modeling for managed lane traffic and revenue forecasting model user groups/ncmug_2015-11-19...nov...
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Modeling for Managed Lane Traffic and Revenue Forecasting North Carolina Model Users Group 19 November 2015
CDM Smith
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Agenda
• General concepts of modeling for managed lanes
– Managed lanes vs. general tolls
• Managed Lane Model Development
– Modifications to the Travel Demand Model
– Replicating future year bottleneck conditions with microsimulation
• Forecasting revenue
– Static approximation of dynamic tolling
• Special considerations in managed lane modeling
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Managed Lane Modeling for Traffic and Revenue
• Adaptation of a standard regional Travel Demand Model
• Focused heavily on a single highway corridor (or network of corridors)
• Surrounding region is included to allow for alternative route diversion
CDM Smith’s Managed Lane Forecasting Model
• Built to forecast ‘typical’ traffic and revenue conditions
• Estimates typical tolls for model periods
• Hourly during peaks
• Period-wise during off peaks
Model Functionality
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Levels of Managed Lane Study
• High-level traffic and revenue estimates
• May use spreadsheet model as an alternative to a traditionsal TDM
Level 1 (Sketch Level)
• Employs travel demand model with volume and speed calibration
Level 2 (Planning Level)
• Requires independent economist to validate model growth
• Employs SP surveys to estimate model parameters (e.g. VOT, toll decision equation, eligible managed lane users)
• May require risk analysis or sensitivity testing
Level 3 (Investment Grade)
Covered in
Presentation
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General Toll Decision Model P = exp(b0 + b1x + b2x2 + … )
Toll Choice: • Cost A
• Time A
• Distance A
Free Choice: • Time B
• Distance B
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Managed Lane Choice Model
Free Path:
• Time (congestion)
Managed Lane Path:
• Toll Cost
• Time (freeflow)
Alternate Free Path
• Time (congestion)
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Land Use and Socioeconomic Input
from MPO
Socioeconomic Data Adjustments by
Independent Economists
Network Checks and Modifications
Calibrated Base Year Model
Control Data • Corridor (or alt
route) Counts • Screenline Counts • Speed Data
Future Year Model
Adjustments
Future Year Traffic and Revenue Model Runs
Transit Trip Tables
Highway Trip Tables
Trip Generation
Trip Distribution
Mode Choice
Model
Calibration Process
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
Value of Time and Vehicle Operating Cost
Calculation
Corridor Model Development
4-Step Model
Future Year Network Improvements
General Toll Modeling Process
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Operations Analysis (Microsimulation)
Land Use and Socioeconomic Input
from MPO
Socioeconomic Data Adjustments by
Independent Economists
Network Checks and Modifications
Calibrated Base Year Model
Control Data • Corridor (or alt
route) Counts • Screenline Counts • Speed Data
Future Year Model
Adjustments
Future Year Traffic and Revenue Model Runs
Transit Trip Tables
Highway Trip Tables
Trip Generation
Trip Distribution
Mode Choice
Model
Calibration Process
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
Value of Time and Vehicle Operating Cost
Calculation
Corridor Model Development
4-Step Model
Future Year Network Improvements
Base Year VISSIM
Calibration
Future Year VISSIM
Simulation
Skeleton Trip Table
Future Network Design
Base Year Corridor Design
Future Year Speed Flow Curves
Operational Network Adjustments
Managed Lane Modeling Process
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Managed Lane Sensitivity
• Well-Calibrated Travel times are critical on corridor
• Simulating and replicating bottleneck conditions is necessary
Corridor Speed
• Necessary to model a peaking condition
• Replicate queue building across periods Peak Hour Condition
• Dynamic pricing on managed lanes to maintain freeflow conditions Traffic Management
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Modifications for the Managed Lane Model: Refining Model Periods
Time of Day
Split Periods
Shifted Periods
Original Periods
AM1
AM2
AM3
AM4
AM5
MD1
PM1
PM2
PM3
New NT
New AM
New AM Shoulder
New MD
Original OP
Original AM
Original PM Sum of Mainline
Counts
New PM
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Modifications for the Managed Lane Model: Sub-Area Extraction
FROM 3,774 ZONES TO 1,621 ZONES
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Modifications for the Managed Lane Model: Sub-Area Extraction
Apply Growth to Calibrated Model
Base Year Trip
Table, Not Calibrated
Base Year Trip
Table, Calibrated to Regional Level
Base Year Sub-Area Trip Table, Extracted from
Regional TT (Not Calibrated)
Base year Sub-Area Trip Table, Fully Calibrated
Future Year Trip
Table, Not Calibrated
Future Year Trip Table, Calibrated to Regional Level
Future Year Sub-Area Trip Table, Extracted from
Regional TT (Not Calibrated)
Future year Sub-Area Trip Table, Fully Calibrated
Regional Calibration
Sub area extraction
Sub Area Calibration
Sub area extraction
Apply Growth to Calibrated Model
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Modifications for the Managed Lane Model: Replicating Bottleneck Conditions
Handled by TDM
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Calibrating Future Year Speeds
• Only accurate if travel patterns remain consistent across corridor and additional capacity does not create new bottlenecks
Naïve method (consistent with base year VDF)
• Load future year demand, calculate bottlenecks across time periods based on demand and capacity of new network
• Use several loading combinations to determine shape of speed flow curves
HCM analysis
• Build and calibrate base-year VISSIM network
• Create future year network and loading conditions on calibrated sim
• Load microsimulation for peak periods to determine new VDF curves
VISSIM analysis (most accurate method)
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Calibrating Future Year Speeds
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
T0/T
V/C Ratio
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Calibrating Future Year Speeds
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
T0/T
V/C Ratio
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
T0/T
V/C Ratio
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
T0/T
V/C Ratio
Calibrating Future Year Speeds
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
T0/T
V/C Ratio
Calibrating Future Year Speeds
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Calibrating Future Year Speeds
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
T0/T
V/C Ratio
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Vissim Model Development and Calibration Process
1. Data Collection for VISSIM Input
•Traffic Volumes
•Base Maps/Inventory
•Travel Time Surveys•Field Observations
2 Base Model Development
• Data input• Quality assurance of
available VISSIM network
3. Error Checking
• Review Inputs• Review Animation
4. Compare Model MOE’s to Field Data
• Volumes and Speed Match?• Congestion in the right
places?
