Michigan’sEconomy and Budget

Mitchell E. Bean, Director

Prepared for:Representative Vicki BarnettDistrict 37 Town Hall MeetingMaxfield Training Center, Farmington

January 25, 2010

January 2010 2

GF/GP and Restricted Cuts (Approximately $850 million)

FY 2009-10 budget approved by Legislature included roughly $500 million in GF/GP reductions and another $350 million in reductions to restricted fund appropriations

Compared to original FY 2008-09 budget, most operational departments saw reductions about 10% in their GF/GP appropriation amounts

Statutory Revenue Sharing for cities/villages/townships reduced by $73.8 million from FY 2008-09 (19.0% reduction)

Funding for Michigan Promise Grant Program entirely eliminated and additional reductions of $59.2 million GF/GP to need-based financial aid programs

Medicaid provider rates cut by 8.0% from original FY 2008-09 levels ($94.9 million GF/GP savings) and non-Medicaid Community Mental Health services reduced by $40 million GF/GP

Human Services budget reduced by over $238 million GF/GP, barely sufficient to meet federal maintenance-of-effort spending requirements for federal funds

January 2010 3

School Aid FY 2009-10

$165 per pupil reduction ($263 million)

ISD operation reduction of 20% ($16.3 million)

Elimination and reduction of specific categorical programs totaling $32.8 million

Governor vetoed the Sec. 20J payments which reduced funding to 39 districts by a total of $51.5 million

January 2010 4

GDP Forecast

-7%

-5%

-3%

-1%

1%

3%

5%

2005Q1 2005Q4 2006Q3 2007Q2 2008Q1 2008Q4 2009Q3 2010Q2 2011Q1 2011Q4

Percent Change

2009Q4 - 2011Q4are January 2010

Consensus Estimates

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and January 2010 Consensus Estimates

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 5

Interest Rates

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Per

cen

t

Federal Funds

10-Year Treasury Yield

Source: IHS Global Insight, January 2010 Forecast

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 6

Index of Consumer SentimentJanuary 2004 Through December 2009

Source: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

Jan 04 May 04 Sep 04 Jan 05 May 05 Sep 05 Jan 06 May 06 Sep 06 Jan 07 May 07 Sep 07 Jan 08 May 08 Sep 08 Jan 09 May 09 Sep 09

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 7

U.S. Economy Has Lost 7.3 Million Jobs Since Recession Began

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor

100

165215

120

(72)(122)

(160)(137)

(161)(128)

(175)

(321)

(380)

(597)

(681)

(741)

(303)

(463)

4

(85)

(681)(652)

(139)(127)(154)

(304)

(519)

(144)

Sep 07 Nov 07 Jan 08 Mar 08 May 08 Jul 08 Sep 08 Nov 08 Jan 09 Mar 09 May 09 Jul 09 Sep 09 Nov 09

Thou

san

ds

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 8

U.S. and MichiganUnemployment Rates

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and January 2010 Consensus Estimates

3%

7%

11%

15%

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

U.S.

Michigan

2009Q3 – 2010Q4are January 2010

Consensus Estimates

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 9

U.S. % Change in EmploymentNovember 2008 Through November 2009

-3.4%

-13.8%

-10.7%

-4.1%-3.3%

-5.2%-4.4%

-1.1%

Total Non-Farm

Construc- tion

Manufac- turing

WholesaleTrade

Retail Trade Information

FinancialActivities Services

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 10

Michigan % Change in EmploymentNovember 2008 Through November 2009

-5.88%

-16.75% -17.09%

-9.61%

-6.87%

-12.50%

-6.15%

-4.25%

Total Non-Farm

Construc- tion

Manufac- turing

WholesaleTrade

Retail Trade Information

FinancialActivities Services

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 11

Total Existing Home Sales

Source: National Association of Realtors

-23%

-17%

-11%

-5%

1%

7%

13%

19%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

U.S.

Michigan

% C

han

ge F

rom

Pri

or Y

ear

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 12

U.S. Housing Starts Drop 75%January 2006 Through November 2009

400

700

1,000

1,300

1,600

1,900

2,200

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started, SAAR, U.S. Census Bureau

Thou

san

ds

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 13

Length of U.S. Recessions

11

16

6

16

8

8

10

19

# of Months From Peak to Trough

1969-70

1973-75

1980

1981-82

1990-91

2001

Average Post-War

December 2007 Through June 2009 ?

