Mitigation Research FindingsNational Policy Workshop, June 2011,

Agricultural GHG emissions (IPCC)• 10–12% global anthropogenic GHG emissions,

6.8 Gt of CO2e• HIGHER than transport, power and industrial

sectors• 74% from developing countries (increasing)

Indirect• Land use change 17- 18% - higher than all

direct agricultural sources

Africa’s Low Contribution to GHG Emissions

USA = 22 tUK = 8.9 tSouth Africa = 8.3 tLibya = 8 tGabon = 2.9 t Africa’s contribution to

greenhouse China = 2.8 t gases is insignificant, except for land Zimbabwe = 2.6 t use changeNigeria = 1.6 t Agriculture: Highest emitters:

SouthKenya = 0.3 t Asia, Southeast Asia and LatinTanzania = 0.2 t AmericaBurkina Faso = 0.1 t

Source: Ange, FARA 2010, 1997 data

Emissions from land use change in Africa

• Most CO2 from land use changes (17% of total GHG emissions) originates from the tropics (8.5Gt CO2e/yr)

• Africa contributes 20% • 50% of annual global carbon from

burning natural vegetation is from Africa.

• Wind born dust (increased by desertification and soil degradation) adds to effect of warming.

Source: Ange, FARA 2010

Winrock International: Sandra Brown, Alex

Grais, Stephen Ambagis, and Timothy Pearson

Managing mitigation and food security• Improve emissions estimates & baselines• Estimate mitigation potential• Management implications

Improved emissions calculations

• Activity data on GHG sources, e.g., livestock numbers, fertilizer consumption

• Emission factors for GHG sources

• Combine activity data with emission factors to produce estimates of GHG emissions for

agriculture

• Remote sensing data for land area (2006)

Total annual GHG emissions 1,000 t CO2e, from land-use change, livestock, nitrogen fertilizer consumption

and fires in grazing lands (Brown et al 2011)

Region CountryLand-Use Change

LivestockNitrogen Fertilizer

Grazing Area Burned

TotalTotal

from NC*East Africa Ethiopia 7,339 41,966 339 1,254 50,897 32,728

Kenya 1,812 11,988 323 232 14,356 12,088 Tanzania 1,833 13,935 42 1,736 17,546 28,017 Uganda 1,112 6,204 18 524 7,858 5,797

Subtotal 12,097 74,093 722 3,745 90,657 78,629

West Africa Burkina Faso 273 8,779 18 306 9,377 4,501 Ghana 1,664 1,865 55 491 4,076 4,637 Mali 440 9,270 64 241 10,015 7,036 Niger 31 10,405 14 9 10,460 6,231 Senegal 369 3,364 84 249 4,066 4,514 Subtotal 2,778 33,683 235 1,297 37,993 26,919

Grand Total 14,874 107,776 957 5,043 128,649 105,548

Increases in cropland area West Africa 2001-2006

Area of grazing lands burned 2001-2007

Burned area data from http://bioval.jrc.ec.europa.eu/products/burnt_areas_L3JRC/GlobalBurntAreas2000-2007.php

Brown et al, 2011

Reduce soil CO2 emissions?

• Severely degraded grazing lands -> Improved management with medium or high inputs 2 to 6 t CO2e/ha/yr

• Rainfed cultivation with full tillage -> Reduced tillage with different levels of nutrient inputs 0.5 to 5 t CO2e/ha/yr• Reduced tillage rainfed cultivation -> Native ecosystems 1.0 t CO2e/ha/yr to 4.1 t CO2e/ha/yr • Combined mosaic vegetation (shifting cultivation) -> Native ecosystems 1-8 t CO2e/ha/yr if above ground biomass C included: or 5-13 t CO2e/ha/yr

Scenarios

Opportunities to reduce emissions or increase sequestration in Mali

Management option Mitigation Potential Actions required

Livestock High Technical options?

Soil C sequestration Moderate Incentives? Monitoring?

Reduced burning Moderate Technical options?

Land rehabilitation Moderate Investment

Fertilizer Low Future efficiencies, sustainable intensification?

Questions• Current soil carbon stocks?• Extent of degraded lands?• Effects of changing management? Practicality? Incentives? • Alternatives to burning and better controlling fire?

