Interview  with  Paul  Stubbs,  The  Institute  of  Economics,  Zagreb,  Croatia  on  migration  and  Croatia  

Jutarnji   list,   28   January   2013-­‐01-­‐25  

1.  Lately,  there  has  been  a  lot  of  speculation  about  how  many  people  left  Croatia  during  the  crisis.  Do  

you  have  reliable  figures  and  what  do  they  tell  us?   If  there  are  no  figures,  are  their  trends  you  can  

point   to   that   would   suggest   the   migration   of   some   the   population   during   the   crisis.  

 

Let  me  first  of  all  say  that  there  are  massive  problems  with  standard  migration  statistics,  not  only  in  

Croatia  but  in  most  EU  countries  as  well.  In  our  own  study  (Silva  Meznarić  and  Paul  Stubbs  (2012)  The  

Social   Impacts  of  Emigration  and  Rural-­‐Urban  Migration:  Croatia,   report   for  European  Commission)  

we  found  that  statistics  on  those  leaving  Croatia  and  settling  in  Germany  are  quite  different  on  the  

German   side   and   on   the   Croatian   side.   The   problems   are   technical   and   I  will   not   go   into   them   in  

detail   but   they   relate   to   what   we   define   as  migration   and  whether   all   emigrants   actually   declare  

themselves   as   such.    Nevertheless,  whilst   there  was   considerable   emigration   from  Croatia  when   it  

was  part  of   former  Yugoslavia,  and   there  was  mass   forced  migration  during  and   immediately  after  

the  war  events,   I   think  we  can  say  that   in   the   last  10  years,  migration  movements,   into  and  out  of  

Croatia,  have  normalised  and,  on  the  whole,  been  quite  low.    

 

There   is   little   evidence   that   the   crisis   has   led   to   any   significant   increase   in   people   arriving   in,  

returning  to  Croatia,  or  leaving  Croatia.  In  2010,  there  was  a  sharp  reduction  in  recorded  immigrants  

(down   to  4,985),  mainly  as  a   result  of   reductions   in  quotas   for  particular   jobs,  but   it   rose  again   to  

8,534  people   in  2011.   It   is  true  that   in  2011,  for  the  third  successive  year,  more  people   left  Croatia  

than   arrived,   after   9   successive   years   in  which   the   picture  was   the   opposite.   But,   in   all   cases,   the  

numbers  are  very  small.  The  highest  number  of  recorded  emigrants  since  2000  was  in  2011,  reaching  

12,699,   almost   3,000  more   than   the   year   before.  Without  more   evidence,   I  would   be   reluctant   to  

attribute  this  to  the  crisis.    

 

It   may   that   more   would   like   to   migrate.   However,   although   it   is   true   that   there   are   networks   of  

Croatians   abroad,   there   is   considerable   limitation   on   labour   migration   and,   do   not   forget,   many  

neighbouring  countries  are  also  in  an  economic  crisis.  In  the  future,  if  the  crisis  continues  and  there  is  

real   recovery   and   a   demand   for   labour   in   neighbouring   countries   and/or   in   traditional   destination  

countries,  then  the  situation  might  change.        

 

Although  it  is  not  in  any  way  a  recent  phenomenon,  and  probably  has  not  been  made  worse  by  the  

crisis,   the   decline   in   population,   particularly   of   skilled   and   educated   adults,   in   rural   and   isolated  

areas,   is   far  more  worrying   for   Croatia’s   long-­‐term  development   than   international  migration.   The  

counties   which   have   suffered   significant   decreases   in   population   over   the   last   40   years   are   those  

which  have  the  highest  rates  of  poverty  and  are  in  the  middle  of  vicious  circle  of  low  human  capital,  

low  investment,  poor  services  and  so  on,  which  is  likely  only  to  increase  out-­‐migration  in  the  future.    

 

 

 

 

2.  What   are   the   experiences   of   other   countries   in   Europe?   In   the   last   few   years   there   have   been  

some   new   trends?   There   have   been   suggestions   that,   for   example,   the   Portuguese   moved   to  

countries  such  as  Mozambique.  

 

It  is  extremely  hard  to  generalise.  The  large  study  which  I  was  involved  in  covered  25  countries  in  the  

EU,  in  South  East  Europe  and  the  former  Soviet  Union.  There  does  seem  to  be  a  general  trend  that  

those   countries  with   lower   overall   GDP   and/or  with   the   greatest   decline   in  GDP,   do   have   a   larger  

propensity  for  migration.  However,  I  would  say  that  the  crisis  has  to  be  long-­‐term  and  deep  to  have  

an  impact.  The  phenomenon  you  are  referring  to  is  interesting  but,  so  far,  quite  small  scale.  It  relates  

to  migration  which  is  linked  to  the  crisis  in  Europe  on  the  one  hand  and  the  possibility  of  living  and  

working,  or  in  some  cases,  retiring,  in  a  former  colony,  where  conditions  are  improving  on  the  other.  

