Migration Statistics Improvement Programme – Overview of Phase 2

ONS Centre for Demography

Presentation Content

• Migration Stats Improvement Programme• MSIP Phase One achievements• MSIP Phase Two objectives• Phase 2 work-streams

• Reconciling administrative data and population estimates

• Distributing migrants to local authority• International migration

• Other work • Dependencies

MSIP Context

• The 2001 ‘Census gap’• ONS IMPS Programme (2003)

– LA Case Studies– The 2007 improvements package

• Major Reviews (2006-2008)– Inter-departmental Task Force on Migration

Statistics– TSC Report on ‘Counting the Population’

• Migration Statistics Improvement Programme (2008)

Population Estimates

Previous Year Resident Population

Add Natural Change

Add internal Migration

“Age On”

Add International Migration

+Births -Deaths

Patient registers

International Passenger Survey, MI

MSIP Vision

• Migration and Population Statistics meeting user needs:

• at the right time • covering the relevant populations • measuring change accurately (national and local) • detecting turning points

• Statistics trusted as authoritative by highly engaged users:

• based on range of developed best up-to-date sources • using enhanced transparent sustainable statistical

methods • with quality measures (and low gap with 2011 Census)

Summary of Migration Statistics Improvement Programme - Phase1

• revised mid-year population estimates• model based LA immigration estimates • introduction of a student adjustment

• changes to the IPS sample design• improved access to admin data sources• cross government migration indicators suite• on-going consultation with key stakeholders• new outputs: migrant indicators, short term

migrants, quarterly migration outputsPhase 2 is funded until March 2012

Phase 1 commenced April 2008 and led to:

• Incorporate stakeholder requirements gathered through the engagement process

• Develop a programme that focuses on delivering practical change to the process of making migration and population estimates within the funded period of the programme (up to March 2012)

• Ensure that research and deliverables are compatible with ‘Beyond 2011’ and 2011 Census QA

MSIP Phase 2: Planning Objectives

Phase 2 Workstreams

Reconciling Admin

Sources

Statistical Benefits ofE-borders

MigrantDistribution

Quality

User Engagement

Reconciling Administrative Sources Workstream

• Key deliverable – plausibility range and contingency adjustment strategy

• Quality assessment of admin sources

• Assessment of long/short term migrants

• Demographic analysisAge

Pop

Local Authority X

Contingency Adjustment

Time

Migrant Journey

Apply for a visa (non EEA)

Leave UK

Start work/course

Arrive in UK

HESA

E-borders

Patient Register

School Census

NPS (Migrant Worker Scan)

Lifetime Labour Market Database (NPS)

Electoral Register

Register with GP

Dependents start school

Election – register to vote??

E-borders

Activities

Admin Sources

Move within UK

Change GP

The migrant journey and administrative sources

Migrant Distribution Workstream

• Key deliverable – improved regional/local authority distribution of long and short term migrants

• Utilising admin sources to distribute migrants estimated by IPS (national/regional level)

• Solving the ‘intermediate geography’ issue.

IPS EstimateChildren - School Census

Workers - Lifetime Labourmarket DB (L2), Migrant Worker Scan,

Students - Higher Ed Stats Auth

General - Flag 4 Patient Register

E-Borders Workstream

• Key deliverable – Improved international migration estimates

• Short/Medium term – Use of flow data for improved IPS weighting and as a ‘lead indicator’ of change

• Long term – Use of travel histories to produce direct migration counts

Other Work

• Quality key deliverable – measurement of uncertainty around population estimates at LA level, building on ‘plausibility ranges’

• Ongoing user engagement – • Quarterly updates and research reports• ‘Roadshows’

• Further work on student moves utilising microdata

Dependencies

• 2011 Census • Demographic Quality Assurance• Measures of long and short term migrants possible for

the first time• Local Authority engagement

• Beyond 2011 Project• Looking at what might come after the 2011 Census• Assessing the feasibility of a range of options

• Comprehensive Spending Review