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research and IHS Global Insight, January 2010 Forecast

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 14

Decline in GDP Steep Compared to Recent Recessions

-1.6%

-2.5%

-3.1%

-0.5%-0.2%

-3.2%

-2.2%-2.6%

-1.4%

0.7%

-3.7%

1948 1953 1957 1960 1970 1973 1980 1981 1990 2001 2008

Peak to Trough GDP Decline

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and House Fiscal Agency Calculations

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 15

MICHIGAN FORECAST

January 2010 16

Job Growth in Michigan

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and January 2010 Consensus Estimates

(112.7)(76.7) (71.0)

(17.0) (9.2)

(63.2) (58.7)(85.0)

(34.0)

(283.0)

(108.2)

88.0

91-00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Thou

sand

s

Average AnnualJob Growth

09, 10 & 11 areJanuary 2010

Consensus Estimates

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 17

Employment Location Quotientsby Industry

Michigan: February 2009

0.96Private non-manufacturing

1.18Manufacturing except Detroit 3

16.20Detroit 3 vehicle and parts manufacturing

Location QuotientIndustry

Source: University of Michigan RSQE, May 2009

January 2010 18

Big 3 Losing Market Share

13.915.1 15.1 15.6

17.416.8 16.9 16.5 16.1

13.2

10.311.2

12.5

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 201130%

40%

50%

60%

70%

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Big 3 Share

2009, 2010 & 2011are January 2010

Consensus Estimates

Source: Automotive News and January 2010 Consensus Estimates

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 19

Michigan Vehicle Employment

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and January 2010 Consensus Estimates

322.6 332.3 341.5 346.1

317.0296.9

274259.3

241.2221.3

202.6

172.4

120.0107.8

94.6

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Thou

sand

s

2009, 2010 & 2011are January 2010

Consensus Estimates

Hou

se F

isca

l Age

ncy

January 2010 20

Home Prices Fall Sharply

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Detroit, MI

10-city average

Source: Case-Shiller Index

% C

han

ge F

rom

Yea

r-A

go

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 21

Property Value Growth Slowing

Yearly Change

1.4 %−1.3 %2.3 %2008−0.8 %−5.4 %4.4 %2009

5.2 %3.8 %3.7 %20075.8 %5.0 %3.3 %20065.6 %5.9 %2.3 %20055.7 %6.3 %2.3 %20044.8 %7.5 %1.5 %20036.7 %9.8 %3.2 %20027.1 %10.0 %3.2 %20015.5 %9.0 %1.9 %20006.0 %9.9 %1.6 %19996.1 %9.5 %2.7 %19985.7 %8.2 %2.8 %19975.1 %7.5 %2.8 %1996

