maximizing investment and...
TRANSCRIPT
MAXIMIZING INVESTMENT AND UTILIZATION
Luis AjamilBermello, Ajamil & Partners
November 2013
OPTIMIZATION
How to increase
use of the
facility
How to improve
the capacity of
the facility
Two perspectives
issu
es
Issues
• Cruise terminals have a very low utilization rate• Seasonally
• Weekly
• Daily
• Hourly
• Whenever ports begin to optimize use, new
competitive facilities are created lowering the use
• Cruise lines push for certain dates and times keeping
utilization low
• Terminals are becoming increasingly more expensive
• Low utilization = low capital capacity
What drives low utilization?
• Interport competition• Come to my port – I will offer a Saturday berth
• Lack of cruise line competition
• Inability for ports to have meaningful discussions with
cruise lines
• Lack of desire by cruise lines to change timing• Imagine an airport where people only begin vacations in the
weekend?
• Lack of recognition of the strategic place of the port
be
rth
utiliz
atio
n
Global growth
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
'95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 09 10 11 12
Pa
xs
('0
00
)
North America Europe Asia
Global expansion
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Growth factors affecting ports
• Natural potential for development
• Timing of cruise line expansion and strategy
• Interline competition
• Seasonality (by month)
• Daily fluctuations
The 5 phases of port growth
Growth through small ships
Growth through increases in
ships and ship size
Growth through increases in ship
size and decreases in numbers
of ships
Growth through increases in size
and number of ships
Back to growth in ship size
North American passengers
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
'95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11
Pa
sse
ng
ers
Regional homeport passengers (multi-day)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Port of Miami Port Everglades Port Canaveral Port of Tampa
Source: B&A, 2009.
Florida homeport passengers
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
11,000,000
12,000,000
13,000,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: B&A, 2009.
Keys
• Growth is not unlimited or linear
• Growth occurs in steps as capacity is added
• Lines tend to compete with each other at the same
port, therefore causing large and fast increases
• There are glass ceilings at each port• Growth will diffuse to many ports as the lines continue to globalize
• Lines do not compete with themselves
• Capacity issues
Seasonality
S E A S O N A L
S E A S O N A L
Y E A R R O U N D
Warm weather seasonality (Los Angeles)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Low
season
Cold weather seasonality (Alaska)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152
Low
season
Low
season
tra
nsi
t to
Ala
ska
tra
nsi
t fr
om
Ala
ska
low
se
aso
n
low
se
aso
n
Yearly seasonality (SF)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec
Berth demand by day
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2001 2003 2010
PORT OF CALLHOMEPORT HOMEPORT
Current trigger for facility demand
• Very specific for each port
• Driven by:• Seasonality
• Peaking patterns
• On average each homeport should handle 300,000
passengers per berth increasing to 500,000
• Designing a new facility cannot be triggered by a
single event• A port cannot build for a single peak day or week
• Provide facilities once the weekend berth occupancy
reaches 90%
• Most ports wait for a customer to request a berth they
don’t have
North America homeport terminal demand
• If we add 100 more ships in the next 15 years
• Assume 50% to other markets
• These 50 ships will require = 75 homeport
berths/week
• If 40% are seasonally deployed that translates
into 105 berths/week
• Utilization of 4 days a week = 25 terminals
• Utilization of 5 days a week = 20 terminals
WE WILL OUTSTRIP NA CRUISE PORT CAPACITY IN LESS THAN10 YEARS AND ONLY IF:
- build larger ships
- weekday departures
- full use of the entire coastal port system
co
sts
Both scenarios offer challenges
• Start-up ports• Lack of certainty
• High start-up costs
• Low volumes
• Slow ramp up to profitability
• Legacy ports• Fixing an old terminal could be as expensive as a
new one
• Incremental increases
• Rare that legacy ports have huge jumps in traffic
• Usually large incremental costs
Development costs
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Co
st (
mill
ion
s)
terminal pier
What is driving the costs?