YESModel Calibrated
NO
Adjust Global parameters
• Modify Global Parameters• Modify Link Parameter
5. Future Model Development
• Code Future Network• Input Forecasted Demand
Final Results
• Measure Model MOE’s• Generate Speed-Flow
Curves
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Sample Results from Vissim Load Sets Modified Speed-Flow Curves
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
T0/T
V/C Ratio
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Modifications for the Managed Lane Model: Modified Speed-Flow Curve Example
AM
To
Downtown Miami
WB
EB
Legend
Curve 2
Curve 4
Curve 85
Curve 87
Curve 89
Curve 91
Curve 93
Curve 95
Curve 97
Opa Locka Blvd/
NW 135th StNW 119th St
SR 112
NW 62nd St NW 81st St NW 103rd St
Hal llandale Beach
BlvdMiami Gardens DrGolden
Glades PNRNW 151st St
NW 95th StNW 69th St NW 125th St
Ives Dairy Rd Pembroke Rd Hol lywood Blvd Sheridan St Sti rl ing Rd
Gri ffin Rd Sunrise BlvdBroward BlvdDavie BlvdSR 84
I-595
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Static Approximation of Dynamic Tolling
• Given:
– Calibrated Base Year Model
– Modified future VDF curves for links
– Accurate coding of proposed future year managed lane configuration(s)
• We want to estimate how much revenue the managed lanes will generate
• Considerations:
– What optimization point will we use?
• Maximize traffic flow
• Optimize revenue
– Specific toll agency requirements (minimum toll, trip reconstruction)
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Typical Traffic Conditions
• Dynamic traffic pricing – will adjust automatically (or manually depending on toll agency) to retain near free-flow speed in managed lanes
• Model estimates are static (within standard TDM)
• Model itself represents a typical weekday traffic condition
– Interpretation of final traffic is that this would be the expected toll necessary to maintain traffic flow in lanes
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0 50 100 150 200
Re
ven
ue
(d
olla
rs)
Toll Rate (cents per mile)
Toll Sensitivity and Optimization Points
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0 50 100 150 200 250
Traf
fic
Toll Rate (cents per mile)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 50 100 150 200
Spe
ed
(m
ph
)
Toll Rate (cents per mile)
GP speed
ML Speed
Revenue
Optimal
Traffic
Optimal
• Maximize the revenue generated at a toll gantry or for multiple toll movements
Revenue Optimization
• Maximize the uncongested traffic in managed lanes
• 50 miles per hour minimum speed
• Achieved in the model through a maximum traffic threshold (typically about 1600 vplph)
Traffic Optimization
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Post-processing and Revenue Calculations
Run assignments to test rates for traffic
optimization
Extract point-to-point movements to pull
volumes for express lanes by period, vehicle
type
Import into revenue spreadsheet:
• Point-to-point traffic
• Toll matrix
• Share of toll by segment
Sum by time period/direction and
segment, ETC vs. Video
Apply leakage factors and annualization
factors to traffic and revenue
Interpolate between analysis years to estimate annual
revenues
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Special Considerations
• Multinomial/Nested Decision Structure
• Time Penalties
• Depends heavily on configuration of decision points
Multiple Decision Points
• Limit minimum volume on roadways
• Trip suppression/time of day shifting in outer years
Fully Constrained Sections (no alt
route)
• Strict calibration of microsimulation model
• Reconfiguration of access point design
Operations Analysis of Managed Lane
Access
• ‘Stress-testing’ model with specific input parameters
• Statistical simulation
Sensitivity Testing & Risk Analysis
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Important Considerations of Managed Lanes
• Managed lanes are fully dependent on growth
– Managed lanes to solve problems of reasonably congested GP lanes
• Will make gp lanes freeflow (in many cases) for opening years
– Managed lanes in extreme congestion must be carefully planned
• If complete breakdown of lanes (demand > C*1.4), access points may exacerbate queues
• Managed lanes should not be seen as a method for fully funding construction
– ML construction rarely breaks even in a typical roadway lifespan
• Most important model consideration is to benchmark forecasts against managed lanes that are currently operating