moldova national voter study - iri...iri baltic surveys / the gallup organization moldova national...

Moldova National Voter Study

International Republican Institute

Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization

August 20 – September 2, 2011

IRI Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization MOLDOVA NATIONAL STUDY, August 20 - September 2, 2011 2

METHODOLOGY

The national representative survey was carried out in August 20 – September 2, 2011.

The survey was conducted on behalf of International Republican Institute. The study was designed, coordinated and analyzed by Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization (Dr. R. Alisauskiene). The fieldwork was carried out by Magenta Consulting.

The sample design was a multi-stage random sample.

-Stage One: Break country into official administrative regions.

-Stage Two: Select clusters of sampling points based on settlement population. One sample point=approximately one percent of survey population. Sampling points in each region were selected based on the percentage of population living in various levels of settlement in that same region.

The sample consisted of 1,200 Moldovan residents aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative of the general population by age, gender and education.

Data is collected through face-to-face, in-home interviews with respondents. Random route method with the next birthday rule was used for the selection of respondents. Response rate was 57.4 percent.

The margin of error does not exceed +/- three percent.


MOOD OF THE COUNTRY


Generally speaking, do you think that things in Moldova are going

in the right direction or the wrong direction?

34

30

33

32

27

31

19

40

37

42

33

41

38

58

61

57

54

58

55

66

42

51

47

54

45

53

8

9

10

14

15

14

15

17

12

11

13

14

9

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

March-04

November-04

April-06

March-07

April-08

November-08

June-09

November-09

February-10

May-10

September-10

February-11

August-11

Right direction Wrong direction DK/NA


Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation in

Moldova changed?

3

5

3

4

2

2

1

2

2

2

5

3

5

23

26

24

24

13

20

9

8

11

14

18

25

23

37

37

36

32

30

30

22

34

24

30

28

27

34

25

22

27

27

29

28

42

39

38

30

26

22

17

9

6

5

10

20

15

20

10

21

19

17

18

18

3

4

5

4

6

5

5

7

4

5

6

5

3

0 20 40 60 80 100

March-04

November-04

April-06

March-07

April-08

November-08

June-09

November-09

February-10

May-10

September-10

February-11

August-11

Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot DK/NA


Over the last 12 months, how has the financial situation of

your household changed?

2

4

2

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

4

1

4

16

23

25

19

11

15

9

7

8

11

14

16

18

48

47

44

41

37

39

32

46

36

42

36

34

43

22

20

22

23

25

27

36

34

36

29

29

31

18

10

5

5

9

16

14

17

9

16

15

14

15

14

1

1

1

5

9

4

5

3

4

2

4

3

3

March - 04

November-04

April-06

March-07

April-08

November-08

June-09

November-09

February-10

May-10

September-10

February-11

August-11

Improved a lot Improved somewhat Remained the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot DK/NA


How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing

in Moldova?

2

2

1

5

2

2

1

3

4

2

5

3

5

24

26

25

21

17

21

16

27

22

27

23

29

25

44

44

43

41

41

42

41

37

37

40

41

36

39

17

14

14

18

24

20

25

20

27

21

24

21

22

13

14

17

15

16

15

17

14

10

10

8

10

9

0 20 40 60 80 100

March-04

November-04

April-06

March-07

April-08

November-08

June-09

November-09

February-10

May-10

September-10

February-11

August-11

Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied DK/NA


Are people in Moldova afraid to openly express

their political views?

27

25

23

28

29

26

30

30

30

25

31

25

34

27

31

32

27

27

28

29

32

27

25

27

30

31

25

25

26

20

22

24

19

22

24

24

19

22

18

16

14

14

15

14

16

13

10

14

17

17

18

10

4

5

5

10

8

6

9

6

5

8

6

5

7

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

March-04

November-04

April-06

March-07

April-08

November-08

June-09

November-09

February-10

May-10

September-10

February-11

August-11

Majority are afraid Many are afraid Some are afraid Nobody is afraid DK/NA


ISSUES


What are the main problems that Moldova is facing at the moment?

(Spontaneous, more than two percent)

32

19

18

17

17

17

16

12

6

6

5

4

4

4

4

3

2

2

Unemployment

Corruption

Low incomes

Poverty

Political crisis

High prices/Inflation

Election of the president

Poor roads

Emigration

Economic crisis

Inefficient public employees

Fighting crime

Expensive utilities/Housing

Economic development

Ecology

Education

Instability/Chaos

Lack of spirituality/Morality


What are the main problems that Moldova is facing at the moment?

(February 2011)


26

22

18

18

17

16

13

9

8

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

Unemployment

Corruption


Low incomes

Poverty

Political crisis

Economic crisis

Election of the president

Poor roads

Emigration

Economic development

Joining European Union/NATO


Inefficient public employees

Transnistrian conflict*

Instability/Chaos

Ecology

Low living standards

Rising crime

*Transnistria is a breakaway region on Moldova’s eastern border.


