&M (C0) $5
, (I1) 2%, (1) 7%,
F ( ) :
F1= F(0) * (1 + (1)) C(0)* (1+ I(1)) = $100 * (1 + 0.07) $5 * (1 + 0.02) = $101.9
A 2,
:
F2= F() * (1 + (2)) C(1)* (1+ I(2)) = $101.9 * (1 + 0.07) $5.1 * (1 + 0.02) = $103.83
N F . F
,
. H,
,
, .
D , I .
3.1 F
I F 500
, DEI.
500
O&M .
' O&M .
-
7/22/2019 Matthew Tyler - Financial Assurance Technical Memo on PolyMet SDEIS
4/20
4
F O&M ,
50,000 . E
O&M , E 1 500
, .
4 5. , .
100,000 .
( C 2013)
A C.
4.0 E E F
I L F
M B
I (MBI). MBI
M. O
,
L F P
F E F. B
(MBI 2013). H, ,
P F
.
P F
, , 50%
. (MBI 2013). I , P
F L
F,
.
A P
F 1987 2013
M
. MBI
19982013 (MBI 2013). P
F 19871997
N B
(1998).
1:
F 19872013
1987 6.9% 2001 2.6%
1988 7.2% 2002 6.2%
1989 16.1% 2003 6.3%
1990 6.3% 2004 10.2%
1991 10.3% 2005 6.5%
1992 15.1% 2006 4.8%
1993 6.1% 2007 13.4%
1994 3.1% 2008 3.6%
1995 14% 2009 9.3%
1996 5.5% 2010 12.3%
1997 8.2% 2011 17%
1998 17.8% 2012 6.4%
1999 14% 2013 10.8%
2000 6.1%
M 7.278%
D 7.136%
-
7/22/2019 Matthew Tyler - Financial Assurance Technical Memo on PolyMet SDEIS
5/20
5
1 F 1,
. A 7.3%,
.
5.0 E E C
C
P I (CPI), B L
. H,
CPI. I
P P I
(PPI) B L
. PPI "
"
. ( BL, 2014).
A PPI
. H,
PPI " "
( ID PC213114213114) 19852013
. A
A '
.
2 F 2, .
1.75%. I,
1, 3.929.
.
6.0 F D
I , (..
G ) . 1900,
B
(1973) M (1973).
2: A
19862013
1986 0.10% 2000 9.32%
1987 0.50% 2001 7.89%
1988 1.89% 2002 1.45%
1989 4.59% 2003 0.17%
1990 1.31% 2004 0.78%
19910.09%
200511.03%1992 0.09% 2006 4.31%
1993 2.21% 2007 2.14%
1994 0.09% 2008 6.86%
1995 0.09% 2009 1.89%
1996 0.99% 2010 0%
1997 3.82% 2011 4.38%
1998 4.62% 2012 6.48%
1999 1.64% 2013 4.84%
M 1.753%
D 3.929%
-
7/22/2019 Matthew Tyler - Financial Assurance Technical Memo on PolyMet SDEIS
6/20
6
, ,
.
A (..
)
(F 3). A
(F 4).
.
H,
(.. )
, F 3.
.
.
1960 (M 1962, 1963,1967). I 2008
,
,
(.. F 2009, H &
P. 2009).
I , (
) M (1967) F (2009). ,
.
.
C,
. P ,
. ,
. .
-
7/22/2019 Matthew Tyler - Financial Assurance Technical Memo on PolyMet SDEIS
7/20
7
7.0 A & C
A NM DEI $3.5$6
(O&M) (DEI, . 3138),
. NM ,
, NM O&M .
7.1 DE C
PM
: , . A
DEI ,
M D P.
M
" 600 . 300 ."
( 2013 168).
P
" 2000
, 3500 ." ( 2013, . 112)
40,
. ,
.
A ,
. ,
DEI.
N,
. F
.
7.2 C E
. C, L .
4000 A 1
P C. I B E M
M NPDE M N P II (B 2011).
-
7/22/2019 Matthew Tyler - Financial Assurance Technical Memo on PolyMet SDEIS
8/20
8
. A
, ,
, .
600 C 1E
L B C (B 2013). B E C E
PM 2010 MPCA C E. A
, NM .
: (1)
, (2) (OP), (3)
(ICCP) .
. A ,
.
3 O&M
. C O&M B(2011). I , O&M ,
.
B (2011) B (2013) A A & B.
3 . AO&M (AA 2007). F
,
, , .
,
, , .
3: C E
E A.