Total TaxableValue Growth

Total SEVGrowth

Inflation RateMultiplier

for Property

January 2010 22

Apr

19

60

to

Feb

19

61

Nov

19

73

to

Mar

19

75

Jan

19

80

to

Ju

l 19

80

Jul 1

98

1 t

o N

ov 1

98

2

Jul 1

99

0 t

o M

ar 1

99

1

Mar

20

01

to

Nov

20

01

Dec

20

07

to

Jun

e 2

00

9

Au

g 1

92

9 t

o M

ar 1

93

3

May

19

37

to

Ju

n 1

93

8

Feb

19

45

to

Oct

19

45

Nov

19

48

to

Oct

19

49

Jul 1

95

3 t

o M

ay 1

95

4

Au

g 1

95

7 t

o A

pr 1

95

8

Dec

19

69

to

Nov

19

70

Apr

19

60

to

Feb

19

61

-14.73%

22.40%

-6.72%

20.58%

13.09%

7.39%

-3.31% -3.48%

1.33%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

*

Michigan Per Capita IncomeDeviation from National Average

*2009 and 2010 are EstimatesSource: National Bureau of Economic Research

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 23

MICHIGAN REVENUE

January 2010 24

State of Michigan Revenue SourcesFY 2009-10 Total = $40,567.6 million

Income Taxes$5,273.3

13.0%

Federal Funds*$15,540.2

38.3%

Sales & Use Taxes$7,037.5

17.3%

Tobacco Taxes$981.80

2.4%

State Education Tax

$1,875.04.6%Transportation

Revenue$1,997.8

4.9%

Other Taxes$2,103.8

5.2%

Business Taxes$2,479.4

6.1%

NonTax Revenue$3,278.8

8.1%

*Federal Funds at Executive Recommendation Without ARRA

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 25

Inflation Adjusted GF/GP RevenueDown 43.4% Since FY 2000

$8,764

$9,463$9,788

$8,042$8,309$8,764

$6,981$6,701 $6,638

$6,968

$8,990

$7,366

$8,427 $8,319$8,266

$9,359

$6,898

$7,959

$5,238

$9,252

$7,548

$6,926

$9,242

$5,283

$5,771

$7,265

$8,214

$6,944

FY 98 FY 99 FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11

Mill

ions

FYs 10 & 11are

January 2010ConsensusEstimates

Actual Dollars

Adjusted for Inflation

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 26

Inflation Adjusted SAF Net RevenueDown 15.7% Since FY 2000

$9,310

$10,615$10,910

$11,082 $11,153

$9,131 $9,066$9,349

$9,141 $9,167$8,983 $8,900

$10,481 $10,715

$10,134$9,994$9,889

$11,513

$10,922

$10,458

$7,878

$8,797

$9,092$9,347

$8,936

$8,558

$8,009

FY 98 FY 99 FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11

FYs 10 &11are

January 2010ConsensusEstimates

Mill

ion

s

Actual Dollars

Adjusted for Inflation

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 27

Sales/Use Tax Share Declining

Taxable Sales as a Percent of Personal Income

FY 0935.3%33%

35%

37%

39%

41%

43%

45%

47%

49%

51%

FY 78 FY 80 FY 82 FY 84 FY 86 FY 88 FY 90 FY 92 FY 94 FY 96 FY 98 FY 00 FY 02 FY 04 FY 06 FY 08

Per

cent

of

Per

sona

l Inc

ome

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 28

Sales Tax Revenue

5.9% 6.4%

1.4% 1.9%0.9%

-3.2%

4.2%

4.2%

5.1%

1.2% 0.6%

-0.3%-1.3%

3.4%

0.8%

-10.1%

FY 96 FY 97 FY 98 FY 99 FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11

% C

hang

e Fr

om P

rior

Yea

r

FYs 10 & 11are

January 2009 Consensus Estimates

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 29

Transportation Revenue

*HFA Estimates

$736.

3 $90

3.5

$931.0

$922.

0 $9

33.5

$938.

9 $9

35.7

$932.

1 $9

22.4

$906.2

$883.7

$84

8.9

$840.

0 $8

32.0

$86.3

$118.3 $134.6 $143.5 $133.2 $143.0 $157.0 $140.5 $146.3 $148.6 $143.8 $140.1 $137.0 $137.0

$647.

2 $713.

6 $758.5

$80

2.9

$824.7

$87

7.1

$892.7

$97

8.5

$896.0

$898.8

$9

07.8

$894.

7 $87

3.8

$870.5

$1,868$1,959

$2,051$1,954

$1,884 $1,840$1,735

$1,470

FY 97 FY 98 FY 99 FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09* FY 10*

