migration in poland in the period of transition – the ...olsztyn net migration rate per 1000...

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Migration in Poland in the period of transition – the adjustment to the labour

market changeMarek Kupiszewski

Project on Intergenerational Equity (PIE)International Workshop on Economics of

Intergenerational Equity in Transition Economies; March 10-11, 2005

Institute of Economic Research (IER), Hitotsubashi University; Kunitachi, Tokyo, Japan

Międzynarodowa Organizacja Fundacja na rzecz Ludności, Instytut Geografii i Przestrzennegodo spraw Migracji Migracji i Środowiska Zagospodarowania PAN

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Int'l Workshop on Economics of Intergenerational Equity

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Outline of the presentation• Remarks on migration data quality• Changes on the labour market in Poland after

1989• Theoretical background• Internal migration adjustment• International migration adjustment• In guise of conclusions: a substitution hypothesis

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Before we start – data quality warning

With the existing reliability of migration data we can speak on trends but not on numbers– Incorrect definitions– Underregistration of legal migrants– Illegal migration– Some forms of mobility not considered

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Changes on the labour market in Poland 1989-2004 in a nutshell (1)

- Restructurisation of industries and stateowned agriculture

- Costs controlling by enterprises

- Modification of demand for human capital

- Modification of renumeration patterns

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Changes on the labour market in Poland 1989-2004 in a nutshell (2)

• From labour demand to vacancy demand driveneconomy (Góra 1996)

• Unemployment: nonexisting under communism6.5% in 1990; 12.2% in 1991; has not dropped below 10% since 1991: 16,4% in 2000; 20,7% inFeb 2003 (maximum); 19,5% in Jan 2005.

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Economic theories of migration• Factor balancing labour demand/supply (neoclassical

macroeconomic theory of migration; Lewis)

• Individualised gain/loss (neoclassical microeconomic theory of migration; Sjaastad)

• Migration as a family insurance policy (new theory of migration; Stark)

• Migrants operate to large extent in 3d (dangerous, dirty, difficult) labour market (dual labour market theory; Piore)

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Internal migration adjustment

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Migration in Poland 1946 - 2003

-500,0

0,0

500,0

1000,0

1500,0

2000,0

2500,0

1946

1952

1955

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

Total migration Net urban migration Net rural migration

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Internal migration in Poland by main directions 1981–2002(%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

198119 8319 8519 8719 8919 9119 9319 9519 9719 9920 01

rural-ruralrural-urbanurban-ruralurban-urban

• Reduction of therole of emigrationfrom rural areas to both urban andrural areas

• Increasing role ofurban to ruralflows

• These changesare because ofthe far goingmodification oflabour markets

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0 50

Kilometers

100

Net Migration Rateper 1000 population

More than 50 (2)20 to <50 (22)10 to <20 (91)

5 to <10 (185)0 to <5 (718)

-5 to <0 (1019)-10 to <-5 (681)-20 to <-10 (274)-40 to <-20 (18)

Figure 3: Net migration by communes, 1994

• Wide spreadruraldepopulation

• Urban gains inall size classesof towns/cities

• Visible processofsuburbanization

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WARSZAWA

Gdańsk

Kraków

Białystok

Kielce

Katowice

Gorzów Wlkp.

Poznań

Bydgoszcz

Zielona Góra

Toruń

Łódź

Opole

Wrocław

Szczecin

Lublin

Rzeszów

Olsztyn

Net Migration Rateper 1000 population

More than 50 (3)20 to < 50 (47)10 to < 20 (121)

5 to < 10 (235)0 to < 5 (832)

-5 to < 0 (1201)-10 do -5 (499)-20 to < -10 (123)-40 to < -20 (8)

Figure 4: Net migration by communes, 2002

• Substantialreduction inruraldepopulation

• Reduced urbangains in all sizeclasses oftowns/cities

• Visible processofsuburbanization

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Commuting

• Widespread, often long-distance, state orenterprise subsidised commuting undercommunism (bi-career farmer-workers)

• Withdrawal of subsidies after 1989 resulted in:– Decline in commuting and consequent unemployment

or partial employment increase in peripherial areas– Development of new form of migration, mobility and

commuting

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Internal migration: concluding remarks

The most important effect of the economic change of the transition period on migration was the closing of state and enterprise supported flows and activation of purely economic mechanisms of migration

This has lead to reduction of flows from rural areas and small towns, especially in depressed and underdeveloped regions and retention of surplus labour in these areas.

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International migration adjustment

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Transformation of migration scene in Poland

• From emigration to emigration and

immigration countries

• From permanent emigration to various

forms of migration and mobility

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From permanent emigration under communism...

• Controlled by political police and used as a mean of influence

• Travel severely restricted (passport control, reporting, members of family retained in the country of origin)

• Sometime used as bargaining tool in negotiations with Western governments (ethnic migration)

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...to various forms of migration and mobility

• Trade tourism and petty trade• Smuggling and trading in human beings• Irregular short term labour migration with complex

strategies of survival (Okólski: Unfinished migration)• Legal short term migration controlled by bilateral

agreements• Migration of highly skilled• Settlement migration

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Complex strategies of illegal migrants:• Job search through friends and kin networks• „Chain” employment• Transport arrangements and service sector serving

illegal migrants

Gains and costs• Pecuniary gains and consequent to it investments• Double marginalization

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Post-enlargement migration

• Most old EU member states exercised the option to limit freedom of labour (ecxeptions: Ireland Sweden, the UK)

• No major otflows have been observed, but there arevisible flows to the UK and Ireland

• Brain drain especially in medical professions may be a possible threat

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In guise of conclusions: a substitution hypothesis

Hypothesis: various forms of short term international migration replace internal migration and commuting

• Historical tradition• Forced industrialization and its sad demise• Unskilled/semiskilled labour surplus in the

source and deficit in the destination

migration in poland in the period of transition – the ...olsztyn net migration rate per 1000...

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