What are the main problems your town/village is facing at the moment?


38

26

14

9

6

6

5

5

5

5

5

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

Poor roads

Jobs/Unemployment

Environmental issues

Low incomes



No/Inefficient local authorities

Insufficient street lights

Transport problems

Water supply

Poverty

Corruption

Homeless dogs

Lack of rest places

Sanitation

Gas supply

Youth issues

Social assistance

Emigration

Agriculture

Lack of cultural centres

Repair of buildings/Schools


What are the main problems your town/village is facing at the moment?

(February 2011)


32

25

13

10

9

6

6

6

5

5

4

4

4

3

3

3

2

Poor roads

Jobs/Unemployment

Environmental issues


Low incomes

Corruption

Emigration


Transport problems

No/Inefficient local authorities

Insufficient street lights

Poverty

Agriculture

Gas supply

Water supply

Homeless dogs

Youth issues


What are the most important problems for you and your household members?


52

19

9

9

8

7

5

4

3

3

3

2

Financial problems/Low income

Jobs/Unemployment


Health problems

Emigration


Expensive/Poor medical services

Poverty

Family conflicts

Corruption

Difficulties obtaining living space

Bad social assistance


What are the most important problems for you and your household members?

(February 2011)


59

22

14

9

8

7

3

3

2

Financial problems/Low incomes

Jobs/Unemployment

High prices


Health problems

Emigration

Expensive/Poor medical services

Poverty

Poor housing conditions


Thinking about the current situation and future of your country,

what are you most afraid of?


12

8

7

6

6

6

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

2

2

Poverty

Emigration

War/Conflict

Increasing prices/Taxes

Communism returning

Economic crisis

Unemployment

Romanianization

Political instability

Corruption

Sovereignty/Threat to independence

Hunger/No drinking water

Natural disasters

Crime

Transnistrian conflict

Having no president

Children's future

Civil war/No peace/No unity

Low incomes

Degradation of the society


Thinking about the current situation and future of your country,

what are you most afraid of?

(February 2011)


16

9

8

7

7

5

5

5

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

Poverty

Hunger/No drinking water

Increasing prices/Taxes

War/Conflict

Emigration

Unemployment

Political instability

Instability/Chaos

Romanianization

Communism returning

Corruption

Economic crisis

Children's future

Civil war/No peace/No unity

Worsening financial situation

Natural disasters

Worsening economy

Diseases

IRI Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization MOLDOVA NATIONAL STUDY, August 20 - September 2, 2011 18 18

Is corruption a big problem in Moldova today?

72

66

64

60

62

61

58

53

57

59

61

24

25

26

25

27

31

33

37

31

33

29

2

3

2

5

4

3

4

4

4

3

3

0

0

0

0

1

0

2

1

1

1

1

2

5

8

10

6

5

3

5

7

4

6

0 20 40 60 80 100

November-04

March-06

March-07

April-08

November-08

November-09

February-10

May-10

September-10

February-11

August-11

It is a very big issue It is a big issue It is not a big issue It is not an issue at all DK/NA


POLITICS


How much interest do you have in politics?

41

48

46

49

45

46

35

39

36

41

41

36

40

31

28

26

29

29

31

30

30

31

29

26

29

30

27

23

25

21

25

22

34

30

32

28

32

34

29

2

1

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

2

1

1

1

0 20 40 60 80 100

March-04

November-04

April-06

March-07

April-08

November-08

June-09

November-09

February-10

May-10

September-10

February-11

August-11

Not interested Medium interest Interested DK/NA


INSTITUTIONS


How much confidence do you have in the following institutions?

62

58

55

55

53

49

49

48

47

46

44

44

44

42

38

37

37

37

35

34

29

30

32

34

36

35

33

37

42

47

36

32

51

52

54

56

44

44

44

54

57

62

8

10

11

9

12

18

14

10

6

18

24

4

4

4

6

19

18

18

11

9

9

Moldovan mitropoly

Bessarabian mitropoly

European Union

Moldovan mass media

Central bank

United Nations

United States

Army

Education system

Commonwealth of Independent States

Nongovernmental organizations

Moldovan government

Moldovan parliament

President's office

Healthcare system

Unions of businessmen

Trade unions

NATO

Courts of justice

Police authorities

Political parties

Favorable Unfavorable DK/NA


How much confidence do you have in the following institutions?

(February 2011)

69

67

64

58

56

54

53

51

51

50

50

49

48

48

48

44

43

42

41

34

34

33

16

19

18

23

25

20

22

25

38

17

32

41

32

41

42

29

29

49

31

51

57

55

14

14

18

19

19

26

24

24

11

33

18

10

20

11

9

27

28

9

28

15

9

12

Moldovan mitropoly

Moldovan mass media

Bessarabian mitropoly

European Union

Central bank

United Nations

Commonwealth of Independent States

United States

Education system

Nongovernmental organizations

Army

Moldovan parliament

Central Electoral Commission

President's office

Moldovan government

Unions of businessmen

Trade unions

Healthcare system

NATO

Political parties

Police authorities

Courts of justice

Favorable Unfavorable DK/NA


INTERNATIONAL

RELATIONS


How would you evaluate the current state of relations between Moldova

and the following entities?

