mobile innovations forecast phase 1: enabling technologies
DESCRIPTION
The Mobile Innovations Forecast is a four-part framework for analysing and understanding mobile innovation. The four parts are: enabling technologies; new technological capabilities; new use cases and new business models. The four parts are explored in a series of articles over the coming months. The first part, enabling technologies, is examined using PwC's Mobile Technologies Index, a broad composite of seven enabling components that underlie the power of the mobile device to sense, analyse, store and connect information. http://pwc.to/13xNkQKTRANSCRIPT
Mobile Innovations Forecast Phase 1: Enabling Technologies
The evolution of mobility
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
What business opportunities will
result?
Where will the disruptions in mobile innovation arise over the next five years?
How will mobile devices change consumer and employee behaviour?
What can companies do to
take advantage of these disruptions?
How do they fit into broader market trends
now driving technology and other
industries?
PwC
What is it? A four part framework analysing mobile innovation quantitatively and qualitatively
3
August 2013
• Mobile Technology Index
• Device connectivity speed
• Infrastructure speed
• Processor speed
• Memory
• Storage
• Image sensor
• Display
• Mobile operating systems
• Wrapping up Phase 1
• Where will disruptions in
mobile innovation arise in
the next five years?
• How do they fit into broader
market trends now driving
technology and other
industries?
• What can companies
do to take advantage
of these disruptions?
• How will they change
consumer and
employee behaviour?
• What business
opportunities will result?
Released, click here • Q3 & Q4 2013 • Q1 & Q2 2014 • Q3 & Q4 2014
Phase 4
New business
models
Phase 3
New use cases
Phase 2
New
technological
capabilities
Phase 1
Enabling
technologies
PwC 4
August 2013
Mobile Technology Index
Memory: In Gigabits per dollar (Gb/$), will improve 48% CAGR.
Infrastructure speed: In average Megabits per second (Mbps), will improve 54% CAGR.
Storage: In GigaBytes per dollar (GB/$), will improve 35% CAGR.
Mobile Technologies
Index
Each of the 7 enabling technologies are considered in the Mobile Technologies Index
Device connectivity speed: In Megabits per second per dollar (Mbps/$), will improve 37% CAGR.
Processor speed: In GigaHertz per dollar (GHz/$), will improve 53% CAGR.
Image sensor: In Megapixels per dollar (MP/$), will improve 20% CAGR.
Display: In performance per dollar per square inch (P/$/in2), will improve 16% CAGR. (Performance is a weighted aggregation of resolution, brightness, power efficiency and other factors.)
Operating system: Is not included in the index because user experience testing is not widely conducted for mobile devices. Thus we provided qualitative analysis of OS.
PwC
What have we learned?
5
August 2013
Contextual awareness is the next big advancement for smart phones. Display and imaging are critical to sensing technology which is key to context-aware phones.
Updated through 2016
As published in July 2012
Of the seven components, display technology, imaging, infrastructure speed and application processors we predict will be most closely tied to innovation bursts.
Mobile Technologies Index Based on seven core enabling technologies
6 PwC
We forecast a combined compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36% between 2011 and 2016. The entire mobile ecosystem will undergo a complete refresh—dramatic new capabilities—every two years.
August 2013
PwC
• Average aggregated device connectivity speed will be four times greater in 2015.
• Device connectivity speed is one half of the wireless speed component. The other is infrastructure speed.
Device connectivity speed: One half of an equation
7
August 2013
PwC
Predicting the innovation surge
8
August 2013
PwC
Infrastructure speed: Watch capital investment in 4G for the next inflection
9
August 2013
The shift from 3G to 4G will launch another
innovation explosion
• 4G innovation may include more
and better streaming video, mobile video conference and VOIP services that rival wireline services.
• 4G innovation may benefit network operators and their business models the most, allowing them to reduce costs and deliver more consistent customer experience.
With a CAGR of 54%, PwC predicts that infrastructure speed will be the fastest improving component of the seven enabling technologies in the PwC Mobile Technologies Index through 2015.
PwC
Application processors will enable devices to approach 3GHz by 2015.
• Mobile devices will be able to utilise powerful multitasking operating systems, more immersive and natural user interfaces and more powerful graphics, including 3D.
• New use cases could include the ability to stream content wirelessly from a mobile device (smart phone or tablet) to a TV or computer screen.
Application processors: Driving the next wave of innovation
10
August 2013
PwC
Memory: The ever-predictable DRAM path
11
August 2013
As DRAM increases on mobile devices it enables a much broader set of uses due to expanded data capacity, high levels of computing power and the ability to process multiple tasks at one time.
