monetary economics guest lecture
TRANSCRIPT
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A Simple Macrodynamic Model
Stephen Kinsella
Dept. Economics, University of [email protected]
March 10, 2008
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Objectives
Introduction
The ModelThe Output MarketEquilibrium in the product and money markets
Examples
Aggregate supply
The Phillips curve
Dynamics of asset accumulationExpectations
I Lecture 1: Parts 1–3
I Lecture 2: Parts 3-6
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A Macro Model with Four Sectors
I The product market,
I The money market,
I The bond market,
I The labour market.
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Setup
GDP = C + I + G , (1)
GNP = C + I + G + (X −M). (2)
GDP = C + S + T . (3)
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The Output Market
Y = C + I + G (4)
(Caution)C = C (Y ). (5)
Y = C (Y ) + I + G . (6)
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Derivation
C = C (YD). (7)
C = C (YD,A, r). (8)
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A =M + PkB + PkK
P. (9)
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The Investment Function
I − I (r − π). (10)
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Put it all together
Y = C
(T − T , r − π,
M + B + PkK
P
)+ I (r − π) + G . (11)
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The IS Curve
Figure: The IS curve.
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Shifts in IS Curve
1. an increase the expected rate of inflation, or
2. a fall in the price of output, or
3. a rise in the stock of assets, or
4. an increase in the price of capital, or
5. a reduction in the level of taxes.
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Money Markets
MD
P= L
(Y ,−π, r − π, rk ,
M + B + PkK
P
)(12)
BD
P= J
(Y ,−π, r − π, rk ,
M + B + PkK
P
)(13)
PkK
P= N
(Y ,−π, r − π, rk ,
M + B + PkK
P
)(14)
MD + BD + PkKD
P=
M + B + PkK
P= A (15)
rk =P × R
(YK
)Pk
(16)
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Put this all together
M
P= L
[Y ,−π, r − π, rk ,
M + B
P+
RK
rk
](17)
B
PJ
[Y ,−π, r − π, rk ,
M + B
P+
RK
rk
](18)
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Edging towards LM
rk = r − π. (19)
M
P= L(Y , r ,A) (20)
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LM Curve
Figure: The LM Curve.
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Slot IS into LM to get
Y = Y (P;M,B,K , π, G ,T ). (21)
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Which looks like
Figure: Equilibrium in the IS-LM model
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[Bush’s fiscal stimulus]
Exercise
Consider a standard IS-LM model in equilibrium. Graphicallyanalyse the effects of a large increase in government expenditurefinanced through taxation on output/income and the interest rate,and briefly explain your reasoning.
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[The credit crunch]
Exercise
Consider a standard IS-LM model in equilibrium. Graphicallyanalyse the effects of a large decrease in the supply of money onoutput/income and the interest rate, and briefly explain yourreasoning.
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[Numerical example]
Exercise
Imagine a closed economy with equilibrium output given byY = C + I + G. Total supply is given by Y = 5, 000.Consumption is determined by C = 250 + 0.75(Y − T ).Investment is given by I = 1000− 50r . Initially, fix G and T atG = 1, 000,T = 1, 000. Suppose the government pursues anexpansionary policy, driving G from 1000 to 1250. What happensto national savings? Is there a deficit? How much of one? Will theinterest rate decrease or increase? By how much?
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Aggregate Supply
This aggregate production function relates the labour input L andthe level of the capital stock employed to the level of output in theeconomy.
Y = F (K , L). (22)
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Labour/Leisure Tradeoff
Σ = Pf (LD)− wL. (23)
W
P= θLD , (24)
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Household utility maximisers
max(Y , Le) (25)
subject toLe = Tot − LS , (26)
Y =W
PLS . (27)
LS = LD = L. (28)
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Household utility maximisers
W
P= θ(L) = φ(L). (29)
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[Lifetime earnings and the budget constraint]
Exercise
Jill earns 200 in period 1, and 50 in period two. Jill wants toconsume the same amount throughout her life. Without access toa credit market, Jill’s consumption stream is {200, 50}. With acredit market, Jill can consume 200+50/2 = 125 per period, soher consumption stream at {c1, c2}, which is {125, 125}. In reality,Jill would buy a bond or a treasury bill to achieve consumptionpatterns like this. What would her consumption set look like?
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The Phillips Curve
The Phillips curve relates changes in inflation to changes inunemployment.
p =P
P= α(Y − (Y )) + π (30)
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Govt. Budget Constraint; Growth theory
M + B = P[G − T ] + rB. (31)
K = I . (32)
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Expectations
π = γ(p − π). (33)
π = p. (34)
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Reading
1. Lecture notes
2. Readings on Jstor
3. Examples, etc, on www.stephenkinsella.net.