missouri river basin water management fall 2016 public ...€¦ · missouri river basin water...
TRANSCRIPT
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US Army Corps of EngineersBUILDING STRONG®
Missouri River Basin Water ManagementFall 2016 Public Meetings
Smithville, MOCouncil Bluffs, IAPierre, SDBismarck, NDFort Peck, MT
October 5th
October 5th
October 6th
October 6th
October 7th
11:00 a.m.5:00 p.m.
11:00 a.m.6:00 p.m.
10:00 a.m.
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Fort Peck
Oahe Big Bend
Fort Randall
Gavins Point
GarrisonMontana
NorthDakota
Wyoming
Nebraska
KansasMissouri
Iowa
SouthDakota
Colorado
NorthDakota
Missouri River Mainstem Reservoir System
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Our Mission
Recreation
Water Supply Water Quality Control
Navigation
Flood Control
IrrigationFish and Wildlife Including Threatened and
Endangered Species
Hydropower
Regulate Missouri River Mainstem Reservoirs to Support Congressionally Authorized Purposes
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Missouri River Mainstem SystemStorage Zones and Allocations
Exclusive Flood Control 6%
Carryover Multiple Use 53%
Permanent Pool 25%
0
17.6
56.1
72.4
67.7
72.8
StorageIn MAF*
33.9
Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 16%
Historic max - 2011
Historic min - 2007
57.4
6
Oct 2, 2016
*Storages updated in August 2013 based on reservoir surveys.
We are here
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Mainstem Reservoir Storage Capacity
0
5
10
15
20
25
Fort Peck Garrison Oahe Big Bend Fort Randall Gavins Point
Permanent Carryover Annual Flood Exclusive Flood
Million Acre-Feet
7
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May, June and July
March and April
March through October
Runoff Components
2016 Forecast = 22.7 MAF, 90% of average*
Mountain SnowpackPlains Snowpack Rainfall
8*October 1 forecast; average runoff is 25.3 MAF
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Plains Snowpack
9Source: NOAA National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC)
March 1, 2016
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02468
101214161820222426
O N D J F M A M J J A S
Inch
es o
f Wat
er E
quiv
alen
t
Total Fort Peck to Garrison
2015-16 1981-2010 Ave
Missouri River Basin2015-16 Mountain Snowpack
month
Source: USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) National Water and Climate Center
month
10
02468
101214161820222426
O N D J F M A M J J A S
Inch
es o
f Wat
er E
quiv
alen
t
Total above Fort Peck
2015-16 1981-2010 Ave
Peak – 95%April 1 Peak – 89%
April 2
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Precipitation - Percent of NormalPrevious 180 Days
Previous 90 Days
Source: National Weather Service, Missouri Basin River Forecast Center (MBRFC)
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Long-Term OutlooksTemperature and Precipitation
14Source: National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Oct-Nov-Dec Oct-Nov-Dec
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Missouri River Mainstem SystemAnnual Runoff above Sioux City, IA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Million Acre-Feet
U.D.
L.D.L.Q.
U.Q.
Med.
10%
90% 75%
25%
50%
34.5 MAF
16.119.3
30.6
24.6
Historic Drought Periods
2016
15Year
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Missouri River Runoff above Sioux City, IA 2016 Actual and Forecast
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016 Average Forecast
Million Acre-Feet
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Fall / Winter Releases
17
Gavins Point Dam winter releases will be reduced to winter rate beginning approximately November 21st (normal navigation season)
Will closely monitor channel/ice conditions between reservoirs and downstream of Gavins Point Dam
Gavins Point Dam winter releases of at least 17 kcfs (1000 cfs) to complete evacuation of stored flood waters
Expected releases in kcfs:Nov Dec Jan Feb
Fort Peck 4.5 5.5 6.5 6.5Garrison 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.0 Gavins Point 24.0 17.0 17.0 17.0
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Results of 2016 Regulation and Planned Operation for
Authorized Purposes in 2017
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Current Reservoir Levels – October 2, 2016
2220.1
Exclusive Flood ControlAnnual Flood Control &
Multiple Use
Carryover Multiple Use
Permanent Pool
2250
2220.1
Exclusive Flood ControlAnnual Flood Control &
Multiple Use
Carryover Multiple Use
Permanent Pool
2220.1
Exclusive Flood ControlAnnual Flood Control &
Multiple Use
Carryover Multiple Use
Permanent Pool
2220.1
Exclusive Flood ControlAnnual Flood Control &
Multiple Use
Carryover Multiple Use
Permanent Pool
2246
2234
2160
2030
18541850
1837.5
1775
1673
16201617
1607.5
1540
1415
13751365
1350
1320
1240
Fort Peck
Oahe
Garrison
Fort Randall
2233.4
1838.4
1609.8 1352.4
0.6 feet below base of Flood Control zone
2.4 feet above base of Flood Control zone 19
Elevation in feet msl
Elevation in feet msl
Elevation in feet msl
Elevation in feet msl
0.9 feet above base of Flood Control zone
2.3 feet above base of Flood Control zone
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45
50
55
60
65
70
75
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F
System Storage 2016-2017 Draft AOP
Top of Exclusive Flood Control – 72.4 MAF
Base of Exclusive Flood Control – 67.7 MAF
Million Acre-Feet
Base of Annual Flood Control – 56.1 MAF
2016 2017 2018
System Storage Check
20
Upper Decile and Lower DecileMedian
