Measuring and Fostering Measuring and Fostering the Progress of the Progress of

Societies: Societies: Poverty and ExclusionPoverty and Exclusion

Judith Randel and Tony GermanJudith Randel and Tony Germandi@devinit.org +44 (0) 1749 831141 +44 (0) 1749 831141

Progress, Poverty and ExclusionProgress, Poverty and Exclusion

►What do we mean by progress on poverty What do we mean by progress on poverty and exclusion and how can statistics help?and exclusion and how can statistics help?

The post 2015 agenda for the eradication of povertyThe post 2015 agenda for the eradication of poverty Dis-aggregation and panel dataDis-aggregation and panel data Counting the uncountedCounting the uncounted Excluded or exploited?Excluded or exploited?

► Fostering and Measuring progress of the Fostering and Measuring progress of the global societyglobal society in the fight against poverty and in the fight against poverty and exclusionexclusion

Progress: MDGs PLUSProgress: MDGs PLUS

The MDGs have been a major force for progressThe MDGs have been a major force for progressBut…But…

► Even if the MDGs are met in 2015 there will still be Even if the MDGs are met in 2015 there will still be hundreds of millions of people living in chronic hundreds of millions of people living in chronic povertypoverty

► Only one goal (education) requires universal access Only one goal (education) requires universal access – but others are milestones – but others are milestones

► Achieving the milestones means including the Achieving the milestones means including the ‘hard-to-reach’ poor‘hard-to-reach’ poor

Attention to universal rights and Attention to universal rights and post 2015 agenda for poverty post 2015 agenda for poverty

eradicationeradication

““When we all signed up to the Millennium When we all signed up to the Millennium

Declaration, which committed us to making the Declaration, which committed us to making the

right to development a reality for everyoneright to development a reality for everyone

……we meant we meant everyoneeveryone””

(Hilary Benn, May 2004, UK Secretary of State for International Development)(Hilary Benn, May 2004, UK Secretary of State for International Development)

We need to frame the way we We need to frame the way we

gather and use data in the gather and use data in the

context of the post-2015 agenda context of the post-2015 agenda

on poverty eradicationon poverty eradication

►Data relevant to rights, means capturing:Data relevant to rights, means capturing:

multidimensionality, multidimensionality, vulnerability vulnerability and structural issuesand structural issues

Disaggregating data on Disaggregating data on poverty – need for panel poverty – need for panel data data

► We need to know who stays poor and who moves We need to know who stays poor and who moves into and out of poverty so we need to measure into and out of poverty so we need to measure what is happening to specific people over timewhat is happening to specific people over time

► Between 1992 and 1999 the national poverty rate Between 1992 and 1999 the national poverty rate in Uganda fell from 56% to 34%in Uganda fell from 56% to 34%

► The panel data shows that in the same period, The panel data shows that in the same period, 30% of people moved out of poverty, but 20% of 30% of people moved out of poverty, but 20% of people stayed poor and 10% fell into poverty. people stayed poor and 10% fell into poverty.

► In other words there was a lot of mobility of living In other words there was a lot of mobility of living conditions over time.conditions over time.

Panel data: understanding impact on Panel data: understanding impact on povertypoverty

► The Rwandan government has been encouraging farmers to The Rwandan government has been encouraging farmers to make increased use of fertiliser. make increased use of fertiliser.

► Two cross section surveys show % of farmers using fertiliser Two cross section surveys show % of farmers using fertiliser increased from 2000 to 2005. They also show that the non-increased from 2000 to 2005. They also show that the non-poor are more likely to use fertiliser than the poor. poor are more likely to use fertiliser than the poor.

► But we don’t know whether the non-poor who used fertiliser But we don’t know whether the non-poor who used fertiliser in 2005 were poor in 2000.in 2005 were poor in 2000.