Mill

ions

of

Dol

lars

Net Vehicle License/Registration

State Diesel Fuel Taxes

State $.19/gal Gasoline Tax

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 30

Michigan Gasoline Tax Revenue

$800

$825

$850

$875

$900

$925

$950

FY 98 FY 99 FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09* FY 10*

Mill

ions

*Michigan Department of Treasury, May 2009

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 31

Impact ofTax Exemptions/Credits/Deductions

Bill

ion

s

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09

Tax Exemptions/Credits/Deductions

Revenue

Revenue$6.8 BillionHIGHER

Revenue$6.3 Billion

LOWER

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 32

MICHIGAN’SBUDGET

January 2010 33

FY 2009-10 BudgetAdjusted Gross Funding Sources

GF/GP $8,128,039,200

State Restricted $17,029,122,900

Federal$18,857,862,900

42.40%

Local/Private $463,501,000

1.04%

State Sources $25,157,162,100

56.56%

Adjusted Gross = $44,478,526,000

58.8%of State Sources

fundingis paid to

local governments

YTD 1/14/2010

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 34

FY 2009-10 Appropriations Funding

Adjusted Gross = $44,478,526,000

Restricted/Other$20,269,867,800

45.6%

SAF$12,823,571,000

28.8%

GF/GP$8,128,039,200

18.3%

Transportation$3,257,048,000

7.3%

37.7% Federal60.6% State Restricted

1.7% Local

76.9% Federal21.3% State Restricted2.0% Local/Private

16.0% Federal83.8% State Restricted

YTD 1/14/2010

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 35

State Restricted & GF/GP FY 2009-10

Other19.1%

Education50.2%

Corrections7.7%

Tranportation7.8%

Community Health15.1%

FY 2009-10 Total = $25,157,162,100

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 36

FY 2009-10 GF/GP

Community Health28%

Corrections24%

Colleges / Universities

22%Human

Services11%

State Police3%

Debt Service4%

Other8%

4.0%$300 million

Debt Service and SBA Rent

Civil Rights0.14%

State0.22%

Education0.24%

Attorney General0.35%

School Aid0.37%

Legislative Auditor General0.14%

Executive Office

0.06%

DELEG0.67%

0.72%

Judiciary1.88%

Resource Protection

0.91%

Treasury1.27%

Legislature1.29%

Military Affairs0.45%

FY 2009-10 Total = $8,128,039,200Management and Budget

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 37

School AidMajor Spending Categories

Foundation allowances(used for school operations)absorb $3 out of every $4 spent

Other Programs$403,265,400

3.1%

Foundation Allowances

$9,341,300,000 72.8%

Early Childhood Programs

$106,975,000 0.8%

Federal Programs (non-Special Ed)$1,177,059,400

9.2%

At-Risk Programs$308,988,200

2.4%

Special Education$1,485,983,000

11.6%

FY 2009-10 Total = $12,823,571,000

Note: Does not include local revenue and recognizes the $165 per pupil reduction.

YTD 1/14/2010

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 38

Medicaid Impact on Michigan Budget

For FY 09, approximately 22.4% of Michigan GF/GP revenueis appropriated for Medicaid

1 of 6 Michigan residents were eligible for Medicaid inApril 2009

42% of births and 70% of nursing home expendituresin Michigan are financed through Medicaid

Total state and federal Medicaid appropriation isover $9.9 billion in FY 09

Since FY 1999-2000

88.4% increase in Medicaid funding

53.0% growth in Medicaid caseload (564,000 cases)

January 2010 39

Corrections Budget IncreasesFY1023%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

FY71 FY74 FY77 FY80 FY83 FY86 FY89 FY92 FY95 FY98 FY01 FY04 FY07 FY 10

Pri

son

/Cam

p P

opu

lati

on in

Th

ousa

nd

s

Prison/Camp Population

Corrections % of State GF/GPFY0921%

FY712%

FY793%

FY899%

FY9515%

Fiscal Year 2008-09 includes GF/GP reductions due to appropriation of federal ARRA funds.Fiscal Year 2009-10 includes the impact of gubernatorial vetoes of negative line items in the MDOC budget.

