modeling overview iwmm technical team july 28, 2011

Modeling OverviewIWMM technical team

July 28, 2011

SHC Process at Several Linked Scales

Flyway Scale: Prioritization

Local Scale:Management

Regional (administrative) scale:Linking prioritization

and management

Regional / FlywayObjectives

Model

Regional Actions

Local MgmtObjectives

Model

Local Actions

Uncertainty

Uncertainty

Predict Observe

Local Mgmt

Regional / Flyway

Flyway to Region

• How is the flyway model used to inform regional guidance to local scale?

• Flyway Model analysis provides prioritization:– Relative Contribution of locale to flyway “fitness”

for each guild– Answers: How important is habitat quality at a

specific location for the entire migratory path?

Region to Local

• How does Region use flyway model output to guide local management decisions?

• Regional Allocation routine answers:– What guild(s) should refuge be managing for given

the landscape and location in the migratory flyway?

Local Scale

• How does local scale incorporate regional output to make efficient decisions?

• Local SDM routine determines:– Optimal management action chosen from a

discrete menu to maximize objective function given expected habitat response to each action

IWMM Process Flowchart

GIS Analysis Flyway Model

Local Scale Model

Monitoring Data

Regional Allocation

Model

GIS Analysis

• Create three layers at finest res (e.g. 30 meter)1. Roosting habitat layer2. Forage quality layer3. Disturbance layer

• Layers are integrated to create a summary at node scale (e.g. 20 mile)

Node Quality

RoostingChronic

Disturbance Forage


Local Scale Model

Monitoring Data

Regional Allocation

Model

Integrate GIS layersAtlantic Flyway – 30m Atlantic Flyway - Node


Local Scale Model

Monitoring Data

Regional Allocation

Model

Flyway Model

• Inputs– GIS maps of available

kcals, disturbance, daily gain

– Bird energetic parameters (flight cost, flight speed,…)

– Wintering and breeding sites to determine where birds “start” and “end”


Local Scale Model

Monitoring Data

Regional Allocation

Model

Trajectory of Flock

20 40

20

40

60

80

20 40

20

40

60

80

20 40

20

40

60

80

20 40

20

40

60

80

20 40

20

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80

20 40

20

40

60

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0

200

400

600

800

1000


Local Scale Model

Monitoring Data

Regional Allocation

Model

Regional Model

• Prioritization– Which guilds should each area (e.g. refuge)

manage for?– By guild, what locations are most important?– What changes can be expected?

• Protection• Acquisition• Habitat loss?

Linking Flyway to Regional Allocation

Nodes

Refuge

No Action

Low Management

Medium Management

High Management

6743050

6743100

6743150

6743200

6743250

6743300

6743350

Tota

l Fly

way

Bird

Use

Day

s

Management Effort

Determining management contribution1. Virtually improve habitat quality

(e.g. add kilocalories) at each site2. Re-run flyway model3. Compare overall flyway fitness

before and after management4. Identify sites with biggest gains5. Repeat with other guilds

Determining management contribution

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 500

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Local Scale Model

Monitoring Data

Regional Allocation

Model

1. Virtually improve habitat quality (e.g. add kilocalories) at each site

2. Re-run flyway model3. Compare overall flyway

fitness before and after management

4. Identify sites with biggest gains

5. Repeat with other guilds

Regional Allocation Model

• This information is passed to local scale model• G1 means guild 1 (e.g. dabblers)Refuge Name NodeID Objective

ACE Basin National Wildlife Refuge 336 Neither

ACE Basin National Wildlife Refuge 337 G1 refuge

Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge 592 G1 refuge

Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge 593 Neither




Objectives for Alligator River and Mattamuskeet NWR complexes

• Flyway and Regional models provide refuge specific guidance on objectives that take into flyway dynamics

• These objectives inform local decisions

Local Structured Decision Making

• More straightforward and is similar to many other local SDMs out there– Time scale: annual– State-and-transition model based on veg

monitoring metrics• Other data correlated?

– Objectives are received from region • what guilds are important

State DefinitionsSTATE % veg interspersion

1 <34% Low

2 <34% medium

3 <34% High

4 34-66% Low

5 34-66% Medium

6 34-66% High

7 >66% Low

8 >66% Medium

9 >66% High

Action Effect on %veg Effect on interspersion

Cost

Do Nothing None None Low

Late season draw down

Small probability of decreasing Increase, decrease, or no change

Medium

Early season draw down

Small probability of increasing Increase, decrease, or no change

High

Local Scale ResultsSTATE % veg interspersion Guild 1 only Guild 2 only Both Guilds

1 <34% Low Do Nothing Early DD Early DD

2 <34% medium Early DD Early DD Early DD

3 <34% High Do Nothing Early DD Do Nothing

4 34-66% Low Early DD Early DD Early DD

5 34-66% Medium Early DD Early DD Late DD

6 34-66% High Early DD Do Nothing Do Nothing

7 >66% Low Early DD Early DD Early DD

8 >66% Medium Do Nothing Early DD Late DD

9 >66% High Early DD Late DD Late DD

Local habitat monitoring

STATE % veg interspersion Guild 1 only Guild 2 only Both Guilds










STATE % veg interspersion Guild 1 only Guild 2 only Both Guilds










Linking Flyway and Region to local habitat monitoring

Wallkill River NWR Actions

Next Steps

• Continue work to link models to monitoring data– Models are likely to be tweaked as protocols change

• Sensitivity analysis• Include additional guilds (shorebirds)

• Work with decision-makers at:– Regional Scale (region, JVs, states)– Local Scale (refuge managers, etc)

modeling overview iwmm technical team july 28, 2011

Documents

flyway scale

management slide

flyway model analysis

flyway model output

regional model prioritization

migratory flyway

matlantic flyway node

action slide