On   the   whole,   though,   migration   is   still   taking   predictable   forms,   involving   different   groups   of  

workers  moving  in  search  of  a  better  life,  whether  this  be  Latvian  doctors  working  in  Norway,  Polish  

care   workers   moving   to   the   UK,   or   Albanian   construction   workers   working   in   Italy.     Another  

important  phenomenon  is  what  some  sociologists  have  called   liquid  or  fluid  migration,  with  people  

maintaining  links,  and  moving  between  two  or  more  places  in  a  relatively  short  period  of  time  whilst  

keeping  residence  in  each  of  them.      

 

 

 

3.  Are  there  any  assessments  of  what  will  happen  after  the  Croatian  accession  to  the  EU?  What  will  

be   the   impact   of   the   moratorium   by   Germany?   Is   it   realistic   to   expect   a   greater   outflow   of   the  

population,   especially   the   highly   educated?   How   does   the   Croatian   situation   today   compare   with  

when  other  new  members  joined  the  EU?  

 

There   are   assessments   but   all   are   really   speculations.   Do   not   forget   that   one   of   the   reasons  why  

there  is  now  the  moratorium  on  free  movement  of  labour  in  the  EU  for  new  member  states  is  that  no  

one   predicted   the   very   large   movements   which   occurred   from   some   new   member   states   after  

enlargement  in  2004.  There  is  no  basis  for  suggesting  that  when  Croatia  joins  the  European  Union,  or  

when   the   moratoria   are   removed,   that   there   will   be   high   levels   of   out   migration.   Part   of   this   is  

because  there   is  a  kind  of  structured   immobility  built   in,  and  people  are  reluctant  to   leave  without  

clear   evidence   of   improving   their   life   chances.   At   the   same   time,   as   your   question   suggests,  

membership   of   the   European   Union   certainly   opens   up   opportunities   for   highly   skilled   and   highly  

educated  people  to  work  abroad.  Again,  though,  there  should  be  no  dramatic  change  as  most  of  the  

barriers   to  mobility   for   these   groups   have   already   been   removed.  We  would   expect  more   circular  

migration  of  the  highly  skilled  and,  perhaps,  in  specialist  fields  where  Croatia  cannot  match  richer  EU  

countries  in  terms  of  investments  in  research  facilities,  some  kind  of  brain  drain  of  natural  scientists.  

Another  uncertainty,  of  course,  relates  to  those  who  may  hold  a  Croatian  passport  as  well  as  another  

passport   from  the  former  Yugoslavia,  and  whose  permanent  address   is  outside  of  Croatia.  Some  of  

those  may  take  advantage  of  the  EU  passport  to  migrate  to  richer  EU  countries.  In  our  study,  we  call  

for   a   strengthening   of   information   and   support   to   potential   emigrants   and   potential   returnees,   as  

well   as   more   opportunities   for   Croatians   living   abroad   to   invest   in   and   support   sustainable  

development   in  Croatia.   In  addition,  do  not   forget   that  Croatia   is   an  ageing  population  and   it  may  

well  have  to  look,  in  the  future,  for  labour  from  abroad,  not  just  from  neighbouring  states  but  from  

further  afield.    

     

4.   How   could   Croatia   resolve   the   long-­‐term   negative   effects   of   migration   trends?  

 

I   would   say   that   it   is   negative   demographic   trends   that   need   to   be   addressed   of   which   negative  

migration   trends   are,   really,   only   a   small   part.   I   have   already   suggested   that   greater   attention   to  

immigration  will   probably  be  needed,  which  would  necessitate  not  only  more   flexible  policies  but,  

crucially,  a  change  in  cultural  attitudes  to  foreigners  and,  in  particular,  to  difference.  Croatia  needs  to  

develop   policies   on  migration  which   encourage   circular  migration;   it   needs   to   build   stronger   links  

with  its  neighbours  to  help  to  create  regional  labour  markets  so  that  shortages  in  one  country  can  be  

met  by  people  from  neighbouring  countries.  There  is  a  real  need  to  work  on  this  in  terms  f  seasonal  

work,  in  agriculture  and,  crucially,  in  tourism.  Croatia  needs  to  also  do  much  more  work  on  different  

migration   scenarios,   as   well   as   address   the   depopulation   and   decline   of   war   affected,   rural   and  

isolated   areas.  Without  much  more  mobility,   within   and   outside   Croatia,   and  without   support   for  

migrants  and  returnees,  much  of  the  positive  effects  of  migration  may  not  be  realised.