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2215
2220
2225
2230
2235
2240
2245
2250
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F
Fort Peck 2016-2017 Draft AOP
Top of Exclusive Flood Control – 2250 feet msl
Base of Exclusive Flood Control – 2246 feet msl
Elevation in feet msl
Base of Annual Flood Control – 2234 feet msl
2016 2017 201821
Upper Decile and Lower DecileMedian
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1820
1825
1830
1835
1840
1845
1850
1855
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F
Garrison2016-2017 Draft AOP
Top of Exclusive Flood Control – 1854 feet msl
Base of Exclusive Flood Control – 1850 feet msl
Elevation in feet msl
Base of Annual Flood Control – 1837.5 feet msl
2016 2017 201822
Upper Decile and Lower DecileMedian
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1590
1595
1600
1605
1610
1615
1620
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F
Oahe 2016-2017 Draft AOP
Top of Exclusive Flood Control – 1620 feet msl
Base of Exclusive Flood Control – 1617 feet msl
Elevation in feet msl
Base of Annual Flood Control – 1607.5 feet msl
2016 2017 201823
Upper Decile and Lower DecileMedian
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Flood Damages Prevented by Mainstem DamsIndexed to 2015 Levels
26.2
13.5
8.2
0.4
3.32.1
8.6
0.1
3.2
0.5 0.4
3.3 3.82.6
5.9
0.1 0.21.0 1.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30 Billion Dollars
24
Total Damages Prevented = $58.2 billion
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2016►All 2015 flood water evacuated from reservoir
system by late January 2016►System storage peaked on June 22 at 60.1
MAF, utilizing 25 percent of the system’s flood control storage
2017►All scenarios start next year’s runoff season at
or below the base of the annual flood control zone
Flooding can still occur due to downstream rainfall
Flood Control
25
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14 17
Gavins Point Fort Randall Big Bend Oahe Garrison Fort Peck ForecastYear
Billion kWh
Hydropower
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Missouri RiverTotal Navigation Tonnage
0123456789
10
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Commercial Waterway Materials Sand and Gravel Estimated
Million Tons
27Year
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2016 – Full service, full length season 2017 – March 15 Storage Check
► Full service level flow support median and above runoff► Reductions of 1,700 and 1,900 cfs for lower quartile and lower
decile respectively► Target locations: Sioux City, Omaha, Nebraska City and
Kansas City
2017 – July 1 Storage Check► Full length season (all runoff scenarios)
• 10-day extension for upper quartile and upper decile runoff► Full service level flow support for median runoff and above► Reductions of 2,400 and 3,600 cfs for lower quartile and lower
decile, respectively
Navigation
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Water Supply – Water Quality
2016►Near average releases and reservoir elevations
• Water supply intakes, recreation areas, irrigation, and marinas
►Gavins Point Dam winter releases of 17 kcfs 2017
►Near normal reservoir levels and releases►Gavins Point Dam winter releases of 16 kcfs
under median runoff
Irrigation – Recreation
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Steady to rising levels at upper three reservoirs during forage fish spawn►Favor Fort Peck and Oahe if runoff below
normal
Minimize periods of zero releases at Fort Randall Coldwater habitat will be monitored
2017 Fish and Wildlife
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Endangered Species Act of 1973
Pallid SturgeonListed “Endangered” 1990
Piping PloverListed “Threatened” 1986
Interior Least TernListed “Endangered” 1986
Each Federal agency shall... ensure that any action authorized, funded, or carried out by such agency… is not likely to jeopardize the continued existence of any endangered or threatened species or result in the destruction or adverse modification of habitat…
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Regulation from mid-May to late August Availability of sandbar habitat remains high Adult populations of both species remain strong
► Highest recorded populations on the upper Missouri since monitoring began
3-year running average fledge ratios met for both species
Weather events and predation affected nest success and productivity
2016 Piping Plover and Least TernThreatened and Endangered Species
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Gavins Point releases►Steady release – flow to target►Cycle Gavins Point releases
Intra-day peaking patterns – Garrison and Fort Randall Measures to minimize take
►Utilize Kansas River projects for navigation support
►Target flows may not be met in reaches without commercial navigation
2017 Piping Plover and Least TernThreatened and Endangered Species
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2003 Amended Biological Opinion –Reasonable and Prudent Alternative Neither pulse conducted in 2016 Neither pulse planned in 2017
►Pursuing independent science advisory panel (ISAP) recommendations
►Forego spring pulse while developing management plan
Bi-Modal Spring Pulse – Pallid SturgeonThreatened and Endangered Species
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Summary
All flood storage space available to start 2017 runoff season Near normal releases and reservoir levels
(median runoff) Good service to all authorized purposes
35