mining (con.l) 30 mining buy... · **** initiation note **** png jason robertson (analyst/corporate...
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**** INITIATION NOTE ****
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Jason Robertson (Analyst/Corporate Broker) +44 (0)20 3137 1906 [email protected] Christian Dennis (Corporate Broker) +44 (0)20 3137 1903 [email protected] Adrian Selby (Dealing Desk) +44 (0)20 3137 1905 [email protected] Graeme Dickson (CFD Sales) +44 (0)20 3411 1880 [email protected] Vishal Balasingham (Institutional Sales) +44 (0)20 3411 1881 [email protected]
INITIATION REPORT
CONNEMARA MINING (CON.L)
BUY Stock Data
Current Price: 19.75p
Market Cap: £4.0m
Shares Outstanding: 20.46m
Company Profile
Sector: Resource Exploration
Ticker: CON.L
Exchange: AIM ‐ London Website: connemara.com
AIM Admission: 31 July 2007
Activities
Exploration of zinc and other base metals in
Ireland.
Performance Data
52 Week Range: 10.9p to 34.2p
Key Metrics
Net Cash Estimate: £1m
Directors
John Teeling Chairman
Graham Reid Technical
Jim Finn FD
Vivian Byrne Non Exec
Major Shareholders
WB Nominees 19.6%
John Teeling (Ch) 4.9%
David Horgan 4.9%
Jim Finn (FD) 4.9%
Citicorp Investment 4.9%
Catherine Maguire 4.3%
Worldwide Nominees 3.4%
INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION
Last week’s highly encouraging exploration drilling results from Connemara’s Stonepark
project in County Limerick, Ireland provided investors with further confidence that a
sizeable zinc mineralisation could be present. This is part of a 10,000 metre drilling
campaign being conducted by Connemara and JV partner Teck Resources. In addition just
4.5km away Minco and Xstrata are undertaking an intensive 70,000 metre program on
the Pallas Green deposit. From what is known so far it would seem that both Stonepark
and Pallas Green could form part of the same orebody and be of world class resource
status.
With exploration accelerating at Stonepark and Pallas Green over the coming year and
more being learnt about the deposit, a number of corporate options could open up for
Connemara to advance or monetise its key project if either Teck Resources or Xstrata
decide to gain full control over what may be a single giant mineralisation system. Further
interest in the region comes from Vedanta, who recently acquired Anglo‐American’s
Lisheen zinc mine for $308m, which lies just 60km from Stonepark. With an abundance of
exploration newsflow anticipated from Connemara and its neighbours over the next 12‐
months, and the opportunity to buy into what may potentially form part of Irelands’ next
significant zinc mine, we recommend Connemara Mining as a SPECULATIVE BUY.
KEY PROJECT & LOCATION STRENGTHS Exploring in elephant territory, Ireland is the number one for zinc discoveries per square
kilometre in the world. The Navan mine is the largest zinc mine in Europe. In addition to Teck
other majors such as Xstrata and Lundin Mining are pursing exploration JVs in the country.
Extensive strategic portfolio of 37 exploration licences in Ireland covering over 1,000 sq kms. The
Group is the fourth largest ground holder by size in the country.
Has the technical and financial backing of JV partner Canadian major Teck Resources at
Stonepark and Newcastle West.
Following a £1m Placing in July 2010 Connemara is funded for at least the next 12‐months to
continue its JV with Teck and pursue its own 100% interests.
A number of high grade discoveries have been made on Connemara’s Stonepark licence. The
mineralised area covers at least 650 metres in length by 100 to 150 metres wide and is open to
the north and south.
At the closest point the Stonepark discovery lies just 4.5km from Minco/Xstrata’s Pallas Green
deposit, upon which a JORC resource of 11.3mt at 10.22% zinc has been proved up. Stonepark
and Pallas Green could be part of the same orebody.
In addition to newsflow from Connemara’s own 10,000 metre program at Stonepark this year,
the stock could react to any positive newsflow coming from neighbouring Pallas Green where
70,000 metres are being drilled this year.
Potential for new zinc discoveries on 100% owned licences such as Thurles which lies just 4km
from the Lisheen mine, along with 25% JV property Newcastle West that is near to Stonepark.
30 JULY 2010
30 JULY 2010
2 CONNEMARA MINING
BACKGROUND
Connemara was formed back in 2006 and gained an AIM listing the following year after a Placing
at 35p raised net proceeds of £1m (gross). The Group has assembled a portfolio of 37 licences in
Ireland, covering around 35 sq kms each. The main exploration targets are zinc and lead, followed
by barite, silver, gold and platinum group metals. The key licence block at Stonepark in County
Limerick is being pursued as part of a 25%/75% Joint Venture partnership with Canadian major
Teck Resources, along with nearby Newcastle West interests. The remaining 21 licences are 100%
owned interests. To earn its 25% stake, Teck is required to spend C$3m during the first three years
of the JV deal to the end of 2010 and at the same time agree to certain levels of expenditure each
year.
