modelling great lakes coastal wetland vegetation ... · modelling great lakes coastal wetland...
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Modelling Great Lakes Coastal Modelling Great Lakes Coastal Wetland Vegetation Communities Wetland Vegetation Communities
Response to Climate ChangeResponse to Climate Change
Andrea Andrea HebbHebb, Linda , Linda MortschMortschAdaptation and Impacts Research Group, Meteorological Service ofAdaptation and Impacts Research Group, Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment CanadaCanada, Environment Canada
Joel IngramJoel IngramCanadian Wildlife Service, Environment Canada Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment Canada -- Ontario RegionOntario Region
Peter Peter DeadmanDeadmanDepartment of Geography, University of WaterlooDepartment of Geography, University of Waterloo
HuronHuron--Erie Corridor/Lake St. Clair Research Needs Workshop 3.02 Erie Corridor/Lake St. Clair Research Needs Workshop 3.02 Windsor, Ontario Windsor, Ontario April 13, 2005April 13, 2005
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Great Lakes Coastal Wetland Communities: Vulnerabilities to ClimGreat Lakes Coastal Wetland Communities: Vulnerabilities to Climate Change ate Change and Response to Adaptation Strategies and Response to Adaptation Strategies -- Working Flow Diagram (Simplified)
WETLAND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
Adaptation StrategiesMarsh Dyking, Water Level Regulation,
Land Use Plans and Policies
Wetland Ecosystem Modelling
VEGETATION COMMUNITIES
BIRD COMMUNITIES
FISH COMMUNITIES
INTEGRATED VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTExplain Vulnerability, Document Implications for Ecosystem Remediation
and Protection, Assist in Developing Management Policy Instruments and Infrastructure Adaptation Strategies
Stakeholder Consultation
Stakeholder Consultation
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LAKE ERIELAKE ERIEDunnvilleDunnville (13 years)(13 years)Long Point (9)Long Point (9)RondeauRondeau (8)(8)Turkey Point (11)Turkey Point (11)
LAKE ONTARIOLAKE ONTARIOHay Bay (6 years)Hay Bay (6 years)LyndeLynde Creek (6)Creek (6)Presqu’ilePresqu’ile (8)(8)South Bay (6)South Bay (6)
LAKE HURONLAKE HURONBaie duBaie du DoreDore (7 years)(7 years)HowdenvaleHowdenvale (7)(7)OliphantOliphant (7)(7)
Wetland Study Sites
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MethodologyMethodology
Collect Collect and digitize and digitize wetland wetland classification maps classification maps into a Geographic Information System (GIS)into a Geographic Information System (GIS)Simplify the wetland classification schemeSimplify the wetland classification schemeQuantify and characterize spatial and temporal Quantify and characterize spatial and temporal changes in wetland vegetation over timechanges in wetland vegetation over time and in and in relation to water level conditionsrelation to water level conditionsSimulate wetland vegetation response to Simulate wetland vegetation response to historic and projected future water levelshistoric and projected future water levels
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Scanned MapScanned Map
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Scan Scan VectorizingVectorizing
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Final ProductFinal Product
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Vegetation ModellingVegetation Modelling
Construct topographic models models for each Construct topographic models models for each wetland sitewetland siteConstruct a ruleConstruct a rule--based vegetation community based vegetation community response modelresponse model
Consider water depth and duration of hydrologic Consider water depth and duration of hydrologic conditionconditionValidate with historical wetland dataValidate with historical wetland data
Apply climate change scenarios to model Apply climate change scenarios to model future vegetation responsefuture vegetation responseApply vegetation output as input for bird and Apply vegetation output as input for bird and fish fish modellingmodelling
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Topographic Topographic ModelsModels
