mongolian economic outlook · 2012-02-20 · Хүний хөгжлийн индекс ......

NATIONAL

DEVELOPMENT

AND INNOVATION

COMMITTEE

www.ndic.gov.mn

MONGOLIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

By KHASHCHULUUN, NDIC chairman

NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND

INNOVATION COMMITTEE

CONTENT

Current situation of Mongolian development 1

Macroeconomic performance 2

Macroeconomic medium term outlook 3

Mid-term strategies and policies 4



3

1. CURRENT SITUATION OF

MONGOLIAN DEVELOPMENT



Current situation of Mongolian development

4

COMPARED TO REST OF THE WORLD

GDP per capita

Human development index

Global Competitiveness index

Quality of life indicator

• Mongolia is ranked in 100th from 169 world countries by Human development index in Human development report of UNDP

• According to research of “Living International” organization, Mongolia is ranked in 107th from 192 world countries by Quality of life indicator.

• According to the Global Competitive Index from World Economic Forum, Mongolia ascended to take 96th place from 142 countries in this year compared to 99th place from 139 countries.

• Mongolia is included in low-middle income country by World bank income classification.



5

GDP per capita



Quality of life indicator

• НҮБ-ын Хөгжлийн хөтөлбөрөөс хэвлэн гаргадаг Хүний хөгжлийн тайланд Монгол Улс хүний хөгжлийн индексээр Дэлхийн 169 орноос 100 дугаар байранд буюу дундаж гэсэн ангилалд байна.

• “International Living” байгууллагаас 192 улсыг хамруулсан судалгаагаар Монгол Улс амьдралын чанарын үзүүлэлтээрээ 107 дугаар байранд орсон байна.

• Дэлхийн эдийн засгийн форумаас хэвлэн гаргадаг Дэлхийн өрсөлдөх чадварын тайланд Монгол Улс дэлхийн 139 орноос 99 орж байсан бол энэ онд 142 орноос 96 орсон.

• Дэлхийн банкны орлогын ангиллаар Монгол Улс бага-дунд орлоготой орны ангилалд байна.

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Хүний

хөгжлийн

индекс

Эрүүл мэнд Боловсрол Орлого

0.622

0.748

0.674

0.447

Education Income Human

development

index

Health




6

GDP per capita



Quality of life index




• Дэлхийн банкны орлогын ангиллаар Монгол Улс бага-дунд орлоготой орны ангилалд байна.




7

GDP per capita



Quality of life index




Global Competitiveness index 2011-2012 rankings and

2010-2011 comparisons


MONGOLIAN COMPETITIVENESS INDEX 2010-2011 2011-2012

Number of countries 139 142

Indicator Rank Score Rank Score

Mongolian competitiveness classification 99 3.7 96 3.9

BASIC REQUIREMENTS 100 4.0 101 4.2

1st pillar Institutions 122 3.2 119 3.2

2nd pillar Infrastructure 117 2.6 118 2.7

3rd pillar Macroeconomic environment 49 4.9 34 5.4

4th pillar Health and primary education 98 5.2 98 5.4

EFFICIENCY ENHANCERS 109 3.5 105 3.6

5th pillar Higher education and training 89 3.8 84 3.9

6th pillar Good market efficiency 99 3.8 92 4.0

7th pillar Labor market efficiency 29 4.8 31 4.7

8th pillar Financial market development 129 3.1 129 3.2

9th pillar Technological readiness 105 3.0 102 3.1

10th pillar Market size 123 2.3 124 2.4

INNOVATION AND SOPHISTICATION FACTORS 119 3.0 112 3.0

11th pillar Business sophistication 127 3.1 119 3.2

12th pillar Innovation 100 2.8 102 2.8



8

General

infrastructure

Road Rail road Seaport* Air

transport

Electric

power

World average 4,30 4,00 3,20 4,30 4,70 4,50

G7 5,71 5,61 5,39 5,44 5,69 6,46

Central Asia 3,98 3,16 3,50 2,96 3,96 3,64

East Asia 5,74 5,60 5,80 5,44 5,52 6,30

South East Asia 4,48 4,44 3,24 4,54 5,04 4,63

South Asia 3,05 3,10 2,85 3,55 3,98 2,00

Mongolia 2,30 1,70 2,50 3,30 3,00 3,10

Source: World economic forum, World competitiveness report.

