modelling natural regeneration in mountain pine beetle affected stands a hybrid model approach derek...
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![Page 1: Modelling Natural Regeneration in Mountain Pine Beetle Affected Stands A Hybrid Model Approach Derek Sattler, M.Sc. Candidate Faculty of Forestry. University](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d0e5503460f949e4629/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Modelling Natural Regeneration in Mountain Pine Beetle Affected Stands
A Hybrid Model Approach
Derek Sattler,M.Sc. Candidate
Faculty of Forestry. University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
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Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB) Epidemic Lodgepole Pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia)
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Cumulative Volume Killed in All 'Pine' Units
0
250
500
750
1000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025year
tim
ber
vo
lum
e (1
0000
00's
of
m^
3)
Projected Kill
Observed Kill
Mil
lio
ns
of
m3
~ 80%
Dendroctonus ponderosae
Cumulative Volume Killed on the Timber Harvesting Landbase
Source: BC MoF, 2005
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Stand Dynamics Post-MPB Attack
Highly variable snag fall rates (5 – 15 years)
Expect to see small tree release
Changing light dynamics
15-20 year regeneration delay
Challenge to model regeneration Uncertainty in Yield Projections
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Candidate Growth Models:
1) SORTIE-ND Forest Ecology Model
2) PrognosisBC
Forest Management Tool
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Input data: tree list, site info
Small treesHt then DBH growth
Large TreesDBH then Ht growth
MortalityCompetition, dbh, etc
Change in Crown
Regeneration
results
Thinning
smoothing
PROGNOSISBC Model Flow
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Project Specific PrognosisBC Advantages
1) Calibrated using local data
2) Designed for complex, mixed stands
3) Includes Site factors – transportable
4) Government supported model
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PrognosisBC Project Disadvantages
1) Poor results with Regeneration Submodel
2) No Post-MPB specific Mortality Submodel
3) Not Spatially Explicit
(i.e., Clumped vs. Even distribution)
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SORTIEND Model Flow
Input data: tree list, location
Seedling/SaplingsDiameter then Ht
Large TreesDBH then Ht growth
Change crown size
Mortality
Regeneration
results
Light
Stem Map
Thinning
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SORTIE Project Specific Advantages:
1. Episodic Mortality Behaviour
2. One year cycles for simulated runs
3. Post-MPB specific snag fall down function
4. Light mediated model
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Project Specific Disadvantages:
1. Has not been calibrated for study area
2. Less precision in G & Y estimates
3. Over-simplified crown allometry
4. Used Less (?)
adbhCsCrownRadiu 1
bHeightCtCrownHeigh 2
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Hybrid Model (SORTIE + PrognosisBC)
Advantages of Hybrid Approach:
1) Natural Regen Following MPB – Dynamic- Process-based Model
2) Tree Growth through Empirical Model
3) Uses Existing Models
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Hybrid Model FlowSortie-ND
O/S + U/S tree list (from field data)
-
Time 1 (MPB attack)
Defined by ?
PrognosisBC
O/S + U/S tree list (from field data)
Sortie-ND
New O/S + U/S tree list following simulation
New Seedlings
PrognosisBC
New O/S+ U/S tree list following projection
Imputation from SORTIE
Time 2 (Post MPB attack)
PrognosisBC
O/S + U/S + New Seedlings projected in Prognosis
Regeneration submodel ‘off’
Time 3
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Preliminary Results
Tested SORTIE-ND using CFS data (R. Scott)
(1987, 2001) SORTIE behaviour selection:
O/S + U/S + Initial Mortality + Subsequent Mortality– Non-spatial Seed dispersal– Number of Seeds = f (Basal Area parent trees) – Proportional Seedling Establishment– Light dependent mortality
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Ht Class = 0.1-0.5cm
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Observed Stems Per Hectare
Pre
dic
ted
SP
H
Lodgepole PineOther ConifersDeciduous trees.
a)
Ht Class = 1.0-1.5
0
500
1000
1500
0 500 1000 1500
Observed Stems Per Hectare
Pre
dic
ted
SP
H
c)
Species 0.1-0.5 1.0-1.5 0.1-0.5 1.0-1.5Pine -3159 -154 3999 391Conifers -75 -7 270 16Deciduous 94 180 204 383
BIAS RMSE
n = 9 stands
Lodgepole PineOther ConifersDeciduous trees.
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Modifications to SORTIE-ND
1. Bath seed rain function
2. Height/DBH allometry
3. Light-dependent mortality
4. Crown allometry
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Crown allometry
Crown Ratio (CR):
Xe
aRC
1ˆ
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Crown Allometry Results
Pseudo – Rsquare
Model lnCCF H/D TPH H Slope Elevation
0.34 0.07 0.12 0.03 0.25 0.01 0.01
Standard Error of Estimate (SEE)
Model lnCCF H/D TPH H Slope Elevation
0.17 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.18 0.21 0.21
ElevationgSlopefSPHeCCFd
HtcDHbCR
ln
/0
11ln
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Next Steps for the Hybrid Model
1. Crown Width Model
2. Other SORTIE-ND parameter adjustments• Using new dataset
3. Identification of ‘Hand-off’ point
4. Efficient Linkage (SORTIE to Prognosis)
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Outstanding Questions
1. How to determine hand-off point between SORTIE-ND and PrognosisBC?
2. Does the Hybrid Model improve upon MSN results?
3. Does the Hybrid Model improve upon SORTIE alone, Prognosis alone?
• How to test this?
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Acknowledgments
Data For Preliminary Analyses:
Natural Resource Canada (Brad Hawkes) - MBPI
Funding:
British Columbia Forest Science Program
Supervisor:
Dr. Valerie LeMay
Committee Members:
Peter Marshall, Bruce Larson, Dave Coates
Preliminary Analysis: Prognosis Technical Support:
Robyn Scott Donald Robinson, ESSA