Improving measurement

• Reduce scale of analysis and focus on key agricultural areas of each country

• Use higher resolution remote sensing data for more accurate data on land cover/land use and area burned

• Improve monitoring of activities:– number of ruminant animals– quantity of N fertilizer used– carbon stocks of burned areas of grazing lands

Other research relevant to Mali• Baseline emissions and scenarios–site level• GHG quantification - Simple and cost effective MRV - Livestock system inventory methods - Regional capacity building • Incentives - Costs, benefits and adoption barriers - Delivery mechanisms

Other CCAFS research• Improving carbon market benefits for farmers – EcoAgriculture Partners+, E. Africa + CCI

• Intensification of cocoa farming to reduce deforestation ( IITA, Ghana)

•Role of agriculture in national REDD+ readiness proposals – Gabrielle Kissinger

Source: Kissinger 2011

Role

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Improving benefits from carbon market projects involving farmer

7 projects In collaboration with Ecoagriculture, ICRAF:• Cocoa Carbon Initiative, Ghana• Vi Agroforestry, CARE, TIST, Kenya • Humbo Reforestation Project, World Vision, Ethiopia• Ecotrust, NFA, Uganda

Lessons- Real benefits from yields, not payments ($2/yr) - Need to decrease costs and risks- Pre-existing institutions, upfront finance critical-Monitoring livelihoods not a priority

Other research relevant to West Africa Mali

• Role of agriculture in national REDD+ readiness proposals – Gabrielle Kissinger

• Improving carbon market benefits for farmers – EcoAgriculture Partners+, Africa

• Intensification of cocoa farming to reduce deforestation ( IITA, Ghana)

Mapped distribution of increases in cropland area for East Africa 2001 - 2006

Brown et al, 2011

Total annual GHG emissions 1,000 t CO2e, from land-use change, livestock, nitrogen fertilizer consumption

and fires in grazing lands (Brown et al 2011)

Region CountryLand-Use Change

LivestockNitrogen Fertilizer

Grazing Area Burned

TotalTotal

from NC*East Africa Ethiopia 7,339 41,966 339 1,254 50,897 32,728

Kenya 1,812 11,988 323 232 14,356 12,088 Tanzania 1,833 13,935 42 1,736 17,546 28,017 Uganda 1,112 6,204 18 524 7,858 5,797

Subtotal 12,097 74,093 722 3,745 90,657 78,629

West Africa Burkina Faso 273 8,779 18 306 9,377 4,501 Ghana 1,664 1,865 55 491 4,076 4,637 Mali 440 9,270 64 241 10,015 7,036 Niger 31 10,405 14 9 10,460 6,231 Senegal 369 3,364 84 249 4,066 4,514 Subtotal 2,778 33,683 235 1,297 37,993 26,919

Grand Total 14,874 107,776 957 5,043 128,649 105,548

Total annual GHG emissions 1,000 t CO2e, from land-use change, livestock, nitrogen fertilizer consumption

and fires in grazing lands (Brown et al 2011)

Region CountryLand-Use Change

LivestockNitrogen Fertilizer

Grazing Area Burned

TotalTotal

from NC*East Africa Ethiopia 7,339 41,966 339 1,254 50,897 32,728

Kenya 1,812 11,988 323 232 14,356 12,088 Tanzania 1,833 13,935 42 1,736 17,546 28,017 Uganda 1,112 6,204 18 524 7,858 5,797

Subtotal 12,097 74,093 722 3,745 90,657 78,629

West Africa Burkina Faso 273 8,779 18 306 9,377 4,501 Ghana 1,664 1,865 55 491 4,076 4,637 Mali 440 9,270 64 241 10,015 7,036 Niger 31 10,405 14 9 10,460 6,231 Senegal 369 3,364 84 249 4,066 4,514 Subtotal 2,778 33,683 235 1,297 37,993 26,919

Grand Total 14,874 107,776 957 5,043 128,649 105,548

Total annual GHG emissions 1,000 t CO2e from land-use change, livestock, nitrogen fertilizer consumption

and fires in grazing lands (Brown et al 2011)

Region CountryLand-Use Change

LivestockNitrogen Fertilizer

Grazing Area Burned

TotalTotal

from NC*East Africa Ethiopia 7,339 41,966 339 1,254 50,897 32,728

Kenya 1,812 11,988 323 232 14,356 12,088 Tanzania 1,833 13,935 42 1,736 17,546 28,017 Uganda 1,112 6,204 18 524 7,858 5,797

Subtotal 12,097 74,093 722 3,745 90,657 78,629

West Africa Burkina Faso 273 8,779 18 306 9,377 4,501 Ghana 1,664 1,865 55 491 4,076 4,637 Mali 440 9,270 64 241 10,015 7,036 Niger 31 10,405 14 9 10,460 6,231 Senegal 369 3,364 84 249 4,066 4,514 Subtotal 2,778 33,683 235 1,297 37,993 26,919

Grand Total 14,874 107,776 957 5,043 128,649 105,548

Mapping vulnerability to climate change

Pa = pasture, Cr = irrigated cropping, Lg = length of growing period >= 60 days.

Evaluation of Forest Carbon Partnership Facility R-PPs: Ghana

Is proposed REDD+ strategy adequate to affect agricultural drivers• Need more info: clearer after policy studies completed• Mainstream REDD+ in new low carbon growth plan• Reform tree tenure and benefit sharing for smallholders• Promote cocoa compatible with REDD+, e.g. shade tolerant

spp.

Are there clear enough multisectoral links to affect agricultural drivers?

• ENRAC and National Climate Change Committee well positioned • How will low carbon growth plan support coordination? (spatial plans, legal tools) Kissinger 2011