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MONITORING FUGITIVE METHANE
FROM LARGE SCALE SHALE GAS
OPERATIONS IN EUROPE
Results of Sub Project 3 “Impact on air quality and global climate” of the M4ShaleGas project
Antoon Visschedijk
Hugo Denier van der Gon
Mara Hauck
Richard Kranenburg
Arjo Segers
AMBITION: IDENTIFY HIGH LEAKAGE FROM
SHALE GAS PRODUCTION INDEPENDENTLY,
USING AIR QUALITY MEASUREMENTS AND
CHEMICAL TRANSPORT MODELLING
Presentation outline:
• Preparation phase;
• Reserves
• Production scenarios
• Tracer for Shale Gas leakage emission
• Tracer emission scenarios
• Modelling
• Testing phase
• Production phase
• Analysis phase
• Conclusions & outlook
2 | Monitoring Fugitive Methane from Large Scale Shale Gas Operations in Europe
PREPARATION PHASE; SG PLAYS
Identification of most promising shale gas plays in Europe
• Mostly based on US EIA (2015)1) and TNO information
3 | Monitoring Fugitive Methane from Large Scale Shale Gas Operations in Europe
Compare US: 25 Tcm 1) “Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources” publication series;
US Energy Information Administration (EIA)
ID Country Play Risk Recov. Res. (Tcm)
6 GBR Bowland Basin 0.71
2 POL Lublin Basin 0.26
4 POL Podlasie Basin 0.14 (Dry); 0.12 (Wet)
13 POL Baltic Basin 2.3 (Dry); 0.61 (Wet)
11 NLD Posidonia Shale 0.093
3; 5; 9 NLD Geverik/Epen 0.26
7; 14 DNK Alum Shale 0.90
15 SWE Alum Shale 0.28
12 DEU Posidonia Shale 0.48
8 FRA Paris Basin 2.0
PREPARATION PHASE; ESTIMATED
PRODUCTION BY PLAY
Considerations for a production scenario:
• If Netherlands and UK use shale gas instead of conventional natural gas,
own reserves would last 10 years (France 100 years)
• Technical lifetime of the infrastructure 20-30 years
• Replacing projected EU coal-based electricity generating capacity by
shale gas, reserves would last 70 years (60 years for gas-based)
• IASS (L. Cremonese): Drilling rate under current economic conditions
would exhaust reserves in 100 years in Germany
Assumed production window between 30 and 150 years for all plays (3 cases: 30, 70 and 150 years)
4 | Monitoring Fugitive Methane from Large Scale Shale Gas Operations in Europe
PREPARATION PHASE; A TRACER FOR
LEAKAGE EMISSION FROM SHALE GAS
Need tracer component for SG emissions, as methane has too many other sources
• In the US and globally ethane (C2H6) is used to track HC leakage from oil
and gas production (e.g. Schwietzke et al. 20142))
• Ethane is cheap to measure and always present in natural gas but
concentrations may vary 2 orders of magnitude (e.g. 0.2% to 20+%)
• Ethane content varies with Thermal Maturity, %R0 (e.g. Berner 19893)), a
basic reservoir characteristic
2) ”Natural Gas Fugitive Emissions Rates Constrained by Global Atmospheric Methane and Ethane”,
ES&T 48 (14) 3) ”Entwicklung und Anwendung empirischer Modelle für die Isotopenvariationen in Mischungen
thermogener Erdgase, Ph.D. thesis, Techn. Univ. Clausthal
PREPARATION PHASE; VARIATION IN
TRACER CONCENTRATION IN SG
TNO Analysis of 2000+ European natural gas composition
data: Observed ethane (C2H6) content and thermal maturity
6 | Monitoring Fugitive Methane from Large Scale Shale Gas Operations in Europe
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0.001 0.01 0.1 1
Ob
serv
atio
n C
ou
nt
(-)
Ethane to methane ratio (-)
WET GASDRY GAS
%Ro ≈ 1.3
%Ro < 1.2
%Ro > 1.5
PREPARATION PHASE; ESTIMATED
ETHANE EMISSIONS BY PLAY
Thermal maturity SG plays varies from 0.5 – 1.8, corresponding
to a C2 to C1 ratio of 1.5 – 10%, assuming NG = SG
Overall gas leakage rates observed in the US vary from 0.2 to
10% of the produced amount (= assumed range in scenarios)
7 | Monitoring Fugitive Methane from Large Scale Shale Gas Operations in Europe
Country Play
Known
average %R0
Est. C2/C1
ratio
Est.
prod.
(Bcm/y)
C2H6 emission
0.2 - 5% leak.
(kt/y)
GBR Bowland Basin 1.3 0.04 5 - 24 0.3 - 76
POL Lublin Basin 1.35 0.04 0.1 - 28
POL Podlasie Basin 1.8; 1.15 0.015; 0.1 0.2 - 42
POL Baltic Basin 1.8; 1.15 0.015; 0.1 1.1 - 270
NLD Posidonia Shale 0.5 - 1.2 0.1 0.1 - 28
NLD Geverik/Epen 2 0.015 0.04 - 9
DNK Alum Shale 2 0.015 6 - 30 0.1 - 31
SWE Alum Shale 2 0.015 2 - 9 0.04 - 10
DEU Posidonia Shale >1.5 0.015 3 - 16 0.07 - 17
FRA Paris Basin 1.3; 0.85 - 1.15 0.04; 0.1 23 - 116 2.7 - 660
23 - 116
2 - 12
PREPARATION PHASE; SG LEAKAGE
COMPARED TO OTHER ETHANE SOURCES
Figure: estimated range in ethane (C2H6) from SG (5 – 1200 Kt), compared
with current ethane sources (total 293 Kt, TNO MACC3 database)
Medium prod. scenario: SG should be noticable at 2% leakage (~100 Kt)
and dominate at 5+% (~300 Kt); Max. 1200 Kt is High scen. at 10% leak.