*- for Mongolia, Seaport means capability to reach ocean




9

Source: World bank, International Finance Corporation

Indicators Rank of

2010-2011

Rank of

2011-2012

Change

Starting a business 97 87 -10

Dealing with construction permits 119 121 2

getting energy 171 171 -

Registering property 26 26 -

Getting credit 67 75 8

Protecting investors 29 28 -1

Paying taxes 57 53 -4

Trading across borders 159 158 -1

Enforcing contract 33 34 1

Closing a business 124 125 1

General 89 86 3

Doing business report



10

Source: National Development and Innovation

committee

Meaning of Development index

Allocating investment and formulating development policy

are based on actual situation of provinces.

Rural development index



11

2. MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE



Main indicators of economic growth

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

GDP, billion MNT 4,027.6 4,956.6 6,555.6 6,590.6 8,414.5 10,829.7

Real economic growth 8.6 10.2 8.9 -1.3 6.4 17.3

Growth of mineral sector 5.3 1.1 -1.6 5.8 3.6 8.7

Growth of non mineral sector 9.4 12.6 11.3 -2.7 7.0 19.1

GDP per capita, USD 1324.2 1,619.5 2,108.3 1,688.1 2,264.4 3,073.0

12

Source: National Statistical office of Mongolia, National Development and Innovation Committee



13

Contribution of main sectors to GDP growth

10.7

5.7 5.2

8.6

6.6

11.2 11.3

10.2

14.5

10.8 10.5

8.9

-2.3

-1.3 -1.9

-1.3

8.2

7.0

8.8

6.4

9.9

14.3

16.7 17.3

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

I I-II I-III I-IV I I-II I-III I-IV I I-II I-III I-IV I I-II I-III I-IV I I-II I-III I-IV I I-II I-III I-IV

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*

ХАА Аж үйлдвэр, барилга

Үйлчилгээ Бүтээгдэхүүний цэвэр татвар

ДНБ

Service

GDP growth

Industry and construction

Net taxes on products

GDP growth

Economic Structure

Foreign trade

Inflation

Employment

State budget

Export Structure, by technology

Balance of payment

Money supply

Macroeconomic Performance

Agriculture



14

Эдийн засгийн бүтэц

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*

хөдөө аж ахуй

уул уурхай, олборлох үйлдвэр

боловсруулах үйлдвэр

цахилгаан эрчим хүч

барилга

бөөний болон жижиглэн худалдаа

тээвэр холбоо

үйлчилгээний бусад салбарууд

Mining and

quarrying

Manufacturing

industry

Electricity and

gas and steam

Construction

Wholesale and retail

sale

Transport and

communication

Agriculture

Other service

sector

GDP growth

Economic Structure

Foreign trade

Inflation

Employment

State budget


Balance of payment

Money supply




15

Гадаад худалдаа

-113

107

-114

-710

-252.3 -291.6

-1747

2241.2

2977.0

4009.3

5779.0

4023.1

6108.6

11307

2000.0

4000.0

6000.0

8000.0

10000.0

12000.0

-1800.0

-800.0

200.0

1200.0

2200.0

3200.0

4200.0

5200.0

6200.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Экспорт Импорт Гадаад худалдааны тэнцэл Нийт бараа эргэлт Export Import Balance of foreign trade Total turnover

GDP growth

Economic Structure

Foreign trade

Inflation

Employment

State budget


Balance of payment

Money supply




16

GDP growth

Economic Structure

Foreign trade

Inflation

Employment

State budget


Balance of payment

Money supply




2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*

Economically active

population /in thousand

people/

1042.8 1054.0 1071.5 1137.9 1147.1 1274.7

Labor force participation

/percent/

64.4 64.2 63.5 66.8 61.6 64

Level of employment 62.4 62.4 61.7 88.4 90.1 92.3

Registered unemployed 3.2 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.3 2.8

Unemployment rate /by

survey/

- - - 11.6 9.9 7.7

17

Ажил эрхлэлт

GDP growth

Economic Structure

Foreign trade

Inflation

Employment

State budget


Balance of payment

Money supply




18

Төсвийн тэнцэл

73.3

123.4 133.2

-296.4

-342.6

41.8

-632.4

37.0 36.6

34.4 35.4

31.7

43.5

38.4

33.7 33.3 32.0

40.2

37.1

43.0 44.2

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

-700.0

-600.0

-500.0

-400.0

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Нийт тэнцэл /тэрбум төгрөг/

Төсвийн тэнцвэржүүлсэн орлого ба тусламж /ДНБ-д эзлэх хувь/

Нийт зарлага ба цэвэр зээл /ДНБ-д эзлэх хувь/

Budget equilibrated revenue and grant (share of GDP)

Total expenditure and net lending (share of GDP)

Overall balance (billion MNT)