Since inception Connemara’s main exploration focus has been Stonepark, where a sizeable zinc‐
lead mineralisation area of 650 metres by at least 100 metres has been defined. Several large
economic zinc grades have been encountered including an intersection of 26.64% zinc over 4.25
metres, which was announced in April 2010, as part of this year’s 10,000 metre drill campaign.
This is far in excess of the grades found at many typical zinc mines in the world that are in the
range of around 4% to 8%. Although Connemara and its JV partner have not defined a resource at
Stonepark, it is interesting to note that only 4.5km away Xstrata and AIM listed Minco have
proved up a JORC resource of 11.3m tonnes at 10.22% zinc at its more advanced Pallas Green
property. The thinking is that both Stonepark and Pallas Green could form part of the same
orebody, covering a size of at least 10 sq kms.
A second funding occurred more recently in July 2010 with £1.06m raised in a 20p Placing, which
provides Connemara with enough funds to the end of 2011, which includes two years worth of
expenditure for the JV with Teck Resources of £0.5m. The remaining cash is likely to be earmarked
for the Group’s 100% owned Thurles licence block which lies near the Lisheen zinc mine, along
with Nenagh.
LICENCE OVERVIEW
With a total of 37 exploration licences in Ireland covering over 1,000 sq kms, the Group is the
fourth largest ground holder by size in Ireland. All the licence blocks are located along important
basement trends, where economic deposits have been previously found. Stonepark lies along the
Rathdowney trend which runs south west to north east across Ireland where both the Lisheen and
Galmoy zinc mines are located. In County Meath and Cavan, the Group’s Lough Sheelin licences
are in the Longford‐Down Trend, from where the Navan mine is located.
(Figure 1: Source ‐ Connemara Mining ‐ July 2009).
30 JULY 2010
3 CONNEMARA MINING
STONEPARK
The Stonepark discoveries form part of Connemara’s six contiguous Monaster Block prospecting
licences covering 184 sq kms in County Limerick. Of geological interest is that a large portion of the
block is underlain by Waulsortian Limestone, which is host to several large base metal deposits such
as the Lisheen and Galmoy zinc mines. Lisheen itself is a mere 60km northeast of Stonepark. With
Lisheen expected to close in 2014, this opens up the possibility that production facilities at the site
could be used to treat ore from any future mine at Stonepark.
Of greater note is the presence of the more advanced Minco/Xstrata discovery at Tobermalug Pallas
Green that lies only 4.5km at the closest point to the Stonepark discovery (Figure 2). AIM listed
Minco has already proved up an Inferred JORC resource of 11.3m tonnes at 10.22% zinc and 1.91%
lead. This resource could be revised upwards within the next 6‐months to nearer the 20m tonne
mark, once all results from this year’s 70,000 metre drill programme are incorporated. Underlining
further the zinc potential for this area of Ireland, Belmore/Lundin Mining have revealed a number
of high grade zinc/silver widths at a distance of around 30km from Stonepark.
(Figure 2: Stonepark/Pallas Green. Source ‐ Connemara Mining ‐ July 2009, does not include the recent holes
reported by Minco at Knockroe on 28 July.)
So far drilling conducted by operator Teck Resources has been extremely encouraging with a
number of high grade results delineated over three discovery areas. The most recent drilling results
in July 2010 indicate the main discovery zone that was first found in August 2009 now covers at
least 650 metres in length and between 100 and 150 metres wide, and is open to the north and
south. Around 1.7 km to the south of this lies the initial discovery zone that was found in late 2007,
which may link up to the main discovery zone, but is more likely to be a separate zone. More
recently in June 2010, another high grade discovery just 550 metres south west of the main
discovery zone was found which could be a new zone.
In April this year hole 45 returned the highest intersection to date with 7.45 metres at 19.24% zinc
and 8.52% lead at a depth from 209 metres in the main discovery zone. This included a bonanza
grade of 26.64% zinc and 12.3% lead from a smaller intersection of 4.25 metres. The deposit would
appear to be flat from what we know so far as the zinc/lead mineralisation has been encountered at
depths of between 195 and 230 metres. This should make any future mining much easier than a
sloping deposit. More recently from Minco in late July, we learnt of further high grade finds of up to
19.9% zinc at Knockroe which is 2.5km from Stonepark away. The mineralisation is much deeper
than Stonepark at 443 to 520 metres which could indicate a new layer or zone in the area.
