michael schulz, mian chin, stefan kinne jan griesfeller ... schulz... · giss-cmu giss-matrix...
TRANSCRIPT
AeroCom phase II
• Michael Schulz, Mian Chin, Stefan Kinne Jan Griesfeller, Brigitte Koffi, Nicolas Huneeus & Aerocom modellers, NASA&CNES&ESA science team,
Aeronet/GAW/Skynet, EUSAAR-EMEP-IMPROVE-EANET Pis and contributors
http:/nansen.ipsl.jussieu.fr
http:/aerocom.met.no
AeroCom Motivation
• Why are these damned aerosol models so different? • Radiative forcing best guess and trend? • Can we constrain model components and regional
differences with more observations? • Are the CMIP5 models realistic wrt to aerosols? • Put new aerosol model results in context / Compare to
old & Aerocom Median Model / same scale / improve… • Do we understand aerosol emission trends? • Are there “non-linearities” involved in trends and future
predictions of aerosol effects?
AeroCom Infrastructure Development
• Funding through links to cci-Aerosol, MACC-II, ECLIPSE, EMEP, ACTRIS, IS-ENES, WMO-SDS (ESA?), partner institutes core resources
• Database approaching 10 TB / security… • Web interface reliability / documentation • Observational database updates , 1980 - 2010, NRT,
satellites, in-situ++ , CALIOP, aircraft • Harmonization of new model data ...cmor-ipcc • Expert-user server • Annual workshop organisation&website
Next 10th AeroCom workshop
noon 3 October - noon 6 October 2011 hosted by Kyushu University, Japan Host Toshi Takemura
CAM4-Oslo CAM5-MAM3-PNNL CCCma ECHAM-MESSy-GMXe FMI_SALSA-EL FMI_SALSA-V1-TB GEOS-Chem-APM GEOSCHEM-v822 GISS-CMU GISS-MATRIX GISS-modelE GISS-TOMAS GLOMAPmodev4 GOCART-v4 HadGEM2-ES LSCE MPIHAM_V1_KZ MPIHAM_V2_KZ OsloCTM2 SPRINTARS-v384 TM5-V3
GISS-MATRIX -- /IPCC/MET/ GISS-modelE -- /IPCC/MET/ GOCART-v4 -- /0/ HadGEM2-ES -- /0/ LSCE_LOI_SS-IPCC3 /IPCC/ SPRINTARS-v384 -- /0 / FIX / IPCC / MET TM5-V3 -- /0/ (2000-2009)
CCCma -- SIZ1/2/3/4 GISS-MATRIX -- SIZ1/2/3/4 ECHAM-MESSy-GMXe -- SIZ1/2/3/4 GISS-TOMAS -- SIZ1/2/3/
CAM4-Oslo HadGEM2-ES MPIHAM_V2_KZ OsloCTM2 SPRINTARS-v384 GISS-MATRIX GISS-modelE
AEROCOM phase II submission status April 2011 A2
CTR
L Ph
ase
II co
ntro
l 20
06
Aero
sol H
indc
ast
1980
- ca
200
7
Dire
ct F
orci
ng
2006
and
185
0 M
icro
phys
ics
2006
Where compared ? Correlated ? Regional Normalized Bias ?
Local month to month variation? Histogram? Zonal Absolute Bias ?
AeroCom phase II standard visualization against observational data Example LSCE.A2.CTRL / Aeronet Aerosol Optical Depth, year 2006
Evaluation against multiple observational datasets Example ECHAM5-HAM.A2.CTRL
Absorption AOD Sulphate
Elemental Carbon
AOD
Fine AOD
Abs Coeff
Nicolas Huneeus Dust model evaluation (ACP in press) Brigitte Koffi Caliop v3 Vertical profile evaluation Bjorn H. Samset / Gunnar Myhre Direct Radiative Forcing Mark Flanner Black Carbon on Snow Michael Schulz Best guess of forcing relevant aerosol fields Kostas Tsigaridis Organic aerosol model evaluation Cynthia Randles AeroCom model solar radiative transfer schemes Mian Chin Natural aerosol in hindcasts Thomas Diehl / Stefan Kinne An AeroCom hindcast emission dataset Michael Schulz Sulphate and AOD trend in hindcast simulations Philip Stier Prescribed aerosol optics impact on radiative forcing P. Suntharilingam Natural sulphate in Southern Ocean Atmosphere Graham Mann / Kirsty Pringle / Ari Asmi Size distribution evaluation Xiahong Liu Aerosol effects on precipitation +++
Analysis Work in progress
Direct Radiative Forcing [Wm2]
Comp CAM4-Oslo HadGEM2-ES
MPIHAM_V2_KZ OsloCTM2
SPRINTARS-v384
GISS-MATRIX
GISS-modelE
All -0.05 -0.31 -0.15 -0.43 -0.28 -0.49 -0.62
SO4 -0.45 -0.31 -0.28 -0.57 -0.37 -0.25 NA
BCFF 0.36 0.19 0.14 0.37 0.14 0.17 NA
OAFF -0.03 -0.04 -0.01 -0.09 -0.02 -0.03 NA
BB 0.08 -0.07 0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 NA
SOA NA NA -0.02 -0.07 NA NA NA
NO3 NA -0.11 NA -0.03 NA -0.13 NA
CSum -0.04 -0.33 -0.15 -0.41 -0.27 -0.24 NA
@
Brigitte Koffi et al. Global evaluation of aerosol vertical distribution simulated by AeroCom global climate models using CALIOP observations.
in preparation for JGR, 2011 Regional night-time aerosol extinction profile, 3 years of Caliop
Representation of High&Low versus Low aerosol
Model Correlation to Caliop Charactheristic Height in 13 Regions 0-10 km 0-6 km
GISS 0.85 0.27
GOCART 0.22 0.63
KYU 0.42 0.58
LSCE 0.17 0.79
MATCH 0.05 0.70
MOZGN 0.23 0.41
ECHAM 0.64 0.41
PNNL 0.00 0.88
TM5 0.29 0.67
UIO-CTM 0.83 0.54
ARQM 0.06 0.00
UIO-GCM 0.06 0.40
Koffi et al in prep 2011
Aerocom Hindcast experiments
1980-2008 (eventually 2000-2008) …2009 • HCA-O => Best guess emissions, nudged meteo • HCA-IPCC => ACCMIP emissions, nudged • HCA-FIX => Emissions of year 2011, nudged • HCA-MET => ACCMIP emissions, SST prescribed
aerosol feedbacks activated, freerunning
Slightly reduced set of AeroCom diagnostics Though 2000-2008 with daily info on observables
Hindcast analysis/technical topics
• Coordination with other hindcast experiments • Observational data trend significance • Radiative effect trends Surface/TOA/Cloudy • Regional emission trends (PM25, sulfate, loads)
=> model field bias correction? • Life time constraints from observations? • Black carbon regional trends • Impact of natural aerosols on trends • Compare 1980-2000 variability to 1850-2000-2030-2100
variability of life times , extinction coefficients, forcing efficiencies, regional distribution