monetary policy report october 2012. low repo rate stimulates the swedish economy
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Financial markets fairly calm… Source: Reuters EcoWin Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity, per centTRANSCRIPT
Monetary Policy Report
October 2012
Low repo rate stimulates the Swedish economy
Financial markets fairly calm…
Source: Reuters EcoWinGovernment bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity, per cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
08 09 10 11 12
SpainItalyGermanySweden
…but there is still a long way to go
Underlying structural problems Problems in European banks Political decisions remain
At EU level At national level
Slow recovery in the euro area
GDP, annual percentage change Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, IMF and the
Riksbank
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
00 03 06 09 12 15
KIXBRICUSAEuro area
Weak demand for Swedish exports
Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data. The export market aims to measure demand for imports in the countries to which Sweden exports. This is calculated by aggregating the imports of 32 countries and covers around 85 per cent of the Swedish export market.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Swedish export marketSwedish exports
Households consuming at a relatively good pace
Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
06 08 10 12 14
Households' consumption
Mean 1981-
Swedish economy slowing down
GDP, quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
SeptemberOctober
Unemployment rising slightly
Unemployment, per cent of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
September
October
Low but rising inflation
Annual percentage change. CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CPIF
CPI
Low repo rate stimulates the economy
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
SeptemberOctober
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
90%75%50%OutcomeForecast
Forecast, not a promise
Stronger demand in Sweden
Problems in the euro area worsen
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank
Low repo rate stimulates the Swedish economy
Extra
Competition-weighted nominal exchange rate, TCW and KIX
Index, 18 November 1992 = 100. TCW and KIX refers to different aggregates of currencies on the basis of trading patterns. KIX weights are updated regularly and cover a larger group of countries. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages.
Source: The Riksbank
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
TCWKIX