8 | Monitoring Fugitive Methane from Large Scale Shale Gas Operations in Europe
68 90 80 24 32 5
1200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
EMIS
SIO
N (
KTO
N)
Scenario range in C2H6
emissions from shale gas
INTRODUCING THE LOTOS-EUROS
CHEMISTRY TRANSPORT MODEL
9 | Monitoring Fugitive Methane from Large Scale Shale Gas Operations in Europe
LOTOS-EUROS CTM CAN MODEL SPATIAL CONCENTRATIONS
OF SUBSTANCES, BASED ON E.G. EMISSION DATA
Processes:
Chemistry
Transport
Dry deposition
Wet deposition
Boundary conditions
Initial conditions
Landuse
Emissions
Meteorology
> 200 modules
Ethane (C2H6) is transported by winds, mixed vertically and
simultaneously broken down by reaction with hydroxyl radicals
Implementation Carbon Bond (CB05) mechanism in LOTOS
EUROS , which keeps ethane a separate substance in the
atmospheric chemical reaction scheme
LOTOS EUROS run in Labelling Mode, keeping track of source
contributions to ethane concentrations (Shale gas sources,
Other ethane sources and Boundary influx)
What are the ethane boundary concentrations?
Literature: ethane has an average lifetime of 2 months (relatively
long, which has important implications as we will see)
10 | Monitoring Fugitive Methane from Large Scale Shale Gas Operations in Europe
PREPARATION PHASE: SETTING UP THE
LOTOS-EUROS CTM FOR ETHANE
CONCENTRATION MODELLING
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MEASURED ETHANE BACKGROUND
CONCENTRATIONS AT DIFFERENT
EUROPEAN AIR QUALITY
MONITORING
STATIONS (EBAS)
• Similar with strong
seasonal pattern
• Little trend over ‘88 – ‘14
S. England
Spitsbergen
Switzerland +3000m
Type of signal we
would like to see
for SG
TESTING PHASE: LOTOS-EUROS BASELINE
RUN (NO SG EMISSIONS YET)
If run w/o boundary conditions L-E predicts severely impacted average
ethane concentrations in the whole domain (mainly because of its long
lifetime) but way lower than observations
Ethane’s long lifetime also results however in significant boundary
concentrations (both at the area boundaries and the top)
Boundary concentrations will be based on daily observed
concentrations at remote locations with no local sources
12 | Monitoring Fugitive Methane from Large Scale Shale Gas Operations in Europe
Ethane rural background
obs. at Auchencorth, Central
Scotland (blue line),
compared to the L-E
baseline results (red line)
Note the similar seasonal
pattern in both data and
measurement peaks of 2-3
times the average
L-E baseline results 2012
GB0048R
PRODUCTION PHASE: L-E WITH SG ADDED
(HIGH PROD. SCEN., 5% LEAKAGE, 600 KT)
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EXISTING ATMOSPHERIC MONITORING
SITES AND SG FIELDS
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Prevailing
wind
direction
Selected monitoring
stations:
• FR0008R (France)
• DE0002R (Germany)
• PL0005R (Poland)
ANALYSIS PHASE: MODELLED SG
CONTRIBUTIONS FOR SELECTED SITES
Modelled contributions to total ethane concentration, averaged over the
periods Jan-Mar, Apr-Jun, Jul-Sep and Oct-Dec
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FR0008R PL0005R
DE0002R * Even for the high emission
scenario and closest
monitoring sites, the average
SG contribution never
exceeds 30%
* At almost all sites far lower
contributions are found
ANALYSIS PHASE: EXTENT OF INFLUENCE OF
THE SG PLAYS (HIGH PROD., 5% LEAK., 600 KT)
16 | Monitoring Fugitive Methane from Large Scale Shale Gas Operations in Europe
• Yearly average contribution
• Outside SG field influence
quickly drops, especially for
smaller plays
• In reality emission is not
homogeneously distributed
over the play area
• 10-30% contribution may be
too low to be detected as
significant elevation of
concentration
CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK
Due to its relatively long lifetime ethane (C2H6) has a significant
background concentration with boundary influx being of major influence
Our current set-up of monitoring in Europe with very limited ethane data
and an AQ/CT model can provide the baseline for monitoring
However, current set-up is insufficient to conclusively identify even high
leakage rates [impact on ethane background levels seems too low]
To monitor independently, new (perhaps mobile) stations will have to be
installed preferably located between 5 and 20 km downwind of SG
exploration and production activities. [not costly compared to O&G
investments and revenues]
To predict tracer concentrations close to the source a plume model could
be used
Selecting a different tracer (e.g. stable C and H isotopes in methane)
would not have made the detection of SG leakage easier
17 | Monitoring Fugitive Methane from Large Scale Shale Gas Operations in Europe
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
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