Compiled using:Compiled using:Bathymetry DataBathymetry DataDigital Terrain Digital Terrain ModellingModelling (DTM) Points(DTM) PointsOntario Base Map Ontario Base Map (OBM) Spot & (OBM) Spot & ContoursContoursOcean Surveys Inc Ocean Surveys Inc (OSI) data(OSI) dataFlood Damage Flood Damage Reduction ProgramReduction Program
Generated a TIN then Generated a TIN then a LATTICE (linear a LATTICE (linear option)option)
Elevation (m IGLD85)
172-172.5
172.5-173
173-173.5
174-174.5
173.5-174
174.5-175
175-175.5
175.5-176
Rondeau
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Input Grids Input Grids –– Long PointLong Point
172-172.5
172.5-173
173-173.5
174-174.5
173.5-174
174.5-175
175-175.5
175.5-176
Elevation (m IGLD85)Elevation (m IGLD85)
> 176< 170 170-171
171-172
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Input Grids Input Grids –– Long Point, 1964 (Low)Long Point, 1964 (Low)
Water Depth (m)Water Depth (m)
Above 00-0.1
> 2 m 1-2 0.9-1
0.8-0.9
0.7-0.8
0.6-0.7
0.5-0.6
0.4-0.5
0.3-0.4
0.2-0.3
0.1-0.2
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Input Grids Input Grids –– Long Point, 1964 (Low)Long Point, 1964 (Low)
Duration of Hydrologic Condition (years)Duration of Hydrologic Condition (years)Dewatered Flooded
11-20
6-10
1-5
6-10
1-5
11-20
21-30
31-40
> 40> 40 31-40
21-30
0 0
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Current Year MatrixCurrent Year Matrix
W = WaterW = WaterEF = Emergent/Floating Mixed EF = Emergent/Floating Mixed E = EmergentE = EmergentM = Meadow MarshM = Meadow MarshT = Treed/ShrubT = Treed/Shrub
Vegetation Vegetation RulesRules
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Vegetation Vegetation RulesRules
Previous Year MatrixPrevious Year Matrix
Ex = Exposed SubstrateEx = Exposed SubstrateEF = Emergent/Floating Mixed EF = Emergent/Floating Mixed E = EmergentE = EmergentM = Meadow MarshM = Meadow MarshT = Treed/ShrubT = Treed/Shrub
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Model Results - LP, 1964 (Low)Actual
Modelled
Model ResultsModel ResultsSpatial accuracy: 81.0%Spatial accuracy: 81.0%Good success with water, emergentGood success with water, emergentModerate success with meadow, treedModerate success with meadow, treedNo floating; emergent, treed overestimated; No floating; emergent, treed overestimated; water underestimatedwater underesti
Wetland CommunitiesWetland CommunitiesWater
Exposed Substrate
Floating Emergent
Emergent
Meadow Marsh
Treed/Shrubmated
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Model Results - LP, 1978 (High)Actual
Modelled
Model ResultsModel ResultsSpatial accuracy: 87.5%Spatial accuracy: 87.5%Good success with water, emergentGood success with water, emergentModerate success with treed/shrubModerate success with treed/shrubNo floating or exposed; emergent, treed No floating or exposed; emergent, treed overestimated; meadow underestimated
Wetland CommunitiesWetland CommunitiesWater
Exposed Substrate
Floating Emergent
Emergent
Meadow Marsh
Treed/Shruboverestimated; meadow underestimated
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Lake Erie Water Level ScenariosLake Erie Water Level Scenarios
173.0
173.5
174.0
174.5
175.0
175.5
jan feb march april may june july aug sept oct nov dec
Month
Wat
er le
vel (
m)
Not as Warm&WetNot as Warm&DryWarm&WetWarm&Dry
Basis of Comparison (BOC)
MaximumMeanMinimum
Climate Change Scenarios
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Lake Erie (Long Point) Lake Erie (Long Point) “What“What--if” Scenarioif” Scenario
1.48 m1.48 m (IGLD85) (IGLD85) water level water level declinedeclineSurface area of Surface area of Inner Bay Inner Bay reduced by reduced by 32 %32 %Shoreline moves Shoreline moves from from 0.2 km to 0.2 km to greater than 2 greater than 2 kmkm
Source: Lee et al, 1994
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Projected Climate Change - LP, 1978 (High)
Historic Base Case
BC
Wetland CommunitiesWetland Communities
Water
Exposed Substrate
Floating Emergent
Emergent
Meadow Marsh
Treed/Shrub
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Projected Climate Change - LP, 1978 (High)
Not as Warm and Wet
BC NWW
Wetland CommunitiesWetland Communities Projected Change (Projected Change (--0.15 m)0.15 m)Increase in EmergentIncrease in EmergentDecrease in Water