GDP growth

Economic Structure

Foreign trade

Inflation

Employment

State budget


Balance of payment

Money supply




19

Экспортын бүтэц

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

60% 68%

62% 69%

83% 90%

37% 28%

35% 29%

15% 9%

Resource-based exports Low-technology exports

Medium-low technology exports Medium-high technology exports

High-technology exports

GDP growth

Economic Structure

Foreign trade

Inflation

Employment

State budget


Balance of payment

Money supply




20

Төлбөрийн тэнцэл /сая ам.доллар/

134.5 389.3 288.0

-232.6

555.5

873.1

33.7

-3000.0

-2000.0

-1000.0

0.0

1000.0

2000.0

3000.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Урсгал тэнцэл Хөрөнгө санхүү тэнцэл

Алдаа орхигдуулга Төлбөрийн тэнцэл

Balance of Payment /million USD/

Current account

Error and omissions Balance of Payment

Capital account

GDP growth

Economic Structure

Foreign trade

Inflation

Employment

State budget


Balance of payment

Money supply




21

Money supply

1,536.5

2,401.2 2,270.0

2,880.0

4,680.0

6,412.3

-

1,000.0

2,000.0

3,000.0

4,000.0

5,000.0

6,000.0

7,000.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

банкнаас гадуурх мөнгө төгрөгийн харилцах

төгрөгийн хадгаламж гадаад валютын хадгаламж

гадаад валютын харилцах мөнгөний нийлүүлэлт /тэрбум төгрөг/

Deposit in domestic currency

Bank account in domestic currency

Bank account in foreign

currency

Deposit in foreign currency

Money supply

Currency outside banks

GDP growth

Economic Structure

Foreign trade

Inflation

Employment

State budget


Balance of payment

Money supply




22

3. MACROECONOMIC MEDIUM TERM

OUTLOOK



23

GDP, budget revenue

GDP per capita, USD

Economic Structure

Inflation

State Budget

Foreign Trade Balance

Balance of Payment

Net Official Reserve

Macroeconomic Medium Term Outlook

GDP, billion MNT

0.0

5000.0

10000.0

15000.0

20000.0

25000.0

30000.0

35000.0

40000.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012** 2013** 2014** 2015** 2016**

ДНБ төсвийн тэнцвэржүүлсэн орлого ба тусламж GDP Budget equalization revenue and grants



24

3070

5047 5649

7204

8764

11290

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2011* 2012** 2013** 2014** 2015** 2016**

GDP per capita, USD

Нэг хүнд ногдох ДНБ, ам.доллар Эдийн засгийн бодит өсөлт, хувь GDP per capita, USD GDP real growth, percent


GDP, budget revenue

GDP per capita, USD

Economic Structure

Inflation

State Budget


Balance of Payment




25

Economic structure

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

үйлчилгээний бусад салбарууд тээвэр холбоо

бөөний болон жижиглэн худалдаа барилга

цахилгаан эрчим хүч боловсруулах үйлдвэр

уул уурхай, олборлох үйлдвэр хөдөө аж ахуй

Other sectors of service

Electricity and energy

Wholesale and retail trade

Mining and exploration industry Agriculture


Transport and communication

Construction

Manufacturing industry

GDP, budget revenue

GDP per capita, USD

Economic Structure

Inflation

State Budget


Balance of Payment




26

-20.00

-10.00

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

20

06

m1

2

20

07

m3

20

07

m6

20

07

m9

20

07

m1

2

20

08

m3

20

08

m6

20

08

m9

20

08

m1

2

20

09

m3

20

09

m6

20

09

m9

20

09

m1

2

20

10

m3

20

10

m6

20

10

m9

20

10

m1

2

20

11

m3

20

11

m6

20

11

m9

20

11

m1

2

20

12

m3

20

12

m6

20

12

m9

20

12

m1

2

20

13

m3

20

13

m6

20

13

m9

20

13

m1

2

20

14

m3

20

14

m6

20

14

m9

20

14

m1

2

инфляци (жилийн өөрчлөлт, хувь)

хүнсний инфляци

хүнсний бус инфляци

суурь инфляци (хүнс, шатахууны бүлгийг хасч тооцсон)

жилийн дундаж инфляци (хувь) Core inflation (food and oil excluded)

Annual average inflation

Inflation


Inflation, annual change, percent

Food inflation

Non-food inflation

GDP, budget revenue

GDP per capita, USD

Economic Structure

Inflation

State Budget


Balance of Payment




27

Budget balance

-632.4

-483.8

-328.6

-394.4

0 0

-5.8

-3.0

-1.5 -1.5

0.0 0.0

-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Нийт тэнцэл тэрбум төгрөгөөр Нийт тэнцэл ДНБ-д эзлэх хувиар Overall balance, billion MNT Overall balance share in GDP