69

69

60

59

58

9

11

12

14

9

18

14

16

20

29

4

5

12

7

4

0 20 40 60 80 100

Romania

European Union

United States

Ukraine

Russia

Good Neither/Nor Bad DK/NA


How would you evaluate the current state of relations between Moldova

and the following entities?

(February 2011)

68

67

56

53

50

12

16

17

19

14

13

9

15

10

30

7

8

12

18

6

0 20 40 60 80 100

Romania

European Union

Ukraine

United States

Russia

Good Neither/Nor Bad DK/NA


Which countries are the most important partners for Moldova? Which

countries are the greatest political and economic threats to Moldova?

72

66

62

49

45

5 3

16

35

22 20

24 22

14

European Union Russia Romania Ukraine United States DK/NA None

Partners Threats


Which countries are the most important partners for Moldova? Which

countries are the greatest political and economic threat to Moldova?

(February 2011)

68 67

52

48

42

4 6

17

29 30

14

19 19 19

European Union Russia Romania Ukraine United States None DK/NA

Partners Threats


What should Moldova do in the future?

64

53

45

39

28

32

39

45

8

15

16

16

Join the EuropeanUnion

Be an independentneutral state

Remain a member of theCommonwealth of

Independent States

Join NATO

Yes No DK/NA


What should Moldova do in the future?

(February 2011)

65

47

46

37

24

37

37

41

11

16

17

22

Join the EuropeanUnion

Remain a member of theCommonwealth of

Independent States

Be an independentneutral state

Join NATO

Yes No DK/NA


Do you think there is a political crisis in Moldova at the

moment or not?

Yes, there is 83%

No, there is not 10%

DK/NA 7%


Do you think adopting a new constitution in order to

overcome the constitutional/political crisis is a good

decision?

Yes 52%

No 28%

DK/NA 20%


There are several suggestions on how to elect a president of Moldova.

Do you support the following ideas or oppose them?

55

45

44

40

20

25

38

37

38

68

20

17

18

22

12

0 20 40 60 80 100

The political parties should work more diligently to find thevotes to elect a president under the current constitutional

framework

It is a constitutional necessity to elect a president, even if ittakes holding an early parliamentary election to do so

It is important to avoid having to hold an early parliamentaryelection as Moldova has had too many elections recently

Amending the constitution to find a method that will work toelect the president with the current parliament is better thanhaving to hold another early parliamentary election to do so

The country is getting along fine with an interim president,so it is not an important issue

Support Oppose DK/NA


Do you support or oppose the reunification of the

Republic of Moldova with Romania?

Fully support 11%

Somewhat support

20% Somewhat

oppose 16%

Strongly oppose 43%

DK/NA 10%


How often do you use the Internet?

18

17

18

13

15

12

6

6

5

5

5

2

7

8

5

8

7

4

6

5

6

7

6

6

14

12

11

13

12

12

45

51

51

52

48

59

4

1

3

2

6

4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

August-11

February-11

September-10

May-2010

February-10

November-09

Every day 5-6 days a week 3-4 days a week 1-2 days a week Less often Never DK/NA


Where do you access the Internet? (Internet users)

62

21

20

13

4

2

6

67

20

18

15

6

6

4

63

22

20

11

8

6

7

59

21

21

12

11

3

4

60

18

23

11

13

5

16

47

26

17

9

11

0.4

12

At home

At work

Friend's home

By phone

Internet café

Other

DK/NA

August-11

February-11

September-10

May-10

February-10

November-09


DEMOGRAPHICS


Male 44% Female

56%

Gender

18-29 29%

30-49 36%

50+ 35%

Age groups


Unfinished secondary 10%

Secondary 43%

Vocational 14%

Higher, incomplete higher 33%

Education

One 6%

Two 17% Three

32%

Four 30%

Five or more 15%

Household size


Private sector 29%

State sector 17%

Nongovernmental organization

1%

Don't work 53%

Sector of employment

Manager, director 3%

Specialist 10%

Technician 5%

White collar 4%

Services, trade 11%

Blue collar 7%

Unqualified worker 4%

Farmer 2% Student

8%

Retired 20%

Housewife 7% Unemployed

16%

Other 2%

No answer 1%

Occupation


Russian Orthodox 86%

Romanian Orthodox 11%

Other 1%

None/No answer 2%

Religion

Romanian 7%

Moldovan 82%

Gagauz 4%

Russian 2%

Bulgarian 2%

Ukrainian 2%

Other 1%

Ethnicity


Rural areas 61%

Towns 20%

Chisinau 19%

Settlement

MethodologyMood of the CountryIssuesPoliticsInstitutionsInternational RelationsDemographics

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