& F &
&
E C C C ($) % C C ($) % C C ($)
B 2013 E +C 600 $19,729,392 $1,492,573 7.57% $1,435,636 7.28% $56,939
B 2013
EP +
C 600 $23,969,992 $1,579,447 6.59% $1,509,698 6.30% $69,750
B 2013
ICCP + O
+C 600 $14,817,750 $1,901,833 12.83% $1,346,820 9.09% $555,014
M $1,657,951
B 2011 A #1 4000 $40,462,964 $5,383,000 13.30% $4,592,000 11.35% $791,000
B 2011 A #2 4000 $39,802,164 $4,613,000 11.59% $3,920,000 9.85% $693,000
B 2011 A #3 4000 $40,628,164 $5,215,000 12.84% $4,466,000 10.99% $749,000
M $5,070,333
-
7/22/2019 Matthew Tyler - Financial Assurance Technical Memo on PolyMet SDEIS
9/20
9
N
NM DEI.
NM . ,
.
7.3 A C E DE
B(2011)
NM ( ) ,
B (2013) NM
. , NM
O&M O&M B (2011) O&M
B (2013).
A, O&M NM P ( )
B (2013) .
G , AA (2007)
:
C= C* (/ )0.80
(EQ 2)
: C=
C=
= ,
=
.
O&M :
= C* + (/ ) * C (EQ 3)
= O&M
= O&M C= O&M .
C, ,,
O&M ,
(..
). I , O&M
. I ,
-
7/22/2019 Matthew Tyler - Financial Assurance Technical Memo on PolyMet SDEIS
10/20
-
7/22/2019 Matthew Tyler - Financial Assurance Technical Memo on PolyMet SDEIS
11/20
11
8.0 F
H NM O&M
,
3.
6. F 5 500 O&M 6.
6: E B
F A 500
& A C
& C F A
E & > 0.95* > 0.99*
L $6,105,573 $10,684,753 500 $333,000,000 $404,000,000
M $7,788,515 $13,629,901 500 $423,000,000 $513,000,000
H $10,660,735 $18,656,286 500 $579,000,000 $694,000,000
* P , (.. 95% 99%)
-
7/22/2019 Matthew Tyler - Financial Assurance Technical Memo on PolyMet SDEIS
12/20
12
9.0 C
PM
DEI
L . . I
O&M $6.1 $10.6 .
L , NM
P, .
L F
500 $333 , $500 .
L F $50$200
DEI (DEI, . 3138). DEI
, ,
.
N ,
$383$700 .
10.0
DEI ,
.
B , NM FEI
.
NM FEI
.
D 4060% , FEI .
F .
F .
-
7/22/2019 Matthew Tyler - Financial Assurance Technical Memo on PolyMet SDEIS
13/20
13
A A (AA), 2007. O N, 2
., M P M46.
B E C. 2011. 1
. .P D, I.,M M, LLC. J 2011.
B E C. 2013. . 026
. P C E LLC, PM M I. J 2013.
B, F M . 1973. P O C L.
J P E. 81(3):637654.
F, J C. 2009. A D E. P.D.
. D: I.
H, M, C P. 2009. F E, F D.
E C 2009, 34043435
M, B. B. 1962. . NC87, IBM
.
M, B. B. 1963. C P, C 15, C
(1964), . 307332. M.I.. P.
M, B. B. 1967. , , ,
. J B 40, 393413.
M, C. 1973. . B J E
M . 4(1):141183.M B I (MBI). 2013. A 2013. M
B I. . P, MN. ://....
N, J B. 1998. L: A P E .
M O L A. #9805. . P, MN.
PM M (PM). 2013. , 1
, 12. M 8, 2013.
PM M (PM). 2013. , 2
, . M 1, 2013.
C (2013). : A . F C, , A. IBN 3900051070. ://../.
-
7/22/2019 Matthew Tyler - Financial Assurance Technical Memo on PolyMet SDEIS
14/20
14
A A: 2325 B (2013)
-
7/22/2019 Matthew Tyler - Financial Assurance Technical Memo on PolyMet SDEIS
15/20
15
-
7/22/2019 Matthew Tyler - Financial Assurance Technical Memo on PolyMet SDEIS
16/20
16
-
7/22/2019 Matthew Tyler - Financial Assurance Technical Memo on PolyMet SDEIS
17/20
17
A B: 3.13.3 B (2011)
-
7/22/2019 Matthew Tyler - Financial Assurance Technical Memo on PolyMet SDEIS
18/20
18
-
7/22/2019 Matthew Tyler - Financial Assurance Technical Memo on PolyMet SDEIS
19/20
19
-
7/22/2019 Matthew Tyler - Financial Assurance Technical Memo on PolyMet SDEIS
20/20
20
A C: C
F
(A)
# I