GDP, budget revenue

GDP per capita, USD

Economic Structure

Inflation

State Budget


Balance of Payment




28

Foreign trade balance

4780

6958

11223

14232

15389

16428

-1747 -811

2788

4255

3512

2771

9000

14000

19000

24000

29000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2011** 2012** 2013** 2014** 2015** 2016**

Экспорт Импорт Гадаад худалдааны тэнцэл Нийт бараа эргэлт


Export Import Foreign trade balance Total turnover

GDP, budget revenue

GDP per capita, USD

Economic Structure

Inflation

State Budget


Balance of Payment




29


33.7

502.3

1361.7

2632.8

1139.8

132.8

-3,000.0

-2,000.0

-1,000.0

0.0

1,000.0

2,000.0

3,000.0

2011* 2012** 2013** 2014** 2015** 2016**

Урсгал тэнцэл Хөрөнгө санхүү тэнцэл

Алдаа орхигдуулга Төлбөрийн тэнцэл

Balance of payment (million USD)

Current account

Error and omissions

Capital account

Balance of Payment

GDP, budget revenue

GDP per capita, USD

Economic Structure

Inflation

State Budget


Balance of Payment




30


0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

0.00

1000.00

2000.00

3000.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00

7000.00

8000.00

9000.00

2011* 2012** 2013** 2014** 2015** 2016**

Цэвэр албан нөөц, хугацааны эцэст /зүүн тэнхлэг/

Импортын 7 хоногоор, СИФ /баруун тэнхлэг/

Net official reserve, end of year (left hand side)

Net official reserve, by Import week (right hand side)

GDP, budget revenue

GDP per capita, USD

Economic Structure

Inflation

State Budget


Balance of Payment




31

4. MID-TERM POLICIES AND STRATEGIES



MDGs based Comprehensive

National development

Strategy

“mid-term priorities for 2012-2016”

draft

Socio-economic guideline

Programs and Projects which Approved by Parliament or Government

Required actions to solve socio-

economic problems based on last years economic analysis

32

Development policy

• Economic and social development policy for the mid-term is planned in the range of these documents.

MID-TERM POLICIES AND STRATEGIES



Mid-term goal is to improve life quality and living standards

33

Income

Environment

Health

Infrastructure

Education

Participation

Art and culture

Governance, legal

environment

Gender

Living

standards

Economy and market

MID-TERM POLICIES AND STRATEGIES



34

Strategy. To increase population and improve safe, comfort environment and

condition to live.

Strategy. To improve quality and scope of public services

Strategy. To build capacity of human resource and support employment

Strategy. To decrease environment pollution and deterioration

TO ESTABLISH SAFE ENVIRONMENT FOR POPULATION TO WORK AND TO LIVE.



35

Strategy. To renovate state and administration

Strategy. To develop economic regions

Strategy. To support development of private sector and develop

Public Private Partnership

TO IMPROVE GOVERNANCE AND DEVELOP ECONOMIC REGIONS



36

Strategy. To circulate large mining fields in the economy.

Strategy. To establish heavy industry

Strategy. To shape mining responsible

TO DEVELOP RESPONSIBLE MINING AND ESTABLISH HEAVY INDUSTRY.



37

Strategy. Develop manufacturing industry and service cluster.

Strategy. To establish development of high tech industry and park.

Strategy. To provide construction’s widely used materials from domestic

production.

Strategy. To develop intensive livestock husbandry and agriculture.

TO IMPROVE COMPETITIVE CAPACITY OF MANUFACTURING SECTOR AND DEVELOP

INTENSIVE LIVESTOCK HUSBANDRY.



Strategy. To supply safe fuel and energy source to the strategic mining fields and industry

complex and build national energy integrated system.

Strategy. To develop production and service of the information technology.

Strategy. To operate the strategic mining fields and industry complexes in economy and

build road and transport infrastructure to support development of regions.

Strategy. To supply safe water source to the strategic mining fields, industry complexes,

newly build large city and town.

TO DEVELOP INFRASTRUCTURE WHICH SUPPORTS ECONOMIC GROWTH.

NATIONAL

DEVELOPMENT

AND INNOVATION

COMMITTEE

www.ndic.gov.mn

National Development and Innovation Committee

Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar 15160

United Nations street 5/1

Government Office II, А corpus

Tel: (976) 51-265912 Fax: (976) 11-327914

Website: www.ndic.gov.mn, e-mail: [email protected]

http://www.mik.mn/

mailto:[email protected]

mongolian economic outlook · 2012-02-20 · Хүний хөгжлийн индекс ......

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