• Inflation
• Size
• Parking
• Equipment
• Security
• Two level operations
• Multiple gangways
• Elevators, escalators
20 TO 25 TERMINALS AT $50 TO $100
MILLION
=
$1 TO $2.5 BILLION IN INVESTMENT
inc
om
e
Marine gross income per passenger (major US home ports)
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
Revenues
• On average the total per passenger charge in the US is
$14.52
• This varies widely by region
• West coast is lowest at $9.01
• North Atlantic is highest at +$19.00
• Legacy ports average at $15.51
Gross revenues per terminal
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
$12,000,000
$14,000,000
$16,000,000
1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 7
Evolution of cruise line involvement
NO AGREEMENTS
VOLUME GUARANTEES
DIRECT INVESTMENT
VOLUME AND RATE GUARANTEES
Agreements
• Cruise lines are strategically looking for longer
agreements
• They know that cost will be switching more favorably to
the ports in the future
• They want to control the remaining berths
• Ports are signing agreements at record rates
Optimization
• Agreements and pricing need to begin to reflect the
pricing realities of the peaking patterns to:• Incentivize higher utilization
• De-incentivize overbuilding
• Differences need to be meaningful to affect change
• The concept can be developed for the full group of
itineraries to make it meaningful to all
OPTIMIZATION
How to increase
use of the
facility
How to improve
the capacity of
the facility
Two perspectives
What does this mean
• Getting it right from the start
• Building for expansion
• Building for changes
• Do not overbuild
de
sig
ns
Two types of development
• Legacy ports• Are redeveloping older terminals for the new realities
• Start-up ports• Are developing for new capacity from the on-set
solu
tio
ns
Realities today
• All ports started with low cost solutions
• Using existing abandoned berths and warehouses
• Low investments
• Those easy solutions are all exhausted
• Few if any berths are available
• Ports are building new
Concepts
• New concepts must be utilized
• More expensive at first – but cheapest in the long-run
• Break the mold and look to future common sense
solutions
Legacy vs. new ports
• Legacy ports• The legacy ports have huge problems
• Most built cheap and fast and now the solutions are
complicated and expensive
• Most terminals over 10 years old are obsolete
• Yet the volumes are marginally larger
• New ports• Have huge jumps in volumes
• No track record to be decisive
Existing growth development model
• Ports wait for the cruise line to call
• Then you have at best 24 months to deliver a facility
• But…….
• Terminals are now much more complicated, expensive
and difficult to execute
• Planning is essential
crite
ria
Terminals
• More complex• Security
• CBP
• Baggage handling
• More expensive
• Ever changing
• Transportation issues
Cruise terminal area comparison (mt2)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
ARRIVE DEPART OTHER
How do we measure success?
PASSENGER
SATISFACTION
PORT
AUTHORITY
SATISFACTION
CRUISE LINE
SATISFACTIONMORE VOLUME
THIRD PARTY
OPERATOR
SATISFACTION
MORE PROFIT
General guidelines (homeport)
• Currently depending on region or size:
• North American terminals can vary from 3.5 to 7.0 mt2
per passenger
• European terminals vary from 1.6 to 3.0 mt2 per
passenger
• Asian terminal are being designed with +4.0 mt2 per
passenger
Performance standards
• Passenger experience
• Time
• Flow
• Queues
• Spaciousness
• Direction
• Friendliness
• Cruise company
• Cost
• Efficiency
• Labor
• Turn around time
• Passenger experience
• Ports
• Revenues and costs
• Volumes
Performance standard
• Establish levels of terminal performance to
match frequency or likelihood of demand
• Size the terminal with the Base Design Load
(BDL)
• Time to clear the ship
• Provide processing capacity for Peak Design
Load (PDL)
• Flow and capacity
• Concentrate on throughput improvements to
reduce space needs
co
nc
lusi
on
s
Conclusions
• Optimize traffic• Do not over build
• Create pricing to reflect the scarcity of the asset and the demand
• Adjust pricing to incentivize full use
• Promote 24-7 use of the facilities
• Optimize design• Get it right
• Master plan
• Design to a standard
MAXIMIZING INVESTMENT AND UTILIZATION
Luis AjamilBermello, Ajamil & Partners
November 2013