Water
Exposed Substrate
Floating Emergent
Emergent
Meadow Marsh
Treed/Shrub
Decrease in Water
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Projected Climate Change - LP, 1978 (High)
Not as Warm and Dry
BC NWDNWW
Wetland CommunitiesWetland Communities Projected Change (Projected Change (--0.55 m)0.55 m)Increase Emergent, TreedIncrease Emergent, TreedDecrease in WaterDecrease in WaterLakewardLakeward MigrationMigration
Water
Exposed Substrate
Floating Emergent
Emergent
Meadow Marsh
Treed/Shrub
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Projected Climate Change - LP, 1978 (High)
Warm and Wet
BC WWNWDNWW
Wetland CommunitiesWetland Communities Projected Change (Projected Change (--0.67 m)0.67 m)Increase in Emergent, MeadowIncrease in Emergent, MeadowDecrease in Water
Water
Exposed Substrate
Floating Emergent
Emergent
Meadow Marsh
Treed/Shrub
Decrease in Water
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Projected Climate Change - LP, 1978 (High)
Warm and Dry
BC WWNWD WDNWW
Wetland CommunitiesWetland Communities Projected Change (Projected Change (--0.81 m)0.81 m)Increase Emergent, Treed VegetationIncrease Emergent, Treed VegetationDecrease in WaterDecrease in WaterLakewardLakeward MigrationMigration
Water
Exposed Substrate
Floating Emergent
Emergent
Meadow Marsh
Treed/Shrub
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Projected Climate Change - LP, 1964 (Low)
Historic Base Case
BC
Wetland CommunitiesWetland Communities
Water
Exposed Substrate
Floating Emergent
Emergent
Meadow Marsh
Treed/Shrub
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Projected Climate Change - LP, 1964 (Low)
Not as Warm and Wet
BC NWW
Wetland CommunitiesWetland Communities Projected Change (Projected Change (--0.15 m)0.15 m)Increase Meadow, Treed VegetationIncrease Meadow, Treed VegetationDecrease in WaterDecrease in Water
Water
Exposed Substrate
Floating Emergent
Emergent
Meadow Marsh
Treed/Shrub
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Projected Climate Change - LP, 1964 (Low)
Not as Warm and Dry
BC NWDNWW
Wetland CommunitiesWetland Communities Projected Change (Projected Change (--0.55 m)0.55 m)Increase in Meadow, TreedIncrease in Meadow, TreedDecrease in Water, EmergentDecrease in Water, EmergentLakewardLakeward migrationmigration
Water
Exposed Substrate
Floating Emergent
Emergent
Meadow Marsh
Treed/Shrub
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Projected Climate Change - LP, 1964 (Low)
Warm and Wet
BC WWNWDNWW
Wetland CommunitiesWetland Communities Projected Change (Projected Change (--0.67 m)0.67 m)Small Increase in Meadow, TreedSmall Increase in Meadow, TreedDecrease in Water, EmergentDecrease in Water, Emergent
Water
Exposed Substrate
Floating Emergent
Emergent
Meadow Marsh
Treed/Shrub
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Projected Climate Change - LP, 1964 (Low)
Warm and Dry
BC WWNWD WDNWW
Wetland CommunitiesWetland Communities Projected Change (Projected Change (--0.81 m)0.81 m)Increases in TreedIncreases in TreedDecrease in Water, Emergent, MeadowDecrease in Water, Emergent, MeadowLakewardLakeward MigrationMigration
Water
Exposed Substrate
Floating Emergent
Emergent
Meadow Marsh
Treed/Shrub
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ModellingModelling Problems and Problems and ConsiderationsConsiderations
Accurate elevation data is key! Accurate elevation data is key! Insufficient Insufficient nearshorenearshore datadata
Model accuracy varies depending on available Model accuracy varies depending on available elevation dataelevation dataTopographic model used to derive input gridsTopographic model used to derive input grids
Other considerationsOther considerationsNo additional variables included in model (i.e., No additional variables included in model (i.e., existing vegetation, soil/substrate)existing vegetation, soil/substrate)No rules for fen and No rules for fen and alvaralvar communities for Lake communities for Lake HuronHuron
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Missing Data Missing Data -- Turkey PointTurkey Point
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http://www.http://www.fesfes..uwaterloouwaterloo.ca/research/.ca/research/airgairg/wetlands/wetlands