Minnesota Schools And Demographic Change

Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer

Mn Dept of Administration

January 2008

Three Demographic Mega Trends

Aging

Suburbanization

Increased diversity

The Next 15 Years Will See Changes In Growth In Key Age Groups

2.7%

1.5%

1.5%

1.3%

0.6%

1.3%

4.0%

0.5%

-0.5%

0.7%

-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

Long-Term Care (85+)

Retirement (60-64)

Prime Working Age (16-64)

Higher Education (18-24)

E-12 Education (5-17)

Average Annual Growth Rate

1990-2005 2005-2020

State Demographer projections revised 2007

Minnesota Will See a 30 Percent Jump in Workers Turning Age 62 Beginning 2008

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

7/05 to7/06

7/06 to7/07

7/07 to7/08

7/08 to7/09

7/09 to7/10

7/10 to7/11

7/11 to7/12

Year Turning Age 62

Wo

rke

d W

ith

in P

as

t 5

ye

ars

2005 ACS

Competition For The Future Workforce Will Increase

6.8%

4.5%

-1.6%-2.2%

13.0%

-1.2%

-3.5% -3.0%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20

Per

cen

t C

han

ge

18-2

4 US

Mn

Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer revised 2007

Total Minnesota High School Graduates Will Peak In 2008-09

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

1990

-199

1

1991

-199

2

1992

-199

3

1993

-199

4

1994

-199

5

1995

-199

6

1996

-199

7

1997

-199

8

1998

-199

9

1999

-200

0

2000

-200

1

2001

-200

2

2002

-200

3

2003

-200

4

2004

-200

5

2005

-200

6

2006

-200

7

2007

-200

8

2008

-200

9

2009

-201

0

2010

-201

1

2011

-201

2

2012

-201

3

2013

-201

4

2014

-201

5

History Forecast

State Demographer projection

Current Enrollment Is About 20% Larger In Grades 9-12 Than In Grades 1-4

40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000

KG123456789

101112

Grade

2006-07 Enrollment

Mn Dept of Education enrollment data

The Boom Generation Starts Turning 65 in 2011

65+ Passes School Age Around 2020Budget Priorities May Change

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

18-24

65+

5-17

Census counts & State Demographer projection, revised 2007

Population Change

Loss

Gain Under 1,000

Gain 5,000 to 1,000

Gain More Than 5,000

Population Change 2000-04Census Bureau Estimate

The Metro Donut Is Growing Rapidly While Many Rural Areas See Loss

Upper Midwest Becoming More Diverse But Still Less Than The Nation

4%

6%

6%

9%

9%

24%

9%

14%

9%

13%

14%

33%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Iowa

Minnesota

North Dakota

South Dakota

Wisconsin

United States

Percent Population of Color

2005

1990

Note: Population except white alone, not Hispanic, 2005 Census Bureau estimate

Students Of Color Are Increasing While White Students Are Declining

4585,923

19,533 19,515

-59,202

-13,773

-70,000

-60,000

-50,000

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

Am Indian Asian Hispanic Black White Total

Ch

an

ge

En

roll

me

nt

20

00

-01

to

20

06

-07

Mn Dept of Education data

Twin Cities Metro See Large Difference In Trends Between Central Cities And Rest

-687

-5,517

2,402

-5,255-7,201

-16,258

386

10,438 11,128

20,413

-26,499

15,866

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

Am Indian Asian Hispanic Black White Total

Ch

an

ge

En

roll

me

nt

20

00

-01

to

20

06

-07

Mpls St Paul

Rest of Metro

Mn Dept of Education data

Minnesota’s Children Are More Diverse Than Older People

20%

16%17%

12%

8%6%

5%3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Under 1

0

10 to

19

20 to

29

30 to

39

40 to

49

50 to

59

60 to

69

70+

Age Group

Pe

rce

nt

Min

ori

ty

2000 Census

Students Speaking Non-English Language At Home: Much Of The Growth In ESL Enrollment Is Directly Related To Growth In

Local Employment

27.6%30.5%30.6%

31.6%32.8%

36.6%37.3%37.5%

43.4%18.7%

11.0%9.8%

3.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Westbrook-Walnut GroveSleepy Eye

MinneapolisColumbia Heights

Pelican RapidsBrooklyn Center

RichfieldWorthington

St. PaulNational 03State 06-07State 04-05State 93-94

Percent of Students in 2006-07

Source: Mn Dept of Education data, Districts of more than 100 enrollment.

Education Is The Key To Productivity

Minnesota High School Graduation Ratio

57%

85%

60% 62%

89%85%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

AmericanIndian

Asian Hispanic Black White Total

2 Y

r A

ve R

ate

2004-05 through 2005-06 graduates. Based on 10th grade enrollment three years earlier.