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 40

$0

$6

$12

$18

$24

$30

$36

$42

$48

FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10ytd

Adjusted Gross Appropriationsby Fund Source

Excluding federal funds, FY 00 = FY 10 adjusted gross appropriations

YTD 1/14/2010

Bill

ion

s

Fede

ral

Res

tric

ted

GF/

GP

Local + Private

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 41

% Change in Source ofAdjusted Gross Appropriations

42.6%43.8%

45.0%

42.3%

38.3%

27.5%

31.4% 31.9%33.6%

42.4%

22.3% 22.0%22.9%

17.8% 18.3%

36.9%

44.2%

27.0% 23.7%

FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10YTD

% o

f To

tal A

djus

ted

Gro

ss

State Restricted Funds

Federal Funds

GF/GP

YTD 1/14/2010

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 42

GF/GP Appropriations

$9,189.0

$8,766.9

$9,981.8

$8,128.0$8,612.6$8,438.9

$8,176.8 $8,251.0$8,133.5

$6,996.7

$8,569.2

$9,106.3 $9,118.7

$8,706.6$8,830.9

$7,507.6

$8,659.7

FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 YTD FY 10*

Actual Dollars

Adjusted for Inflation

Mill

ion

s of

Dol

lars

YTD 1/14/2010

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 43

School Aid BudgetAdjusted Gross Appropriations

$11,451.1

$12,554.7$12,606.2$12,700.6

$13,008.2

$13,259.8

$11,708.5

$11,189.4$11,038.7

$12,823.6

$12,467.1

$12,897.8

$12,134.5

$11,507.7

$12,244.3

$11,617.1$11,602.8

FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 YTD FY 10 YTD

Actual Dollars

Adjusted for Inflation

Mill

ion

s of

Dol

lars

YTD 1/14/2010

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 44

Average Numberof Classified State Employees

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

FY71 FY74 FY77 FY80 FY83 FY86 FY89 FY93 FY95 FY98 FY01 FY04 FY07

Thou

sand

s of

Em

ploy

ees

16.7% DecreaseFY 01 to FY 09 YTD at 6/27/09

TOTAL All Departments

18.1% DecreaseFY 01 to FY 09 YTD at 6/27/09

TOTAL Without Corrections

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 45

Constitutional Revenue Limit

Billions of Dollars

($8.94)

($7.78)

($4.22)

$0.16

($2.41)

($3.92) ($4.18) ($4.44)($4.95)

($5.32)($4.65)

($7.72)

FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11

FYs 10 and 11are January 2009

Consensus Estimates

Average decline of Michigan revenue = 0.1% per year from 2000 through 2011

Average growth of Michigan personal income = 2.7% per year from 2000 through 2011

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 46

CURRENTISSUES

January 2010 47

Major School Aid Issues

Funding levels

Declining enrollment

Future issues:

Retirement costs

Infrastructure financing

Local property taxes

January 2010 48

Total Membership Pupil Counts

1,580,100

1,697,537

1,680,282

1,652,332

1,619,744

1,597,450

1,707,357

1,688,996

1,671,174

1,646,747

1,615,579

1,592,726

1,698,414

1,706,4071,710,630 1,714,705 1,714,185

FY 95 FY 96 FY 97 FY 98 FY 99 FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY10*

FY11*

Pupil Blend

50/50 FYs 95–97

60/40 FYs 98–99

75/25 FY 00

80/20 FYs 01–04

75/25 FYs 05–10

*FY 10 Unaudited Count; January 2010 Consensus Estimate

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 49

Total Appropriations forState University Operations

$1,615.5

$1,565.9

$1,428.6 $1,419.8 $1,433.2$1,452.7

$1,467.3 $1,461.2

$1,379.7

$1,341.7

$1,286.4 $1,278.4$1,260.3

$1,285.5$1,257.8

$1,433.3$1,527.2

FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10

Actual Dollars

Adjusted for Inflation

Note: Appropriations include delayed payments in FY in which funds were originally appropriated

Mill

ion

s of

Dol

lars

YTD 1/14/2010

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 50

State University Tuition Ratesand State Funding

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

FY89 FY91 FY93 FY95 FY97 FY99 FY01 FY03 FY05 FY07 FY09

% C

hang

e Fr

omm

Pri

or Y

ear

State Funding/Student

Average Resident Undergraduate Tuition/Fee Rate

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 51

Revenue Sharing Payments toCities, Villages, and Townships

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

$1,500

$1,600

FY 99 FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10*

Mill

ion

s

Full Funding

Actual

Statutory and Constitutional Payments

*FY10 Amounts are Estimates

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 52

Law Enforcement

613 613615

610609

608609

608

610

23,150 23,157

21,81521,621

21,500 21,424

21,115

22,174

22,931

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*

Agencies

Positions

Source: Michigan Commission on Law Enforcement Standards *As of 11/30/2009

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 53

Statewide Pavement ConditionCombined Freeway and Non-Freeway

Sources: Michigan Department of Transportation website and 2010-2014 Draft Five-Year Highway Program Presentation 11/19/09

71%69%

64%

82%

89%

75%

92%

69%

87%

78%

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

% P

avem

ent

in G

ood

Con

diti

on

Existing Condition Projected Condition Goal

House Fiscal Agency

January 2010 54

Reduced State RevenueMay Lead to Loss of Federal Aid

$475 $503 $549 $554

$84$89 $97 $98

$520** $565** $624** $593**

$1,152$1,216 $1,211 $1,172

$1,436*

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mill

ion

s

Program Total With Routine Maintenance Federal Aid Lost State Revenue Shortfall*2010 Proposed Highway and Maintenance Capital Program with anticipated ARRA

**Estimated Resulting Program Amount (with declining state revenue and inability to match available federal aid)

Sources: Michigan Department of Transportation website and 2010-2014 Draft Five-Year Highway Program Presentation 11/19/09

House Fiscal Agency

www.house.mi.gov/hfa