measuring vet participation by ses over time
DESCRIPTION
Measuring VET participation by SES over time. Tom Karmel and Patrick Lim CEET conference, 1 November 2013. SEIFA. Index of relative socio-economic disadvantage (IRSD) Index of relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage (IRSAD) Index of education and occupation (IEO) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Measuring VET participation by SES over time
Tom Karmel and Patrick LimCEET conference, 1 November 2013
SEIFA
• Index of relative socio-economic disadvantage (IRSD)
• Index of relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage (IRSAD)
• Index of education and occupation (IEO)• Index of economic resources (IER)
Population (POA)
Population (SLA)
Quintile 2006 2011 2006 2011
1 15.0 16.0 13.2 16.02 17.6 17.7 21.8 20.63 20.4 19.7 20.4 20.14 21.4 21.5 22.9 23.95 25.7 25.1 21.7 19.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Quintiles aint quintiles
15 to 19 Year
Olds20 to 24 Year
Olds
Quintile2006 POA
2006 SLA
2006 POA
2006 SLA
1 14.9 13.3 14.5 12.82 17.5 21.5 15.8 20.03 20.2 20.2 20.4 20.14 21.3 22.9 22.1 24.15 25.8 22.0 26.7 22.6
And even worse for particular age groups
2006 using 2006 Quintiles (SLA)Qualification 1 2 3 4 5Diploma and above 2.0 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.4Certificate IV 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3Certificate III 7.9 9.5 9.5 8.7 6.5Certificate II 10.4 10.6 9.3 6.9 5.4Certificate I 2.9 2.6 2.6 1.8 1.1Non-AQF 4.8 4.5 3.2 2.9 2.8Module Only 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1Total 29.9 31.0 28.3 24.1 19.5
VET participation rates for 15-19 years, 2006
2011 using 2011 quintiles (SLA)Qualification 1 2 3 4 5Diploma and above 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.0Certificate IV 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 1.9Certificate III 13.4 15.2 14.3 13.1 8.4Certificate II 14.0 14.6 11.6 8.3 5.7Certificate I 2.5 2.1 2.1 1.5 1.1Non-AQF 3.0 2.9 2.2 1.7 1.7Module Only 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2Total 37.3 39.5 35.2 29.8 20.9
VET participation rates for 15-19 years, 2011
2006 using 2006 QuintilesQualification 1 2 3 4 5Diploma and above 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.9Certificate IV 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.7Certificate III 7.2 7.9 7.0 6.8 5.5Certificate II 2.9 2.6 2.2 1.6 1.0Certificate I 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3Non-AQF 3.4 3.1 2.4 2.2 1.9Module Only 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2Total 19.2 19.1 16.7 15.7 13.5
VET participation rates for 20-24 years, 2006
2011 using 2011 quintilesQualification 1 2 3 4 5Diploma and above 3.0 3.2 2.9 3.3 3.0Certificate IV 3.3 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.9Certificate III 10.5 11.1 9.2 8.5 6.5Certificate II 3.8 3.0 2.1 1.7 1.1Certificate I 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2Non-AQF 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.3Module Only 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2Total 24.4 24.6 20.1 18.9 15.1
VET participation for 20-24 years, 2011
2011 Quintiles2006 Quintiles 1 2 3 4 5 Unknown Total1 81 15 3 1 0 0 1002 16 63 18 2 1 0 1003 2 19 64 14 0 0 1004 1 3 14 73 9 0 1005 0 0 1 11 88 0 100Unknown 13 0 0 4 17 67 100
2006 SEIFA against 2011 SEIFA (IRSD) by POA
2011 Quintiles2006 Quintiles 1 2 3 4 5 Unknown Total1 88 11 0 0 1 1 1002 15 74 11 0 0 0 1003 0 18 69 12 0 0 1004 0 0 16 75 7 2 1005 0 0 1 10 88 1 100Unknown 9 0 6 0 0 86 100
2006 SEIFA against 2011 SEIFA (IRSD), by SLA
Apparent and actual educational participation rates in a hypotheticalexample.
Quintile
2006 collection using 2006
2011 collection using 2006 quintiles
2011 collection using 2011 quintiles
1 40.5 44.9 42.12 45.3 48.5 44.43 32.4 36.6 36.24 24.2 25.2 27.45 19.6 19.4 21.3
Total 15 to 19 year olds 30.7 33.0 33.0
15-19 year old VET participation rates, 2006 and 2011, POA
Quintile
Actual change 2006
- 2011
Estimated change 2006 – 2011 using
2006 quintiles
Difference between
actual change and
estimated change
% of actual change 2006
- 20111 1.7 4.5 -2.8 -169.12 -0.9 3.2 -4.1 458.33 3.8 4.2 -0.4 -10.94 3.2 1.0 2.2 68.15 1.7 -0.2 1.9 110.6
Total 15 to 19 year olds 2.3 2.3 -0.1 -2.4
15-19 years VET participation rate, changes between 2006 and 2011, POA
Actual and apparent changes in VET participation for age by SES quintiles, 2006-2011, SEIFA (ISRD), POA (percentage points)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Actual changeApparent change
Quintile
Actual Change 2006 - 2011
Estimated change 2006 - 2011 using the 2006
Difference between actual and estimated change
% of actual change 2006 - 2011
1 7.4 9.0 1.6 21.42 8.5 10.0 1.5 17.93 6.9 8.4 1.6 22.94 5.6 6.5 0.8 14.45 1.4 4.0 2.6 182.5
Total 15 to 19 year olds 2.2 2.6 0.4 19.8
15-19 years VET participation rate, changes between 2006 and 2011, SLA
Apparent and actual VET participation rates for those aged 15-19 years, by SES quintile, 2011
1 2 3 4 50
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
ApparentActual
Apparent and actual VET participation rates for those aged 20-24 years, by SES quintile, 2011
1 2 3 4 50
5
10
15
20
25
30
ApparentActual
Apparent and actual VET participation rates for those aged 24-64 years, by SES quintile, 2011
1 2 3 4 50
5
10
15
20
25
30
ApparentActual
Actual and apparent changes in VETparticipation for age by SES quintiles,2006-2011, SEIFA (ISRD), SLA (percentage points)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Actual changeApparent change
More work to be done
• Same exercise for higher education• Figure out how to analyse accuracy of
estimates at qualification level
Summary
• Quintiles ain’t quintiles.• Important to calculate participation rates
rather than use 20% as a reference.• Equity issue in VET not obvious.• In respect of SEIFA, level of regional
classification matters.• SEIFA at SLA level seems ok, but need to test
methodology every census.