Drilling at Stonepark is due to continue throughout this year with 10,000 metres planned using two
rigs to drill 30 holes. This will build upon the knowledge gained in 2009, when over 8,000 metres
were drilled, along with two previous campaigns in 2008 and 2007. If results continue to be positive
the JV partners may decide to ramp up exploration in 2011 by using seven rigs. With an intensive
exploration programme being conducted at Minco’s Pallas Green project, along with Connemara’s
30 JULY 2010
4 CONNEMARA MINING
own Stonepark project this year our understanding of the area should improve and we may know
whether both deposits form part of the same orebody. One question is whether the mineralisation
(Figure 2) runs north east to south west thereby connecting the Stonepark and Pallas Green
deposits or in the opposite direction. If it does run north east to south west it could rival in size
those of existing zinc mines at Lisheen and Galmoy.
OTHER LICENCES
Newcastle West (10 licences covering 375 sq kms)
The JV licences are south west of the Stonepark/Pallas Green projects in County Limerick, and
prospective for base metal mineralisation, but have been relatively underexplored. A number of soil
anomalies and drill targets have already been identified following the processing of historic data
and recent field data analysis. The hope is that the programme to drill 15 holes can be brought
forward from 2011 to the end of this year.
(Figure 3: Newcastle West. Source ‐ Connemara Mining ‐ July 2009).
Lough Sheelin (5 Licences – 171 sq kms) ‐ The licences stretch over County Meath and Cavan and are
located just 20km from the enormous zinc/lead Navan mine operated by Boliden, which has a
resource of 69.9m tonnes at a combined zinc and lead grade of 12.7% zinc. The close proximity of
this significant world class mine and the similar geology of Lough Sheelin to Navan could make for
some exciting exploration times ahead. The plan is to seek a JV partner at Lough Sheelin before
conducting any extensive work.
Thurles (3 Licences – 101 sq kms) ‐ The Thurles block in County Tipperary is located only 4km south
of the Lisheen Mine and were previously held by Anglo American. Connemara is looking to conduct
follow up work to fully define a geophysical anomaly that has already been detected and potentially
do some drilling work either at the end of 2010 or early next year.
Nenagh (4 Licences – 138 sq kms) ‐ During 2010 the Group plans to perform a reconnaissance
geophysical survey across three zones previously identified that could warrant detailed exploration.
The permit block is located in County Tipperary and is 1.2km north of the worked out Silvermines
deposit that hosted 17.7m tonnes at 6.4% zinc and 2.5% lead.
Moate (4 Licences – 138 sq kms) ‐ The licence block in Westmeath is situated 40km northeast of the
former Tynagh deposit, which hosted 9.2m tonnes at 5% zinc and 6.2% lead. The management hope
to add adjoining licences to the block if they become available.
Mine River (4 Licences – 130 sq kms) – The licences in County Wicklow and Wexford are very near to
the old Caim Mine, which was in production back in the early 1800’s.
30 JULY 2010
5 CONNEMARA MINING
ZINC IN IRELAND
Ireland is a world‐class province for zinc deposits where a number of large tonnage orebodies have
been discovered. In terms of zinc discoveries per square kilometre, it is number one and number
two for lead. Eighteen deposits have been discovered in the country over the last five decades, the
most notable being the enormous Navan deposit (69.9mt @12.7% combined zinc and lead), Lisheen
(18.9mt @ 14.95% zinc+lead) and Silvermines (17.7mt @ 8.9% zinc+lead).
In terms of output, Ireland produced 36% of Western Europe’s zinc and 28% of its lead in 2009. The
Navan mine operated by Swedish mining and smelting group Boliden is the largest zinc mine in
Europe and 6th largest in the world. The Lisheen mine was recently acquired by Vedanta from Anglo
America for $308m and is expected to close in 2014 when its ore reserves are exhausted.
DIRECTORS
John Teeling, Chairman.
A serial resources entrepreneur, John is the Chairman of several AIM listed resources companies
including Petrel Resources, Persian Gold (to be renamed Clontarf Energy plc) and African Diamonds.
He also has interests in a number of industrial concerns such as Cooley Distillery. Mr Teeling
lectured at University College Dublin in business and finance for over 20 years.
Jim Finn, Finance Director.
With a professional background in accounting and resources, Jim has led the listing procedure for 7
AIM companies. His experience includes 12 years as Finance Director for Minco plc.
Graham Reid, Technical Director.
A geologist with over 30 years of experience. Connemara has contracted its prospecting and
exploration to B.R.G (Geotechnics) Lts, which is a junior exploration company that Graham founded.
Vivian Byrne, Non‐Executive Director.
Mr Byrne is the Technical Director of SLR Consulting Ireland and boasts over 40 years of experience
in the resources industry, which included a period in which he was a senior executive of RTZ’s
European exploration division.
12‐MONTH SHARE GRAPH
(Figure 4: Source ‐ Alpha Terminal).
30 JULY 2010
6 CONNEMARA MINING
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