merfi nexus in methods and processes
TRANSCRIPT
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What does the Nexus mean for Methods and Process? Dr Alex Smajgl
Mekong Region Futures Institute
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Multiple sectors = Multiple disciplines
• Specific tradeoffs: • Energy-water trade-offs
• Hydrological models • System dynamics models
• Water-food trade-offs • Agronomic models and crop models • Integrated hydrological models (primary prod è fish)
• Food-energy • System dynamics models • Land use change models
• Nexus-wide dynamics • Agent-based models • Bayesian Belief networks
MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute
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Cross sector dialogue
MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute
• Process design critical for cross sector dialogue especially
• If issues highly contested • If issues very complex
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MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute
The Ideal: Vision-based decision making
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MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute
Visions to replace sector mandates = normative benchmark
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Mapping visions & future scenarios Plausibility & desirability
MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute
- -
Des
irabi
lity
+
+
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Example Vision for Mekong Delta
0.2$ha$rice+shrimp$farming$can$sustain$family$
No$damage$from$sea$level$rise$
No$environmental$pollution$
No$salinity$intrusion$
Irrigation$for$aquaculture$projects$provide$better$living$conditions$
Industrial$development$projects$provide$better$living$conditions$
Government$policies$respond$successfully$to$environmental$challenges$$+>$control$of$industrial$pollution$and$disease$
Government$policies$improve$a$poor$family’s$living$conditions$!
MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute
Ø Improved environment Ø Improved living standards Ø Reduced poverty
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Vietnam(as(industrialised(country(with(high(living(standards(
Good(cooperation(between(Mekong(region(countries(
Well;managed(trans;boundary(water(resources(
Well;managed(hydropower(
Flood(peaks(reduced(by(hydropower(
Increasing(income(equality((
Less(environmental(pollution:((increased(awareness,(better(policy,(better(technology(
Protected(Mekong(Delta:(Dikes,(adjusted(cropping,(local(reservoirs(!
MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute
Ø Improved environment Ø Improved living standards Ø Reduced risks Ø Improved intern. relations
Example Vision for Mekong Delta
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MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute
Cause–effect assumptions
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MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute
Understand and test underpinning beliefs
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MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute
Revisit decision options with new vision & new beliefs
Sector optimum vs. Nexus optimum
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MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute
ChaRL process: Challenge and Reconstruct Learning
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Thank You
MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute
Dr Alexander Smajgl, Managing Director, MERFI [email protected]
Ø Smajgl A, Ward J, 2013. A framework to bridge science & policy… Futures, 52(8), 52-58.
Ø Smajgl, A., Ward, J., Foran, T., Dore, J., & Larson, S. (2015). Visions, beliefs… Ecology and Society, 20(2):15.
Ø Smajgl, A., Toan, T.Q., Nhan, D.K., Ward, J., et al. (2015). …rising sea-levels ... Nature Climate Change, 5, 167-174.