► It may be that many of them were poor in 2000 and use of It may be that many of them were poor in 2000 and use of fertiliser helped them become non-poor; fertiliser helped them become non-poor;

► OR it may be they were always non poor and the non-poor OR it may be they were always non poor and the non-poor are always more likely to use fertiliser. are always more likely to use fertiliser.

• With panel data we could distinguish these two cases. With panel data we could distinguish these two cases. • Without panel data we do not know the answer, so we don’t Without panel data we do not know the answer, so we don’t

know if fertiliser use has contributed to poverty reduction.know if fertiliser use has contributed to poverty reduction.

Issues on panel dataIssues on panel dataLimitations of panel dataLimitations of panel data

► “ “age” over time - samples representative at the beginning age” over time - samples representative at the beginning become less so over timebecome less so over time

► Attrition: People drop out - they may be the most revealing.Attrition: People drop out - they may be the most revealing.

Very few panel data sets AND difficult to accessVery few panel data sets AND difficult to access

► Serious difficulties of researchers and others (including Serious difficulties of researchers and others (including sometimes government) getting access. sometimes government) getting access.

► Panel data seen as a valuable private resource for individual Panel data seen as a valuable private resource for individual researchers or groups of researchers (often international). researchers or groups of researchers (often international). This is an issue with privately funded and statistics offices’ This is an issue with privately funded and statistics offices’ data.data.

Do we need a code of good practice (or something Do we need a code of good practice (or something stronger) on access to data, especially panel data? stronger) on access to data, especially panel data?

Counting the UncountedCounting the Uncounted

Statistics often exclude the most vulnerableStatistics often exclude the most vulnerable

► Household surveys and censuses don’t cover Household surveys and censuses don’t cover the homelessthe homeless

► Disabled people & unwanted relatives often Disabled people & unwanted relatives often missedmissed

► Difficult to count people in war zones, or Difficult to count people in war zones, or remote areasremote areas

► Children are often undercountedChildren are often undercounted

► ““We also miss the rich – they don’t want to We also miss the rich – they don’t want to participate in income and expenditure surveys”participate in income and expenditure surveys”

Death and Invisibility biasDeath and Invisibility bias

►And the most extreme form of And the most extreme form of invisibility is death – deaths due invisibility is death – deaths due from poverty make the statistics from poverty make the statistics look better. look better.

““Holding everything else constant, Holding everything else constant, if a poor person dies, the first MDG if a poor person dies, the first MDG is closer to being attained” is closer to being attained”

(Ravi Kanbur)(Ravi Kanbur)

Respecting the Respecting the perspective perspective

of poor peopleof poor peopleExtremely poor people experience Extremely poor people experience multidimensional disadvantage, vulnerable multidimensional disadvantage, vulnerable to major impacts from tiny shocks. to major impacts from tiny shocks.

Consequently…Consequently…

Looking through development ‘sectors’ makes Looking through development ‘sectors’ makes little senselittle sense

Classifying response according to donors’ Classifying response according to donors’ management categories of ‘humanitarian’ and management categories of ‘humanitarian’ and ‘development’ makes even less sense.‘development’ makes even less sense.

Dependent or productive? Dependent or productive?

““Njuma is 70, a widow, she depends on Njuma is 70, a widow, she depends on gifts from neighbours and earns about gifts from neighbours and earns about US$0.03 an hour gleaning corn. US$0.03 an hour gleaning corn.

Economic surveys and the census would, if Economic surveys and the census would, if they recognised her at all, class her as they recognised her at all, class her as poor and not working. poor and not working.

The reality is that she is employed in some The reality is that she is employed in some of the lowest paid work in the world” of the lowest paid work in the world”

(David Hulme, Chronic Poverty Report (David Hulme, Chronic Poverty Report 2004)2004)

Excluded or Exploited?Excluded or Exploited?

Will very poor people be able to escape Will very poor people be able to escape poverty if they are fully included in the poverty if they are fully included in the process of development and growth – or process of development and growth – or are they already included – just on are they already included – just on profoundly disadvantageous terms? profoundly disadvantageous terms? (Adversely incorporated).(Adversely incorporated).

