Modeling evidence for recent warming of the Arctic soil thermal regime

Christoph Oelke, Tingjun Zhang, and Mark Serrezecoelke@nsidc.org

October 27, 2003

Thermal Soil Model

• Finite difference, 1-D heat conduction with phase change (Goodrich, 1982)

• 3 major soil layers: 0 – 0.3 m, 0.3 – 0.8 m, 0.8 – 30 m

• 63 model nodes, resolution: 10 cm (near the surface) to 2 m (at 30 m depth)

• RIMS Arctic drainage area, 25 km x 25 km EASE Grid

• daily time step

• NCEP surface air temperature incl. topography correction• snow depth from SMMR andSSM/I SWE

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Region 1: surface temp.

1980–2002: 0.044 K/yr1994–2002: 0.142 K/yr

Region 1: 2-m temp.

1980–2002: 0.033 K/yr1994–2002: 0.113 K/yr

Continuous permafrost:

Soil surface temperature (a),2-m temperature (b)

for 4 seasons

Average temperature profiles, and trend profiles (1980-2002)

DJF MAM

JJA SON

Oelke, Zhang, & Serreze: Modeling evidence for recent warming of the Arctic soil thermal regime

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Arctic Drainage Basin: ALD

Oelke, Zhang, & Serreze: Modeling evidence for recent warming of the Arctic soil thermal regime

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ALD anomaly by river basin(cont. + disc. permafrost)

Oelke, Zhang, & Serreze: Modeling evidence for recent warming of the Arctic soil thermal regime

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Publications

Oelke, C., T. Zhang, M.C. Serreze, and R.L. Armstrong, Regional-scale modeling of soil freeze/thaw over the Arctic drainage basin, J. Geophys. Res., 108 (D10), 4314, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002722, 2003.

Oelke, C., and T. Zhang, Comparing thaw depths measured at CALM field sites to estimates from a medium-resolution hemispheric heat conduction model, 8th Intl. Conf. on Permafrost, Extended Abstracts, 2003.

Oelke, C., and T. Zhang, A model study of circum-Arctic soil temperatures, Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, submitted June 2003.

Oelke, C., T. Zhang, and M.C. Serreze, An Arctic active-layer climatology, 1980–2002, in prep.

Modeling evidence for recent warming of the Arctic soil thermal regime

Christoph Oelke, Tingjun Zhang, and Mark Serrezecoelke@nsidc.org

October 27, 2003