PwC
Memory: The ever-predictable DRAM path
12
August 2013
Mobile Device DRAM Averages
New capabilities that are possible with increasing DRAM: • Real-time editing of digital video • Multiple HD video streams for video conferencing • 3D gaming • Increasingly powerful personal assistance technologies (e.g., Siri)
PwC
Storage: Quenching the thirst for more
13
August 2013
• New ultra high definition standards will need the additional flash storage. • Network infrastructure will be challenged to deliver the huge volumes of high
resolution video. • Cloud based storage will increase demand for more local storage.
NAND flash memory compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
PwC
Image sensor: steady growth for new capabilities
14
August 2013
• Through software manipulation and various MEMS devices, smart phones will continue to improve in image stabilisation, auto focus, zoom, light sensitivity, low-light performance, noise reduction and reduced power use.
• Future camera phones will offer 3D imaging.
20% Annual increase
(CAGR) in mobile image sensor
PwC
Display: enabling devices to offer users more natural interaction
15
August 2013
• The rate of improvement in the display CAGR is slowing, in part because the technologies are maturing.
• Nonetheless, PwC expects display performance and screen size to continue to increase during our forecast period, while the cost per square inch of panel will continue to decrease.
PwC
Low-cost display will still be in demand
16
August 2013
“The January 2013 Consumer Electronics Show convinced many
that Ultra HD is so good it is likely to drive the next replacement
cycle for higher performing display technologies. However, there
will also be demand for low-cost displays to support the next
2 billion mobile phone subscribers who will be coming from emerging markets like Africa and Asia. These markets will demand
low-cost, low-power displays that will be embedded in
phones costing 10-30 Euros.”
-Daniel Eckert,
Managing Director, Emerging Technologies PwC
PwC
Mobile operating system: Smart phones will just get smarter
17
August 2013
OS improvements come in qualitative enhancements: better security, multitasking capability, support for more media protocols, etc.
PwC
Patterns of innovation in the OS through 2016
18
August 2013
• The two layers likely to see the most enhancements over the next five years are the UI and core services layers.
• Through 2015, we expect more instructions to come automatically from sensors and the Web without human intervention.
PwC
Industry disruption is likely to accelerate
19
August 2013
As mobile devices engage with smart objects
without user intervention,
incorporate personal data stored in the cloud
and socialise commerce, the
interplay of market forces with internal industry disruption will accelerate.
PwC
Phase 1: The big take away
• Continuing advances in display technology, imaging, infrastructure speed and application processors (quad versus single-purpose strategy more than performance) appear more closely tied to mobile innovation bursts.
• The amount of data collected, stored, transmitted and recovered after analysis in the cloud continues to explode.
• The application processor must be robust enough to handle all the additional data harvested by sensors, without quickly draining the battery or burning the user’s hand.
• Infrastructure speeds will need to be robust enough to move data back and forth to the cloud because much of the contextual awareness capabilities will reside in the cloud.
• The OS will be the primary manager of all this stuff on and off the device going on in some sensing application.
20
August 2013
PwC
Realising what ‘can be’ is dependent on core components advancing rapidly
21
August 2013
UHD image sensors are moving faster to market than surrounding enabling technologies. App processors must handle the huge data stream harvested by these and other sensors without quickly draining the battery or burning the user’s hand. And infrastructure speed must be robust enough to move all the data back and forth. OS will be the primary manager of all this.
PwC
What is coming?
22
August 2013
• Mobile Technology Index
• Device connectivity speed
• Infrastructure speed
• Processor speed
• Memory
• Storage
• Image sensor
• Enabling devices
• Mobile operating systems
• Wrapping up Phase 1
• Where will disruptions in
mobile innovation arise in
the next five years?
• How do they fit into broader
market trends now driving
the technology and other
industries?
• What can companies
do to take advantage
of these disruptions?
• How will they change
consumer and
employee behaviour?
• What business
opportunities will result?
Released, click here • Q3 & Q4 2013 • Q1 & Q2 2014 • Q3 & Q4 2014
Phase 4
New business
models
Phase 3
New use cases
Phase 2
New
technological
capabilities
Phase 1
Enabling
technologies
In Phase 2 of the Mobile Innovations Forecast, we will explore contextual awareness in depth, and the enabling role of the OS. By contextual awareness we mean that a mobile device understands a user’s relationships to people, places, objects and information, and is able to infer certain needs, intents and goals of the user. Armed with this knowledge, a mobile device can meet a user’s needs and wants with minimal requirement for the user to state them explicitly.
PwC
Contact us
23
August 2013
Raman Chitkara Pierre-Alain Sur Global Technology Leader Phone: +1 408-817-3746 Email: [email protected]
Global Communications Leader Phone: +1 646-471-6973 Email: [email protected]
Mohamed Kande
Global Advisory Technology Leader Phone: +1 202-756-1700 Email: [email protected]
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