What we measure will be very different What we measure will be very different according to the hypothesis we choose. according to the hypothesis we choose. If we consider exploitation, then the If we consider exploitation, then the statistics need to reveal the systemic statistics need to reveal the systemic conditions that entrench poverty.conditions that entrench poverty.

Statistics and global Statistics and global progress: following the progress: following the

moneymoney► Urgent need for improved resource trackingUrgent need for improved resource tracking

► Poor people, their representatives and civil Poor people, their representatives and civil society do not have access, in a timely society do not have access, in a timely fashion, to data on whether the rhetoric on fashion, to data on whether the rhetoric on increased aid is being translated into increased aid is being translated into resource flows that actually reach the resource flows that actually reach the poorest. poorest.

► One of the many rights currently denied to One of the many rights currently denied to the poor is the right to transparency on the the poor is the right to transparency on the resources spent in their name – this is a resources spent in their name – this is a major obstacle to the effective use of both major obstacle to the effective use of both money and statistics for poverty elimination. money and statistics for poverty elimination.

Statistics and global progress: Statistics and global progress: Social ProtectionSocial Protection

►Global access to social protection can Global access to social protection can be seen as major indicator of progressbe seen as major indicator of progress

The fact that we don’t have good The fact that we don’t have good statistics on chronic poverty means that statistics on chronic poverty means that it is more difficult to identify appropriate it is more difficult to identify appropriate policy responses.policy responses.

We need to measure the benefits as well We need to measure the benefits as well as the costs of social protection schemesas the costs of social protection schemes

Data, empowerment, changeData, empowerment, change

How much data do we need to stimulate How much data do we need to stimulate change and how do we weigh priorities?change and how do we weigh priorities?

““Latte £1.89, Ethiopian Farmer: 3pLatte £1.89, Ethiopian Farmer: 3pAn outdated equation of poverty and exploitation”An outdated equation of poverty and exploitation”

(Get Cape, Wear Cape, Fly – Glastonbury 2007)(Get Cape, Wear Cape, Fly – Glastonbury 2007)

““We have to move towards measuring welfare, not just output”We have to move towards measuring welfare, not just output”

(Angel Gurría, Secretary-General to OECD Ministerial Council Meeting, (Angel Gurría, Secretary-General to OECD Ministerial Council Meeting, 2007)2007)

Statistics and global progress:Statistics and global progress:

►The way society measures, and the The way society measures, and the valuevalue society chooses to accord to society chooses to accord to social and economic ‘goods’, is social and economic ‘goods’, is critical critical

►The ‘Measuring Progress’ process The ‘Measuring Progress’ process implies the need for a better implies the need for a better balance in what is measured, to balance in what is measured, to give greater weight to social give greater weight to social priorities alongside economic priorities alongside economic indicatorsindicators

Key points on better data Key points on better data for poverty elimination:for poverty elimination:

Improving data access is central – that means building Improving data access is central – that means building statistical capacitystatistical capacity

Much greater effort is needed to make data easy to use for a Much greater effort is needed to make data easy to use for a range of users at all levelsrange of users at all levels

Data ownership needs to be revisited, including the rights of Data ownership needs to be revisited, including the rights of poor people in relation to data based on their livespoor people in relation to data based on their lives

A much greater effort is needed to ensure the poorest are not A much greater effort is needed to ensure the poorest are not ‘invisible’‘invisible’

Alongside the fundamental needs incorporated in the MDGs Alongside the fundamental needs incorporated in the MDGs to halve the proportion of people in poverty by 2015, the post to halve the proportion of people in poverty by 2015, the post 2015 agenda for poverty elimination will need to include the 2015 agenda for poverty elimination will need to include the realisation of political rights, such as the right of the poorest realisation of political rights, such as the right of the poorest to information.to information.